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The base rate Fallacy - Coursework Example

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In the paper “The base rate Fallacy” the author suggests that that 1 in every 1000 employees in government is a spy. Giving the test to all the employees of the government and defense contractors, it implies that 999 individuals who are not spies will be subjected to the test…
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The base rate Fallacy
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Download file to see previous pages Shermer, (2008) argues that there exist much intertwining between techniques and empirical methods of psychological theory construction and statistics as detailed in the two case scenarios in the questions. In the second scenario relating the probability of spies it is only through statistics that one can only ascertain that actually only 2 percent will actually be spies and not 95% as suggested by the accuracy level of the test that they are being subjected to. In the First example it is only through statistics that one finds out that in a population of 1000 employees where only 5 percent are guilty and all are given a test the number of the wrongly accused will be 285.
According to Frederick & Bowden (2009), probabilistic conclusions are the main conclusions that are derived from psychological research just as in the case of most sciences. These conclusions can be referred to as generalizations that usually hold in more often situations. But the generalizations are not usually applicable in every case. Like in the above question the generalization will be 2 percent. Predictions that are got from the psychological theories and findings, though not 100 percent are often of great importance and are still useful to the world today.  The fact that they are not 100% true is a quality that they do share with other sciences (Shermer, 2008). Many individuals have been found to have various difficulties when it comes to reasoning in probabilistic terms. Due to this, much of the psychological research has been found. ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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