Interrelations Between the Syrian Conflict And the Instability Situation In Lebanon - Research Proposal Example

Contents Contents 2 Introduction 3 Military strategy 4 Refugee and social situation 6 Political situation 7 Methodology 8 Works cited 9 Name Instructor’s name Course title Date Interrelations between the Syrian Conflict and the Instability Situation in Lebanon Abstract The conflict in Syria has continued to leak out of its borders, but in lesser places are risks more than they are in Lebanon. Divided at independence by the design of the French colonial powers after the First World War, both countries were intended to be bound by a similar fate. However, after years of conflict and wars, their relationship has continued to prove un-essay, an aspect that could be likened to sibling rivalry. The two countries had just formalized their diplomatic ties in 2008 for the first time since they claimed independence from the French powers in the 1940’s. Reports show that Syria and Lebanon are inextricably bound together such that the fate of one country is dependent on the other. The country of Lebanon continues to be the entry point for various interventions in the internal affairs of Syria. Over the last 40 years, it was common to hear persons rejecting the Syrian interventions in the affairs of Lebanon. However, scholarships depict that most of the coups that took place in Syria between 1949 and 1970 could be traced to Beirut. Beirut acted as the spark plug of for the masterminding and logistical support for the coups in Syria. The study takes mixed methodology in the analysis of existing literature to ascertain the exact nature of the situation. The report uses existing literature to analyze the military, socio-economic and the political situation in the region Introduction For as long as two generations, Lebanon has been a divided nation, paying homage to most of the Lebanon’s Shia Alawi communities and similarly a stronghold of Sunni conservatism. In their respective command stations of Jebel Mohsen and Bab al-Tabbaneh, the two sects have continued to be at odds ever since the war broke out . The crisis has seen hundreds die and making it among the worst bloodshed in the region. Recently, the outbreak of the Syrian conflict and the influx of thousands of Syrian refugees into the Lebanese territory has nevertheless renewed and heightened the once ceased tensions between the Shia Alawis. The shia Alawis are typically in favor of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the adherents to the Sunni’s fact the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Since the start of the war in the spring of 2011, many Lebanese from either side have been slayed. Despite the existence of a ceasefire in Tripoli signed in early June 2011, sporadic clashes continue to happen throughout the region with cases of civilians carrying weapons continue to be a standard sight (Sami, et al 1180). The Syrian crisis has claimed over 10,000 lives, reports the UN with the total number of displaced civilians estimated at an excess of 500,000. The Syrian Arab Red Crescent claims that 86,000 civilians are registered refugees in the neighboring countries. Currently, the humanitarian situation is adverse with reports showing that essential services are at a standstill. The economy has reached a bottom low not only from the crisis but also by a series of far-reaching economic sanctions that have unemployment and food prices skyrocket. Consequently, for a country that has suffered decades of conflicts and war, Lebanon is rife with poverty and political tensions. As such, both countries have much to lose. At the moment, Syria continues to exert lots of influence in the affairs of Lebanon via patronage relations with Hezbollah and Hezbollah-affiliated, pro-Syrian March 8 coalition government. The massive role that Syria partakes in the affairs of Lebanon continues to raise stakes for Lebanon. The nomination of Miqati early January of 2011 saw a shift in power away from the Sunni-led anti-Syria Future movement and aggravated most Sunnis (Asfour 67). For over five months, Miqati could not form a government due to the sectarian convention. Consequently, political instability culminated in a public revolt in March 2011 in Beirut. In the uprising, the protestors cried for an end to confessional system while echoing for a fall of the regime (Asfour 69). Clashes in the city of Tripoli in June 2011 between the Sunnis and Alawites added an underscore to the fragile sectarian balance. Even though domestic infighting played an important part in the gridlock of the government, political analysts hold that the Syrian instability factored into Miqati’s incapacity to form a regime. Military strategy The transfer of arms across the Lebanese-Syrian border has continued to present challenges for both the Lebanon