Butterfly Effect or Chaos Theory - Essay Example

Scientists through the ages have been using the concept of values based precise mathematical measurements which, theoretically, at least, must corroborate with the nearly perfect prediction of some physical behaviour of any physical system. Therefore the change in the measurement must reflect the corresponding change in the behavioral pattern of the system or condition. The Newton’s laws of physics have been supporting this concept of the more precise are the measurement, the more accurate must be the predicted behavioral pattern. But on the contrary, the unpredictability of the resulting behavior of physical system was something which has been posing serious challenges to the scientific community. Poincare, in early twentieth century found that even the slightest error in the measurement resulted in enormous unpredictability in the behavior of astronomical system (Poincare, internet). Repeated experiments by him reaffirmed his earlier results that changes in the measurement did not follow Newtonian laws of producing identical behavior but produced outcomes which were vastly different and unpredictable. In 1963, Edwards Lorenz, a meteorologist, discovered that while predicting weather forecast, slight changes in the values in the equations for the theoretical model of prediction of the weather, produced hugely different outcome. When he used .506 instead of .506127, a slightly lesser precise measurement, the results were radically different as opposed to very little variation that should have happened as per the Newton’s laws. The continued erratic outcomes of the computerized model of prediction, with slight variation in the values, emphatically disproved the earlier Newtonian theory. Lorenz became the first scientist to prove it wrong. In 1972, while talking in a seminar on "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterflys Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas?" (AAAS, 1972), he successfully illustrated that the behavior of complex system is impossible to predict even when the conditions or factors influencing its outcomes are known mainly because of the fact that those precise conditions cannot be foretold or predicted and therefore the unpredictability of the outcome. Therefore it is impossible to predict the weather accurately. The unpredictable behavior of a physical system came to be known as ‘butterfly effect’ because of the slight difference in the starting point of the curves which can be compared to the flapping of a butterfly’s wings. As Stewart says ‘The flapping of a single butterflys wing today produces a tiny change in the state of the atmosphere. Over a period of time, what the atmosphere actually does diverges from what it would have done. So, in a months time, a tornado that would have devastated the Indonesian coast doesnt happen. Or maybe one that wasnt going to happen, does’(Stewart, p141). This phenomenon is also known as ‘chaos theory’. Chaos has a different meaning in the scientific language and usage. Though it does broadly refers to a state of confusion and lacking in order but underlined the apparent lack of order, is some well defined sequential outcome. In other words, the system, despite its disordered appearance and outcomes, follows certain rules. The theory conforms to the fact that slight changes in the initial conditions can significantly change the long term behavior of a system. Hence Chaos theory presupposes sensitive dependence of initial conditions on the resulting behavior of a system which may be drastically different at each successive and different conditions or factors which may be tiny or large. In yet another experiment, Lorenz was studying the phenomenon of convection with the help of thirteen equations. When he removed the extraneous factors and maintained only the sensitive conditions, he was left with three equations. He applied the various different measurement values on those equations and found that the equations described water wheels! The equations generated a random pattern of behavior but when those very points were plotted into graphs, they amazingly showed an ordered pattern. They followed a spiral form. They were neither periodic nor seemed to end at a certain point. He called this behavior as ‘Lorenz attractor’. According to another scientist James Gleick, ‘At the top, water drips steadily into containers hanging on the wheels rim. Each container drips steadily from a small hole. If the stream of water is slow, the top containers never fill fast enough to overcome friction, but if the stream is faster, the weight starts to turn the wheel. The rotation might become continuous. Or if the stream is so fast that the heavy containers swing all the way around the bottom and up the other side, the wheel might then slow, stop, and reverse its rotation, turning first one way and then the other’ (Gleick, p29). The unpredictable behaviour that was observed was actually following an ordered process in a well defined complex manner which was difficult to discern at the first glance. The apparent random behavior had an intrinsic spiral effect that can be illustrated as follows; Though Lorenz published a paper in 1963 illustrating the unpredictability of weather supporting his theory with appropriate equations, computerized model and graphical representation, his revolutionary chaos theory or butterfly effect’ was not recognized till much later. The chaos theory was used at various other areas of socio-scientific concern and was found to validate the results of Lorenz. Benoit Mandelbrot, an employee of IBM, studied the price fluctuation of cotton and found that when the data was analyzed, it did not follow a normal distribution. When he took into account the price fluctuations from the year 1900 and analyzed it through computer, he found that though it showed drastic fluctuation and extreme unpredictability, sequence of change was independent of scale. In simple words, daily, weekly or monthly prices changes, they all followed the same pattern showing same variation of fundamental change (Mandelbrot, 1983). By the end of 1970s, the scientists were realizing the vast scope