National Risk Assessment of Brazil - Report Example

National Risk Assessment of Brazil Name: Tutor: Course: Date: Table of contents National Risk Assessment of Brazil 1 Name: 1 Tutor: 1 Course: 1 Date: 1 Table of contents 2 List of Figures 5 List of Tables 6 NATIONAL RISKS REGISTER: BRAZIL 7 1.0 Background of the risk report 7 2.0 Identification and Description of National risks: Brazil 8 c) Mudslides and floods 9 Combinations of physical and human causes are behind the floods and mudslides in Brazil. In 2011, Rio de Janeiro state experienced mudslides and floods with a death toll rising to 541 (Fox News, 2011). This was the worst-ever natural disaster in the country. In January 2014, Sao Paolo flooded and was declared a state of calamity after mudslides and floods claimed lives of more than 10 people and about 10 others were missing in southeast Brazil. A landslide in Natal region in mid 2014 city destroyed 25 houses (Fox news, 2014). 9 d) Environmental degradation 9 The Brazilian rainforests especially the Amazon is under threat from predatory logging and deforestation (Sawyer, 2008, p. 1748). This leads to climate change and affects regional biodiversity. Other practices such as illegal cattle ranching and agriculture have devastating effects on the water resources, food and environment. Deforestation and cattle ranching has caused wanton killing of Jaguars and other forest carnivores. When forests and important vegetation are under threat from loggers and ranchers, the nation is likely to experience encroaching desertification and severe damage to livelihoods. 9 e) Malaria and dengue fever 9 Brazil reports more than 400,000 cases of Malaria and dengue fever annually owing to proximity to the wet Amazonia forest and swamps (Lesser, 2013). This is considered as a national risk because expanding geographical distribution of mosquito vectors and dengue viruses, and urbanization in Brazil is bringing more people into contact with the viruses. Common breeding grounds for mosquitoes are solid waste disposal services and household water storage. 9 f) Pollution 9 Brazil has many industries with high pollution potential with minimal mitigation measures taken (Young, 2002, p. 11). This is because the country is investing in high intensive industries in food and agro processing. Cities such as Sao Paolo are highly polluted city followed by Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte. These cities also suffer from nitrogen oxides and acetaldehyde that have substantial effect on the ozone layer. Brazil is home to about 13 percent of all known flora and fauna species. This biodiversity is threatened by industrialization and agriculture, and with increased trade liberalization, the country is experiencing high concentrations of pollution-intensive export industries (Sawyer, 2008). Export-related industries such as footwear, paper and cellulose, and metallurgy report the highest of levels of pollution intensity. 9 g) Criminal gangs 10 In the last 10 years more than 57,000 people have been murdered in the Brazilian state of Rio de Janeiro (Grillo, 2014). This criminality and violence to a greater extent can be linked to drug trafficking and arms operations by organized crime groups. Important security advances by Brazil in the recent years has been an innovative UPP security program to rid off criminal gangs. The most serious threat comes from two largest domestic criminal gangs; Comando Vermelho and the Primeiro Comando Capital – PCC (Grillo, 2014). These gangs are becoming increasingly engaged in kidnapping rings at home, international drug trade, and the operating extortion. Militia groups carry out extrajudicial killings, extort entire neighborhoods, and are source of violent crime. 10 2.1 Risk Analysis 11 2.1.1 Classification of probability 11 2.1.2 Classification of Impact 12 Table 1: National Risk Assessment Matrix – Brazil 14 Table 2: National Losses 18 3.0 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 20 Figure 1: Fault Tree diagram for National Loss 22 4.0 Funds allocation to the national risks 22 Figure 2a: Pie chart of funds allocation to national risks 23 Figure 2b: Bar graph of funds allocation to national risks 23 Table 3: Allocation of funds to risks 24 4.0 Conclusion 27 Reference list 28 Feitosa, SF Gararfa, V Cornelli, G Tarvido, C Carbalho, SJ 2010, Bioethics, culture and infanticide in Brazilian indigenous communities: the Zuruahá case, Cad. Saúde Pública vol.26 no.5, p. 10-19. 28 Grillo, I 2014, Brazil’s police struggle to pacify gang-run slums, 30 September, 2014. http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?id=183850 28 International Labor Organization (ILO), 2008, Forced labor in Brazil: 120 years after the abolition of slavery, the fight goes on, 13 May, 2008. http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/features/WCMS_092663/lang--en/index.htm 28 Sawyer, D 2008, Climate change, biofuels and eco-social impacts in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado, Biological Sciences, Vol. 363, no. 1498, p. 1747–1752. 