Global Warming and Water Shortage - Research Paper Example

Global Warming and Water shortage: The implications for future generations Over the of the last hundred years or so, the planet earth has observed a significant alteration in climate patterns all over. There have been observed surges in global average air temperature near the Earths surface, warming of the upper levels of the ocean, increase in the extent of extremity in temperatures, increased intensity of rainfalls and cyclones, decline in snow cover and ice extents and significantly increased droughts (IPCC, 2007). This unprecedented gradual and continuing rise in average temperatures is generally known as ‘global warming’1 and the fore mentioned modifications in the global geographical and climatic parameters is often recognized as being associated elements of the global warming process. Although exact predictions of the environmental effects of these alterations in the global climate are difficult to predict, the dimensions and the extents in which the impacts will possibly manifest have been subject to speculations. The global surface temperatures have been predicted to be subject to rises ranging from 1.1 to 6.4 °C in the present century. Such rises are likely to entail further increases in the sea level, extremities of temperatures and alterations in the precipitation patterns (IPCC, 2007). The hydrology of all the major river basins all across the world are likely to be affected and changed by the warming process as well (Postel, 1999). Therefore, the fresh water supply of the world is very likely to be affected through altered precipitation patterns or hydrological systems. As a result the possibility of the fresh water supplies being affected adversely as a direct consequence of global warming emerges. Though there are critics who attribute likely global water supply shortages to more significant anthropogenic causes rather than global warming (see Golkany, 2003), the present essay shall consider global warming as a source of fresh water depletion as, though such anthropogenic causes may be significant in the short run, in the long run, climate changes are likely to have greater impacts. Thus, the implications of global water supply shortages for the future generations shall be explored assuming that they will be significantly contributed to by global warming. In what follows, we first briefly look into the present global water supply situation. Then analysis of the implications of the further depletions of the present stock predicted for the generations to come is explored. On the basis of this, we then attempt to identify the true nature and the extent of the severity of the problem before attempting to discuss the possibility of prevention and finally concluding. In the last few years, the earth has witnessed colossal damage due to excess of water particularly in case of the tsunami in December 2004, quite a few devastating hurricanes in the Caribbean, western pacific and the USA, excessive flooding in the European continent. Regions in the vicinity of the Himalayas presently are preparing themselves for terribly severe landslides triggered by the monsoon. It is thus a stark irony that millions of people all over the world suffer from the inadequacy of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation purposes (IRIN, 2006). Although the Earth has been bestowed with a relative scarcity of land relative to the available water supply, the cause of the crisis essentially lies in the fact that the fresh and usable water supply stored in aquifers, surface water and the atmosphere is finite whilst the demand for it is escalating to very high levels by the day. Despite the fact that the annual available fresh water stock amounts to something around 14,000 sqkm which represents about 0.03 percent of the total global water resources available, if this amount could be distributed equally for the entire population, there would be sufficient supplies for each and every individual. The access to the supply of fresh water however, is severely asymmetric mainly owing to geographical, socio-economic and political reasons. A stark geographical asymmetry is the example of the Amazon basin which whilst carrying 15 percent of the global fresh water runoff, serves a meager one percent of the Earth’s population (IRIN, 2006). Such asymmetries lead to huge disparities all over the world and the problem is most severe for the poorer third world nations. Not only do 1.1 billion people lack access to drinkable water all over the world, a far larger number lack access to water usable for sanitation purposes. As a result, waterborne diseases take away a very high number of lives annually and such diseases cause the largest number of deaths in underdeveloped nations. A striking fact is that half of all the patients occupying hospital beds al over the world suffer from waterborne diseases (Water Partners International, 2008). A World Bank report finds 88 percent of all diseases are caused by unsafe drinking water, inadequate sanitation along with poor hygiene (CNN, 2007). The World Health Organization finds, up to half of all humanity suffers from one of the six main diseases, diarrhea, schistosomiasis, or trachoma, or infestation with ascaris, guinea worm, or hookworm which are associated with consumption of unhealthy and unhygienic water and inadequacy of sanitation facilities (Tenenbaum, 1998). Apart from drinking and sanitation inadequacies in the global water supply, the situation is being worsened by the day through reduced availability of water for farming purposes as well. The climate changes that have led to climbs in drying up of seasonal rainfalls in the monsoon have increased dependencies upon irrigation which in turn has led to intensive extraction rates of ground water, often much higher than the rate of increase in the stock. The extremely poor farmers in India and certain sub-Saharan nations however, who are forced to depend upon rain water alone have been severely affected by the reduction in seasonal rainfall due to the climate changes. China has been suffering severe water supply related woes in recent times. With its brunt of the huge population pressure that is mounting by the day, it has often had to divert water from irrigation to supply domestic purposes thereby worsening the agriculture dependent population which is still the majority. In spite of such efforts 300 Chinese cities are presently running dry and the severity of the problem is being escalated as over pumping is causing significant drops in the water table while at the same time the rivers are becoming unusable due to strikingly high polluting rates (De Villiers, 2000). Similar over pumping woes persist for India as well where another added problem results from the growing contamination of the soil with irrigation water