Consequences for Party System of Identification of Republican or Democratic parties - Essay Example

In this survey, the independents constitute 39% of the 18-24-year-old voters and 45% of the 25-29-year-old voters. The significance of this development for the two parties is very important. Particularly, it affects their ability to win during elections.
Independents are important for both the Republicans and the Democrats because they have been considered as swing votes, crucial in determining the success of candidates from both parties. This is true given the fact that traditionally both have roughly the same number of members. To demonstrate this point, one need not look further than the results of the previous US presidential elections wherein no President had so far claimed overwhelming support from the majority. Lewis-Beck, for instance, explained that the presidential election in the past had been especially close, with the national popular votes split nearly evenly even when landslides occur such as the 1984 victory of Ronald Reagan when the popular vote was split (59-41). This phenomenon demonstrates the importance of voters who are not identified with the Republican and Democratic parties. They are free to change their minds and vote outside of party lines. It also explains the variable that has perplexed many political scientists. With the dominance of the Republican or the Democratic Party in an election, there is no guarantee that it stays in office long. In the American experience, there is frequent alternation in power and when A Democrat is elected in the White House, it does not necessarily mean that his party will control the Congress.
The young voters, with their aversion to being identified with a particular political ideology, significantly erode the party identification phenomenon, which, for so long, has formed the fundamental support bases of the Republican and Democratic Parties. Jennings and Mann argued that such identification is the psychological force located near the middle of the funnel of causality at a distance from the ultimate dependent variable, which is the voting choice and characterizes a voter’s orientation to an important group during the elections. Johnston (2006) referred to the successes of party identification during the 1960s and the immediate years afterward when the political landscape was fixed according to its dynamics and how perceptions and preferences for candidates are largely dictated by party ideology. The case today, however, is increasingly different. During the 2008 presidential elections and the recently concluded electoral exercise, the tone of the political campaign provided excellent insights. Political candidates focus their messages in such a way that they appeal to independent young voters by taking up the causes and issues that interest them and appeal to their preferences. Candidates were not shy about admitting this and it goes without any sound reasoning. Young voters are fertile grounds by which candidates could mold, guide, and change opinions and perspectives.
Several other issues underpin the dynamics and voting behavior of young independent voters. The first of these is that a losing political party is often not considered as decisively defeated and chances of bouncing back in the next elections are extremely high. The vote swing that has ensured narrow victory for the incumbent party could turn to their side just as easily in the next elections. Then, there is also the fact that the growing number of young independents could threaten the stability of the two dominant political parties. What this means is that with a significant portion of the population favoring one party from another but never at a consistent degree, could shake up ideologies in the continuous fight for public office. While it could not, at least shortly, cause the demise of either the Republican and Democratic Parties, it could effectively change their ideologies. For example, these past years, each of these parties is increasingly fielding presidential candidates that are known to be moderates – not candidates that represent extreme left or extreme right.  There may come a time when the line dividing Republicans from Democrats may become blurred and eventually erased. It must be underscored, that most young voters and independents tend to lean towards an ideology. These voters could say they agree more with Republican or Democratic causes. However, the fact is that their positions are never solid and firm.
All in all, the young independent voters are increasingly becoming a political force. One may even call it a third force that vies with the two dominant ideologies for influence in the American polity and policy networks today. Out of this important development lies the idea that the emergence of these new voters is not necessarily a bad thing, at least for the nation as a whole. They serve as a balancing force for those hardcore party voters who would vote for candidates regardless of their merits and mostly because of their party ideology. They are above partisan conflict and this may be a crucial component in achieving reform faster through the electoral process.