regime and the Asad government. As earlier indicated the borders between the two nations is relatively porous, an aspect that facilitates the easy movement of arms in either direction. Officials of the United States note the smuggling of arms is extensive and unlikely to cease given the prevailing political situation (Sprusansky 67). The Syrian government accuses a section of Lebanon inside the March 14 coalition government of colluding in the smuggling of weaponry over the boundary to help the Syrian revolt in the uprising. However, the March 14 regime vociferously continues to deny the accusation. Consequently, Hezbollah has moved most of its long-range missiles from Syria to Lebanon amid fears of the collapse of the Asad regime. They fear that the collapse of the Asad regime will deny them access to their stockpile of arsenal. Asad claims that al-Qaeda militants are entering Syria through the Syria-Lebanon and are critical in inciting violence in Syria. Fayez Ghosh, the Lebanon defense minister a diehard supporter of the Asad regime and an ally to Hezbollah proposed these claim (Sprusansky 69). In his speech, he announced that AL Qaeda militants had set base in the Lebanese city of Arsal in the pretext of being Syrian refugees. Despite rejections of Al Qaeda presence in Lebanon Miqati and President Michel, the reports have sparked international debate regarding the possibility of the presence of Al Qaeda and the consequences for both Lebanon and Syria. As earlier documented, the Syrian uprising is by far the most brutal of the Arab spring. The rebellion rapidly evolved from a peaceful protest to an armed revolt in the wake of brutal government oppression. The Syrian regime has left no effort to quell the uprising, with efforts extending to the use of airstrikes or ballistic missiles against the masses (Sprusansky 71). Unfortunately, the crisis has morphed into a sectarian civil warfare with substantial spillover effects on Lebanon. The crisis has given birth to a humanitarian catastrophe. As the crisis grinds on, the military situation on the ground opines the war could continue for years to come. Recently, the Syrian army has been successful in the consolidation of its authority on the central strategic regions (Sprusansky 76). Helped by the Lebanese Shiite sect, Hezbollah, the militant groups managed to secure vital military victory’s in cities such as Quasar and Homs. The net impact of both regime and rebel actions on the ground indicate that Syria is entrenched in a protracted military stalemate with possibility of lasting for long. With the persistence of the scenario, the regime could control Damascus and other vital cities. Nevertheless, proliferating militias would continue to fight both the regime and one another. As predicted, none of the sides would emerge victorious in the war. As the warring progresses, Syrian civilians continue to suffer the biggest toll. The flow of refugees is projected to hit the 3.5 million mark by the end of the year. Lebanon’s resources are currently stretched thin due to the hosting of over a million Syrian refugees with additional inflows expected to tip the country into a state of substantial instability. The delicate confessional balance in Lebanon implies that the country will continue to bear significant effects as the number of Syrian refugees near the one million mark. The conflict’s sectarian aspects are predicted to grow acuter, with destabilizing impacts in the relationship between Syria and Lebanon. As explained by analysts, Syria is progressively an arena of competition for regional proxies of Lebanon and other Gulf nations (Sami, et al 1179). The proxy dimension further complicates the crisis, as it also deepens its sectarian aspects. Currently, Lebanon has witnessed a significant escalation in sectarian strife that is linked to the fallout in Syria. The inflamed dogmatic instabilities in Lebanon are expected to deteriorate additionally into prolonged tensions. As such, as the Syrian conflict boundaries continue to blur, an adverse sectarian dynamic is sweeping the area ranging from the Mediterranean to Lebanon and beyond. Refugee and social situation As the war in Syria deepens, most Syrian dissidents continue to escape to Lebanon seeking safe havens from the war tone Syria. Sections of Lebanon, especially in the north regions of Wadi Khaled have seen an influx of refugees fleeing the violence. The Syrian dissident population in Lebanon has ballooned rapidly and has grown to approximately half of the Lebanese population (Davies 53). The continued influx of the refugees has put a strain on the Lebanese infrastructure, with water, electricity and waste at the verge of breaking down (Coutts, et al 75). The porous nature of the borders, coupled with the lack of demarcation enables substantial movement. The massive flow