Canada-Iran Strategy - Coursework Example

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Iran poses a fundamental policy concern to Canada in light of Iran’s strategic move towards embracing the nuclear power concept and becoming a nuclear power in the world’s most volatile region, the Middle East. Canada has prominent objectives incorporating counter-terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, regional stability and economic affluence which are directly affected by the happenings in Iran. On assessing the economic, demographic and political conditions and trends in Iran, there is clear perspective that the Iranian government is almost near the full achievement of relative stability and resistant to external pressures for a significant change. The population growth has alleviated while the higher oil prices and the improved economic policies laid down in the 90’s have considerably strengthened the economy of Iran; consumer spending is shifting towards trends evidenced in more developed nations while the number of women in the labor force is gradually becoming more.1 The reigning president of Iran is strongly against the American and Western influence; he views the emergence of confrontational policies as a means to fostering support politically. Although currently the ethnic minorities have no voice to oppose the regime, the Iranian society is gradually turning to be more contemporary, and the levels of education are increasing. The emergence of the internet has made the information flows be relatively free. Consequently, the media have engaged the public in debates touching on diverse policies and ways towards effective implementation. 1 For Canada strategy vis-à-vis, Iran to be influential, Canada should avoid destabilizing military confrontation with Iran while encouraging tendencies and policies aimed at favoring economic expansion and democracy in the nation. INTRODUCTION Every given state aims at being protected and wealthy. According to Steven Holloway, all states seek to survive and be secure from attack, be as sovereign as possible, maintain domestic unity and cohesion, be economically prosperous and have principled self-justifications and prestige in the international arena.2 The fact behind the differences in the individual foreign policies is the unique strategy devised by each state to achieve the common goals, with respect to their varying contexts (geographical situations, histories, and resource allocations.)3 This paper seeks to develop a Canadian strategy, vis-à-vis Iran that would enable Canadian policymakers to influence Iran’s actions along the lines more, favorable to the national interest of Canada. In doing so, the paper identifies five areas of Canadian national interest and highlights the means by which Canada’s national objectives can be achieved. The paper also outlines possible limits on the success of certain Canadian policies given the present political, demographic, and economic situation in Iran; it also evaluates the potential effectiveness in making use of some of Iran’s weaknesses. The paper concludes with a recommended approach to Canada-Iran relations. OUTLINING STRATEGIC CONTEXT The contemporary world is locked with volatile and unpredictable circumstances. Globalization brings the concept of developments abroad (such as 9/11 and subsequent attacks in other countries, state failures in Afghanistan and Somalia, to name a few) having a profound impact on the welfare of Canadians.1 According to Canada First Defence Strategy, the key factual issues informing its strategic environment are (1) ethnic, and border disagreements, fragile states, resurgent nationalism and international criminal networks persist posing a great challenge towards international stability, (2) the imbalanced access to resources and uneven economic allocation proving to be an increasing source of regional tension, (3) the continuing upsurge of conventional forces in Asia Pacific, (4) the proliferation of advanced weapons and the surfacing of new nuclear-enabled nations governed by erratic regimes in such important regions as the Middle East and Central Asia.2 In addition to global security challenges, the recent changes in the helm of the international economy feed into Canadian strategic context, as well. The rise of flexible emerging-market states in the global economy is one vivid outcome of this ongoing transformation.1 According to the World Bank’s projections, by 2025, emerging economies (namely, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Russia) will likely to be major contributors to global growth and key players in financial markets thus shifting economic power to the East and underpinning multipolarity of the world order.2 With the redefining of the global economy, it has become ever more important for Canada to tackle this shift strategically to ensure its long-term economic prosperity. DEFINING CANADIAN NATIONAL INTEREST Canada as a political community has been formed by prevalent attachment to political values, which “have made this country one of the most peaceful, stable, and wealthy in the world.”3 These values include the liberal principles of equality, democratic forms of governance, multicultural tolerance, respect for diversity, alleviation of poverty, and sustainable environment. Human rights and human security have also served as steering values for Canadian, foreign policy. Nevertheless, these values should not be confused with multi-faceted Canadian national interest. Stephen Krasner in his book “Defending the National Interests”, outlines a method for the determination of a state’s national interest. He outlines three components of national interest: first, they are objectives related to general societal interests; secondly, they persist over time, and thirdly, they have consistent ranking of importance.1 The following areas of Canadian national interest represent consistent goals that appear to persist over time: 1. National security constituting territorial sovereignty, national defense and international security; 2. Defending political, economic, and cultural autonomy; 3. Preserving national unity; 4. Ensuring economic prosperity; 5. Projection of Canadian identity (peacekeeping, multilateralism, good global citizenship, multiculturalism). Canada-Iran: Current Status and Canada’s Interests/Objectives vis-à-vis Iran Diplomatic relations between Canada and Iran were established in 1996. Nevertheless, since late 2007 the two states have reduced their diplomatic representation to charge level. With ongoing concerns, the Canadian-Iran, political and economic relations have been governed by the Controlled Engagement Policy (CEP). Owing to this, Canada placed limits on its contacts with Iran: for instance; Canada prevented direct air links establishment between the two countries and avoided opening of new Iranian consulates and cultural centers in Canada.2 The Canadian authorities further tightened the CEP in 2005. Currently official contacts linking Canada and the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) are narrowed to four subjects: (1) the human rights conditions in Iran; (2) Iran’s nuclear program and its lack of respect for non-proliferation obligations; (3) the case of Mrs. Zahra Kazemi killed in an Iranian prison under the current regime officials; and (4) Iran‘s position in the region.1 Given the outlined strategic environment and recent developments in Canada-Iran relations, Canada’s interests and objectives vis-à-vis Iran are focused in the areas of fostering security, achieving economic prosperity and promoting Canada’s position with regard to human rights situation in Iran. Ensuring Security: It is one of Canada’s vital interests and policy objectives to guarantee citizens protection at home and abroad and to contribute to effective global governance and international security by policing instability in the Persian Gulf region and insisting on Iran’s non-proliferation regime obeisance. Although the International Atomic Energy Agency still lacks ultimate evidence of Iran’s military, nuclear program, along with its civilian program, it is worrisome for Canada that Iran might obtain nuclear weapons and use it in its strategic interests.2 Achieving Economic Prosperity: In light of the shifting economic powers, it is essential for Canada to expand economic relationships with the emerging markets and accelerate trade diversification. According to the data from FAIT Canada, in 2011, the Canadian merchandise with Iran totaled $162 million with $127 million consisting of exports (the massive exports were agricultural-foods products, pharmaceuticals and machinery); imports during 2011 totaled $35 million which comprised of food products and carpets.1 While bilateral investment is currently insignificant with lack of Iranian investment in Canada and the overall trade not being active in recent years, the opportunity exists for the Canadian state to benefit from improved economic relations with Iran. Promoting Canadian Identity: Canada has constantly and strongly supported the strengthening of human rights and the improvement of democracy. Specifically, in relation to Iran Canada has effectively led a resolution on the Situation of Human Rights in the country at the UN General Assembly. The embracement of this resolution by numerous states “drives a tough indication to the IRI that the international community remains intensely concerned by its deteriorating human rights situation, which it has a compulsion to critically and expansively address.”2 Canada has a clear interest in supporting ongoing democratic changes in the Iranian society. ANALYSING IRAN’S STRATEGIC PROFILE Domestic Politics Iran has established itself as a constitutional, Islamic republic having a theocratic structure of government: a spiritual scholar, the Supreme Leader has the ultimate political power. The official religion of Iran is Shia Islam, and Islamic law is the foundation of the state’s authority. According to Crane, the political system in Iran remains a paradox within the Middle East: the uniqueness with Iran is that it has experienced Islamic revolution but has institutionalized many democratic principles.1 The clerical elites hold ultimate power; they control the entrance into political positions of all individuals and bar anyone against the legitimacy of the current regime; the formal bureaucracy is influenced by informal networks dominated by the clerical elite. Concurrently, the citizens of Iran elect members of the Majilis, the President and local governments’ officials, as well as they, elect the members of the Assembly of Experts, which in turn selects the Supreme Leader. The elected officials have the right to make decisions on diverse issues, including the national budget. The elections are held regularly and peacefully, and the winning candidate assumes the office; high numbers of citizens take part in the elections which is a signal of their “support; nevertheless, ambivalent for the political system.”2 Ethnicity Challenges Iran can be termed as a pluralistic society with the Persians being the predominant ethnic cultural group. Iranian population has important Turkic minorities like the Azeris and Arabs (prevailing in the southwest). Among other ethnic groups, the Kurds, Balochi, Bakhtyari, Lurs are larger in numbers than Armenians, Assyrians, Jews, and Brahuis (or Brohi).1 Ethnic divides persist in Iran but do not play a crucial role in influencing Iran’s leadership: although Persians constitute only half of the Iranian population, the Iranian authorities have been relatively effective in instilling an Iranian identity in its citizens belonging to most other ethnic groups by emphasizing the unifying role of Shi’ism which nurtures Iranian nationalism.2 The minority religious and ethnic groups (namely, Bahai, Arabs, Kurds, Azeris) are continuously being suppressed by the Iranian government. Thus, some areas in the country where these minorities live, particularly Baluchistan border near Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Kurdish Northwest of the nation, and areas near the Iraqi border are still insecure.3 Even though, major ethnic dissent is being suppressed by the current regime, scholars note that minority groups continue to generate political demands focused on language use, allocation of government jobs, and equitable division of Iran’s oil revenues.4 Non-Persians are strong activists in the expansion of civil liberties and the powers of elected government officials; they offer firm support to the reformist