hindering land productivities and thereby increasing the water usage intensities. The major water basins are being depleted fast and industrialization efforts are ruining the resilience of these water sources. Although Israel has been able to invent and employ certain water conserving technologies, re-supply is still outrun by the speed of withdrawals and the dependence on the Jordan River as the prime source remains. Over pumping in the coastal regions is allowing sea water to seep into and pollute drinking water. The Jordan River is also shared by Jordan and such international water sharing is not very rare across the world where many of the major sources of fresh water transcend national frontiers. Egypt which virtually is rain starved has to depend entirely upon the Nile which flows through and feeds Sudan and Ethiopia before entering Egypt. Any interference on the parts of these two could virtually lead to Egypt being cut of from supply of fresh water in totality. With the stock of water slowly but surely depleting, international interactions over the politics of controlling the water source or Hydropolitics as termed by Postel (1999) attains considerable significance. Turkey, Syria and Iraq, are another set of Middle-Eastern states involved in such hydropolitics as both the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers flow from Turkey to Syria and Iraq, accounting for the main share of irrigation water necessary due to the extremely arid climate. The recent proposal of Turkey of making a series of dams if realized will reduce the river flow generating causes for alarm in the downstream nations (Postel, 1999). The Colorado River is another instance of necessitated river sharing, flowing initially through the USA before entering Mexico. The Niger in Africa, the Amur River between Russia and parched northern China, as well as the Indus, the Ganges and the Mekong, in Asia are examples of such water sources that are internationally shared. With the chances of the water supply shortage escalating in future due to global warming, the possibility of international conflicts over water sharing starts looming large. In certain cases the relationships have already strained over water usage issues. Iraq for instance massed troops on the Syrian border threatening to destroy the Syrian Al-Thawra dam on the Euphrates as early as 1974 (Bingham et al., 2003, Klio, 2001). As the crisis escalates, the positive probabilities of further severe and intense conflicts emerge (Klio, 2001). Conflicts have started emerging within national boundaries as well owing to clashes of interests generating from state regulations in allocations in water stressed countries like China, Thailand, Pakistan and India2. So, the present crisis of the global water supply is found not only to have direct adverse health effects on billions of people particularly in the poorer nations, it also has led to strained international relations which have the potential to escalate into full blown wars. A great deal of social unrest has also been created due to water allocations. Given such conditions in present times, the impact of further worsening of the global water supply due to global warming can lead to extremely severe problems for the generations to come. The problems therefore are essentially of managing the allocation of the dwindling stocks. As already mentioned, the supply of fresh water over all is not as stressed as it is for geographically disadvantaged sections of the globe. The costs of desalinating sea water are also prohibitively high given the present state of technology. The challenges for present and future generations is therefore to achieve a balance in the global allocation of water to treat the stark disparities and ensure basic fresh water amenities to the poverty stricken sections of the world population who still abide by distressful conditions. Problems of mounting over pumping of ground water in nations like India and China have to be addressed while at the same time ensuring sufficient supplies that can quench the thirsts of the poor safely and allow them proper sanitation and serve the fields adequately. Given the present rate of stock depletion and the potential further losses, this can be achieved through technological advances that enable enhanced and intensive water recycling. Another technological challenge for the future generations will be to bring down the costs of desalination thereby opening up the almost infinite stock of sea water to allow household usage. Achievement of such advances will along with increasing the access to fresh water also reduce dependencies on river waters and lakes thereby reducing the very high polluting rates through decreasing the intensity of usage and thereby reducing the substantial damages presently being caused to the environment. Aquifers will then once more be allowed to fill up and most importantly the dependencies on international sharing of resources will be reduced thereby preventing the predictable conflicts. This will not be an easy achievement and will come only through globally integrated efforts in which the developed nations will have to play most important roles. That acting in terms of only self interest in this case for any nation only defeats the purpose of its actions as conflicts and over extractions by any nation finally contributes to overall depletion of the resource and although acting in self interest may be apparently a solution to ensure the improved access for the nation, it is in nature a very myopic strategy that will finally in the long run have only harmful effects has to be perceived. Instead efforts should be to conserve the present stock of reserves through increased cooperation that benefits overall global relations and serves significantly in the probability of achieving the necessary advances in technology through integrated international efforts. References: Bingham, N., Blowers, A., & Belshaw (Ed), C. 2003. “Contested Environments”, John Wiley and sons, Chichester, UK De Villiers, M. 2000. Water: the Fate of our Most Precious Resource, Houghton Mifflin, 2000. Golkany, I.M., 2003. “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation “Energy & Environment, vol. 14, pp. 797-822 IPCC, 2007. “Climate Change 2007”, Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf IRIN, (2006), Running Dry: The humanitarian impact of the global water crisis, IRIN In-Depth, October Klio, N. 2001. Water Resources and Conflict in the Middle East, Routledge, Oxfordshire, England (2001) Postel, S. 1999. Pillar of Sand: Can the Irrigation Miracle Last? W.W. Norton, Tenenbaum, D.J., 1998. Tackling the Big Three (air and water pollution, and sanitation), Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 106, Number 5. Water Partners International, 2008. http://water.org/waterpartners.aspx?pgID=907 Read More