Exploring the Factors that Account for a Reduction in Crime - Essay Example

Exploring the Factors that Account for a Reduction in Crime For decades, violence in America has been a major concern, especially with the increase in violence that occurred in the mid-1980s, especially among the youth of the inner cities. Surprisingly, however, crime levels in the cities took a sharp decline beginning in the early 90s followed soon after by school shootings and violence in the suburbs. While statistics showed that there had been a tremendous drop in crime rates in America toward the end of the 20th century, these numbers were incapable of delivering the explanation for why this might be so. A number of politicians and other self-interest parties proposed numerous explanations, many of which featured their own activities as a reason for the decline. Somewhat supporting the claim for the police, yet at the same time not, President Clinton pointed to increased funding for police as the reason for these changes. Other possible reasons include increased imprisonment, aging baby boomers and a stronger economy. Before 1965, the homicide rate in the United States remained fairly steady at less than 5 for every 100,000 population. After 1965, crime rates rose to somewhere between 8 and 10 homicides per 100,000 then fell slightly and then rose again going into the 1990s. The next decline occurred around 1992, eventually dropping to less than 6 per 100,000 in 1999. Explanations for these turns have been many. The late 1960s and early 1970s were marked by tremendous pressures and challenges to social and governmental authority with the Civil Rights Movement and the Vietnam war. The reduction in crime in the 1980s was generally attributed to the aging baby boom generation as these individuals grew out of statistically proven high crime ages. Moving into the 1990s, drugs, particularly the more affordable, readily available and highly addictive substance crack, was determined to have been the cause of the new growth in urban crime. Claiming credit for the reduction in crime, William Bratton, the former police commissioner of New York City, suggests the reduction was a result of police initiatives, claims supported by the institution of other innovative programs in Boston (Kennedy, Piehl and Braga, 1996). A greater number of uniformed police in open areas and visible locations was indicated as a component of deterring crime simply through their presence. New technologies and investigative techniques allowed detectives to solve a higher number of violent crimes with increasing complexity and a hard line approach to any crime that might decrease citizen’s safety or quality of life further deterred even petty crimes. More than simply encouraging criminals in New York to abstain from crime, career criminals found it more convenient to move to a new town than to deal with these more assertive techniques. Perhaps providing the most support for Bratton’s claims, the police force grew by as much as 45 percent between 1995 and 2001, which has been demonstrated to have an effect on reducing crime (Marvell & Moody, 1996). During the 1990s, the number of police officers hired per capita increased by approximately 14 percent. The increased police force can be reasonably said to have reduced crime by approximately one fifth and one tenth of all crime and, while the costs are difficult to quantify, analyses have indicated a positive cost benefit in the investment in a larger police force. While it is admitted that policing must play a large role in this equation as the first line of response to violent activities, and it is true that the 1990s were rich with new innovations in policing techniques, it is difficult to establish the degree to which this played a role (Wilson, 1985). Innovations were introduced as they were formed rather than as a controlled experiment and crime rates were seen to decline even in precincts where the police force was poorly managed or otherwise demoralized. If police presence was the reason for the decline in homicide rates, rates of murders contained indoors should have remained steady, but they were also seen to decline suggesting other explanations are necessary. In addition, the decline began in 1990 before many of these innovations were put in place. While more old cases were solved as a result of the new detective strategies, the percentage of current cases solved remained relatively steady and murder rates seemed to be unaffected by zero tolerance policies on minor crimes. Gun control laws are important in this discussion as nearly two thirds of all homicides taking place in the United States involve a firearm (Cook & Ludwig, 1996). The concept that the easy access to firearms has an important impact on the homicide rates in this country is supported by Duggan (2001). Yet, changes in handgun laws were seen to have little to on impact on crime rates through the 1990s. This is not surprising based on fact that most violent criminals do not obtain their firearms through licensed sources (Wright & Rossi, 1994). Other programs, such as gun buy-back programs have been proven to be similarly ineffective for a variety of reasons including intention for use, ease of replacement and probability of use for crime (Callahan et al, 1994; Kennedy et al, 1996; Rosenfeld, 1996; Reuter and Mouzos, 2003). Earlier gun control policies enacted in 1976 and 1982 had similar disappointing