Climate Change, Global Warming, and Related Issues - Term Paper Example

Climate change, global warming, and related issues In the current usage of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UNIPCC), climate change refers to a changes in the climate that “persists for an extended period, typically decades or larger” (30). In the UNIPCC 2007 definition, climate change “refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity” (30). Global warming pertains to the increase in earth’s average temperature. Latest immediately available data of the UNIPCC indicate that planet earth has been warming at the rate of 0.10 to 0.16 degrees centigrade per decade or at an average of 0.13 degrees centigrade per decade from 1956 to 2005. The figure is around two times the level of global warming for the 100-year period from 1905 to 2005 (UNIPCC 30). The UNIPCC has identified the following as among the symptoms of climate change (30): 1. Cold nights and frosts have become infrequent while hot days and nights have become frequent in land areas. 2. Heavy precipitation or rains have increased in many areas. 3. Incidences of extreme high sea levels have increased. The UNIPCC described the earth’s warming as “unequivocal” and reported that this is “evident” in the “widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level” (30). Global average sea level has been rising from 2.4 to 3.8 millimeter per year or at an average of 1.8 millimeter per year from 1993 to 2003 (UNIPCC 30). Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing from 2.1 to 3.3% per decade or at an average of 2.7% per decade (UNIPCC 30). In the ongoing global warming, although the ocean is taking up 80% of the additional heat, the land regions have warmed faster than the oceans (UNIPCC 30). The warming is definitely affecting the fishes and the living organisms of the world’s oceans as well as the entire earth’s plant and animal kingdoms or the globe’s flora and fauna in technical terms. The ability of humanity to derive or produce food from the planet is most likely affected. The UNIPCC confirmed that there are shifts and changes in algal and zooplankton abundance in oceans and lakes (31). There are also effects on coral reefs (UNIPCC 31). The UNIPCC also noted that one effect of global warming is an early spring and related events such as “leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying” (33). The UNIPCC also reported that with global warming, there is an “excess heat-related mortality” in Europe and changes in patterns as well as sources of infectious diseases (33). Hunting and travel seasons are affected (UNIPCC 33). The rise in sea level is also contributing to “losses of coastal wetlands and mangroves” as well as to the “increasing damage from coastal flooding in many areas” (UNIPCC 33). The UNIPCC has solid evidence on global warming and climate change. It studied 29,000 observational data series from 75 studies and found that 89% of the observations are consistent with view that there is climate change that resulted from the global warming (UNIPCC 33). If no mitigation measures are done, global warming this century or up to year 2100 can be from 2 to 4.5 degrees centigrade with a best estimate of 3 degrees centigrade (UNIPCC 38). According to the UNIPCC, “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration” (UNIPCC 39). Developed nations, known as “Annex 1 countries”, cover 20% of the world’s population and producing 57% of the world’s gross domestic product account for 46% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions (UNIPCC 37). The UNIPCC elaborated further that “the observed widespread warming of the atmosphere with ice mass loss, support the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that the global climate change of the past 50 year can be explained without external forcing and very likely that is not due to known natural causes alone” (39).1 According to the UNIPCC, carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic cause of global warming (36). The annual emission of carbon dioxide has grown by 80%, or 21 to 38 gigatonnes, from 1970 to 2004 (UNIPCC 36). Carbon dioxide represents 77% of the total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2004 (UNIPCC 36). The rate of growth of carbon dioxide emissions increased from 0.43 gigatonnes per year in 1970 to 1994 to 0.92 gigatonnes per year in 1995 to 2004 (UNIPCC 36). The increase in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is due primarily to the use of fossil fuels with changes in earth’s land use providing “another significant but smaller contributions” (UNIPCC 37). The global concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) during the pre-industrial years to 379 ppm in 2005. The average annual growth in carbon dioxide concentration increased from 1.4 ppm during the years 1960 to 2005 to 1.9 ppm during the years 1995 to 2005. The UNIPCC has seven scenarios for the global warming within this century. We discuss only six scenarios because one scenario had become highly unfeasible. The six scenarios belong to four scenario families designated by their UNIPCC codes A1, A2, B1, and B2. Given the variations in the four scenarios, the UNIPCC forecasts six scenarios and differentiated each scenario through scenario codes A1F1, A1T, A1B, B1, B2, and A2, and. As mentioned earlier, there actually seven scenarios for this century but we no longer discuss one because the scenario had become highly unlikely even as the forecast associated with the scenario is a global warming of only 0.3 to 0.9 degree centigrade with a best estimate of 0.6 degree centigrade. Basic scenario A1 is a world of rapid economic growth with three variants: A1F1 is fossil intensive, A1T is non-fossil intensive, and A1B is a “balanced” sourcing of all types of energy sources. B1 assumes the same population as A1 but with more rapid restructuring towards a service and information economy. B2 assumes more modest population and economic growth and emphasizes “local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability”. A2 describes a world with “high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change”. The first scenario, A1F1, is forecasted to bring about a global warming of 2.4 to 6.4 degrees centigrade for the period 2090 to 2099 compared to the 1980-1999 global average temperature. The best estimate is a 4.0 degrees centigrade rise in global average temperature with a rise in the sea level of between 0.26 to 0.59 meters relative to the 1980 to 1999 sea level. The second scenario, A1T, is forecasted to bring about a global warming of 1.4 to 3.8 degrees centigrade for the period 2090 to 2099 compared to the 1980-1999 global average temperature. The best estimate is a 2.4 degrees centigrade rise in global average temperature with a rise in the sea level of between 0.20 to 0.45 meters relative to the 1980 to 1999 sea level. The third scenario, A1B, is forecasted to bring about a global warming of 1.7 to 4.4 degrees centigrade for the period 2090 to 2099 compared to the 1980-1999 global average temperature. The best estimate is a 2.8 degrees centigrade rise in global average temperature with a rise in the sea level of between 0.21 to 0.48 meters relative