Gangsters Paradise jerusalema, Broken BRICS, The Fall and Rise of the West - Essay Example

Responses paper to 3 questions on 3 articles Gangster’s Paradise Speaking about the USA, Andreas p.28) says, "The great irony is that a country that was born and grew up through smuggling is now the worlds leading antismuggling crusader". Globalization has brought many revolutionary changes in international political economy. Even though many of these changes have brought positive changes in international politics and economics, there are some negative changes also associated with globalization. The increase of transnational crime is one among them. It should be noted that America was once the paradise of smugglers. Smuggling and all types of antisocial activities were common in America before the development of its economy. According to some social science theories, antisocial activities in a country have direct relations with its economic growth. In other words, when a country develops rapidly, antisocial activities may come down whereas such things will be increased when the country fails to develop properly. Poverty, unemployment and uncontrolled inflation are the major reasons behind antisocial activities. For example, majority of the African countries are underdeveloped. Antisocial activities, internal clashes and ethnic violence are common in these countries. On the other hand South Africa is the most developed country in Africa. Antisocial activities and ethnic violence are less in South Africa compared to other African nations. In short, economic progress has direct connections with antisocial activities like smuggling and internal conflicts. America was once a victim of antisocial activities like smuggling because of the underdevelopment of economic growth. However, America was able to become the number fighter against smuggling now since the country was able to develop rapidly in recent times. It should be noted that America is the richest country in the world at present. As a result of that people in America are not much interested in encouraging antisocial activities like smuggling. Andreas argues these lessons from America tell us many things about the current international political economy (IPE) and the future of emerging economies. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) are believed to the most rapidly emerging economies in the world at present. According to one of the recently published statistics, China and India are the second and third economic powers in the world at present behind America. Among these emerging countries, China is the only country which is ruled by a communist regime or autocratic regime. All the other four emerging economies have democratic administration in place. It is easy for an autocratic country like China to reduce smuggling and other antisocial activities easily compared to other emerging countries. This is because of the fact that, in autocracy, public have limited rights and it is easy for the administration to rule with iron fist. However, in democracy, it would be difficult for the administration to suppress antisocial activities like smuggling with the help of law alone. In other words, the governments in democratic countries are accountable to judiciary whereas the governments in autocratic countries do not have such worries. That is why smuggling is still growing in India even though it is getting decreased in China. From the above discussion, it is evident that smuggling in a country depends not only on economic growth but also the political conditions in that country. Despite of huge economic growth in India, smuggling is taking place in different forms. It should be noted that India’s neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka are extremely poor countries. In fact Afghanistan is the paradise for smugglers, especially for drug mafia. Illicit drugs and other smuggling items are entering India from its neighbouring countries. It is often said that smugglers are able to bring black money or havala money to India and use it for antisocial activities. In fact reports about the arrival of containers with black money are usually common in India. It is difficult for India to reduce its trade activities with the neighbouring countries because of globalization. Even though Pakistan and China are some of the enemy countries of India, India has many trade agreements with these countries. Therefore, it would be difficult for India to put more control on the free flow of goods from these countries to India. At the same time, smugglers are using such facilities cleverly and that is why smuggling is growing in India, despite of the rapid economic growth. The following table provides an idea about the increasing gold smuggling to India from 2010 onwards. (Chowdhury, 2013) It is evident from the above table that gold smuggling in 2010 -11 periods was worth only 17.22 crores of Indian rupees whereas in 2013-2014, it has reached to 250 crores. The case is not much different about other smuggling items also. It is evident from the above statistics that, smuggling is increasing in India along with economic progress. The loopholes of globalization and free trade agreements are utilized cleverly by the smugglers in India. As has always been the case, there are limits to how much Washington can deter and detect illicit economic activities across U.S. borders, especially while maintaining an open society and allowing legal trade and travel. In 2010, an average of nearly one million people, 250,000 privately owned vehicles, and more than 60,000 truck, rail, and ship containers legally entered the country every day. That same year, more than $2 trillion in legal imports crossed U.S. borders. Facilitating this enormous volume of legitimate border crossings while attempting