29 List of Figures National Risk Assessment of Brazil 1 Name: 1 Tutor: 1 Course: 1 Date: 1 Table of contents 2 List of Figures 5 List of Tables 8 NATIONAL RISKS REGISTER: BRAZIL 9 1.0 Background of the risk report 9 2.0 Identification and Description of National risks: Brazil 10 c) Mudslides and floods 11 Combinations of physical and human causes are behind the floods and mudslides in Brazil. In 2011, Rio de Janeiro state experienced mudslides and floods with a death toll rising to 541 (Fox News, 2011). This was the worst-ever natural disaster in the country. In January 2014, Sao Paolo flooded and was declared a state of calamity after mudslides and floods claimed lives of more than 10 people and about 10 others were missing in southeast Brazil. A landslide in Natal region in mid 2014 city destroyed 25 houses (Fox news, 2014). 11 d) Environmental degradation 11 The Brazilian rainforests especially the Amazon is under threat from predatory logging and deforestation (Sawyer, 2008, p. 1748). This leads to climate change and affects regional biodiversity. Other practices such as illegal cattle ranching and agriculture have devastating effects on the water resources, food and environment. Deforestation and cattle ranching has caused wanton killing of Jaguars and other forest carnivores. When forests and important vegetation are under threat from loggers and ranchers, the nation is likely to experience encroaching desertification and severe damage to livelihoods. 11 e) Malaria and dengue fever 11 Brazil reports more than 400,000 cases of Malaria and dengue fever annually owing to proximity to the wet Amazonia forest and swamps (Lesser, 2013). This is considered as a national risk because expanding geographical distribution of mosquito vectors and dengue viruses, and urbanization in Brazil is bringing more people into contact with the viruses. Common breeding grounds for mosquitoes are solid waste disposal services and household water storage. 11 f) Pollution 11 Brazil has many industries with high pollution potential with minimal mitigation measures taken (Young, 2002, p. 11). This is because the country is investing in high intensive industries in food and agro processing. Cities such as Sao Paolo are highly polluted city followed by Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte. These cities also suffer from nitrogen oxides and acetaldehyde that have substantial effect on the ozone layer. Brazil is home to about 13 percent of all known flora and fauna species. This biodiversity is threatened by industrialization and agriculture, and with increased trade liberalization, the country is experiencing high concentrations of pollution-intensive export industries (Sawyer, 2008). Export-related industries such as footwear, paper and cellulose, and metallurgy report the highest of levels of pollution intensity. 11 g) Criminal gangs 12 In the last 10 years more than 57,000 people have been murdered in the Brazilian state of Rio de Janeiro (Grillo, 2014). This criminality and violence to a greater extent can be linked to drug trafficking and arms operations by organized crime groups. Important security advances by Brazil in the recent years has been an innovative UPP security program to rid off criminal gangs. The most serious threat comes from two largest domestic criminal gangs; Comando Vermelho and the Primeiro Comando Capital – PCC (Grillo, 2014). These gangs are becoming increasingly engaged in kidnapping rings at home, international drug trade, and the operating extortion. Militia groups carry out extrajudicial killings, extort entire neighborhoods, and are source of violent crime. 12 2.1 Risk Analysis 13 2.1.1 Classification of probability 13 2.1.2 Classification of Impact 14 Table 1: National Risk Assessment Matrix – Brazil 16 Table 2: National Losses 20 3.0 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 22 Figure 1: Fault Tree diagram for National Loss 24 4.0 Funds allocation to the national risks 24 Figure 2a: Pie chart of funds allocation to national risks 25 Figure 2b: Bar graph of funds allocation to national risks 25 Table 3: Allocation of funds to risks 26 4.0 Conclusion 29 Reference list 30 Feitosa, SF Gararfa, V Cornelli, G Tarvido, C Carbalho, SJ 2010, Bioethics, culture and infanticide in Brazilian indigenous communities: the Zuruahá case, Cad. Saúde Pública vol.26 no.5, p. 10-19. 30 Grillo, I 2014, Brazil’s police struggle to pacify gang-run slums, 30 September, 2014. http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?id=183850 30 International Labor Organization (ILO), 2008, Forced labor in Brazil: 120 years after the abolition of slavery, the fight goes on, 13 May, 2008. http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/features/WCMS_092663/lang--en/index.htm 30 Sawyer, D 2008, Climate change, biofuels and eco-social impacts in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado, Biological Sciences, Vol. 363, no. 1498, p. 1747–1752. 31 List of Tables National Risk Assessment of Brazil 1 Name: 1 Tutor: 1 Course: 1 Date: 1 Table of contents 2 List of Figures 5 List of Tables 8 NATIONAL RISKS REGISTER: BRAZIL 11 1.0 Background of the risk report 11 2.0 Identification and Description of National risks: Brazil 12 c) Mudslides and floods 13 Combinations of physical and human causes are behind the floods and mudslides in Brazil. In 2011, Rio de Janeiro state experienced mudslides and floods with a death toll rising to 541 (Fox News, 2011). This was the worst-ever natural disaster in the country. In January 2014, Sao Paolo flooded and was declared a state of calamity after mudslides and floods claimed lives of more than 10 people and about 10 others were missing in southeast Brazil. A landslide in Natal region in mid 2014 city destroyed 25 houses (Fox news, 2014). 