Operational Oceanography - Research Proposal Example

Oceanography Research Proposal ment of Problem The underlying aim of the project is toexpedite Operational Oceanography in world. User-requirements surveys will highlight the need for enhanced accuracy, reliability, resolution and increased forecast period together with an extension of the parameter range from existing physical parameters to incorporate chemical, biological and ecological aspects. Participants will include a number of the major modeling centers. The selected focus of quantifying sediment fluxes in the North Sea (Gerritsen et al., 24) conveniently embraced tidal, surge and wave dynamics, i.e., the most well-established existing operational forecasting services. Research Proposal The approach adopted will first to assemble comprehensive test-bed observational data sets for both local coastal zones and for the entire North Sea, thence, to develop generic models for tide, surge, wave, turbulence and suspended particulate matter (SPM) simulations. The final stage will involve evaluation of these generic models in simulations against the test-bed data sets. The specific developments might be contrasted with the wider vision for advances in Operational Oceanography presented by Woods et al. (pp. 25) and an accompanying implementation strategy by Prandle and Flemming (pp. 33). As perhaps the first ever attempt to report the wide-ranging, inter-related aspects of developing Operational Forecasting systems, this special issue will constitutes a definable initial milestone. Paper authors will encourage providing a balance between the customary concentration on state-of-the-art progress alongside clear statements of long-standing underlying difficulties. The range of information, including references ranging from latest publications back to the original primary papers, over a wide but coherent field should enable readers to gain a balanced perspective of this topic. The development of generic modules and the ready availability of public domain model codes will be removed much of the mystique that traditionally surrounded marine modeling. The diversity of marine systems will make it unlikely that a single integrated model will evolve as for weather forecasting. However, rationalization of modules within modeling systems will be a recognized goal, together with standardization of prescribed inputs such as bathymetry, tidal boundary conditions, etc. Such enhanced rationalization will enable the essential characteristics of various types of models to be elucidated including the inherent limits to predictability. The WAM wave modeling community will have an outstanding example of the value of such public domain generic codes. The further developments of this code for faster application on finer spatial resolutions required in shallow water is reported here by Monbaliu et al. (pp. 42) Release, during the programme, of the somewhat similar SWAN code has stimulated interest. Likewise, the application of the K-model, reported here by Schneggenburger et al. (pp. 29), extends the capability of such modeling into shallow embayment. The generic single-point k- turbulence model developed by Baumert et al. (pp. 58) makes a corresponding valuable addition to the availability of generic modules. In particular, the incorporation of sediment erosion and deposition under the combined influences of both tidal currents and surface waves will be widely utilized. Subsequent testing of the WAM wave model is described here for Holderness by Prandle et al. (pp. 30). The turbulence is evaluated both at Holderness and in the Dover Strait (Chapalain and Thais, 33), providing useful feedback on performance. The challenges of coupling such modules are addressed by Ozer et al. (pp. 17). Addressing the broad philosophy and practical difficulties, this paper provides insight into future problems to be considered in progressing towards ecological models. Likewise, the success of existing surge wave forecasting models, described by Flather (2000) for the North Sea, is usefully contrasted by Carretero Albiach et al. (pp. 2) when applied to the vastly different shelf conditions. This experience will indicates that whilst standardized, generic modules are perceived as the requisite building blocks of future interdisciplinary, international forecast models — the likely requirement for multiple versions is a reality. Moreover, retention of flexibility at the module level will be both necessary and desirable to accommodate a wide range of applications and to provide ensemble forecasts. Observational data sets Observational data sets will include components of variable or uncertain accuracy and gaps in temporal/spatial coverage. Thus, a major challenge in using such data sets to evaluate model performance will be to balance their mutual deficiencies. The strategy for assembling such data sets, described by Lane et al. (pp. 13) will recognizes this difficulty. The data sets will be accessible via three discrete stages. The first stage will involves a general text/pictorial description of the observational programme — indicating prevailing weather conditions, recurrent instrument or platform problems, etc. The second stage may contain ‘quick-look’ illustrations of the processed/calibrated data, e.g., time series of currents or SPM. The final stage will contain the original raw data. Thus, a ready appreciation of observational shortcomings will be provided together with the possibility of reprocessing where appropriate. Ways forward Formulating observational modeling strategies Fig. 1 (van Ruiten, personal communication) provides a generalized indication of the resolution practicable with existing computing power for baroclinic circulation models of oceans, seas and bays. Real-time forecasting requires simulation times of order 100 times faster than real time. The corresponding estimates for spectral wave modeling are broadly similar. Fig. 1 also provides a representation of the comparable resolution provided by various monitoring systems — remote sensing, ship-borne and fixed networks. Rigorous model evaluation or effective assimilation of observational data into models requires broad compatibility between resolution and accuracy in models and observations — temporally, spatially (horizontal and vertical) and in parameter range. Fig. 1. Spatial and temporal coverage of various observational/monitoring systems (van Ruiten, personal communication). The continuous increase in computing power experienced over the last few decades seems likely to continue for the next decade or more. To take full advantage of this in Operational Oceanography, we need clearer recognition of the necessary related requirements in our planning of monitoring systems. Development of new sensors, commercial production of prototype instruments, international agreements on new satellite programmes and international ship experiments all involve lead times of the order of a decade. There is a pressing urgency to articulate the roles of and synergy between satellite, aircraft, ship, sea surface, seabed and coastal (radar) instrumentation and, likewise, how new assimilation techniques may contribute to bridging gaps in monitoring capabilities. Observer Systems Sensitivity Experiments, wherein the effect of the existence or omission of specific components in a (hypothetical) monitoring system can be identified, are more discussed than implemented. Significance of Research Ocean forecasting involves processes from physics to ecology on scales from micro-turbulence to global ocean circulation with a similarly wide spectra of technologies. Exciting opportunities are presented by the rapid advances in: computational power, monitoring technology and systems, scientific understanding and numerical methods (for both modeling and assimilation). Nonetheless, investment and the associated progress will depend on demonstrable benefits to end users. The pace will be dictated by our ability to collaborate in maximizing the potential of past investments as well as careful planning for the future. Initiatives are needed to develop structured research, development and evaluation programmes to parallel the GOOS plans for the period 2000–2005. The ultimate goal is a fusion of environmental data and knowledge, utilizing fully the communications and computational capacities. Subsequent development of comprehensive ecological forecasting in the coastal zone may not necessarily proceed by direct extension of the methods outlined above. More innovative methodologies may be appropriate for such fundamental challenges. The stimulus provided in the USA by the open ‘public domain’ philosophy adopted for both observational data and model codes should serve as a challenge. Plan This research plan is divided into 3 months. During first month there will be a collection of preliminary information, sample selection, in second month the observations will be recorded, in last month there will be analysis and interpretation of the survey responses, and the report will be finalize. The cost approximation for this project is ranged from $500 to $1000. Works Cited Baumert, H., Chapalain, G., Smaoui, H., McManus, J.P., Yagi, H., Regener, M., Sündermann, J., Szilagy, B., 2000. Modelling and numerical simulation of turbulence, waves and suspended sediment for pre-operational use in coastal seas. Pp. 55-59 Chapalain, G., Thais, L., 2000. Tide, turbulence and suspended sediment modelling in the eastern English Channel. Pp. 33 Flather, R.A., 2000. Existing operational oceanography. Gerritsen, H., Vos, R.J., van der Kaaij, Th., Lane, A., Boon, J.G., 2000. Suspended sediment modelling in a shelf sea (North Sea). Pp. 24. Monbaliu, J., Padilla-Hérnandez, R., Hargreaves, J.C., Carretero Albiach, J.C., Luo, W., Sclavo, M., Günther, H., 2000. The spectral wave model WAM adapted for applications with high spatial resolution. Pp. 42-45 Prandle, D., Flemming, N.C. (Eds.), 1998. The science base of EuroGOOS, EuroGOOS Publication No. 6., Southampton Oceanography Centre, Southampton. ISBN 0-904175-30-8. Schneggenburger, C., Günther, H., Rosenthal, W., 2000. Spectral wave modelling with non-linear dissipation: validation and application in a coastal tidal environment. Pp. 27-30 Woods, J.D., Dahlin, H., Droppert, L., Glass, M., Vallerga, S., Flemming, N.C., 1996. The strategy for EuroGOOS. EuroGOOS Publication No. 1, Southampton Oceanography Centre, Southampton, ISBN 0-904175-22-7. Read More