Conservation Technology: A Five-Year Forecast - Case Study Example

Conservation Technology: A Five-Year Forecast Executive Summary There are two basic approaches to forecasting: judgmental and statistical. Following a judgmental rather than a statistical approach to events around us, the next five years in conservation technology will be characterized by: emergence of new and more efficient ways of recycling materials and wastes proliferation of materials recovery and recycling businesses emergence and implementation of land use technologies that promotes both natural and commercial forests as strategies to simultaneously meet the twin objectives of biodiversity conservation and carbon-capture proliferation of transports systems and vehicles that use less if not zero non-renewable or difficult-to-renew sources of energy and proliferation of global work systems, policies and tools that would allow personnel to do work in their homes increase in the use of computers not only for conservation but also for designing products, processes, and policy that supports conservation In the situation, the policy of the Obama administration is to lead in the worldwide green war and the United States Navy, as the armed might of the nation in the seas, must be part of leading this war for the nation. Conservation Technology: A Five-Year Forecast Like any other corporate or institutional unit, the U.S. Navy keeps himself abreast of developments and anticipates them. This way the Navy maintains both combat and peacetime readiness and capability to respond proactively and effectively. Sound management of operations requires that acquisition of information cover not only those involving the present but also accurate anticipation of the future and trends. One area that the U.S. Navy must anticipate is the field of conservation technology. This is extremely important because the sheer size of resources that the U.S. Navy commands imposes on him an important obligation to fulfill in conservation. There is a necessity to anticipate the developments in the area of conservation technology for the purpose of utilizing them and contributing concretely to the call of the nation’s President in the green war. We can also view the Nay as a firm. According to Houston (2000), for success, accurate forecast is critical. LITERATURE AND FORECASTING METHOD. Forecasting conservation technology, however, is particularly difficult because the science of conservation itself is relatively new. Further, the science of forecasting itself is also relatively new. Nevertheless, literature says that basically there are only two fundamental forecasting approaches: the judgmental and the numerical. The judgment approach makes use of expert opinion while the numerical basically summarizes trends into lines or curves that supposedly represent how a variable moves across time. The trend line or curve can have represented mathematically. In numerical or statistical forecasting, Goldstein and Gigerenzer (2009) inform that simple statistical forecasting models are better than the more complex ones. We can define technology as the materials available and ways of using the available materials for man’s needs. On the other hand, the Organization of Economies for Cooperation and Development (OECD), through its official website, defines conservation as the “management of the human use of organisms or ecosystems to ensure that such use is sustainable.” However, Conservation International ‘s and the World Wildlife Fund’s operative definition of conservation covers not only the preservation of species but their habitat and ecology as well. Thus, the broad areas or fields in conservation are biodiversity conservation, forest development, conservation of species, and conservation of habitats and ecology. These are also the areas of conservation technology. However, it is also possible to include in the broad area of conservation technology all technologies that have a direct bearing on conservation . Relatedly, ecology refers to the entire environment that enables an organism or specie to survive continuously. TRENDS. What are the current and emerging trends on conservation technology? Hereunder are some of the key points: 1. Growing appreciation on the role of the forest in carbon sequestration. Only a few years ago, forest were deemed important for their role in holding water and maintaining the watershed. Today this point is already being debated but there is no debate on the role of the forest on carbon sequestration. The function of the forest in carbon sequestration is deemed important because of the threat of global warming. Carbon is associated with the so-called greenhouse gases are responsible for the ongoing global warming. 2. Emergence of relatively novel and sound forest development concepts: smart forests or reforestation through timber production. Earlier, non-interference on the forest is seen as the only way for protecting the forest. Today, however, studies are producing evidence for the view that producing trees for commerce can be the best way for ensuring that world’s forests will have trees. If timber growing will become profitable then sustainable profit require a continuous supply of trees from which revenues would come. 3. Greater appreciation for biodiversity conservation. This trend moderates somewhat the point made in the earlier discussion. A forest may have trees but if the trees are not diverse then what is destroyed are not only trees but a habitat for a diverse range of species, an ecology. Biodiversity conservation highlights that what must be conserved are not only individual species but the diversity of species. Biodiversity promotes the availability of food for man given variability and changes in climate variability can mean the lost of certain species. Biodiversity ensures that a specie pool that can directly and indirectly provide food and resources for man continue to persist even with climate variability. 