Nate Silvers The Signal and the Noise - Book Report/Review Example

? NATE SILVER’S ‘THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE’ Nate Silver’s ‘The Signal and the Noise’ Nate Silver is a famous in America, journalist and respected analyst in statistics. He was considered by the Time Magazine, in 2009, as among the top a hundred persons with most influence in the world. Today, Nate Silver is considered as one of the leading, if not best, statistical analysts via his ground-breaking analysis of polling in politics. He gained ground with his role in the American presidential elections in 2008 where he appropriately projected the outcome of results. Precisely, he predicted who would win in the entire fourty nine states in America. These were among the most considered perfect predictions in the American history. In my opinion, he is the face of forecast in politics and analysis of statistics. In his recently written book, ‘The Signal and The Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail - But Some Don’t’, Nate Silver focuses majorly on straightforward evaluations of how models of prediction perform. He takes us through different topics like polling in politics and prediction in politics, baseball, financial markets, tornado lookouts, games like gambling and chess, weather forecasts and other disasters such as wars and terror, as well as aspects of global warming (Silver, 2012). Far from the views of most authors in science, Nate Silver does not in any way come up with exaggerated conclusions on issues, but rather avails detailed analyses and facts that help his readers gain a broader insight on his issues. In the most intriguing way, Silver assesses the world of forecast and expectation and goes ahead to thoroughly investigate how we can possibly identify and differentiate a valid indicator from a mere ‘noisy’ unconfirmed data. Most analysts confuse self-possessed expectations with accuracy of data. His major argument is that most forecasts flop because they are in most cases grounded on incorrect things and self-centered speculations (Silver, 2012). He says most of them are based on biasness, individual calculated interests and too much confidence and pride. Overconfidence makes one extremely sure on certain issues that he fails to notice mistakes, and even overlooks important details. He or she would definitely predict what they would want to be told. For instance, if a forecaster is a diehard fun of a given political candidate, he or she would definitely tell the public predictions that would favor his favorite candidate. In weather forecasting, if an individual is planning to do something later in the day, he would probably hope for the best weather hence inclining his predictions to what he wants to hear. To him, statistical analysis is termed as good in regard to whoever applied them and whatever methods he used in the analysis (Silver, 2012). Nate Silver further states that those forecasts that are conveyed as probabilities, for instance, the weather projections and the Bayesian techniques of statistics analysis, should be at all times be re-examined and constantly reviewed. They should be established on a total agreement among those predicting data. The fundamental idea in his book is that forecasting is an important fragment of scientific and political analyses, financial markets and businesses, and virtually everything around us. Predictions are totally inevitable. Nate Silver offers practical experiences in the real life situations a serious focus on what actually transpires in research. In order to search for truth in what exactly happens in data analysis, he goes an extra mile to study the ways of those who are considered and respected by many around the globe as effective predictors. He samples predictors from different fields and investigates what they did to come out successful in their predictions. He studies issues that they have in common and the methods they employed. Therefore, Silver insinuates that most accurate predictions were done by individuals who had better understanding of possibility (Silver, 2012). These individuals are inclined to be industrious and full of humility. The less boastful one is regarding how best he or she can predict, the more accurate he or she is in forecasting forthcoming events. They are keen to minor details that most people will view as unnecessary which will help detect truth from false. Despite Nate Silver being a successful author, I think he still has several shortcomings in his book. First, his overrating of the Bayesian simulation is wanting. In real sense, what Silver considers Bayesian has been in existence in science and statistics for a long time. It is not just as new in the field as he puts it. It fails to beat logic that Silver only thinks that Bayesian model is the best and that research in medicine and finance should adjust from frequentism to Bayesianism. It is rather a bit ridiculous for Silver to say that crisis in finance developed as a result of a number of erroneous simulations like Neural Networks and evolutionary computations; thus, forwarding Bayesian as the only successful and accurate solution. He considers several simulations a failure when it comes to financial and economic matters, yet with further scrutiny, the simulations have been a success in different systems. I largely think that crises in financial department do not necessarily arise due to a number of erroneous simulations as Silver puts it, but due to a corrupted and immorally administrated system. Also, I think Silver is a victim of the very own errors he cautions people about; lack of humility and being overconfident. He repeatedly puts it in his book that the only objective any individual geared towards creating a simulation should have is developing a perfect simulation (Silver, 2012). Of course this is inclined to his areas of concern like polling in politics, and games like gambling, baseball and chess where predictions have to be perfect in order to win. In conclusion, I think Silver is a great analyst and writer. Towards the end of his book, he broadly explains how the issues he has outlined in his book can be effectively applied in real life situations like financial crises in stock markets, wars and other natural calamities like global warming. He states that although different fields have different challenges and demands, they each have specific indicators that should effectively guide individuals in making specific perfect forecasts which seek to create a more conducive environment to live in (Silver, 2012). Every essential decision making and future planning is literally based on the superiority of the forecasts that we make. The more accurate the predictions the more prepared we are to face the future and any probable calamities in it. References Silver, N. (2012). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t (p. 544). London, UK: The Penguin Press. Read More