Did Humans Cause the Global Warming - Research Paper Example

Running head: RESEARCH PAPER Research Paper THESIS. The current state of research about global warming does not confirm the link between warming and human activity and implies that years will pass before we have a better understanding of global warming causes and, if necessary, solutions. I. Statistical information supports the belief that the average temperatures on the planet are rising. A. Global surface temperature has been rising at 0.56 K/ century. 1. Global surface temperature 2. Temperatures at the New York and Paris latitudes. B. Arctic ices are melting. 1. Air temperatures in the Arctic land 2. Temperatures in Alaska. C. The number of hurricanes and their severity has reached unbelievable highs. 1. Windstorms and hurricanes. 2. Intense rainfalls. II. More and more scientists assert that global warming has nothing to do with global warming. A. Computer modeling does explain the causes of global warming. 1. Statistical computer models. 2. Dynamic computer models. B. Global warming is just another stage in the global Earth cycle. 1. 1,500 year cycles. 2. The planet continuously warms and cools down. C. The greenhouse theory is full of drawbacks and misconceptions. 1. Surface temperatures. 2. The heating of the lower atmosphere. 3.The Arctic ice and warming. III. The current state of research does not allow linking global warming to human activity. A. The current state of literature cannot link global warming to human activity. 1. No relevant information. 2. Assumptions not supported by statistical research. B. The causes of global warming and its mechanisms remain unknown. 1. The lack of information about global warming mechanisms. C. Years will pass before the humanity can understand the drivers behind global warming and, if necessary, develop solutions. 1. The lack of information about the problem. IV. Conclusion. Research paper Global warming is one of the most popular topics of public discussion. Given the growing society’s commitment to environment and sustainable development, global warming has already become the issue of the major public concern. Thousands of people naively believe that their activity and the growing amount of CO2 in the atmosphere are the direct causes of global warming on the planet. Others are confident that global warming is the beginning of the human apocalypses. In reality, the current state of research does not confirm the link between warming and human activity and implies that years will pass before we have a better understanding of its causes, mechanisms and, if necessary, solutions. Literature review Scholars and professionals in climate studies lack unanimous agreement as for whether global warming is the direct consequence of human activity. Nevertheless, most of them unilaterally assert that the planet is gradually warming and that the climate is slowly changing. Statistically, the last century was marked with the steadily rapid increase of surface temperatures on the planet – 0.56 K over century (Anonymous, 2010). Temperatures at the New York and Paris latitude moved about 2 degrees, while temperatures in the polar latitudes changed up 3 degrees Celsius (Singer & Avery, 2007). Actually, polar latitudes and Arctic ices represent the most complex problem: Arctic warming has already become the issue of the major climatic concern. During the twentieth century, air temperatures in the Arctic land rose by 5 degrees Celsius (West, 2009). By the end of the twenty-first century, the average temperatures in Alaska are expected to rise 3-5 degrees over land and 5-7 degrees over the ocean (West, 2009). In the Arctic, warming is more rapid intense compared with the other regions and the rise of temperatures there will have a profound effect on the flora and fauna. Ultimately, the end of the 20th century was marked with the growing number of hurricanes and storms of unbelievable strength (Houghton, 2007). Windstorms and hurricanes were followed by floods due to unusually intense rainfalls or because of the long periods of reduced rainfalls (Houghton, 2007). All these are the signs of the changing climate, but are they enough to assume that global warming is the direct consequence of human activity? Today, more and more researchers avoid radical assumptions regarding the role of human activity in global warming and come to recognize the complexity of drivers behind the rise of temperature on the planet. DiPuccio (2008) provides an extensive list of reasons why global warming cannot be the product of human activity, from the natural climate sensitivity and the lessons of warming from the past, to the minor role of CO2 and sun and the failures of computer modeling. For example, DiPuccio (2008) writes that neither dynamical nor statistical model of computer modeling can successfully test a hypothesis that global warming is the result of increased human activity. Singer and Avery (2007) support these beliefs, saying that the current global warming is just another stage in the global earth cycle which lasts 1,500 years: “the Earth continually warms and cools. The cycle is undeniable, ancient, often abrupt, and global” (p.2). The authors go further and suggest that greenhouse theory has several important misconceptions. For example, Singer and Avery (2007) assert that recently, earth surface has been warming faster than the lower atmosphere up to 30,000; meanwhile, greenhouse theory supporters continue to state that CO2 will first heat up the lower atmosphere which, consequentially, irradiate the atmospheric heat to raise the temperature of the Earth’s surface. Finally, that the Arctic is the most susceptible to temperature changes does not necessarily mean that these changes are caused by human activity: put simply, ice is a giant mirror that reflects the sun but when turned into dark water, it soaks the heat and contributes to further ice melting (Andersen, 2009; Bengtsson, Semenov & Johannessen, 2007). Based on the results of the current analysis, there is no relevant information to assume that global warming is the direct consequence of human activity. Few authors who continue to link global warming to human activity do not provide any statistical information to support their thesis. Statistical computer models reveal numerous inconsistencies and cannot objectively evaluate the current climatic trends (Dipuccio, 2008). Meanwhile, the specific mechanisms and causes of global warming remain unknown. Based on the available information, years will pass before the humanity can understand the real drivers behind global warming and, if necessary, develop effective solutions to the most complex climate issues. Conclusion Global warming remains the topic of hot public debate. Thousands of people believe that human activity is the basic cause of global warming, while others are confident that global warming has nothing to do with CO2 and industrial development. In reality, the current state of research does not confirm the link between global warming and human activity. Statistics is unreliable, while numerous theories of global warming reveal serious inconsistencies and drawbacks. Based on what we know about global warming, years will pass before we have a better understanding of its causes and mechanisms and, if necessary, develop effective solutions to the most complex climate problems. Works Cited Andersen, A. (2009). The Coming Transformation of the Arctic. World Policy Journal, Winter, 53-64. Anonymous. (2010). Global Warming Statistics. The Global Warming Overview. Retrieved July 16, 2010 from http://www.theglobalwarmingoverview.com/index.php/Global-Warming-Statistics.html Bengtsson, L., Semenov, V. & Johannessen, O.M. (2007). The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic – A Possible Mechanism. Journal of Climate,17, 4045-4057. DiPuccio, W. (2008). A Glimpse Inside the Global Warming Controversy. Science and Public Policy. Retrieved July 16, 2010 from http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/glimpse_inside_global_warming.html Houghton, J.T. (2007). Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. Cambridge University Press. Singer, F. & Avery, D.T. (2007). Unstoppable Global Warming. Rowman & Littlefield, West, M.B. (2009). Arctic Warming: Environmental, Human, and Security Implications. Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law, 42, 1081-1108. Read More