Unemployment Rate in Virginia State for a Period of 66 Years - Research Paper Example

Unemployment rate Introduction Unemployment is a situation when individuals have no work and are aggressively looking for jobs. Unemployment rate is the gauge of prevalence of joblessness and it is inform of percentage by dividing the unemployed people by all individual who are currently working. In most cases, the economy witnesses high unemployment rates during times of recession (Cross, 1995). Bockerman and Ilmakunnas (2009) stated, “there are more than 197 million people who are not working in the whole world” (pg. 79). According to Rifkin (1995), those people with no work cannot earn enough money to sustain their day to day financial requirements. They cannot secure mortgage payments or rent and this makes them to become homeless by deportation or foreclosure. This research paper is about the unemployment rate in Virginia State for a period of 66 years. It aims to find out how lack of employment affects time that consumers spend in a retail store. It clearly highlights how unemployment rate can be used to measure the level in which an inventory can keep its stock. The unemployment rates results obtained are essential in enabling the retail store to plan on how to keep its stocks. This is because when the number of unemployed people increases with time, very few people will go to the retail store for the purchase of goods. The yearly mean rate calculation Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Annual rate Yearly Mean rate 1948 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0 45.0 3.75 1949 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6 72.6 6.05 1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3 62.5 5.21 1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1 39.4 3.28 1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 36.3 3.03 1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5 35.1 2.93 1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0 67.1 5.59 1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 52.4 4.37 1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2 49.5 4.13 1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2 51.6 4.30 1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2 82.1 6.84 1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3 65.4 5.45 1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6 66.5 5.54 1961 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.1 6.0 80.3 6.69 1962 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.5 66.8 5.57 1963 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5 67.7 5.64 1964 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.0 61.9 5.16 1965 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 54.1 4.51 1966 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8 45.5 3.79 1967 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 46.1 3.84 1968 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 42.7 3.56 1969 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 41.9 3.49 1970 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1 59.8 4.98 1971 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0 71.4 5.95 1972 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.2 67.2 5.60 1973 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.9 58.3 4.86 1974 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.2 67.7 5.64 1975 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2 101.7 8.48 1976 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 92.4 7.70 1977 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.4 84.6 7.05 1978 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.0 72.8 6.07 1979 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 70.2 5.85 1980 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 86.1 7.18 1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5 91.4 7.62 1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8 116.5 9.71 1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3 115.2 9.60 1984 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3 90.1 7.51 1985 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 86.3 7.19 1986 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6 84.0 7.00 1987 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.7 74.1 6.18 1988 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 65.9 5.49 1989 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 63.1 5.26 1990 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3 67.4 5.62 1991 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.3 82.2 6.85 1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4 89.9 7.49 1993 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5 82.9 6.91 1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 73.2 6.10 1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 67.1 5.59 1996 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 64.9 5.41 1997 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 59.3 4.94 1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 54.0 4.50 1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 50.6 4.22 2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 47.6 3.97 2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 56.9 4.74 2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0 69.4 5.78 2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7 71.9 5.99 2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 66.5 5.54 2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 