The Effects of Swine Flu on Tourism in London - Research Proposal Example

Research Proposal: A Study of the Effects of Swine Flu on the Tourism in London Submitted by: XXXXXXX Number: XXXXXXX of XXXXXXX Tutor’s Name: XXXXXX Date of Submission: XX – XX – 2009 Table of Contents Research Proposal: A Study of the Effects of Swine Flu on the Tourism in London 1 Submitted by: XXXXXXX 1 Student Number: XXXXXXX 1 University of XXXXXXX 1 Tutor’s Name: XXXXXX 1 Date of Submission: XX – XX – 2009 1 Table of Contents 2 Hypothesis: 3 Aims and Objectives: 3 Preliminary Literature: 4 Overview of UK Tourism Industry: 4 National Statistics: 4 Swine Flu: 5 Research Methodology 6 Research Paradigm 6 Data sources 9 Data Collection Methods 10 Data Analysis and Conclusion 11 Proposed Timescale: 12 Bibliography 12 Chosen Topic: In the present time where the world has been hit with a serious pandemic which has claimed several lives across the world, it is essential to concentrate and study a little about how the pandemic has affected the tourism industry. The country chosen for this study is United Kingdom and the city chosen is London. The research will be focused on how the tourism industry of London has been affected and whether there has been any decline in the tourism of London since the Swine Flu pandemic. Hypothesis: A triangulated study of the decrease in the UK tourism industry and the role of Swine Flu for this change. Aims and Objectives: Gain an overview on the tourism and travel industry of London Possible reasons for the decline in tourism in London Has Swine Flu played a significant role in the decline of the industry How dies Swine flu affect the tourist visits for international travelers As the title suggests the main objective of this research will be to study the effects of Swine flu on the tourism industry of London. In order to do so a research will be conducted to Preliminary Literature: The literature review will provide a description of the theoretical framework of the study. This includes a brief overview of the UK tourism industry, statistics, the trends in the London tourism and a brief overview of the swine flu pandemic. Overview of UK Tourism Industry: UK is one of the most developed countries in the world and is one with a rich heritage and excellent tourism. The UK tourism industry is one which has been rated to be as much as £114 billion and this accounts for more than eight percent of the total GDP of the country. There are several companies and corporations in this sector and these employ as many as 1.3 million people each year. The UK tourism is expected to grow to almost £188 billion in the coming decade (Kerstin Kühn, 2008). However over the year of 2009, the country has been faced with a slight decline in the tourism industry. This will be discussed in the following section. National Statistics: According to the National Statistics of the country, UK has been faced with a continuous decline over the last three months of August to October of 2009. The statistics have revealed that the seasonal adjusted numbers show a fall of almost 3% in terms of the visits by overseas residents and the non seasonal numbers highlight that there has been a decline of almost 9 percent than the period October 2008 – October 2009. Also the visits of UK residents to countries abroad has seen a decline of almost 14% over the period of October 2008 – October 2009. As seen in the graph above there has been a decrease in the visits both inwards and outwards into the UK and it is also essential to learn that the period of October 2008 – October 2009 has seen a drop of almost 3.1 million in terms of the decrease as seen in the 9% which corresponds to visits to the UK by residents of other countries. Statistics also highlight “Visits to the UK by residents of: a) Europe decreased by 9 per cent from 24.3 million to 22.0 million, b) North America decreased by 13 per cent from 4.0 million to 3.5 million, and c) other parts of the world decreased by 8 per cent from 4.5 million to 4.2 million” (National Statistics, 2009). Swine Flu: The year 2009 has seen a new pandemic worldwide which has been declared by WHO and has been rated to be at phase 6 which is an ongoing global spread of a virus. The alert reflects the severity of the virus and also highlights the spread of the virus. A virus officially called ‘Novel H1N1’ and locally referred to as ‘Swine Flu’ was a sudden outbreak across the world and one which claimed the lives of almost over 11,000 people across the world in a span of about 6 months. The virus has a major impact on humans and has been reported in numerous countries across the world with the highest cases being reported from countries like United States, Mexico, Canada, United Kingdom and India. The research will detail the facts and figures of the effects and extent of the virus in UK and a overview of the impact of the virus on the country. The research will also detail other parts of literature which include a clear list of factors that have possibly affected the UK and the factors that have led to the decline in the travel and tourism of the country. Research Methodology This part of the proposal describes the research approaches and methodology which will be utilised in the proposed research. It also provides an overview of the data collection methods, the type of data to be used and the method of data analysis. These will be linked to the theories and modules outlined in the literature review. Research Paradigm A paradigm can have various meanings. It refers to “your basic beliefs” and your approach to the world which affects the way you define your research and how you collect and analyse data (Collis & Hussey, 2003, p. 47). The research approaches used in the study comprises a mixture of both the “phenomenological paradigm” which is also referred to as a “qualitative” approach, and