of ‘chaos theory’ which could have huge relevance in the emerging new world which was knowledge based and relied heavily on application of scientific theory on real world actions. The effective use of this theory outside the scientific arena and encompassing fields like music, art, theology etc. have given it a whole new perspective that has revolutionized the world with an ending prospects and scope. The most interesting aspect of the chaos theory is its conflict with the theological beliefs and its interpretation of the cause and consequences of the interacting phenomena of human life. After Darwinian theory of human origin and Galileo’s conflict with the church, chaos theory has become one of the most controversial theory that defies the beliefs of the Church and directly challenges the Christian doctrine that follows that natural phenomena’s ‘eventual outcomes are written into the script rather than the result of chance in any metaphysical sense. The contemporary biological understanding of evolution is therefore highly consistent with belief in a creator God who has intentions and purposes for the world in general, and for humankind in particular’(International congress, 2008). Though the Christian beliefs in the supremacy of God and the ordered phenomena of nature encompassing animate and inanimate objects of the universe, the scientific theory has been supported by a wide range of people from different field. The scriptures of Christian doctrine have provided the mankind with the knowledge that ‘scripture plays a pivotal role in the origins and warrants of Christian Doctrines’ (Heck, 2007). The canons of scriptures lay the foundation of the Christian preaching that has established God as the creator of all things and which work under the divine orders, following definite pattern, irrespective of external factors or conditions. The Christian doctrine was basically promoted to inculcate a life of faith where people could find solace in sorrow. The doctrine also helped to inculcate a sense of fear in the event of wrong doing thus facilitating the formation of societies and evolving traditions that provided the guideline for co-existing in peace and harmony. The dogmatic approach to old Christian doctrine is not very popular in the fast advancing scientific era. The scientists and philosophers have debated that despite the knowledge of the intricate working of DNA and gnomes etc., the evolutionary theory too exhibits phenomena of unpredictability of outcome. New approach towards the theological beliefs, have incorporated the paradigm shift that the new scientific knowledge has made available. Scholars of theology and Biblical studies have made efforts to explain the natural phenomena with relation to scientific context. The wide implications of the theory of chaos have found refreshing interpretation in the area of theology. ‘The strange attractor and scaling aspects of chaos theory suggest that while one cannot predict with certainty what a person will decide on a particular matter, one can say that the global pattern (salvation history) will be the same. Our path then is freely determined, but while decisions may perturb the path somewhat, the boundaries of the attractor are stable’ (Rev. Gray, 1997). John Jefferson Davis has interpreted this by saying that ‘From a Christian perspective, such an encounter with the limits inherent in the nature of the physical realm should remind man of the fundamental distinction between an infinite Creator and a finite and limited creation, including man. The new discoveries give man further reason to adopt a stance of “epistemic humility” in the face of a complex and unpredictable world’(Davis, p80). John Polkinghorne, eminent mathematician and scientist, who later changed his stream to embrace theology, has strongly supported the ‘chaos theory’ in the interpretation of the theological beliefs. According to him ‘discovery of intrinsic unpredictabilities, of the kind already referred to, in the behaviour of both quantum mechanical and classical physical systems. If these phenomena are to be understood as signs of the openness of the future to the emergence of true novelty, then their unpredictabilities will have to be interpreted, not just as epistemological defects, limiting our ability to know in detail what is going to happen, but as ontological opportunities, permitting the operation of additional causal principles, over and above the energetic transactions that physics describes’ (Polkinghorne, 1998). One can therefore, convincingly say that the changing times have facilitated a wider perspective and acceptance of scientific knowledge, albeit with a little bit of reserve, by the various scholars of religious studies. Butterfly effect or chaos theory has permeating affects that is able to explain a lot of mythical beliefs and abnormal religious intervention validating the unpredictability of physical system and their sensitive dependence on conditions which promote radical outcomes. Reference AAAS. (December 1972). "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterflys Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas?". Available from: [4 March, 2008]. Davis, John Jefferson, (1997). “Theological Reflections on Chaos Theory,” Perspectives on Science and Christian Faith, 49:2, p. 80. Denis, Alexander. Evolutionary Scientists and Purpose of God. International Congress abstract. Available from: [4 March, 2008]. Gray, Rev. Doug. (September, 2007). Towards a Theology of Chaos: The New Scientific Paradigm and Some Implications of Ministry. Available from: [4 March, 2008]. Gleick, James. (1987). Chaos - Making a New Science. NY. Penguin Books. pp. 29. Heck, Athur. (2007). Lectures at United Theological Seminary. April 10-11. Mandelbrot, Benoit. (1983). The Fractal Geometry of Nature. NY.: W.H. Freeman and Company. Polkinghorne, John. (1998). God in relation to Nature. Witherspoon Lecture. Centre for theological Enquiry. Available from: [4 March, 2008]. Poincare, Henri. Available from: < http://www-chaos.umd.edu/misc/poincare.html> [4 March, 2008]. Stewart, Ian. (1987). Does God lay Dice: Mathematics of Chaos. Oxford. Basil Blackwell. pp. 141. Read More