61.0 5.08 2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 55.3 4.61 2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0 55.4 4.62 2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3 69.6 5.80 2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9 111.4 9.28 2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.3 115.5 9.63 2011 9.1 9.0 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.5 107.1 8.93 2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.8 96.9 8.08 2013 7.9                       7.9 7.90 Scatter diagram and regression line Slope of linear regression line Change in x axis X1 = 1964, X2 = 1972 = 0.44 Change in y axis Y1 = 5.16, Y2 = 5.6 = 8 Slope =(0.44/8) = 0.055 Y - intercept Y=AX+B Y1 =5.16 X1 = 17 A =0.055 B= Y-AX B = 17 - (0.055*5.16) B = 4.225 Y intercept = 4.225 Linear Equation Y = A*X+B Y= 0.935X+4.225 Unemployment rate in 2016 Y= 0.055*69+4.225 Y = 8.02 Residual of each year Year Residual of each year Year Residual of each year Year Residual of each year 1948 0.00 1970 1.49 1992 0.64 1949 2.30 1971 0.97 1993 -0.58 1950 -0.84 1972 -0.35 1994 -0.81 1951 -1.93 1973 -0.74 1995 -0.51 1952 -0.26 1974 0.78 1996 -0.18 1953 -0.10 1975 2.83 1997 -0.47 1954 2.67 1976 -0.78 1998 -0.44 1955 -1.23 1977 -0.65 1999 -0.28 1956 -0.24 1978 -0.98 2000 -0.25 1957 0.18 1979 -0.22 2001 0.78 1958 2.54 1980 1.33 2002 1.04 1959 -1.39 1981 0.44 2003 0.21 1960 0.09 1982 2.09 2004 -0.45 1961 1.15 1983 -0.11 2005 -0.46 1962 -1.13 1984 -2.09 2006 -0.48 1963 0.07 1985 -0.32 2007 0.01 1964 -0.48 1986 -0.19 2008 1.18 1965 -0.65 1987 -0.82 2009 3.48 1966 -0.72 1988 -0.68 2010 0.34 1967 0.05 1989 -0.23 2011 -0.70 1968 -0.28 1990 0.36 2012 -0.85 1969 -0.07 1991 1.23 2013 -0.17 Unemployment rate for Alabama State from January 2003 to February 2013 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Annual rate Yearly mean 2003 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 64.5 5.38 2004 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 60.2 5.02 2005 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 45.8 3.82 2006 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 41.5 3.46 2007 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 40.8 3.40 2008 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.2 60.1 5.01 2009 7.9 8.6 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 117.7 9.81 2010 10.4 10.3 10.1 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 111.7 9.31 2011 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.5 103.9 8.66 2012 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.8 87.4 7.28 2013 6.9 7.2                     14.1 7.05 Scatter diagram and linear regression line Change in X axis X1 = 4, X2 = 8 = 4 Change in Y axis Y1 = 2003, Y2 = 2012 = 9 Slope = (4/9) = 0.44 Y intercept Y =A*X +B X2 = 8, Y = 9 9 =(0.44*8)+B B = 9-(0.44*8) B= 5.48 Y = 0.44*A +5.48 Interpretation of results for Alabama State from January 2003 to date The linear regression line of the model is within range of the collected values of unemployment rates. As times increases, the unemployment rate also goes up significantly. These results imply that the retail store should regulate its stock because the rates of people who have no jobs go up with time. The retail store management responsible should put necessary measures in place in order to curb the situation. Interpretation of values and results for Virginia State From the scatter diagram and linear regression line above, as time increases the unemployment rate also goes up. There number of people without jobs increase significantly. The overall incremental rate from one year to the other is 0.055. The results also indicate that the unemployment rate is 4.225 during first year of analysis. The data that the company used was extracted from Bureau Labor of Statistics website. I have used descriptive statistics to analyze the give set of data. Findings As time increases, the unemployment rate also goes up proportionally. The retail store should use the unemployment rate to determine the level of stock to be kept in order to avoid overstocking and take advantage of the market to lower the prices. I believe in the values provided because it was extracted from a reliable source. Conclusion In conclusion, Bockerman and Ilmakunnas (2009) stated that there are many people globally who are unemployed. This is an issue of great concern and the governments for various states should come up with appropriate strategies so as to deal with the issue of unemployment. From the scatter diagram of Virginia State the unemployment rate is expected to increase with time at an overall rate of 0.055. This predicts that the level of sales for the retail will be reducing as time goes by. This implies that management of the retail store will have to reduce the stock as the level of unemployment increases. References Bockerman, P., and Ilmakunnas, P. (2009). Unemployment and self-assessed health: Evidence from panel data: Health Economics 18(2): 161 – 179: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Bureau Labor of Statistics retrieved from: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST01000003 on 12/04/2013. Cross, R. (1995). The natural Rate of Unemployment: Reflection of 25 years of the hypothesis: Cambridge University press. Rifkin, J. (1995). The End of Work: the Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the post-Market Era: Putnam Publishing Group: ISBN 0-87477-779-8. Read More