the “positivistic paradigm” also known as the “quantitative” approach (Collis & Hussey, 2003, p. 47). “Phenomenological” is based on the word “phenomenon” which means a fact that happened or an event that was witnessed. With the phenomenological approach the focus is on “understanding the human behaviour from the participant’s own frame of reference” (Collis & Hussey, 2003, p. 53). As this approach is related to an event within a context of time and place, the aim is to investigate an event by carrying out your own research to “construct new theory to explain the phenomenon” (Collis & Hussey, 2003, pp. 56-57) or use existing theory. The aim and focus with this approach is “on the quality and depth of data” (Collis & Hussey, 2003, pp. 56-57). With the positivistic paradigm, the emphasis is on using measurement to find out the relationships between facts and causes of the phenomenon. This is “an essential element of the research process under this paradigm” (Collis & Hussey, 2003, p. 57). This approach is useful when there is a need to conduct statistical analysis (Collis & Hussey, 2003, p. 56). A positivistic approach will be used and the researcher will be independent, will not be influenced by the subject of research, and will take “the role of an objective analyst” (Saunders & Lewis & Thornhill, 2000, p. 85). According to Denzin & Lincoln (cited in Silverman 2005), “qualitative investigators think they can get closer to the actor’s perspective through detailed interviewing and observation” (p. 10). With qualitative researchers, the emphasis is on the close relationship between the subject of research and the researcher where the value is in the social reality and the meaning of the social event or phenomenon. However, in comparison, quantitative researchers focus on the measurement and analysis of facts and causes. The qualitative approach relies on the quality and depth of data and does not focus on the “measured (if measured at all) in terms of quantity, amount, intensity, or frequency” (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000, p. 8). In addition, as Waters (2001) explains, the quantitative approach is based on “simplified representations of reality where real features are depicted by symbols” (p. 8). As the research will utilise interviews to collect data, it would be advantageous to use both the qualitative and quantitative approaches. This will be useful when conducting interviews, as the phenomenological paradigm helps the researcher to “get a feel for the key issues” and provides “confidence” in the accuracy and depth of the data collected as the main issues have been covered (Saunders & Lewis & Thornhill, 2000, p. 98). Furthermore, working within the positivistic paradigm will assist in measuring the data and the correlation between the variables, and the quantitative research outcome could be measured against existing theory. Using a mixture of approaches and techniques has advantages, as all methods have pros and cons. This means using a triangulation approach, which as Denzin & Lincoln (2000) explain “has been generally considered a process of using multiple perceptions to clarify meaning, verifying the repeatability of an observation or interpretation” (p. 443). Using both methods will help ensure that the research outcome is accurate and this “will lead to greater confidence being placed in your conclusions” (Saunders & Lewis & Thornhill, 2000, p. 99). It also reduces the “possibility of getting the answer wrong” (Saunders & Lewis & Thornhill, 2000, p. 100). The study will use exploratory and applied research approach that will use cross-sectional studies, a positivistic methodology, “designed to obtain information on variables in different contexts” (Collis & Hussey, 2003, p. 61). This study takes a sample of what the situation is, the social phenomenon. This will be done using interviews to see what happened to traveller trust and to investigate if there is a correlation or not between the event of swine flu pandemic and the change. According to Collis & Hussey (2003, p. 61) cross-sectional studies only indicate whether there is a correlation or not, and does not tell you why it is there. Data sources For the research, data will be collected from two types of sources, which are primary and secondary (Sekaran, 2000, p. 221). This is referred to as “data triangulation, where data is collected at different times or from different sources in the study of a phenomenon” (Collis & Hussey, 2003, p. 78). Primary data is information gathered from direct observation, conducting interviews, surveys, and questionnaires, from “individuals, focus groups, and a panel of respondents specifically set up by the researcher whose opinions may be sought on specific issues from time to time” (Sekaran, 2000, p. 221). Secondary data on the other hand refers to information published by others and which is already available (Collis & Hussey, 2003, pp. 53-54). It is also data collected by other people rather than the researcher who is carrying out the study (Sekaran, 2000, p. 255). Secondary data is information available from books, journals and online resources. Data Collection Methods Collection methods will involve conducting structured face-to-face and telephone interviews for approximately 60 participants. The main focus will be on people from travel agency and major corporate like Last Minute.com, TravelMasti.com, Expedia, Thomas Cook, STA Travels, and other agents similar to these. A list of set questions will be asked in all of the interviews and these will not vary from one person to another. This primary data will then be analysed. The advantage of using a structured interview is that it will help to “clarify doubts, and ensure that the responses are properly understood, by repeating or rephrasing the questions” (Sekaran, 2000, p. 230). It is also an opportunity to request “more in-depth information about specific variables of interest” (Sekaran, 2000, p. 233). However, there are disadvantages to face-to-face interviews as some “respondents might feel uneasy about the anonymity of their responses when they interact face to face with the interviewer” (Sekaran, 2000, p. 230). There are also “geographical limitations” (Sekaran, 2000, p. 230) which is why telephone interviews will be used to gather data from a wider range of participants in the UK. People may feel uncomfortable about being contacted or interviewed for research, however the topic of loss of trust and a lack of confidence in travel is not as emotive as other sensitive topics and hence the issue of receiving responses will not be very high. It will not be a problem collecting data as many people at this stage. There will be 30 telephone interviews and 30 face-to-face interviews. For the telephone interview, selected participants will be known to the researcher either directly or indirectly. As for the face-to-face interviews, the selection will include a combination of participants known by the researcher or randomly selected companies in the local city’s high street. This is why the interview needs to be concise and structured to get people to participate. The researcher will use “personal judgement” to decide which participants are selected for phone interviews (Sekaran, 2000, p. 237). In addition, the interview questions will be “open-ended” to allow participants to respond as they wish. They may feel uneasy if the questions are restrictive to yes or no responses, and this is especially applicable in face-to-face interviews. (Sekaran, 2000, p. 237). Conducting face-to-face interviews will help to gather direct data about what people think about the current trends in the travel industry and the levels of trust that are present in the markets. The research will also be able to perceive how people react and feel about this issue, and this can be referred to as indirect data. They will also help to bring attention to the key factors that affect the travel industry and the decline in the industry. The questions will be constructed in a way that gathers results to achieve the aim of the study. Secondary data will be gathered from books, journals, and online news, general, and government websites, some of which is referred to in the literature review. However, data collected from the internet will be considered with caution. This data needs to be evaluated based on its author which helps to identify whether the site is trusted or not, as the internet is “an open door to nonsense to appear, and one way of checking on this is knowing about the author” (Berry, 2004, p. 32). Data Analysis and Conclusion As the study used a mixture of the phenomenological and positivistic approaches to research, both qualitative and quantitative data analysis methods will be utilised. The data collected will be studied using “inductive” and “deductive” approaches to develop and theoretical framework. First of all, with the inductive approach information is put together from the data that has been collected. Then using the deductive approach allows the researcher to “turn away from the data and think rationally about the missing information and form conclusions based on logic” (Collis & Hussey, 2003, p. 73). The research questions will be answered on the basis of “an informed academic judgement, adopting the conceptual world-view of a perspective or theory and evaluating competing perspectives and theories through the ‘lens’ of this world-view” (Redman, 2006, p. 29). The outcome of the study is to formulate a grounded theory, based on the phenomenon being studied, which throws light on the issue of consumer trust in banking. Indeed, Collins & Hussey (2003) confirm that a study “illuminates the area under investigation” (p. 73). They also define grounded theory as “one of the interpretive methods that share the common philosophy of phenomenology” (Collis & Hussey, 2003, p. 73). The main objective of the study is to learn if the swine flu pandemic has had any effect on the overall decrease of the tourism and travel industry in London. Proposed Timescale: Particular Time Background Reading 1 week Literature Review 3 weeks Research Process & Research Methodology 3 weeks Analysis of Findings 1 week Conclusion 1 week Editing & Proof Reading 1 week Bibliography Berry, R. (2004) The Research Project. 5th edn. New York: Routledge Black, T. R (1999) Doing Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences: An Integrated Approach to Research Design, Measurement and Statistics. London: Sage Publications Ltd. Collis, J. & Hussey, R. (2003) Business Research: A practical guide for undergraduate and postgraduate students. 2nd edn. London: Macmillan Press Ltd. Denzin, N. K. & Lincoln, Y. S. (eds.) (2000) Handbook of Qualitative Research. 2nd edn. London: Sage Publications, Inc. Kerstin Kühn, 2008, UK tourism industry worth £114b, 11th November 2008, Accessed on 19th December 2009, Retrieved from http://www.caterersearch.com/Articles/2008/11/11/324581/uk-tourism-industry-worth-114b.html National Statistics, 2009, Travel & Tourism: Visits to and from the UK continue to fall, 17th December 2009, Accessed on 19th December 2009, Retrieved from http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=352 Redman, P. (2006) Good Essay Writing. 3rd edn. London: Sage Publications. Saunders, M. & Lewis, P. & Thornhill, A. (2000) Research Methods for Business Students. 2nd edn. Harlow: Pearson Education Limited. Sekaran, U. (2000) Research Methods for Business, A Skill-Building Approach. 3rd edn. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc. Silverman, D. (2005) Doing Qualitative Research. 2nd edn. London: Sage Publications. Waters, D. (2001) 3rd edn. Quantitative Methods for Business. Harlow: Pearson Education Limited. Read More