Geopolitical Consequences of Collapse of Syria - Case Study Example

Geopolitical consequences of collapse of Syria Customer Inserts His/her Name Customer Inserts Name of Tutor Customer Inserts Grade/Course (April 21, 2014) Outline Executive summary Introduction Possible effects of Assad’s fall and installation of a rebel-led government Syrian war Russia and China Iran-U.S. relations Use of strategic weapons Spread of extremism Deterioration of Shiite-Sunni fighting Conclusion Executive summary The Syrian crisis is perhaps the most pressing current international issue. The U.S. envisions a peaceful Syria led by rebel forces that are working to oust Assad while Russia, China, Iran and other allies of Assad have come out to defend him against such a move. A number of forums have been organized by both the U.S. and Russia in a bid to facilitate dialogue but they have been largely unsuccessful. The Syrian issue is therefore sensitive to the U.S. because if it decides to act, it is only likely to get support from NATO, with Russia, Iran, China, and a number of other states going against it. In case the U.S. succeeds in ousting Assad and installing a non-sovereign government, a number of undesirable repercussions will follow. Firstly, depending on the amount of force that the U.S. uses to dethrone Assad, the Syrian crisis may escalate to a full-blown war. Russia, Iran, China and other states are likely to take action against any non-sovereign government installed by the U.S. in Syria. This may worsen relations between the U.S. and both Iran and Russia, which are currently strained. Additionally, having a non-sovereign government in Syria may spread extremist, escalate Sunni-Shiite fighting in Syria and Lebanon, and provide an opportunity for use of Assad’s chemical weapons. Such a scenario will worsen the crisis in Syria. Introduction The incorrigibleness that characterizes United States’ imperialism in its control over wealth and people all over the world is evident in the Syrian crisis. Where the U.S. does not get its desired outcome through economic warfare, it is always keen to employ military interventions or even a bombing campaign to achieve its objectives. The U.S. has in some cases interfered with sovereign states resulting in dilution or loss of sovereignty. Many political commentators have feared that installation of the opposition forces in Syria through a bombing campaign, or by whatever means, is likely to lead to a non-sovereign Syria. Such a scenario is likely to have far-reaching consequences on the current geopolitical landscape. It is even feared that such a scenario would lead to a Somalia-like Syria, which would be a haven for terrorists and criminals.1 Other states like Iran, North Korea, China and Israel are likely to take sides after Assad is toppled. Russia would automatically oppose a U.S. installed government in Syria. The Syrian crisis is likely to replace the Arab spring as the seminal event of the decade in the Middle East, and possibly determine the future of the region.2 This paper is an in-depth analysis of the potential ripple effects on the geopolitical landscape that are likely to occur if Syria ceases to be a sovereign nation. Possible effects of Assad’s fall and installation of a rebel-led government Syrian war The worst-case scenario after installation of a government composed of opposition forces in Syria is a repetition of the Iraq war. This is likely to occur if the U.S. decides to undertake a full-scale invasion of Syria to oust the Syrian regime and install a rebel-led government. “The overall Syrian population is a diverse mix of Alawites, Druze and Kurds, Sunnis, and Armenian Orthodox Christians.3 Were the minority regime of Al-Assad to fall, experts estimate that, like in Egypt, the murky Sunni (as in Saudi Arabia) Muslim Brotherhood organization would emerge as the dominant organized political force, something certainly not welcome in Tel Aviv and certainly not in either Russia or China”.4 There is therefore a high likelihood that a Sunni government in Syria will be fought by Russia, China and even Israel, not mentioning the Shiite in Syria and Lebanon. It is however important to mention that the rebel government will be supported by Sunni Lebanese and Jordanians, who have been supporting the rebels all along.5 Syria has been split into three areas, each of which has terrorist organizations recognized by the U.S. Ironically; the U.S. is currently supporting Syrian opposition to remove Assad from power.6 In Western Syria, there are the Alawites, a minority group to which al-Assad belongs, and Hezbollah fighters. Alawite militants have been crossing over from Lebanon into Syria to support government forces there.7 At the same time, the North Central region of Syria is composed of Sunni Arabs and is controlled by opposition groups that consist of extremist groups like al-Qaeda. “In the Kurdish north, a local off-shoot of the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party, of PKK, which has fought a long guerilla war against the Turkish government operates freely”.8 In case the U.S. succeeds in installing a rebel-led government, Assad’s Shiite supporters will feel aggrieved, and thus they are likely to wage war against the newly installed government. Such a scenario would lead to multilateral action involving the U.S. and NATO on one side and Russia and other Assad’s allies on the other. Russia and China Russia has been supporting the Assad regime in fighting rebels and Putin has been advocating for restoration of peace without ousting Assad. Although Russia has arguably cooperated with the U.S. on the Syrian crisis, Putin has so far been adamant on his stand regarding the options for restoring normalcy in Syria. China respects the issue of sovereignty of nations and thus it is against Obama’s idea of dethroning Assad and installing a government led by the current opposition forces. China wants to ensure that no country interferes with its sovereignty and thus it is against excessive interference in Syria because it feels that such a scenario would set a bad precedence. The aforementioned facts, coupled with the fact that both Russia and China are likely to block any attempts by the U.S. to topple Assad through the U.N. using their veto powers,9 imply that the United States is likely to act alone regarding the Syrian crisis. Iran-U.S. relations Assad depends