Analysis of Estimating the Probability of Negative Events by Adam J.L Harris, Adam Corner, and Ulrike Hahn - Article Example

Module: ID: Reference of the reviewed paper: Harris, Corner, Harn, (2008) retrieved http www.researchgate.net/publication/222579893_Estimating_the_probability_of_negative_events (Accessed on Nov 12, 2012) 1. Introduction: The article sent for the publication has been read. The article is about the human nature of “unlikely”, “probably” and “possibly”. The article is about the perception of a human being about the negative events that are occurring around him. The “probability of negative events” is certainly grabs attention of every single human being and this is given a lot of attention and importance. There is a reference to the verbal probability which has been rated higher than the numerical probability. Different experiments and tests have been carried out showing the results thus making the people realise how attentive they are upon the negative probabilities. Different examples had been explained through experimentation which is highly appreciated as it brings relevance, importance, results and the latest researches. Relevancy and professionalism are also important in the blogging world. Whenever you use keywords in your blog, make sure that they are well-researched to your industry and locality, and that they are relevant to the discussion and to the targeted keyword search. Writing for the Internet encompasses many styles of writing, and various avenues. What never changes though, is the need for an informational resource—with helpful content created for human beings. It’s what the people demand and it’s the least you could do for your viewers. Mellema (2012). Much of professional communication is done in writing: proposals, memos, reports, applications, preliminary interviews, e-mails, and more are part of the daily life of a college student or successful graduate. Even if students manage to learn the material in their college classes without knowing how to write well, they won’t be able to express their knowledge to the people who are making the big decisions. Potential employers won’t know whether or not head knowledge can be applied to everyday demands unless it’s through a spoken interview. Even the majority of certifications and licensures require basic writing skills to obtain. The inability to write makes for a stillborn career. Walsh (2010). Often, researchers make the mistake of believing that writing an article is a separate phase to be done after completing the entire research. We recommend that researchers start writing much sooner. From the effectiveness perspective, it is not wise to wait for a moment when you feel that you know and understand “everything” needed for writing articles. It is more sensible to start learning to write piece-by-piece, better enabling the perception of what to do and when, and thus aiding the avoidance of unnecessary work. Understanding of the studied matter is enhanced while working on it. Starting the writing process early gradually lowers the threshold for publishing and through gained experience the chances of getting the work accepted for publication in better journals will improve. Belt, Mottonen, Harkonen (2011). There have been many times throughout history where two or more people come up with the same bright idea at the same time. Some of these cases will undoubtedly be down to either plagiarism or espionage but some are the result of pure synchronicity of thought and invention. In this modern day and age, unless you sit in a dark cave, you are bombarded by terabytes of data each day. You could easily scan a newspaper but not consciously read an article about a new invention or idea but then it could appear in your conscious mind sometime later, perhaps as a light bulb moment. You then see the invention mentioned on TV or the Internet sometime later and you might think someone has stolen your idea when it wasnt necessarily yours in the first place. So its quite understandable that this sort of thing happens all the time in our so-called connected or wired world. I know of many of the sources of the ideas in this book but I am sure there are others that have percolated their way through my unconscious mind. Evans (2012). As far as the reference, relevance and popularity is concerned, it is a good piece to be published and shown. But we should keep this thing in mind that the target audience has no/some link with the subject. So you need to re-write your article in terms of the language, which is supposed to be written for a layman. The usage of the words, terms, technicalities are not familiar, hence need to be explained or referred in a simple or understandable way. As anyone planning to submit a manuscript for publication is well aware, the process of conceptualizing testable research questions, reviewing the literature, conducting experiments, performing analyses, interpreting results, and, finally, writing a paper that effectively describes the study and communicates the findings involves large investments of time and energy. American Psychological Association (2012). Reviewing just the right amount of literature in the Introduction requires the balance of a tightrope walker. How much is