13 d) Environmental degradation 13 The Brazilian rainforests especially the Amazon is under threat from predatory logging and deforestation (Sawyer, 2008, p. 1748). This leads to climate change and affects regional biodiversity. Other practices such as illegal cattle ranching and agriculture have devastating effects on the water resources, food and environment. Deforestation and cattle ranching has caused wanton killing of Jaguars and other forest carnivores. When forests and important vegetation are under threat from loggers and ranchers, the nation is likely to experience encroaching desertification and severe damage to livelihoods. 13 e) Malaria and dengue fever 13 Brazil reports more than 400,000 cases of Malaria and dengue fever annually owing to proximity to the wet Amazonia forest and swamps (Lesser, 2013). This is considered as a national risk because expanding geographical distribution of mosquito vectors and dengue viruses, and urbanization in Brazil is bringing more people into contact with the viruses. Common breeding grounds for mosquitoes are solid waste disposal services and household water storage. 13 f) Pollution 13 Brazil has many industries with high pollution potential with minimal mitigation measures taken (Young, 2002, p. 11). This is because the country is investing in high intensive industries in food and agro processing. Cities such as Sao Paolo are highly polluted city followed by Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte. These cities also suffer from nitrogen oxides and acetaldehyde that have substantial effect on the ozone layer. Brazil is home to about 13 percent of all known flora and fauna species. This biodiversity is threatened by industrialization and agriculture, and with increased trade liberalization, the country is experiencing high concentrations of pollution-intensive export industries (Sawyer, 2008). Export-related industries such as footwear, paper and cellulose, and metallurgy report the highest of levels of pollution intensity. 13 g) Criminal gangs 14 In the last 10 years more than 57,000 people have been murdered in the Brazilian state of Rio de Janeiro (Grillo, 2014). This criminality and violence to a greater extent can be linked to drug trafficking and arms operations by organized crime groups. Important security advances by Brazil in the recent years has been an innovative UPP security program to rid off criminal gangs. The most serious threat comes from two largest domestic criminal gangs; Comando Vermelho and the Primeiro Comando Capital – PCC (Grillo, 2014). These gangs are becoming increasingly engaged in kidnapping rings at home, international drug trade, and the operating extortion. Militia groups carry out extrajudicial killings, extort entire neighborhoods, and are source of violent crime. 14 2.1 Risk Analysis 15 2.1.1 Classification of probability 15 2.1.2 Classification of Impact 16 Table 1: National Risk Assessment Matrix – Brazil 18 Table 2: National Losses 22 3.0 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 24 Figure 1: Fault Tree diagram for National Loss 26 4.0 Funds allocation to the national risks 26 Figure 2a: Pie chart of funds allocation to national risks 27 Figure 2b: Bar graph of funds allocation to national risks 27 Table 3: Allocation of funds to risks 28 4.0 Conclusion 31 Reference list 32 Feitosa, SF Gararfa, V Cornelli, G Tarvido, C Carbalho, SJ 2010, Bioethics, culture and infanticide in Brazilian indigenous communities: the Zuruahá case, Cad. Saúde Pública vol.26 no.5, p. 10-19. 32 Grillo, I 2014, Brazil’s police struggle to pacify gang-run slums, 30 September, 2014. http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?id=183850 32 International Labor Organization (ILO), 2008, Forced labor in Brazil: 120 years after the abolition of slavery, the fight goes on, 13 May, 2008. http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/features/WCMS_092663/lang--en/index.htm 32 Sawyer, D 2008, Climate change, biofuels and eco-social impacts in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado, Biological Sciences, Vol. 363, no. 1498, p. 1747–1752. 33 NATIONAL RISKS REGISTER: BRAZIL 1.0 Background of the risk report The aim of this report is to assess and analyze risks of national significance to Brazil. Brazil is the largest country in South America and the fifth largest in the world by population and geographical area. Costa (2012, p.16) observes that most disasters in Brazil (about 80 percent) are linked to severed atmospheric instability is responsible for landslides, hail, tornadoes and floods. Lemos (2013, p. 16) observes that although Brazil practices large scale farming in international competitive agribusiness, more than 51.4 percent of its rural population still live in poverty. Nations face a number of risks and hazards that can be natural or man-made. In order to mitigate these risks, a risk assessment and hazard analysis is done. Risk assessment is internationally accepted as an important step in the identification process to challenges that need to be addressed by the society and government. National risks cover different sectors and disciplines, and provide understanding of risks at regional or societal level. Disaster risk management strategies have been recognized as important to a nation since disasters not only cause damage and harm to lives, buildings and infrastructure but also impair the economy with global effects (OECD, 2012). Brazil, just like other countries around the world, has been facing major disasters such as floods and landslides in the recent past that