to the 1980 to 1999 sea level. The fourth scenario, B1, is forecasted to bring about a global warming of 1.1 to 2.9 degrees centigrade for the period 2090 to 2099 compared to the 1980-1999 global average temperature. The best estimate is a 1.8 degrees centigrade rise in global average temperature with a rise in the sea level of between 0.18 to 0.38 meters relative to the 1980 to 1999 sea level. The fifth scenario, B2, is forecasted to bring about a global warming of 1.4 to 3.8 degrees centigrade for the period 2090 to 2099 compared to the 1980-1999 global average temperature. The best estimate is a 2.4 degrees centigrade rise in global average temperature with a rise in the sea level of between 0.20 to 0.43 meters relative to the 1980 to 1999 sea level. Lastly, or the sixth scenario, A2, is forecasted to bring about a global warming of 2.0 to 5.4 degrees centigrade for the period 2090 to 2099 compared to the 1980-1999 global average temperature. The best estimate is a 3.4 degrees centigrade rise in global average temperature with a rise in the sea level of between 0.23 to 0.51 meters relative to the 1980 to 1999 sea level. All estimates, however, are underestimates in the rise in the sea level because the estimates have not yet factor in the effects of changes in ice flow. The nongovernment (NGO) community all over the world is almost unanimous in pushing for a global warming that is no more than 2 degrees centigrade this century. There is almost a unanimous belief that if global warming will be over 2 degrees this century, the results would be catastrophic. The NGO community worldwide had painted a doomsday scenario if the global warming will be more than 2 degrees this century. Based on the six scenarios of the UNIPCC, it is clear that only a B1 scenario or economic growth will give the planet a fighting chance to prevent the earth’s average temperature from going beyond 2 degrees centigrade. However, recall that the forecast for scenario B1 is actually a global warming of 1.1 to 2.9 degrees centigrade and 1.8 is only the best estimate. There is still therefore a chance for the earth’s average temperature to go beyond 2 degrees centigrade even if B1 measures are adopted. B1 require a “rapid restructuring towards a service and information economy”. Alternatively, we can also describe the B1 scenario as a movement towards a low-carbon economy. For the earth to move towards a low carbon economy, international agreements and commitments are required. Otherwise, or without the international commitments and agreements, we will be risking a world in which each country will be left on its own to judge whether the country would move towards a low carbon economy. In this scenario, there would be risks towards free riding or attempts to benefit from the efforts of other countries to reduce carbon emissions without doing anything to reduce his or her country’s carbon emissions. We aware that in NewsBusters, Shephard had reported that some 31,000 scientists have rejected the theory of global warming. However, the truth of global warming and its anthropogenic roots have been validated by so many times by the scientific community and by no less than the scientific authorities consulted by the international community have. The truth of global warming science and its anthropogenic roots have been affirmed continuously for at least 18 years now by close to 200 countries of the world since the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992. Thus, the theory of climate change science and its anthropogenic roots have the backing of not only the natural sciences but the backing as well of the scientific and political authorities of the world’s nations. We also know that based on the 2007 Hieb’s report, a number of eminent scientists have expressed the view that the ongoing global warming could be a product of the cycle of warming and cooling that the earth has been ongoing for the past 750,000 years. However, as mentioned earlier in this essay, the world’s scientists tapped by the UNIPCC have already long factored these in their conclusions and have stressed that the ongoing global warming cannot be purely natural and much can be explained by greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide emissions related to fossil fuels. Inaction on climate change is very costly. The Global Humanitarian Forum has estimated that climate change kills 300,000 lives, destroys US$125 million of value, and affects around 325 million people annually (1). At home, the Science Daily has estimated that climate change can cost many US states about US$ 1 billion. This brings us to the reasons for the COP 15 or the Conference of Parties 15 of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change. There were at least 15 conferences of parties of the United Nations since 1992. Official representatives of close to 200 countries of the United Nations have attended the meetings since 1992 except for the United States who has been sending only a set of observers to the United Nations’ meetings on climate change for several years as a result of the policies of the George Bush administration. It was wonderful that United States President Barack Obama has finally attended the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. Unfortunately, nothing significant in the sense that no government commitments have been made in the Copenhagen meeting. This implies that the B1 scenario discussed earlier cannot take place. Given this situation, the more likely scenario is that global warming will be most likely more than 3 degrees centigrade within this century. As discussed earlier, a global warming of more than 2 degrees centigrade is associated with catastrophic situations. Global warming can be from 2 to more than 6 degrees this century! If the other scenarios materialize this will imply higher sea levels, changes in the crop patterns if not widespread poverty if crops fail or humanity fails to adjust. However, it may still be possible for a signed agreement and commitment to materialize from the Copenhagen 15 of 2009. Should a signed agreement and commitment fail to materialize, more than ever we will have to shift our emphasis to adaptation to climate change. This means that we have to build our structure and organize our agriculture to be compatible with the major environment changes that will take place this century. This can mean planting crops that are more resilient to the warmer temperature and greater precipitation. This can also mean building structures that factor in the higher sea level and warmer temperature. Works Cited Global Humanitarian Forum. Human Impact report: The Anatomy of a Silent Killer. Geneva: Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009. Hieb, Monte. “Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective”. 2007. 8 June 2010 . Science Daily. “Cost of Climate Change, State-by-State, Billions say New Report”. 25 July 2008. 8 June 2010 . Sheppard, Noel. “31,000 scientists rejecting the global warming theory”. NewsBusters. 18 May 2008. 10 June 2010 . UNIPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 United Nations. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. New York: United Nations, 1992. Read More