World Demographic Characteristics - Assignment Example

 The importance of demographic characteristics as it pertains to interaction with the state and the local police first include the increased supply of labor. An increase in savings is the second mechanism whereby as the dependents number decreases individual can save more. This national savings rate increase, increase the stock of the state and leads to productivity that is high as the capital that is accumulated is invested. Third is human the capital mechanism; fertility rates decreases results in females who are healthier and fewer pressures of the economy at home. Better health and educational outcomes are obtained since parents are allowed to invest more resources per child. Increasing domestic demand is the fourth mechanism that results from decreasing dependency ratio and increasing GDP per capita. Fertility that is small leads to low youth dependency and high working age ratio to the total population. Apart from global issues, demographics has an important role in the day-to-day decision making of the local and national government (Alho et al. 2) Model Description The demographic baseline models that can be used include the demographic stochasticity which describes the randomness that would result from the inherently discrete nature of the gender and race demographic features. The stochastic model can handle the uncertainty in the in the inputs built into it. For producing the kind of results the politician is asking for the stochastic model, is absolutely necessary, since it will present the result as a probability or when the variance is significant. A methodological consequence of the adaptation of such techniques is that forecast uncertainty can be handled probabilistically (Alho et al. 3). An enormous dataset of the gender and race demographic features will tend towards this model, only because the model allows for a greater variety of variables. The second demographic baseline model that can be used is the deterministic model since it does a better job of identifying conditions that are sufficient and necessary. In gender and race demographic features, the sufficient and necessary variables would be dropped from the model since it would predict the outcome perfectly. This model does not include randomness elements; every time the model will be run with the same initial condition the same results will be obtained. Another demographic model that can be used is macroeconomic, which purport to stimulate socio-economic development process and demographic variables relationship in Massachusetts with the dual purpose of knowledge enhancement of the particular setting process and by examining scenarios that are alternative, providing information that is useful to policy makers on the economic and demographic policies selection to enhance the development of the economy and improve the Massachusetts human welfare, empirical research in corporate demography shows evidence supporting this general conjecture (Carroll 7) Estimations/Inference In Massachusetts_ speed_datadescription, if the driver were female the gender disparity in tickets would be less than the male share of the driving population. In 2005, only 6.8% of female drivers compared to 10.8% of all men drivers were stopped by police, males were more likely to be ticketed after being stopped than the female drivers (Durose et al. 15) from ticketing a driver, officers incur a cost, and the ticketing price is allowed to vary with both the driver’s gender and the police officer gender. The gender bias test is based on the prediction model for what the effects of officer sex sign should be if female and male police but different thresholds of violation. According to the contact survey of the police-public in 2005, the stopped drivers who received a ticket were only 57.4% (Durose et al. 18) Based on the police-public contact study, the statics of justice department indicates that more black drivers (12.8%) than Hispanic (10.4%) and the white (9.8%) drivers during the most recent contact with police were pulled over in traffic stops (Durose et al 23) this implies that a black driver is about 23% more likely to be pulled over than a Hispanic driver and 31% than a white driver (Durose et al 26) driving too fast for conditions and over the speed limit posted or failing to abide by the special speed limit zones will lead to a speeding ticket of Massachusetts which points on the drivers license and even the revocation or suspension of a license for repeat offenders. Highway patrol officers of Massachusetts monitor traffic using cameras, speed traps, and radar. The drivers are not pulled over for exceeding the limits of the speed by 5mph; a ticket table offense is considered when the speeds are in excess of the speed limits that are posted. A threat that may arise to those model assumption used in Massachusetts_speed_csv is heteroskedasticity, which may result from the improper specification of the model. Empirical research in corporate demography shows evidence supporting this general conjecture (Carroll 7) there may be differences in the subgroup. The variables effects may not be linear perhaps some variables that are significant may have been left out of the model. Demography operates in the people’s actual humankind and places therapy in the interpretation realm (Bras 1) Conclusion Drivers of different gender and races are pulled over in traffic stops for various reasons, while among all races the common cause is speeding, compared to the blacks or Hispanics, white people are more likely to get pulled over speeding. For record checks and vehicle defects, blacks are more likely to get pulled over relative to other races. White drivers are less significantly to be searched than Hispanic or the black drivers; this suggests that most of the drivers subject to cash seizures are minorities. Works cited Alho, Juha, and Bruce D. Spencer. Statistical Demography and Forecasting. New York: Springer, 2005. Print. Bras, Hervé Le, and Hervé Le Bras. The Nature of Demography. Princeton, NJ: Princeton UP, 2008. Print. Carroll, Glenn, and Michael T. Hannan. The Demography of Corporations and Industries. Princeton, NJ: Princeton UP, 2000. Print. Durose, Matthew; Erica Smith; Patrick Langan. “Contacts between Police and the Public, 2005”. U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Special Report. April 2007. Read More