to enforce laws against illegal traffic is an extraordinarily cumbersome and frustrating task. The practical reality is that U.S. borders cannot be fully secured and sealed; they are supposed to be extremely permeable, serving as busy bridges rather than simply fortified barriers (Andreas, 2013, p.28). It should be noted that America has taken strong measures to restrict the illegal entries. In fact, American airports conduct strong screening to restrict the entry of antisocial elements. Even then the statistics given above clearly indicate that it would be difficult for a country like America to restrict illegal entries beyond certain limits because of globalization. The case is not so different in the case of emerging economies. In fact all the emerging economies were able to witness rapid economic growth because of globalization. Therefore, it would be difficult for these countries to restrict the passage of goods and people across borders beyond certain limits. Unlike United States, none of the emerging economies are in need of manpower. America is currently struggling to find enough manpower to fill the vacancies in critical employment sectors. For example, majority of the employees working in American hospitals are from overseas countries. Manpower cost is America is extremely high compared to that in emerging economies such as India and China. China and India are the most heavily populated countries in the world at present. Therefore, manpower costs in these countries are extremely low compared to that in America. As a result of that American companies forced to outsource or offshore business to these countries as a measure to stay competitive in international market. In short, it is not necessary for emerging economies to import manpower from overseas countries. At the same time, these countries have the necessity of importing goods from overseas countries. In short, cross border transfer of goods and manpower is common in modern globalized world. Therefore, illicit goods trafficking and human trafficking can take place at greater rates in emerging economies. “Americans need to take a deep breath: there is no need to hyperventilate about broken borders and global crime threats. U.S. borders are more patrolled, monitored, and difficult to cross than ever before. Law enforcement agencies are cooperating both regionally and globally to an unprecedented degree” (Andreas, 2013, p.28). On the other hand, same thing cannot be said about the monitoring of borders by the emerging economies. America has superior technologies and equipment to monitor almost the entire border areas. Same thing cannot be said about emerging economies. Even though economic growth is phenomenal in emerging economies, still the technological growth is less in these countries, except China. China is able to challenge America in all areas of technology. However, the case of other emerging economies are not so. India and Russia have a decent growth statistics in the technology area whereas the case of Brazil and South Africa are not so. To conclude, America faced a lot of smuggling problems during the early stages of its history, however, stable economic growth helped the country to reduce smuggling activities as much as possible. At present, the general mood among Americans is against smuggling and other antisocial activities. In fact, it is not necessary for the Americans to engage in smuggling activities to find their livelihood. Moreover, America has superior technologies to monitor its borders properly so that smugglers may struggle to enter America through illegal channels. On the other hand, emerging economies, baring China are struggling to control smuggling and other antisocial activities. Even though economic growth in emerging economies is phenomenal, antisocial elements and illegal goods are entering these countries through illegal channels. The economic growth in emerging economies is controlled by the globalization and free trade. It would be difficult for these countries to restrict the free flow of goods and manpower and still able to maintain the economic growth. Broken BRICS The 2007-08 global recession has caused many problems in global economy. The so called stable economies such as America and UK faced many economic problems during this period. Many of the prominent companies in these countries have been collapsed or closed because of the recession. At the same time, countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) have faced less economic troubles during the recession period. In fact these countries were able to sustain their economic growth up to certain extent despite of the unfavourable economic situations all over the world. It was believed that the major portions of the global wealth would be in the hands of these countries in the coming years. However, Sharma (2012) in his article; Broken BRICS, questions this assumption. In his opinion, the economic growth in BRICS countries has been slowed down already and the possibility of an immediate revival seems to be a difficult task for them. Sharma, discussing the historic economic weaknesses in emerging markets, says, "Failure to sustain growth has been the general rule, and that rule is likely to reassert itself in the coming decade." Sharma’s arguments seem to be logical and coherent. He had cited many statistics and facts to substantiate his arguments. One of the major point mentioned by Sharma to substantiate his arguments is that “Over the course of any given decade since 1950, on average, only a third of the emerging markets have been able to grow at an annual rate of five percent or more”(Sharma, 2012, p.2). Compared to developed economies, developing economies may face many problems while trying to sustain the economic growth. For example, India is one