Isolation of Police on Crime Causal Effects Abstract The main objective of this study was based on car theft information that was obtained from the police. It was also based on the theory that crime can decrease in the presence of the police…
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After a terrorist attack that took place in July 1994, Argentina, the main Jewish center in Buenos Aires, it led to all Jewish institutions receiving police protection. Hence, this hideous event initiated a police force geographical allocation that can be presumed exogenous in a crime regression. Using data on the car thefts after and before the attack, the study found out a significant effect of police on crime. The impact was observed to be local, with no impact outside the small area where the police were deployed. Introduction In the study a different approach has been presented to estimate the police on crime causal effect. Terrorists exploded a bomb on July 18, 1994 that brought down the Asociacion Mutual Israelita Argentina (A.M.I.A.), which is the key Jewish center in Argentina. This saw 85 persons dyeing and at least 300 were injured in the attack. The federal government had to assign police one week later in order to protect every Muslim and Jewish building in the country. These were done because the institutions’ geographical distribution was presumed to be ‘exogenous in a crime regression,’ this hideous event is composed of a natural experiment where the simultaneous determination of police presence and crime might be broken. The motor vehicle thefts number per block information was collected in 3 neighborhoods in Buenos Aires after and before the terrorist attack. The information includes a period of 9 month starting April 1 to December 31, 1994. Information on each Jewish institution location in these neighborhoods was also collected. There was then an estimation of the police presence effect on car theft. The estimates indicated that blocks which received police protection had substantially fewer car thefts as compared to the rest of the neighborhoods. There was no evidence that the presence of police in a certain block reduced car theft one or two blocks that was away from the buildings which were protected. There has been a major interest to identify the mechanisms where presence of police reduces crime. Is it that the presence of police results to criminal activity to be less attractive or is it that police men arrested criminals and few of them were left around to com- on car thefts? The total number of car thefts per block was used as the dependent Variable; this gave a panel with nine observations for every given block. This data on blocks without and with protected institutions enabled us to define a control and treatment group. Month fixed effects were included that controlled any aggregate shocks in the crime evolution. The main procedure utilized in this study was regression analysis. It was utilized to explain the total variation of the dependent variable, Car theft. The dependent variable was accompanied by 9 variables, which were tested against the dependent variable to determine how much of the total variation is explained. The analyses also discussed the comparison of the different regression models, and determine which model is the most effective. In regards to the regression analysis results, it is clearly evident that model 2 is the strongest. The independent variables including street, dummy Jews institution one block away, block distance to closest institution and dummy gas station were omitted and not included in the second model because there P value was greater than 0.05 implying the data collected was either not valid or there was no enough evidence to make
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