The Potatos Contribution to Population and Urbanization Evidence from a Historical Experiment - Article Example

The Potato’s Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence from an Historical Experiment: Critical Analysis Introduction The paper “The Potato’s Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence from a Historical Experiment” critically scrutinizes the question whether potato has any significant effect on the increase of population and urbanization of the Old World. As to the investigation of this question, the authors primarily concentrate on the regional variations in the cultivation of this crop and they claim that the regional cultivability of potato has significantly affected the growth of population and urbanization “observed during the 18th and 19th centuries” (Nunn & Qian: 2009, p. 1). Indeed investigating into the question of potato’s contribution to population and urbanization led the authors of this paper to scrutinize the data available on the regional suitability potato, its nutritional contribution, growth of both of regional population and city population between 1000 AD and 1900 AD. Now they claimed that the statistics of the cultivability of potato in the regions and its role as a nutritional factor significantly affect the growth of population and urbanization. Method In the first place, drawing references to the empirical studies by Fogel (1984, 1994, 2004) and McKeown (1976) Nunn and Qian attempt to propound that “the main contributing factor to the decline in mortality….was improved nutrition” (Nunn & Qian: 2009, p. 1). Defining the regional suitability of potato the authors focused on the effects of potatoes on the growth of population as they say, “we believe the introduction of the potato had permanent growth effects” (Nunn & Qian: 2009, p. 17). Necessarily they scrutinize the level of populace in the years: 1000, 1400, 1500, 1600, 1700, 1800, and 1900 (Nunn & Qian: 2009, p. 17). The average yearly population expansion rate between each time period was calculated in the following manner: Population growthit = Where n is 100 years, except when t = 1400; then n = 400. (Source: Nunn & Qian: 2009, p. 17) For urbanization rate between these time periods, the following equation was used: Change in city population share it = Where n is 100 years, except when t = 1400; then n = 400. (Source: Nunn & Qian: 2009, p. 18) In order to extract the outcomes of interest and to structure the available data the authors of this paper used following equation that simply scrutinizes the relationship the cultivability of potato in a country and the growth of population, the urbanization, and the nutritional consumption in that country. The equation is as following: Where, Yit = outcome of interest i = countries t = time ∑cI­ci = average time invariant difference in country characteristics ∑jIjt = time specific shocks ∑j ∂j All Cropsi × Ijt = variables All Cropsi = fraction of land Also to get a better data structure the following equation was used: (Source: Nunn & Qian: 2009, p. 19, 20) Results In their flexible estimation Nunn and Qian asserted that though cultivability of potato had a very little effect on population and urbanization between 1400 1700, it began to exert effect on the population rapidly during the beginning of 1700. But in the “Preliminary Differences-in-Differences Population Estimates” the authors say, “Potatoes has a positive and significant effect on population and population growth” (Nunn & Qian: 2009, p. 25) in both cities and countries. It is evident that the introduction of potato had a greater effect on the population of an area depending on its cultivability in that area. From the Table-5, it is evident that both of the Population Growthit and Change in city population share it are dependable on the Potato x Post and only when n is 100 years, except when t = 1400; then n = 400. The table shows that the more is the suitability of potato, the more is the Population Growthit and Change in city population shareit. But after the 1700, the coefficients for Potato × Ijt and AllCropsi × Ijt shows faster changes both in the Potato x Post, Population growthit and Change in city population share it. Critique The authors open their work with the idea of exploiting the suitability of potato cultivation in different places at different times in the effort to relate the staple food on its effects on Old World population and urbanization. Unfortunately, the paragraph following the introductory one talks about the statistics on the population of the whole world. This might be justified as things in the New World existed, and still exist, in the Old World and vice-versa but still, this could have been properly explained. The era timeframe is set at 1000 to 1900 AD. This period factor can hardly be synchronized by other sources. Farmers in America before the time of Columbus, that is, around seven thousand years ago, discovered and planted potato and the crop went its way to Peru and Europe later in the middle 1500’s. (Potato! - History. The Potato, n.d) Though the authors, Nunn and Qian, did not explicitly mention the method of research in their paper, the technique of research imbedded in the study is to be much of a deductive one. They simply led an in-depth study on the data available from various sources and arranged them in a systematic way for their convenient manipulation. Then they assessed the data through some scholastic processes and propounded their key claim. Nunn and Qian implicitly refer to the essence of the method of the paper in the following sentence, “We exploit regional variation in suitability for cultivating potatoes, together with time variation….” (Nunn & Qian: 2009, Abstract) It is true that potatoes are an important source of staple food. It is equally correct to observe though that it is not the frontrunner. Basically, the three major ones are rice, maize (or corn) and wheat which comprise sixty per cent of the food energy intake of the whole world. (Staple foods: What do people eat? FAO CORPORATE DOCUMENT REPOSITORY, n.d) The queries may thus be posed: What role then did and do these nutrition sources play in population, urbanization and people’s lives in general? Did not rice or wheat or corn contribute to these developments? If so, how can it be quantified? In what venues did the corresponding dynamics take place and during what era? It goes therefore that potatoes might have resulted into such developments as population and urbanization in part or in some ways. However, such a proposition must be capable of being validated. In sum, no quantifiable methods are observed in finding the answers to the hovering question. While it is fairly presented that logic and common sense somewhat propose correlations between the given dynamics and variables, there are no scientific, mathematical or statistical formula offered to resolve the issues. The matter becomes thus an open-ended query. This is shown by things inferred, insinuated or alleged and by some other things likewise presumed or imputed. Thus, it is declared that potato cultivation came and then nutrition improved and then population increased. No doubt, these exhibited factors can be correlated and connected, directly or indirectly. For some reasons unknown, these expected correlation and connection were not achieved either by ambiguity or by silence. Conclusion The literary piece points to the magnificent rise in the number of people who had chosen their abodes in the urbanities while it admits that this phenomenon had been the object of puzzlement among people in the relevant fields of studies. The article continues by implying that enhanced nutrition must have reduced mortality and increased the span of human life, thus surmising the reasons for the growth in population. Interestingly, all the data are presented with some scientific pertinence while, as a whole, there are no definite validations or recommended processes to substantiate what are being conveyed to the readers. In the case of height dynamics, for instance, it is mentioned in a highlighted manner albeit it gives reservation by advancing the theory that there is no direct connection. At the most, height is being mentioned together with nutrition variables during the growth years and then an assumption is made about the positive effects of nutrition. For sure, the objects of the article are relevant and important as both affect the basics of human existence among which are food and nutrition. Works Cited Abrahams, Mark A. “Article Writing – Credibility is King. Ezine articles”. Accessed September 21, 2009. Available at:< http://ezinearticles.com/?Article-Writing- Credibility-is-King&id=2250358> FAO CORPORATE DOCUMENT REPOSITORY, Accessed September 21, 2009. Available at: < http://www.fao.org/docrep/U8480E/U8480E07.HTM.> Maddison, Angus, Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1991). Potato! - History. The Potato. Accessed September 21, 2009. Available at: The world hunger problem: Facts, figures and statistics. “an end to World Hunger: hope for the future”, Accessed September 21, 2009. Available at: Read More