emerging economy which has shown rapid economic growth in recent times. However, India’s economic growth has been slowed down considerably in recent times. Once the economic growth in India has reached the 9% mark. However, India is trying to maintain even a 5% economic growth in recent times. Even though many internal factors have contributed to this economic decline in India, some reasons for the slowdown of economic progress in India can be attributed to external factors also. For example, export is one of the major revenue sources of India. Vegetables and fruits are some of the goods exported by India to overseas countries. However, European countries and many other overseas countries have now declared a ban on the import of vegetables and fruit items from India, citing some silly reasons. In a heavily globalized global economy, the economic growth of a country is heavily dependent on external factors. Unexpected climate changes and the destruction of agriculture is another reason for the economic slowdown in India. Moreover, political instability is currently prevailing in India. It is believed that no political party in India would get majority in the recently concluded parliament elections. If it happens, a coalition government comprising of political parties of contrasting ideologies may take charge in India. It should be noted that left parties in India are against commercialization, globalization and privatization whereas the right parties are in favour of it. A coalition government formed by the left and right parties in India would struggle a lot to streamline the economic progress in the right direction. China on the other hand is facing no problems with political instability. However, they are facing so many other problems. As rightly pointed out by Sharma, “With over 50 percent of its people now living in cities, China is nearing what economists call "the Lewis turning point": the point at which a countrys surplus labor from rural areas has been largely exhausted” (Sharma, 2012, p.4). Labour power is the major factor which helped China to become the most rapidly emerging economies in the world. While countries in American and European continents failed to inject cheap labor in the employment sectors, China was able to do so. It should be noted that China is the number country in terms of population size. Therefore, manpower shortage may not be a problem there. However, westerners are facing this problem over the last few decades. At the same time, the economic growth in China is not evenly distributed in the rural and urban areas. In other words, millions of people living in the rural areas of China still facing unemployment and lack of education problems. Only the people living in urban areas have better living conditions and educational qualifications. In other words, manpower in the urban areas of China is already used up and the manpower from the rural areas does not have the necessary skills to meet fill the growing demand gap in the employment market. Moreover, the one child policy adopted by China is contributing heavily to the workforce shrinkage. Earlier, population growth was assumed to be the major challenge in front of China like countries in achieving economic progress. Therefore, China did everything possible to reduce the population growth. This policy is currently back firing them in many ways. As a result of all the above mentioned facts, manpower cost in China is slowly growing up. In other words, China is not going to be the cheapest manufacturing destination in the coming years and hence China may struggle to sustain the economic growth beyond certain limits. Chinas boom was driven in part by a large generation of young people entering the work force; consultants now scour census data looking for similar population bulges as an indicator of the next big economic miracle. But such demographic determinism assumes that the resulting workers will have the necessary skills to compete in the global market and that governments will set the right policies to create jobs. In the world of the last decade, when a rising tide lifted all economies, the concept of a demographic dividend briefly made sense. But that world is gone (Sharma, 2012, p.5). America and other developed countries are doing everything possible to prevent the out flow of capital in the form or outsourcing and offshoring. President Obama has already proposed and implemented some tight policies to reduce out flow of business from American soil. America has already recognized the challenges from China as an economic power. It is believed that China may expel America from the top spot in near future itself. Therefore, America is currently doing everything possible to slow down the economic progress in China. Even though America is publicly admitting the necessities of spreading globalization, they are not ready to sacrifice any of their interests in the name of globalization. In short, America’s efforts to reduce the economic progress in China are causing big headaches to China at present. The case is not much different in Russia and Brazil. The economic growth in these countries is related to the revenue from the energy sector. It should be noted that these two countries are some of the largest oil and natural gas producers in the world. At the same time, other revenues streams have not been developed properly in these countries. For example, the revenues from manufacturing and agricultural sectors are negligible for these countries compared to that in India and China. America has already developed some alternate energy sources to reduce their dependency on other countries in the energy department. For example, America has already started the utilization of shale gas to meet its energy needs. It is believed that America has the