has claimed several lives. The country also faces challenges in human rights areas especially on discrimination, forced labor, and effect of criminal activities. Drug trafficking and money laundering are also national issues that need address and quick solutions. A specific case is reiterated by Feitosa, et al. (2010) over the wanton environmental degradation and pollution in major sections of the Amazon forests and urbanized cities such as Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro. Because of illegal logging and cattle ranching activities encroaching into the habitats of uncontacted tribes of the Amazon, indigenous communities are under threat of extinction (Feitosa, et al. 2010, p.15). In general, these risks affect the national reputation and country rating abilities to be considered for international events such as Olympic Games, World cup, Earth Summit conferences, and headquarters of key United Nations departments. Scientific understanding has been used to map hazard prone areas based on historical information (Huppert & Sparks, 2006). On the other hand, civil hazards affect the ability of the population to live cohesively and peacefully as communities. The World Bank (2014, p. 8) observes that Brazil’s current financial management of natural disasters is not guided by an integrated strategy and national disaster risk financing. These risks have also attracted the attention of the federal states and the national government because of the effect on health, welfare, life, environment, infrastructure and social relations. Ten risks have been identified and listed below. 2.0 Identification and Description of National risks: Brazil a) Forced labor In Brazil, there are more than 25,000 forced workers working under forced labor in areas such as agriculture, forest clearing, cattle ranching, charcoal production and logging (ILO, 2008). Lima (2011, p. 6) notes that many labor and human rights are still violated in Brazil especially those stipulated by international declarations. Forced workers and number of slaves are increasing despite government initiatives and legislation to stop the use of slave labor. Most victims are young men from indigenous people and poor communities forced to work on sugar and coffee plantations. Child labor is still a serious problem in Brazil, and is concentrated in the informal sector and rural areas. The common areas of work in rural areas include; harvesting crops, charcoal production, and fishing, raising livestock, and mining (ILO, 2008). In urban areas, children work in; prostitution rings, drug trafficking, shoe shining, street markets, restaurants, construction, and transportation. b) Human trafficking Brazil is facing a serious problem in trafficking of children and women for the purpose of sexual exploitation. After Thailand, Brazil has the worst child sex trafficking record in the world. Out of 170 cases of international human trafficking in 2012, 90 were related Brazil (Wells, 2013). Sizeable proportions were trafficked for sex, labor, illegal adoption and body organs. The country has a number of unresolved cases still pending in court and relate to enticement, illegal adoption and labor trafficking. Sverdlick (2013, p. 161) observes that a highly organized group is operating in Brazil, and is engaged in trafficking women across the borders. Nonetheless, many courts in Brazil have much less information on the plight of victims. c) Mudslides and floods Combinations of physical and human causes are behind the floods and mudslides in Brazil. In 2011, Rio de Janeiro state experienced mudslides and floods with a death toll rising to 541 (Fox News, 2011). This was the worst-ever natural disaster in the country. In January 2014, Sao Paolo flooded and was declared a state of calamity after mudslides and floods claimed lives of more than 10 people and about 10 others were missing in southeast Brazil. A landslide in Natal region in mid 2014 city destroyed 25 houses (Fox news, 2014). d) Environmental degradation The Brazilian rainforests especially the Amazon is under threat from predatory logging and deforestation (Sawyer, 2008, p. 1748). This leads to climate change and affects regional biodiversity. Other practices such as illegal cattle ranching and agriculture have devastating effects on the water resources, food and environment. Deforestation and cattle ranching has caused wanton killing of Jaguars and other forest carnivores. When forests and important vegetation are under threat from loggers and ranchers, the nation is likely to experience encroaching desertification and severe damage to livelihoods. e) Malaria and dengue fever Brazil reports more than 400,000 cases of Malaria and dengue fever annually owing to proximity to the wet Amazonia forest and swamps (Lesser, 2013). This is considered as a national risk because expanding geographical distribution of mosquito vectors and dengue viruses, and urbanization in Brazil is bringing more people into contact with the viruses. Common breeding grounds for mosquitoes are solid waste disposal services and household water storage. f) Pollution Brazil has many industries with high pollution potential with minimal mitigation measures taken (Young, 2002, p. 11). This is because the country is investing in high intensive industries in food and agro processing. Cities such as Sao Paolo are highly polluted city followed by Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte. These cities also suffer