Does Australia Face a China Choice - Coursework Example

For many years, Australia has had a close relationship with both the United States and China. The country has had a solid military alliance with the U.S., which has been a pillar of its strategic and defense policy since World War II. On the other hand, Australia enjoys an economic relationship with China. Over the years, the economic ties between China and Australia have expanded significantly (Schreer, 2013). The two countries are actively involved economically to the extent that China is the biggest trading partner of Australia today. Considering that the United States is a superpower nation in the world and that influence of China has been immense recently across the globe, a strategic rivalry between the two countries has been witnessed. The existence of the strategic rivalry between China and United States has put Australia at crossword in terms of pleasing the two influential nations in its dealings with them (Henry, 2013). Australia has to focus on the way to manage and balance these two vital relationships. Australia has for long been able to compartmentalize its relationship with both countries. This balance relationship has been evident through being able to make China its largest partner and at the same time keeping and even strengthening its military alliance with the U.S (Schreer, 2013). However, maintaining the balance is becoming harder, because both China and the U.S. currently view their political and strategic relationship with Australia mainly on the basis of their own rivalry. As global competition intensifies, Australia will have to make a choice between incineration and subordination. This paper seeks to comprehensively look into the present state of relations of Australia with the United States and China and the inferences of the rivalry between the two countries on Australia’s relationship with China and United States in the future.

According to Henry (2013), choosing between the United States and China by Australia is a very real possibility, a claim also supported by Lahan (2013). The risks of rivalry and conflict between the United States and China and the fact the countries’ military plans are looking for support from the rest of Asian nations can be viewed as posing a dilemma to the Australia. Any United States efforts to try and maintain their status quo of economic and political control in the region of Asia will have to accept China as a strategic rival. As a matter of fact, the U.S. military has given the opinion that they will oppose the change of status quo by force that may be caused by anyone, especially in reference to South China Sea disputes (White, 2013). Moreover, political analysts have pointed out that the present day quarrels on cyber espionage and territorial claims may lead to a cold war mentality (Schreer, 2013). In this rivalry between the United States and China, Australia finds itself in a very difficult position because any support on any side is a rebound for the other. The scenario can be best exemplified through condemnation of the stationing of the United States Marines in Darwin by China (White, 2013). The measure suggested that the Darwin base is a move in the United States efforts to counter China through forming a network of defenses in Asia area.

Also, there has been pressure by China to have a close relation with Australia which led to U.S. government to become suspicious of Australia giving in to the pressure of China (White, 2013). The conflict between the two nations has forced Australia to play a diplomatic caution between the two countries and this choice may prevail in the near future. It is expected that a conflict between the United States and China may come about in future and the former may expect active support from military of the Australia while the later expect non-engagement of Australia, a scenario which will put Australia in a difficult situation. In such situation, the decision that Australia arrives at will either displease the United States or China (Lahan, 2013). There is little factual evidence suggesting that Australia may be moving away from its close defense relationship with the United States due to the Chinese mounting influence in the Asian region (Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2014). Apart from the common values and norms, the United States and Australia alliance is a function of cost-benefit computation by the two sides as asserted by Lyon (2014). The main benefits of American Alliance for Canberra comes in the forms of stable maintenance, favorable regional security order, and American security guarantees against an existential exterior threat and privileged access to the United States military intelligence and weapons technology (Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2014).

The entire Asian region, including China, has enjoyed plenty peace and stability that has been provided by the unchallenged pre-eminence of the U.S. Navy for the past 5 years. Due to the ever-rising Chinese economy, it is projected by the IMF to overtake the economy of America in the forthcoming few years and will translate to China acquiring a military capacity with great power (Schreer, 2013). If the Chinese economy will become stronger and more established than the US's, the world’s biggest economy, in the next few years, it is expected that China will want to be given more strategic space (Toohey, 2016). In addition, the notion of urging the U.S. to treat China as an equal strategist in the Asian region is an attempted at policy response in the face of some very difficult queries ahead for the United States security allies and partners in the region. Despite China being the largest trading partner with Australia, it still does not enjoy any sizable strategic role in the country with Australia preferring to outsource its security to the United States (Henry, 2013; White, 2013). The security and economic interest will be a point of divergence with the increasing influence of China, and it may eventually make Australia to rethink about China as his ‘godfather’ in the region (Toohey, 2016).