results (Loftin, McDowall, Weirsema and Cottey, 1991). Concealed weapons laws have actually been shown to have a positive effect on crime rates, that is, they contribute to an escalation in crime (Black and Nagin, 1998; Ludwig, 1998; Duggan, 2001; Ayres and Donohue, 2003). The police were not the only entity credited with having a hand in the decrease in crime rates, though. The criminal justice system took a similar strong approach to crime as a much higher number of offenders brought forward were sent to prison institutions and the death penalty was reinstated (Kuziemko & Levitt, 2003). This effectively prevented them from committing further crime as well as served as warning to similar criminals of the new tactics (Ehrlich, 1975, 1977; Dezhbakhah et al, 2002; Mocan & Gittings, 2003). Incarceration numbers saw a dramatic increase halfway through the 1970s, which supports the contention that this made a positive impact on crime rates overall. However, there are some inconsistencies in the seeming correlation. The primary cause of the expanding prison population was thanks to an increase in time served. While the number of arrests increased, the rates of imprisonment can be seen to have declined following 1992 when crime rates were also seen to fall. By the same token, the 1980s saw tremendous increases in violent crime as well as high rates of incarceration. The length of time involved in carrying out the death penalty further reduces its effectiveness (Katz, Levitt & Shustorovich, 2003). By contrast, gang violence has a much higher rate of death, further reducing the argument that a fear of death would deter crime. Finally, expenses involved in maintaining incarceration total approximately $50 billion per year. Based on this figure, it is deemed more expedient to spend money on increasing the police force rather than maintaining incarceration even as it is acknowledged that the above figure is probably low given the probable total of indirect costs associated with prison maintenance. Age does seem to be a valid indicator of potential crime rates as different age groups tend to participate in different types of crime. For example, most of the crime committed in the late 1980s was shown to have been committed by offenders under the age of 25. The role of incarceration and drug use in rates of crime is demonstrated through the greater incarceration of many of the older drug sellers, making room for younger, primarily African-American inner city youths to take their positions. This younger movement introduced a greater incidence of violence and gun use. By contrast, crime committed by those over the age of 25 have been seen to decline through the 1980s. Rather than having any clear explanation for this older age drop in crime levels, it is assumed that the United States is experiencing a cultural change in which there is a growing aversion to interpersonal violence and greater social assistance programs. The decrease in youth crime is attributed to a reduction in the drug market as a result of the increasingly high prices in human life and finances and more effective programs to keep young people in school. While it has been demonstrated that an older population is less likely to participate in crime, especially violent crime, and that the baby boom generation has aged out of the highest risk factor age group, there are other factors that must also be taken into account. For example, as the baby boomers have aged, so has the echo generation begun to mature into their risky years – between 15 and 24. Moreover, this generation is expected to comprise a greater percentage of the population (20 percent) by 2010, as compared to 18.7 percent in 1980. Overall changes in the age distribution of the population has been determined by Levitt (1999) to have only reduced violent crime by a few percentage points while it seems to have reduced property crime by as much as 5 or 6 percentage points. In addition, shifts in the racial demographics have also thrown the statistics off balance as the percentage of black citizens increased between 1990 and 2000, introducing an element that has higher crime rates that all other Americans, especially homicide rates (Sampson & Lauritsen, 1997). As has been mentioned, the drug scene dwindled in the early years of the 1990s for a variety of reasons. To begin with, the youth who were attracted to the business were lured by the promise of large amounts of money with little to no training (Levitt and Venkatesh, 2000). However, as the risks grew, so the appeal diminished. Because business resolution could not take place in more restrained and civilized manner, drug disputes became increasingly violent, exacerbated by the potentially large amounts of cash carried by these individuals and the resulting robbery this encouraged. As the business became more and more dangerous, the profit margin decreased, the risk/reward factors were significantly reduced and police efforts also forced the drug market underground, reducing waves of violence through the streets, but also making it more difficult for drug sellers to operate. Finally, an upturn in the economy and increased social efforts encouraged more and more youth to seek more respectable, legitimate employment. The reduction of violence on the streets encouraged legitimate business owners to re-open shops, introducing a boom in the economy that encouraged a turn away from violence and toward