from nitrogen oxides and acetaldehyde that have substantial effect on the ozone layer. Brazil is home to about 13 percent of all known flora and fauna species. This biodiversity is threatened by industrialization and agriculture, and with increased trade liberalization, the country is experiencing high concentrations of pollution-intensive export industries (Sawyer, 2008). Export-related industries such as footwear, paper and cellulose, and metallurgy report the highest of levels of pollution intensity. g) Criminal gangs In the last 10 years more than 57,000 people have been murdered in the Brazilian state of Rio de Janeiro (Grillo, 2014). This criminality and violence to a greater extent can be linked to drug trafficking and arms operations by organized crime groups. Important security advances by Brazil in the recent years has been an innovative UPP security program to rid off criminal gangs. The most serious threat comes from two largest domestic criminal gangs; Comando Vermelho and the Primeiro Comando Capital – PCC (Grillo, 2014). These gangs are becoming increasingly engaged in kidnapping rings at home, international drug trade, and the operating extortion. Militia groups carry out extrajudicial killings, extort entire neighborhoods, and are source of violent crime. h) Drug trafficking In the recent years, Brazil has become an important transit point, and market for cocaine in Latin America (Forero, 2013). Consumption of crack and cocaine in the past decade has skyrocketed. Brazil’s college students’ consumption of cocaine remained the same, at 3 percent between 2006 and 2012 despite significant decrease in the use of cocaine in North America (Lesser, 2013). The use of cocaine in Brazil doubled since 2005 at about 0.7 percent exceeding the worldwide of average 0.37 percent (Forero, 2013). Rio de Janeiro drug traffickers for many years in informally banned its commercialization because of low profit margins, and destruction to consumers’ lives. i) Extinction of indigenous communities The indigenous population such as Zoe, Ayoreo, Assurini and Tapiraje among others is vulnerable to invasion by cattle ranchers and farmers. These disadvantaged groups in Brazil experience marginalization and socioeconomic deprivation. They have been prevented from practicing religious and traditional customs and living on their lands. Indigenous resources and knowledge require protection in terms of intellectual property rights, and the general discrimination against indigenous peoples of Brazil (Lesser, 2013). j) Money laundering In 2012, about $4.4 billion was money allegedly embezzled from Petrobras contracts and revenue from drug trafficking, and laundered by Brazilians seeking to evade tax authorities (Valle & Millard, 2014). In Brazil, companies such as Doleiros and informal foreign exchange traders, make deposits abroad for money received from clients in Brazil to unrelated accounts for a fee. Without alerting the tax authorities, these clients export cash a lot of cash abroad. In addition, larger volumes of cash are moved through import and export companies such as Car Wash schemes. Illegal financial activities flourish in the informal financial market without the knowledge of the authorities. 2.1 Risk Analysis Risk assessment of national risks are considered under a five by five matrix built to show the individual hazards and a consolidated national risk matrix. The outcome of a risk assessment matrix provides appropriate mitigation measures or emergency plans. 2.1.1 Classification of probability Ranking Classification Probability 1 Extremely Unlikely Occurs under exceptional circumstances, and also occurs at least every 500 years 2 Very Unlikely Not expected to occur, or no recorded evidence. Little opportunity of occurrence, or may happen between once in 100-500 years 3 Unlikely Occurs at some time, and little evidence has been gathered. Some opportunity to occur, or occurs once in 10-100 years 4 Likely Occurrence is likely. Regular incidences recorded, and may occur once in 1-10 years 5 Very Likely Occurrence is very likely. High level of incidences recorded, and may occur once or more in a year 2.1.2 Classification of Impact Ranking Classification Impact Description 1 Very Low Impact Health, Welfare & Life Environment Infrastructure Social No persons affected. Minor injuries (0-4) treated by first aid Localized and simple contamination 680M BRL Loss of critical services for a prolonged period. Without significant support, community fails to function. Significant disruption and serious damage to infrastructure N/B: Infrastructure costs alone cannot warrant a risk to be rate ‘very high impact’. Table 1: National Risk Assessment Matrix – Brazil RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE OR ACTION PLAN RISK ID# Risk event Effect P R O B A B I L I T Y IMPACT OV E R A L L S COR E Risk Matrix Actions 1 Human trafficking Trafficked women and girls mainly for sex lose hope in life. There will be lack of confidence to contribute positively to society Exploited individuals. The image of Brazil will diminish. Families and authorities strain as they search for lost persons M H 21 Brazil should deploy local police at airports and border posts to capture the perpetrators of human trafficking. The country should reinforce new border checks with its neighbors (Sverdlick, 2013) Create training and rehabilitation centers for victims of human trafficking Partner with non-governmental organizations in terms of long-term shelter options and funding. 