Australia for many years has been the most loyal and dependable ally to the United States. Furthermore, many political analysts and the Australian view the alliance of Australia, and the U.S. has woven into the country’s identity ever since Britain was substituted by the U.S. as the embodiment of Anglo-Saxon dominance in the Western Pacific. The predominance of the United States in the country is still considered both necessary and sufficient conditions for its security on the Asian region (Lyon, 2014). Nonetheless, the rise of China seems to be challenging these views. The Asian power is emerging to become the largest economy in the world for the very first time after Europeans settled in Australia. This trend is for sure changing the focus of the Australia’s economy because as per now it strongly believes that the future prosperity relies mainly on China (Toohey, 2016). This shift raises the strategic questions about whether the United States influence can still guarantee the security of Australia. Though the U.S. has contested with foes in Asia in the past, it has never contested with a country which has the potential of becoming stronger than itself. Therefore, the old notion of the Australia concerning its alliances is beginning to unravel as well as its world assumptions about its position. The country still needs the support of the United States, and it also realizes its role in Asia and thus its role as an ally of Australia must change when Asia slowly transforms itself.

The comfortable consensus between the U.S. and Australia is being overtaken by events, and Australia cannot evade choosing between China and the U.S. given the mounting number of high-stakes foreign policy questions (White, 2013). Australia has already show shown the option of choosing China when it opted to join the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB) in spite of United States being against it (Lyon, 2014). Although, the friendship of Australia with the U.S. is robust to the extent it would look totally absurd for it to go against the United States. However, the decision of joining the AIIB makes was a clear indication of choosing China over the U.S. Australia, on the other hand, is the firm supporter of the United States efforts to maintain the great Chinese territorial claims in the East and South China seas (Schreer, 2013).

White (2013) and Henry (2013) further assert that the looming China choice ought to be given a thought by Australia because of the ambiguity that a network of alliances with the United States may not represent a long-term, stable solution for the future of Asia. There is an ongoing debate in Australia which gives an insight into the developing zeitgeist, considering the ostensible fact that it is an open, candid, and blunt dialog about the United States' future in Asia unencumbered by the conjoint euphemisms and approbation (White, 2013). The discussion is closely monitored, and every one of the allies and partners seems to face the same China dilemma and are privately contemplating about their future alternatives (Schreer, 2013). Therefore, the strategy of hedging through deepening a strategic relation with the United States cannot be presumed as a permanent status quo in Australia as a well as the entire region. The real risk is that the rivalry between U.S. and China will be revived because the later no longer accept the 1972 Mao deal (White, 2013). China today wants a bigger role in the Asia region to match its expanding power, and this can only happen at the costs of United States. This risk raises the most vital question for the Australian foreign policy is whether U.S. and China could negotiate to fresh power-sharing arrangements that may please both the U.S. and China and gives ground for future co-operation (Henry, 2013; Lahan, 2013; White, 2013).

Additionally, the China diplomacy thing of ten years from the 1990s has won being widely welcomed in Beijing. China’s increased involvement in the Asian region matters has been instrumental in making it a more active member than the United States in the regional institutions, thus straightening the Chinese idea of peaceful and constructive rise (Lyon, 2014; Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2014). It is worthwhile to note that the decision of China to embrace an improved US strategic role in the region comes at the time when China has considerably increased its assertiveness in Asia. The public relations gains in Beijing could be effortless weakened through a few years of rash and aggressive policy that reveal the real intentions of China. It also signifies a warning to America that it would be likely to torpedo its popularity if it does not carry itself properly (Schreer, 2013).

The future of Australia relies on both the United States and China (Lyon, 2014). The two countries are currently the richest and most influential nations in the world, and they are by far the most important nations to Australia across the globe. If the relationship between the United States and China goes on well, the future of Asia is promising, and Australia has the excellent opportunity of peace and prosperity (Henry, 2013). However, in case anything goes bad the future of Australia will be dull. The economy of Australia and the two countries are deeply interlinked, and the daily activities between them are generally well managed. The growth of Chinese power is increasing the rivalry with America over the dominance of Asia and thus placing Australia on which choice to make between the two powerful countries.