4. Identification and mapping of the most important biodiversity conservation areas of the planet. This is being done largely through the effort of Conservation International with various groups all over the world. The World Wildlife Fund is also at the forefront of identifying areas for conservation. There is also a mapping of areas in which biodiversity is rich although seriously threatened. In some countries key biodiversity conservation areas have already been identified although oftentimes local people are not area aware of their location. 5. Greater appreciation and implementation of waste segregation. A number of countries have experimented on and implemented waste segregation. While it is not clear whether the said countries have succeeded in their programs, the volume of recyclable wastes provides promises of success. Meanwhile, Europe and the United States prefer a waste management system that includes biological and mechanical treatment of wastes but some groups in these localities are also advocating the adoption of waste segregation programs. 6. Successful tests on the use of renewable fuels for transport. This point includes the use of bio-fuels and electricity for automobiles. Electricity is a renewable fuel because it can come from hydroelectric plants. Many countries in Europe, Asia, and America are seriously considering the promotion if not the legislation on the use of green automobiles. It is not far fetched that there will be advocacy for green ships and armament. The U.S. Navy must be highly strong and mobile but it must also be green. 7. A slow but steady increase in the use of energy-efficient buildings and houses. This trend includes the use of natural cooling systems for homes and buildings in warm countries and warm homes and buildings for colder countries. The technology includes homes and buildings that allow natural cooling systems for warm months as well as maximizing the use of solar power, mini-hydro electric power sources, and the like. Some of the technologies are in www.conservationtechnology.com. A number of firms are offering technologies that can tap solar power, wind power, stream power, and hydroelectric power in general. Some of the firms are advertising themselves in websites such as in the http://eetd.lbl.gov or the website of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of the University of California and the U.S. Department of Energy, www.energyefficientbuild.com which is the website of the Energy Efficient Network of Michigan, www.nachi.org that is operated by the International Association of Certified Home Inspectors based in the United States, China, and several other countries. 8. Invention and development of products that support energy efficient homes, buildings, automobile, lighting, machines, and electronics. Thus, we have energy efficient computers, bulbs, solar-powered gadgets, and the like. A number of firms are even concentrating in energy efficient products. This is obvious in www.buyernergyefficient.org that sells even appliances, air conditioners, pool, water heaters, and the like. Other websites concentrating on energy efficient products are www.greenandmore.com, http://boulderenergy.org, and www.efi.org. In short, the market not only policy is pushing technology towards conservation. FIVE-YEAR FORECAST. On the basis of the foregoing, it is highly likely that in the next five years, the following will emerge as among the most salient points of conservation technology: 1. Emergence of new and more efficient as well as commercially viable methods of recycling materials and wastes. Given the growing appreciation and practice for waste segregation, entrepreneurs will inevitably see opportunities, support technological research, and seek profit from the said opportunities. 2. Proliferation of materials recovery and recycling as viable businesses. This follows from the first. As resources become scarce and as countries become more concerned with global warming, material recovery and recycling will become more viable and profitable for many entrepreneurs. The situation will encourage investments and a new boom economic sector can emerge. 3. Emergence and implementation of land-use plans that combine both natural and commercial forests as strategies to meet simultaneously the twin objectives of biodiversity conservation and carbon-capture. More countries will appreciate the wisdom of having commercial forests but select natural forests will be retained. There is even the prospect that some of the cities will consider having natural forests right in their locations. 4. Proliferation of transport systems and vehicles that use less if not zero non-renewable or difficult-to-renew sources of energy. This is logical following the successful tests of several vehicles that use renewable energy sources. This is highly feasible given recent country commitments to take a more radical and decisive approach to global warming. Some countries are even calling for an 80% reduction in carbon emissions and this would imply drastic cuts in the use of cars using fossil fuels. 