largest shale gas deposit in the world. In short, it will be difficult for Russia and Brazil to sustain economic growth in future with the help of revenues from the energy sector alone. “In recent years, Russias economy and stock market have been among the weakest of the emerging markets, dominated by an oil-rich class of billionaires whose assets equal 20 percent of GDP, by far the largest share held by the superrich in any major economy”(Sharma, 2012, p.5) Another major reason for the rapid economic progress in emerging countries in recent times was the revenue obtained from exports. However, Sharma pointed out that “Export-driven emerging markets will need to find new ways to achieve strong growth, and investors recognize that many will probably fail to do so: in the first half of 2012, the spread between the value of the best-performing and the value of the worst-performing major emerging stock markets shot up from ten percent to 35 percent” (Sharma, 2012, p.4). In short, emerging markets like India, Russia, China, and Brazil have not many things common among them. India and China are the major energy consumers while Russia and Brazil and the major energy producers. Moreover, India and China are the largest producers whereas Russia and Brazil are big consumers. The manpower costs in India and China are less compared to that in Russia or Brazil. Politics in emerging countries are extremely different. While China and Brazil has almost stable political systems, same thing cannot be said about India and Russia. In short, emerging markets have more differences than similarities. Moreover, the global economic order is currently undergoing a restructuring process. It is believed that America and European countries have already succeeded in regaining the economic progress. Emerging markets were exploiting the failures of the developed economies in overcoming the recession challenges. That scenario is changing slowly. In short, the future for emerging countries seems to be not so bright. The Fall and Rise of the West According to Altman (2013, p.1), “The 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed have had devastating effects on the U.S. economy and millions of American lives. But the U.S. economy will emerge from its trauma stronger and widely restructured. Europe should eventually experience a similar strengthening, although its future is less certain and its recovery will take longer to develop”. It should be noted that America and European countries have superior infrastructures and technological excellence compared to other countries and hence the recession problems may cause only temporary worries to them. Better infrastructure and superior technologies are necessary for a country to stimulate economic progress. For example, majority of the superior technology oriented companies are of American or European origin. For example, Microsoft, Google and Apple Inc. are some of the most valuable technology companies not only in America but also in the world. The global economic activities may face serious setbacks if the Window based computer operating system, the Google search engine and android or IOS operating system fail to function properly. Majority of the computers and mobile phones all over the world need the services of these American made and controlled products and services. Therefore, the fall of America could cause serious threats to global economic growth. The claims about the economic future of America made by Altman have the support of facts and statistics. In the United States, a resurgent housing sector, a revolution in energy production, a remodelled banking system, and a more efficient manufacturing industry will fuel a boom. New technologies are producing a spectacular turnaround in U.S. oil and gas production. Advanced seismic techniques and innovative approaches to hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have opened energy deposits that were previously unknown or inaccessible. The result has been a dramatic recovery of both the natural gas and the oil industries. In 2012, U.S. natural gas output reached 65 billion cubic feet per day, which is 25 percent higher than it was five years ago and an all-time record. Shale gas accounted for much of this increase. Moving forward, the U.S. Department of Energy forecasts that American liquid hydrocarbon production will rise another 500,000 barrels in 2013, and the International Energy Agency projects that the United States will surpass Saudi Arabia as the worlds largest oil producer by about 2017 (Altman, 2013, p.3). From the above discussions and statistics, it is evident that America has bright future in terms of economic progress. The claims made by Altman about the progress of America have the support of statistics and facts. For example, as mentioned earlier, Shale gas deposits in America is extremely high. Moreover, many people believe that America has preserved its oil reserves for future use since oil is a non-renewable energy source. America knows that the oil become an extremely expensive commodity in future. America is currently exploiting the oil stocks in other parts of the world while preserving its own oil stocks. This strategy would make them the largest oil producer in future when all other oil producing countries have their oils stocks exhausted. However, the claims about the economic revival of Europe made by Altman are unbelievable up to certain extent. Altman seek help from the history and precedents to predict the economic revival of Europe. In fact many scholars also keep faith in Europe’s ability to repeat the history. The following opinion made by McNamara (2010) justifies the claims of Altman. The history of the EU shows that crisis often—but not always—leads to increased integration. Crisis alone will not