of refugees in Lebanon has resulted in socioeconomic distress that has provoked the populace of Lebanon and creating further resentment (Davies 37). Recent reports indicate that refugees are not necessarily safe in Lebanon. Various advocacy groups have claimed that some protestors and activists from Syria have been detained with their whereabouts remaining unknown. More accounts report that Syrian operatives have penetrated the Lebanese territory and have begun targeting protestors that fled Syria. Lebanon head of security has in the recent past accused the Syrians of kidnapping refugees within the Lebanese territory. In addition, some organizations have criticized Lebanese forces for their role in helping the Asad government in the detention and refusing refugees. The situation has seen human rights called in Lebanon to provide detained refugees with temporary asylum. Political situation Political paralysis in Lebanon grows as ongoing stalemate in the cabinet creates a political cabinet. The country continues to experience delayed presidential elections as key parties fail to attain consensus on a new leader (Loveless 67). As such, the government has proved increasingly incapable of responding to the Lebanon’s proliferating problems. Of importance, the unity of the LAF has come under increasing strain. The reputation of LAF as the stalwart national agency has eroded, with accusations mounting from the Sunni community that LAF is a partisan sect that favor Hezbollah and the Shiite community (Coutts, et al 87). LAF continues to watch the Syrian border carefully to stop Sunni fighters from crossing over to Lebanon. With LAF checkpoints spreading to combat intensifying instability, their targeting has the perverse impact of adding up to the spread of violence. Extremist Sunni clerics are still intensifying their calls for Sunni soldiers to defect from the army (Sprusansky 74). Consequently, even though the Lebanese army may not break up, it is obvious that its cohesion is shaken to the core. Methodology The mixed nature of the study cannot be stressed. As such, theorists argue for the application of the synthesis of existing literature for such studies. Experts claim that among the most acceptable methods of research is an analysis of literature from reputable sources (Gibson 1013). Even though various forms of studies drawn from literature exist, the study adopts a narrative approach to investigate the issue and point out the problem as it is. As such, various pieces of literature will be analyzed to generate the most relevant facts regarding the issue. The analysis method is adopted due to the existence of abundant literature concerning the problem of the study and the available time constraints in conducting a field study (Suri, and David 399). Of interest to the study is the findings and the conclusions drawn from various studies conducted regarding the topic of the research. As such, the study will review the historical underpinning of the crisis, and their socio-economic impacts. Among the relevant sources considered in the synthesis include websites of multilateral organizations such as the UN and its constituents. It also considers governmental websites regarding population and academic commentary on the war. Consideration is also given to research papers by various NGO’s relating to the topic and independent searches on the problem. The paper will also consult various academic journals and other print media to ascertain their perception regarding the issue. Works cited Asfour, Lana. "Lebanon and the Syrian Refugee Crisis." OpenDemocracyMar 13 2014. ProQuest.. 5 Feb. 2015 . p. 65-76 Coutts, Adam, Fouad M. Fouad, and Rajaie Batniji. "Assessing the Syrian Health Crisis: The Case of Lebanon." The Lancet 381.9875 (2013): 76-97ProQuest. 5 Feb. 2015. Davies, Philip. "Lebanon Copes with a Growing Population of Syrian Refugees." The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs 33.5 (2014): 30-41. ProQuest. Web. 5 Feb. 2015. Gibson, Jane Whitney. "A Winning Combination for Business Researchers: A Review of Qualitative Methods in Business Research." The Qualitative Report 15.4 (2010): 1012-5. ProQuest. Web. 3 Feb. 2015. Loveless, Jeremy. "Crisis in Lebanon: Camps for Syrian Refugees?" Forced Migration Review.43 (2013): 66-8. ProQuest. Web. 5 Feb. 2015. Sami, Samira, et al. "Responding to the Syrian Crisis: The Needs of Women and Girls." The Lancet 383.9923 (2014): 1179-81. ProQuest. Web. 5 Feb. 2015. Sprusansky, Dale. "Regional Dynamics of the Syrian Crisis." The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs 31.8 (2012): 61-80 . ProQuest. 5 Feb. 2015. Suri, Harsh, and David Clarke. "Advancements in Research Synthesis Methods: From a Methodologically Inclusive Perspective." Review of Educational Research 79.1 (2009): 395-430. ProQuest. Web. 3 Feb. 2015. Read More