heavily on Hezbollah, an extremist group backed by Iran, and on Iran as a country. If the U.S. strikes Syria in a bid to dethrone Assad, Iran may decide to take action and come to Assad’s rescue. Iran may even attack Western targets with the help of Hezbollah if the Shiite government of Syria is toppled.10 Such attacks may lead to a major fight with each side receiving support from its allies, ultimately worsening the Syrian crisis. On the other hand, if the U.S. and Russia succeed in holding multilateral talks between government forces in Syria and rebel forces, Iran may feature prominently in the talks and this could be an achievement for the U.S.in its bid to improve relations with Iran. Such talks may lead cooperation by Iran and ultimately ease the bottleneck in the talks on the nuclear program being undertaken by Iran.11 Use of strategic weapons The Assad regime has so far launched attacks on its citizens using chemical weapons.12 The regime has arguably the largest paraphernalia of chemical weapons, part of which it may have transferred to Lebanon in a bid secure them. Early last year, a convoy carrying Assad’s chemical weapons was attacked by Israel near Damascus. It was suspected that the weapons were being transferred to Assad’s Hezbollah allies within Lebanon. The regime’s chemical weapons are currently suspected to be spread in multiple sites within Syria. With the recent territorial losses that the Assad regime has suffered in the recent months, Assad may lose the aforementioned stockpiles of strategic weapons to the rebels, some of whom are extremists. In the case of an Assad-regime fall and installation of rebels to head Syria, the rebels may misuse untold numbers of weapons of mass destruction. Militant neighbors may also influence a rebel-led government leading to use of the aforementioned weapons in Jihad attacks across the globe.13 Spread of extremism In the case of an Assad ouster and subsequent loss of Syria’s sovereignty, Syria will most likely contribute to the spread of extremism in the surrounding states. The crisis in Syria has continually led to displacement of people into and out of Syria. Such refugees have brought problems into the already fragile Syria, “most notably the rise of extremist ideologies from the gulf and North Africa”.14 This could potentially lead to destabilization of regions that have large refugee numbers, particularly pockets of Turkey, Northern Jordan and some areas in Lebanon.15 Actually, extremist groups do not need the whole of Syria to fall in order to compromise the security architecture of the region. If certain regions inside Syria fail, the aforementioned extremist groups are likely to use them as their bases for operations within and beyond Syria.16 The FSA (Free Syrian Army) is composed of several militias that consist of Syrian army renegades, al-Qaeda, Syrian Islamic fighters, Middle East militiamen and Islamic fighters from Syria’s neighbors.17 This implies that a victory for the Syrian rebels, who are said to be receiving help from the CIA, is likely to be counterproductive.18 That is, after dethroning Assad, militiamen will be empowered. Additionally, Assad’s ouster is likely to lessen Assad’s hold on his militia, the Shabiha,19 who are likely to wreck havoc in Syria and surrounding states. Deterioration of Shiite-Sunni fighting In present day Syria, Hezbollah militants in Lebanon with Shiite origins have been fighting their Sunni counterparts across the border in Syria. The Sunnis are currently fighting the Assad regime in Syria, while the Shiite is fighting them not only in support of the Assad regime but also in propagation of previous animosity.20 The Lebanese Shiite militants have therefore been targeting rebel bases in Syria with rocket fire. On the other hand, Sunni residents in Lebanese areas bordering Syria are supporting Syrian rebels and thus the Assad government has been heavily attacking them with rocket fire.21 Additionally, the Syrian regime has continually been accused of shelling Lebanese regions in its border. This situation has caused considerable tensions in these areas.22 In case the Assad regime falls and Syria loses its sovereignty, it will be difficult to control areas of mixed Shiite-Sunni population, particularly South and West of Homs.23 Actually, installation of the Syrian rebels, who are predominantly Sunni, is likely to lead to cross-border attacks by the Shiite Lebanese militants. The above-discussed activities can potentially lead to conflict between Syria and Lebanon, which would be an escalation of the current crisis. The activities are also likely to lead to a full-blown conflict between the Shiite and Sunni militants within Lebanon and it can draw in regional supporters of Shiite and Sunni militants.24 Conclusion From the above discussion, it is evident that installation of a non-sovereign rebel-led government in Syria by the U.S. is likely to worsen the crisis. Firstly, a full-scale invasion by the U.S. is likely to prompt Assad’s allies to come to his rescue leading to a war like in the case of Iraq. Russia and China are likely to shoot down any attempt by the U.S. to use the U.N. in ousting Assad using veto power. If the U.S. acts alone in dethroning Assad, they are likely to intervene. Iran and Hezbollah may attack U.S. forces and opposition forces in Syria if they succeed in ousting Assad. Assad’s removal may also increase Sunni-Shiite fighting, which is a major issue in the region. Having amassed chemical weapons, Assad is likely to work with his allies to wage war on any government installed by the U.S. to rule Syria. Additionally, Assad’s ouster is likely lead to the spread of extremism, with Islamic fighters using Syria as a haven for carrying out their operations. Bibliography Atassi, Basma 2014. Lebanese Sunnis fighting ‘holy war’ in Syria. Accessed April 21, 2014, < http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/02/lebanese-sunnis-fighting-holy-war-syria-201421394828913798.html> Baker, Aryn 2013. Syria’s Assad May Be Losing Control Over His Deadly Militias. Accessed April 21, 2014, < http://world.time.com/2013/09/11/syrias-assad-may-be-losing-control-over-his-deadly-militias/> Bello, Judy 2012. Hands off Syria! About the Syrian Meltdown. Accessed April 21, 2014, < http://www.countercurrents.org/bello290612.htm> Bernard, Anne 2014. 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