2 Forced labor Worker’s rights and their basic freedoms are violated. Exploiting people without pay or low pay undermines the cause for humanity. It goes against the ILOs conventions of right to work and leisure M VH 28 Compensate forced labor victims. Create slave labor task force to identify and free the victims of slave labor Institute fines and levies against landowners and employers running slave labor operations Give legal aid to victims in order to press charges against exploitative employers 3 Mudslides and floods People’s livelihoods are destroyed Loss of lives Change in the natural environment Spread of waterborne diseases Congestion and pressure in hospitals and healthcare centers H VH 36 Create big reservoirs (piscinoes) where rain water gets channeled into sewers and pumped to the sewage systems Invest in drainage, sewage branches and gutters (Costa, 2012) Monitor rainfall to prevent flooding and related disasters Construct concrete walls to block floods Use text messaging, sirens and loudspeakers to warn residents on incidences of floods Insure property and lives from flooding and mudslides 4 Environmental degradation Greenhouse gases released to the at atmosphere have potential effects on humans, animals and wildlife Source of pollution to cities and rural farms VH M 15 The government should shift towards sustainable forestry Create awareness on damaging effects of prolific logging Proper policies for deforestation reduction are needed. The states need to develop hybrid municipal solid waste in cities like Rio, Sao Jose, and Belo Horizonte 5 Land and air Pollution Damage to ozone layer due to nitrogen oxides and acetaldehyde emissions Deaths of children under five years and old people aged 65 years (5% of total annual deaths) VH H 35 Reduce deforestation in the Amazon Regulate use of public land in the Amazon Restrict marketing of meat from illegally deforested areas Reduce greenhouse gas emission rate by 40% Involve and incorporate the efforts of international organizations Collaborate with others institutions such as ICMBIO, National Council of Water resources and National Council of the Amazon for sustainable growth 6 Malaria and dengue fever Population weakened by disease High medical bills incurred Deaths to the population Loss of productivity to the industry M H 20 The government to research into spermless predator mosquitoes (genetically-altered mosquitoes) Provide and distribute mosquito netting to vulnerable population especially to expectant mothers and young children There is need for aerial spray on swamps and breeding areas to reduce impacts of malaria and dengue fever in the lowland areas 7 Drug trafficking Loss of productivity in active age groups Huge costs of rehabilitation Destruction of lives Increased criminal activities in inner cities and slums VH VH 45 Regular federal police patrols along the borders especially Mamore River bordering Bolivia (Forero, 2013) Eliminating drug cartels Bilateral agreements with nations such as Colombia and Bolivia to combat organized crime 8 Criminal gangs Increased compensation costs on victims Makes cities ungovernable Scares away investors L VH 18 Affected families to negotiate with insurance companies or brokers to cover liabilities associated with terrorism, injury to persons or damage to property Involve special police units to fight gang activities 9 Money laundering Loss of taxes to government Damaged national reputation Increased criminal activities Real estate property market prices become inflated M M 15 Fines and penalties to Brazilian financial institutions and banks that fail to report suspicious activities (World Bank 2014) Prosecution and severe penalties to the perpetrators Enforce the new anti-money laundering laws Forensic identification and prosecution of perpetrators 10 Extinction of indigenous communities Loss of cultural and individual identity Loss of livelihoods Reduction in cultural and national diversity of Brazil L M 10 Develop awareness on the need to preserve identities of un-contacted tribes Reduce logging and invasion into the forest ecosystems Taking stock of the tribes people and safeguarding their identity Provision of healthcare and shelter to these communities From the table above, drug trafficking is the most serious at rating 45 followed by mudslides and floods (36), and pollution at 35. These indicate their gravity and seriousness compared to the other risks. When allocating costs, these risks will take a greater portion of the government expenditure. Table 2: National Losses RISK NATIONAL LOSSES RISK ID# Risk event Nation Industry Population Individual 1 Human trafficking People and nation lose of pride and reputation High costs of searching and rehabilitation of victims Reduction in profitability of private and public sector Reduced confidence on police among the population Reduced capability to provide meaningful security Reduced personal esteem; limited chances of recovery from trauma and mistreatment Ruined lives and abilities to contribute to society 2 Forced labor Lack of compliance with international laws Penalties and fines from the government Increased litigation costs and loss in productivity Loss of trust in the employment sector Distrust on employment bureaus and companies Mistreatment and exploitation without wages contravenes individual freedoms Personal rights and freedoms to choice and want are violated 3 Mudslides and