progressive, legitimate aims. According to statistics, the unemployment rate fell from 6.8 percent in 1991 to 4.8 percent in 2001 and the GDP per capita grew by 30 percent during the same period. Stresses on poor people were alleviated, a significant factor in the reduction of crime as street criminals are disproportionately pulled from this level of society. With more jobs created in the second half of the 1990s, more people were able to transition themselves off of the welfare roll books and into legitimate, sustaining employment. According to economic models of crime (Becker, 1968), this is indeed a significant factor in reducing financially motivated crime, but is less impacting on violent crime. Other studies (Freeman, 1995; Machin & Meghir, 2000; Gould et al, 1997; Donohue & Levitt, 2001; Raphael & Winter-Ebmer, 2001) also suggest that the reduction in property crime generally reflects differences in the unemployment rate while substantiating the claim that violent crime rates do not. If economic gain has any effect on violent crime, then, it is due to increased funding available to police departments and prison systems. An influx of law-abiding immigrants and a boom in social programs to reduce violence and retain children in schools has also demonstrated a great deal of effectiveness in reducing violent crime. Increasing focus on at-risk youth initiated many new programs that have been successful not only in keeping youth in school, but also in increasing the number of students enrolling in two and four year colleges. The cultural shift that has been seen among the older population is also reflected in the younger population and more and more teenagers indicate strong values toward law enforcement, civilized dispute resolution and legitimate job application. While there are some discrepancies in the reports, such as the fact that the poverty rates of black and Hispanic New Yorkers did not change despite falling incidents of violent crime, there are some theories regarding this as well. Unemployment rates for Hispanic men were seen to fall slightly. Coupled with the increased numbers of youth seeking legitimate employment, there is less competition at the lowest level of society for jobs within the underground economy of off-the-books yet still non-violent jobs. With this decrease in competition, it is theorized that more and more of those making up the unemployment figures have been able to secure employment in some of these sectors, thereby reducing their need to rely on criminal activities to support themselves and their families. While several explanations have been brought forward regarding the factors that have contributed to a recent reduction in violent crime in America, study must still be conducted to analyze these factors in more detail. It is unlikely that any one factor was solely responsible for the shift, yet understanding of which factors contributed greatly, as well as understanding of which factors are only incidental, can help law enforcement and other agencies determine more effective means of addressing violent crime in the future. As this overview has demonstrated, there are some specific factors that seem to have an unquestionable relationship to the reduction of violent crime in the cities. One of these is a focus on higher education, enabling the youth of the nation to find legitimate and well-paid employment off of the streets and outside of the drug cartels. Not only does this increase the intellectual capacity of the nation, provide individual students with a greater chance for career development and advancement and contribute to the nation’s assets, but a focus on education acquisition also has the beneficial side effect of reducing the number of individuals who place value on illegitimate street culture. The influx of law-abiding immigrants has also been shown to have a beneficial effect by adding additional eyes on the streets to countervail crime and to bring the number of criminal elements into a minority. The good example shown by hard-working immigrants also serves as encouragement to native youths to take advantage of their opportunities and expand their minds to embrace a diversity of cultures. Finally, job creation providing meaningful occupations and decent living wages to those individuals who have been living at or below subsistence levels serves numerous purposes as well. Not only do they provide these people with a means of removing themselves from welfare roll books, but they instill a sense of pride and accomplishment, encourage legitimate pursuits, reduce the need to participate in criminal activities as a means of support and make room in less violent off-the-books jobs for those individuals who remain uneducated or otherwise incapable of holding down other types of jobs. The ability to support oneself and one’s family also has a tendency of reducing the number of individuals engaged in the use of illegal drug substances or participate in excessive drinking as a means of escaping intolerable living conditions. Because of the doubts and discrepancies seen in the legal efforts to reduce crime, such as zero tolerance policies for petty crimes and higher rates of incarceration, these efforts are not seen as among the most effective strategies for reducing violent crime. Instead, this survey demonstrates that much more study is required before the relative benefits of these measures can be asserted. Read More