5. Proliferation of work systems and policies that allow personnel to do work in their homes. Conservation technology will have an impact on the entire gamut of technology itself. Because of conservation concerns, societies will have to design less energy consuming homes or shelters, fuel-efficient engines, and low-energy consuming roads and mode of transport. In effect, conservation technology will cover the entire field of technology itself. Technology ultimately affects conservation. Because of this, the entire gamut of technology that our society will employ must have to be transformed into one that is conservation promoting. 6. Greater utilization of computers not only for conservation but also for designing products, processes, and policy that supports conservation. Although conservation was not foremost in the mind of Bill Gates and other computer designer when they invented the computer and the softwares, computers will be increasingly utilized not only to promote productivity but to design products, systems and processes as well that support conservation. This also implies that the emergence of new products, systems, and processes supporting conservation will accelerate. This is also reflected in the work of a group of computer experts (Renavikar, Patel, Dani, Wakharkar, Arrigotti, Vasudevan, Bchir, Alur, Gurunurthy, and Stage, 2008). For various organizations such as the U.S. Navy, this implies several things. Firstly, the navy must design camp houses and facilities that promote conservation. This means, for instance, that housing and headquarter facilities must consume less energy. Houses and facilities must be built using recyclable and renewable materials. And secondly, transport systems such as the ships and other transport systems of the Navy must use less if not eliminate the use of non-renewable energies. This implies that the U.S. Navy must redesign her ships and other transport facilities today and not later. More than these, however, there is one very important work of the U.S. Navy: it must play an important role in conservation action, especially in times of peace. In particular, the U.S. Navy must be ready to fulfill a role in mobilizing its men and women to save whales and wildlife both at sea and in land bodies. In addition, the US Navy must reduce if not eliminate its disturbances and pollution at seas without sacrificing mobility and capability to monitor enemies and effectively as well as decisively respond to threats to world peace and American interests. The administration of Barack Obama constitutes an important policy change in the United States of America. In his campaign for presidency, Barack Obama expressed his resolve to implement an economy-wide and trade program to reduce greenhouses gases by 2050. Thus, the United States Navy, being a part and parcel of government and the military chain of command in which the Commander-in-Chief is the President of the United States, will have to toe the line and follow the leader. In his foreign policy speech in January 2009, the Obama administration expressed his determination to establish the United States as the global leader in the fight against global warming and in the search and development for renewable and alternative sources of energy. The United States Navy will have to do no less. Therefore, the Navy just like other government agencies of the United States must review its buildings, houses, facilities, equipment, and culture and see if they are consistent with conservation. Given the budget at their disposal, they can decide what products and processes to purchase and patronize. They can hire consultants to review whether their facilities are energy efficient, whether the fuels they use are non-renewable and whether they can convert to fuels that are less or non-harmful to the environment. Most of all, shifting to an era where there is recognition of anthropogenic global warming and climate change calls for a new type of culture and lifestyle. It requires a new moral code and ideals. The U.S. Navy just like the rest of the government agencies and corporations must be prepared to adjust to the new regime. Finally, technologies that conserve or are environment-friendly must be transferred. This is the point of Bosselman (2006). The US Navy can contribute to the task as it circumnavigates the globe. WORKS CITED Bosselman, Klaus. (2006). Poverty Alleviation and Environmental Sustainability Through Improved Regimes of Technology Transfer. Law Environment and Development Journal 2(1). Retrieve June 15, 2009 from http://www.lead-journal.org/content/06019.pdf Goldstein, Daniel and Gerd Gigerenzer. (2009). Fast and Frugal Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting. Abstract retrieved June 15, 2009 from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V92-4WFPPCG-1&_user=10&_coverDate=06%2F05%2F2009&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=browse&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=1c7eeec78812a49361be3bc8efd3c101#aff2 Houston, Shelton. (2000). Surface Mount Technology Market Forecasting. Journal of Industrial Technology 17 (1). Retrieved June 15, 2009 in http://www.nait.org/jit/Articles/houston121800.pdf Organization of Economies for Cooperation and Development (OECD). (n.d.). Definition of conservation. Retrieved June 15, 2009 from http://stats.oecd.org/glossary/search.asp Renavikar, M., N. Patel, A. Dani, V. Wakharkar, G. Arrigoti, V. Vasudevan, O. Behir, A. A. Alur, C. Gurunurthy, and R. Stage. (200). Materials Technology for Environmentally Green Micro-Electronic Packaging. Intel Technology Journal, 12 (1). Retrieved June 15, 2009 from http://download.intel.com/technology/itj/2008/v12i1/vol12issue01.pdf Student Wage. (n.d.). Technological Forecasting. Retrieved June 15, 2009 from http://www.wiley.com/college/dec/meredith298298/resources/addtopics/addtopic_s_02a.html Read More