floods Huge costs of evacuation and resettlement Destruction of property Huge compensation costs Loss of productive population Low level of resilience and ability to rebuild lives Agony and suffering Loss of property and loved ones Overdependence on government and NGOs 4 Environmental degradation Reduced viability and productivity Reduction in sustainability Reduction in GDP and GNP annually Reduced viability in agriculture, fishing, and forest products Increased toxicity and treatment costs Exposure to adverse environmental challenges such as desertification Loss of livelihoods Conflicts over diminishing resources 5 Land and air Pollution Increased costs of healthcare Pressure on hospital facilities Pressure to develop clean energies and reduce non-biodegradable wastes to the environment Increased instances of sickness and disease Flow of heavy metal through the food chain Loss of confidence in government institutions Exposure to dangerous chemicals and used containers Flooding and destruction of ozone layer reduces people’s lifespan 6 Malaria and dengue fever Demand for drugs and netting Increase in costs of treatment Pressure on hospitals and general healthcare Loss of workplace productivity Loss of productivity from the vulnerable population Deaths and complications Increase in infant mortality rates Deaths and huge costs of treatment Pressure on family resources to treat sick members 7 Drug trafficking Loss of reputation and identity Loss of revenue Non-productive population Pressure on security sector to combat crime Loss of creativity and innovation in industries Increased cases of madness and delinquency Lowered abilities to perform productive activities 8 Criminal gangs Killings and gang activities limits revenue and taxes to government Lowers investment and limits Foreign Direct Investment Shift in working culture and productivity of the population Loss of youthful population to criminal activities Fear and injuries to individuals Increase in treatment costs 9 Money laundering Loss of taxes and revenue to the government Heavy penalties and fines to financial institutions and banks Engagement in criminal activities diminishes ability to perform legal tasks Loss of ethics and code of conduct, and rule of law 10 Extinction of indigenous communities Loss of national identity and diversity Diminished cultures and extinction of artifacts and cultural beliefs Weakening cultural and social bonds between individuals Loss of social connections and individual cohesiveness 3.0 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) In order to identify and analyze the causative factors of national risks affecting Brazil, Fault tree analysis (FTA) is done. FTA is a qualitative method to analyze accidents and identify their underlying cause. The loss from the accident is the head event. By first seeking preconditions or immediate causes, the tree is developed. The fault tree analysis for national loss in Brazil is as shown in the figure 1 below; Figure 1: Fault Tree diagram for National Loss The FTA above was developed by describing the systems and defining the system boundaries (Danaher, 2012). Hazards were then identified based on a risk assessment by National Steering Group. The steering group provided a framework to categorize hazards as natural, transportation, technological and civil. In the above case, natural risks are mudslides, malaria and flooding while technological hazards include pollution and environmental degradation. Civil hazards include criminal gangs, drug trafficking, extinction of indigenous communities, money laundering, forced labor and human trafficking. However, the scope of risks did not include transportation costs. Combined, civil risks contribute to immense national losses in Brazil. Therefore, greater attention and funding is needed to combat criminal gangs, drug trafficking, extinction of indigenous communities, money laundering, forced labor and human trafficking. The first step in the FTA understood the cause of these undesirable events through knowledge of system functions (Danaher, 2012). The boundaries were based on the three hazard categories and allocation of $19 billion to mitigate the risks. Some of the information was resource allocations, magnitude of hazards and personnel required. A range of activities such as feasibility studies, hazards, check-lists and accident investigations were done (Danaher, 2012). The top events were drug trafficking, flooding and mudslides. No formal rules were used to show events and gates but it was important that crucial activities be covered. At the top of the fault tree was ‘National Loss’ then the particular undesirable events; natural, technological and civil hazards were captured based on ‘what caused them to occur’ and ‘how they happen’. This questioning was done until the entire failure mode was described (Danaher, 2012). Qualitative and quantitative examination of the structure was then completed by determining their probability and impact. 