produce results unless there is the political will and creativity to respond with decisive innovation. From the initial establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in response to the challenges of postwar reconstruction to the single-market innovations of the 1980s, examples abound of the ability of political elites to seize crisis for policy innovation. Even so, long periods of stagnation in political, economic, social, and security arenas have persisted even in the face of serious dysfunction. In the early years of the EU, the so-called empty chair crisis blocked movement on needed decision-making reform for years. A long period of economic stagflation and hard times in the 1970s brought little in the way of policy integration (McNamara, 2010). Despite of all these claims made by Altman and other scholars, it would be illogical to rely heavily on history and precedents rather than facts while analysing the economic progress in Europe. Compared to America, economic revival in Europe seems to be a bit slow. UK like European countries is still struggling to resurrect from the verge of destruction. However, economic Gurus anticipate that this problem will be rectified sooner rather than later. “Sweeping changes in government finances, banking systems, and manufacturing are under way, as are structural reforms in labour markets. All this is proving once again that global capital markets, the most powerful economic force on earth, can effect changes beyond the capacity of normal political processes” (Altman, 2013, p.1). Altman’s arguments seem to be a bit exaggerated. The political and economic climate in Europe is not so good at present. Russia has many problems with its neighbouring countries. Moreover, the Euro crisis is still causing many headaches to the integration process of Europe. Some of the prominent members of European Union (EU) such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain have failed to develop properly in recent times because of various reasons. The recent recession hit these countries more than any other countries in Europe. On the surface level, Eurozone crisis seems to be affecting only these five countries, but in the deep grass root level, this crisis has the potential to cause huge problems to the entire Europe because of the increasing interdependence of EU countries in one way or another. Bank of England referred this crisis as “the most serious financial crisis at least since the 1930s, if not ever,” in October 2011” (Kenny, 2012). In short, the Altman’s claims about the progress of Europe seem to be a bit exaggerated. Altman accepts the fact that the eurozones GDP is still shrinking, and its recession may not have bottomed out yet. However, he believes that if European countries can restructure their economies to the degree that the United States has, there will be cause for optimism. It should be noted that the USA is a country whereas Europe is a continent. Even though many different states constitute America, all these states have similar culture and politics. On the other hand, the politics, culture and economic activities among European countries are extremely different. For example, Turkey is dominated by Muslim culture whereas majority of the other European countries have Christian culture. Turkey has failed to achieve a full membership in EU because of its cultural differences with other European countries. Moreover, the economic stabilities in Germany or France cannot be witnessed in Spain or Portugal. In fact people in economically stronger European countries are against the idea of aiding the poor countries in the Europe in the name of EU integration. Europe is currently trying to develop as a whole. Even though this policy is good in principle, practically it will be extremely difficult. “To quote one of the founding fathers of the EU, Jean Monnet: “If I could seize a fresh opportunity for the political integration of Europe, I would start from culture and not from the economy” (Dudt, 2009, p.3). In short, Altman did succeed in proving the future of America as bright with the help of evidences, facts and statistics. However, his claim’s on the progress of Europe is based on history rather than facts. It is possible that some of the histories may repeat again. However, it would be illogical to believe that all the histories may repeat in the future. Forecasts, predictions and anticipations, supported by facts and evidences may have more reliability, accountability and credibility. Altman failed to provide enough facts and evidences to prove his predictions about Europe’s economic progress. At the same time, his predictions about the future of America seem to be acceptable. References Altman, R. (2013). The Fall and Rise of the West, Foreign Affairs. Jan/Feb2013, Vol. 92 Issue 1, p8-13. Andreas, P. (2013). Smuggler Nation: How Illicit Trade Made America (Oxford University Press, 2013) Chowdhury, A. (2013). How 150-200 tons of gold is smuggled into India annually. Retrieved from http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-08/news/48029153_1_20-30-tonnes-gold-bars-gold-and-real-estate Dudt, S., (2009). Is there a European cultural policy? Retrieved from http://www.emc-imc.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Press___News/musikforum.1.09_dudt_europ.kulturpolitik_engl.pdf Kenny, T. (2012). What is the European Debt Crisis? Retrieved from http://bonds.about.com/od/advancedbonds/a/What-Is-The-European-Debt-Crisis.htm McNamara, K.R. (2010). The Eurocrisis and the Uncertain Future of European Integration. Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/eu/eurocrisis-uncertain-future-european-integration/p22933 Sharma, R. (2012). Broken BRICS. Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2012, Vol. 91 Issue 6, p2-7. Read More