too much? When does the literature reviewed really belong to the Discussion instead? The Introduction is not the place to demonstrate that you know all the literature in your field--a great temptation, I grant you, especially if you have just completed your dissertation. You need to review only the key, most relevant, most authoritative literature that provides specific context for your study. Focus on the current state of knowledge about the specifics of your topic. A good rule of thumb is to focus your literature review on key terms drawn from your purpose statement. Nancekivell (2004). It is crucial that you understand and adhere to the stylistic guidelines required by any periodical to which you intend to submit a manuscript. Many editors will simply return a manuscript and request that it be redone according to their stylistic requirements before resubmitting it. In addition, some reviewers will question the overall care with which you completed your writing effort if you violate the style expectations. Most periodicals publish their stylistic requirements regularly, make them available upon request, or display them online. Other periodicals simply note that authors need to utilize published guidelines such as the American Psychological Association’s current stylistic manual, the Chicago Manual of Style, etc. Hiemstra (2007). What I am trying to say is the article is too difficult to understand for a layman. You need to simplify what you wrote, explain the terms and define the words (especially those which are pure psychological terms). The reality is that in many cases you will need to use simple, everyday language to fulfill your communications objective. But this doesn’t mean that you can’t ever get creative; it depends on what you’re writing and who you’re writing for. In order to decide to what degree you should flex your linguistic muscles for any writing project; ask yourself these three vital questions: “Who are my readers? What are their needs? What writing style will best accommodate the publication or the client for whom I’m writing? Perrotta (2011). Your article needs to be a bit more interesting. It’s not that it’s not; it’s just that you need to catch the readers eye so as to increase the curiosity and to make people think. It would be highly appreciated that the use of some phrases, metaphors or symbols are also used in order to make it more user friendly and more interesting. The text should be a bit more analytical as well. The topic or the idea is very interesting. Yet, it needs to be a bit more analytical (with the experimentation and results). The more the analysis, the better the interest and demand would be. Conclusion & Recommendation: I would conclude that I really like the title and the topic of your article (for publication). The probability is one of the most important and most identifiable in our daily lives. This article would prove out to be an interesting piece, learning and understanding about the human nature. You just need to re-organize your article in terms of language, simplicity, meaningfulness, importance, definition, and explanation. References: American Psychological Association (2012), Preparing manuscripts for publication in Psychology journals: A guide for new authors. Retrieved from: http://www.apa.org/pubs/authors/new-author-guide.aspx (Accessed on Nov 13, 2012) Nancekivell. S. (2004), Writing a Publishable Journal Article: A Perspective From the Other Side of the Desk. Retrieved from: http://sciencecareers.sciencemag.org/career_magazine/previous_issues/articles/2004_04_16/noDOI.6272892291901906334 (Accessed Nov 13, 2012) Hiemstra. R. (2007), Tips for Greater Success in Writing Journal Articles. Retrieved from: http://www-distance.syr.edu/writingtips.html (Accessed Nov 13, 2012) Perrotta. L. (2011), Beginning Writers: Know When to Use Big Words or Simple Language. Retirieved from: http://suite101.com/article/beginning-writers-know-when-to-use-big-words-or-simple-language-a337517 , (Accessed on November 13, 2012) Mellema. V. (2012), The Importance of Consistency and Relevance When Writing Articles for Your Website. Retrieved from: http://blog.wordsyouwant.com/2012/06/21/the-importance-of-consistency-and-relevance-when-writing-articles-for-your-website/ (Accessed on Nov 13, 2012) Walsh. K. (2010). The Importance of Writing Skills: Online Tools to Encourage Success. Retrieved from: http://www.emergingedtech.com/2010/11/the-importance-of-writing-skills-online-tools-to-encourage-success/ (Accessed on Nov 13, 2012) Harris, Corner, Harn, (2008) retrieved from: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/222579893_Estimating_the_probability_of_negative_events (Accessed on Nov 12, 2012) Evans. T.(2012). The Art and Science of Light Bulb Moments: Collective Thoughts, Retrieved from: http://www.creativity-portal.com/articles/tom-evans/collective-thoughts.html (Accessed in Nov 13, 2012) Sibley. K. (2012). Web writers: Clarity and Style. Retrieved from: http://writing2.richmond.edu/writing/wweb/editcs.html (Accessed on Nov 13, 2012)  Joyce. J., Barry. K. (2000), Occasional, Critical, and Political Writing. OUP, Great Britian Gilbert. S. (2009), Write Your Own Article: Newspaper, Magazine, Online. Compass Book Poitn, USA Read More