4.0 Funds allocation to the national risks Brazil’s national GDP (nominal) according to 2015 estimates is $1.904 trillion (Knoema.com, 2013). Assuming that 1% of the GDP is allocated to handling the risk then, the risks will be allocated $19.04 billion. Figure 2a: Pie chart of funds allocation to national risks Figure 2b: Bar graph of funds allocation to national risks Table 3: Allocation of funds to risks Rating Risk Risk rating Amount allocated Current controls Justification 1 Human trafficking 21 $600 million Government departments involved with international organization in fighting human trafficking (Wells, 2013) These funds are needed to equip the National Immigration Council and Anti-Trafficking Coordination under the National Plan for Combating Trafficking. Needed for awareness creation in the media. Prevention programs to target Brazilian passport applicants 2 Forced labor 28 $800 million Accepting the risk Penalties and fines to perpetrators of slave labor Funds will facilitate judicial and prosecutorial system to litigate issues of slave labor Funds used to source intelligent information to the government and victims 3 Mudslides and floods 36 $3.0 billion Insure lives and property with leading Brazilian insurance companies Disaster relief fund Funds will compensate the affected families Funds used in vehicles and choppers to evacuate people in the affected regions Money will be used to build concrete walls and developing a warning system Funds needed to relocate and resettle the affected communities 4 Environmental degradation 15 $2.1 billion Land degradation avoided by reducing activities in forests and rivers (Sawyer, 2008) Money will be used for re-forestation programs in all the 27 federal states of Brazil Some will be used for sensitization programs through the media Funds needed to equip police and forest departments to arrest and prosecute illegal loggers and ranchers 5 Land and air Pollution 35 $2.8 billion Green energies introduced and maintained Carbon credits with greener countries are traded Financing of urban cleaning and opening up blocked sewers Funds and resources will establish green and renewable energy Funds will procure equipment or new procedures, and analytical methods Money need to enforce regulations and controls 6 Malaria and dengue fever 20 $2.3 billion Cure and prevention mechanism for mosquitoes and also provide netting and spraying breeding grounds done Funds will buy equipment and institute procedures in mosquito genetic engineering Money to buy malaria control nets and drugs to hospitals Funds will fund national mobilization against malaria and dengue fever Some funds will be used to assess socioeconomic vulnerability through research 7 Drug trafficking 45 $3.9 billion Contain and fight the risk using internal mechanisms (police and anti-drugs units) Funds needed to partner with Bolivia and Colombia to fight material support and supply of weapons to traffickers (Forero, 2013) Funding Interpol operations and drugs prevention police within Brazil Purchase of technology to fight drug trafficking 8 Criminal gangs 18 $1.2 billion Accept and eliminate increased criminal activities in urban areas Money to empower state and urban police to fight organized crime Funds to control the proliferation of automatic and semi-automatic weapons among the youth Money to build and combine efforts of lawyers, corrupt officials and cell phones to get hold of criminal gangs Funds to eliminate cases of child soldiers 9 Money laundering 15 $1.8 billion Insure banks and finances for institutions from activities of money launderers Money to combat financing of terrorism and block deposits and huge withdrawals (Valle & Millard, 2014) Funds to track movements of money launderers Funding of criminal investigations in money laundering Funds to allocate funds to penitentiary and rehabilitation system for money launderers 10 Extinction of indigenous communities 10 $400 million Create border between outside communities and indigenous communities living in the Amazon forests Funding land department to demarcate indigenous lands and cultures Money to preserve cultures in Museums Funds to implement the UN declaration on the rights of indigenous communities Money will be used to create awareness on surrounding communities to preserve indigenous communities, bird species and trees Total $19 billion 4.0 Conclusion National risk assessment of Brazil has provided lessons and important consideration to the government in terms of attention and financial allocations. Risks have been categorized as natural, technological and civil. The risks assessment has highlighted the probability and impact of the risks to the nation, and found that drug trafficking had higher risk rating compared to extinction of indigenous communities. However, all the risks are critical to the success of the nation and thus, became necessary to be documented and assessed. In budget allocation, more funds were allocated to reduce the impact of drug trafficking and combating the serious effects of mudslides and floods that have affected Brazil in the recent years. Therefore, allocation of funds to mitigate these risks is justified and will alleviate some of the challenges facing Brazil as an economy and social function. Reference list Costa, K 2012, Analysis of legislation related to disaster risk reduction in Brazil. IFRC. 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World Bank Group. New York. https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr/files/publication/Options-for-Disaster-Risk-Financing-in-Brazil-English.pdf Young, CE 2002, Environmental regulation and competitiveness in the Brazilian industry, with special reference to the energy sector. Centre for Brazilian studies. University of Oxford. http://www.ie.ufrj.br/images/gema/Gema_Artigos/2003/Environmental_regulation_and_competitiveness_in_Brazilian_industry__with_special_reference_to_the_energy_sector.pdf Read More