former president, Mohammad Khatammi. Thus, the ethnic minorities are likely to be the driving force in moving the nation towards a more democratic system of governance. Demographics The size of the Iranian population distinguishes Iran from the rest of the Middle East: in 2007, the total population of the Middle East exclusive of Iran and Turkey was 128.8 million while the population of Iran was a total of 65.4 million people exceeding more than half of the whole region.1 The governments of Iran’s largest neighbours, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, have found Iran’s population supremacy to be worrisome for maintaining the regional balance of power (Iran’s population surpasses that of Iraq and Saudi Arabia by more than double). Nevertheless, Iran’s population growth rate has slowed dramatically since 1980. The current statistics suggest that, among all the Middle Eastern countries, Iran has the slowest population growth rate.2 Some scholars assert that presently the Iranian government is faced by a major, pressing problem of how to meet expectations of the greater number of Iranians living in urban areas who demand better quality public services, lower housing costs and are increasingly dissatisfied with high levels of corruption.3 Economy The economic sanctions imposed in the current confrontation between Iran, and the US has stimulated discussions of Iran’s economic situation to the front of the policy debate regarding Iran. With 10% of the world’s oil (approximately 130 barrels of proved reserves) and 14% of its gas reserves, (about 169 billion equivalent barrels), Iran’s hydrocarbons reserves are second to Saudi Arabia’s.1 Iran’s economy has been growing in the past decade owing to mounting oil prices leading to raised incomes of the population at all levels. Nevertheless, rising oil prices do not encompass the only source of economic enlargement. The policy changes under the Khatami administration – the unification of the exchange rat, as well as the reduction of import barriers – have contributed to augmented output and employment in trade and manufacturing and accelerated financially viable growth over the last decade.2 If the Ahmadinejad government demonstrates further reluctance to carry on these policies, the Iranian development might slow down posing financial difficulties. In terms of some important economic indicators, the rate of inflation has been a disturbing issue to the citizens as it remains high and runs at double digits. Provided the effectiveness of monetary control is not improved, it might result in continued high rates of inflation, slower growth, and discontent with the current system. Furthermore, the Iranian government faces immense pressure to generate employment for the significantly increasing number of young jobseekers. The Iranian youth is becoming more and more dissatisfied with their employment prospects in light of the strong governmental control and Iran’s corrupted bureaucratic, economic system. National Interest, Foreign Policy and Security Concerns Iran’s strategic context is influenced by a number of factors ranging from the US presence in the region to antagonistic Iraq to the west and undecided ethnic tensions with the countries to Iran’s north and east. Iran’s key national interest is to ensure its internal security which renders to the safeguarding of the Islamic revolution that started with the defeat of the Shah in 1979. The Iranian authorities are guided by objectives such as protecting the nation from the opposition (for instance, Mujahedin along Iran-Iraqi border); keeping territorial unity against possible separatist movements in Azerbaijan and Kurdistan fighting for autonomy, and averting the invasions of religious ethnic rebels from Iran’s adjacent states.1 The pragmatic foreign policy goals for Iran include gaining dominance over the Persian Gulf and the Middle East as a whole, shielding itself from internal and external threats and expanding trade ties. In their Iranian case study, Federation of American Scientists asserts, “Iran’s internal security brought about by threats on all borders will preoccupy its military to contemplate on withdrawing the likelihood that the stability innate in those regions does not spread to Iran.”1 According to this study, Iran will focus its military strategies on maintaining the internal security by preventing the rise of nationalistic uprisings amid its ethnic-religious minorities as well as restraining the presence of the US to the Persian Gulf.2 In terms of Iran’s perceived external threats, Iran was always aware that Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Pakistan and Israel were dissatisfied with the empowerment of the Islamic regime; this threat was highly acute in the Iran-Iraq war, in 1980-1989. The relationship between Iran and most of the Arab neighbors have been tense because of Iran’s attempts to extend its Islamic revolution.3 Specifically, Iran took part in the plot to remove from power the Bahrain Government (1981); it supported Shi’ites who bombed Western embassies in Kuwait (1983); Iranian pilgrims rioted during the hajj in Mecca, Saudi Arabia (1987); ongoing Iranian support of the Egyptian Sunni fundamentalists underlies Egypt’s mistrust.4 Thus, Iran’s attempts to regain the position of a key actor in its traditional sphere of influence, the Persian Gulf, are restrained by the anti-Iranian policies of the Western countries as well as challenges posed by Iran’s strong neighbors. With respect to building trade ties, Russia and China regard Iran as a profitable market for military exports and for nuclear technology. For China, Iran represents an important source of the oil and natural gas which China needs for its expanding economy. Russia may also consider investment opportunities in Iran’s oil and gas sectors to obtain additional gas provisions to supplement its own export agreements via its pipelines. Billions of trade dollars are transacted between Iran and major European Union states, including Germany, France, Britain and Italy. Japan also imports Iranian oil while exporting a variety of products which amounts in billions annually. Furthermore, Iran is aligning itself with the sub-Saharan African countries as it has with numerous Latin American countries like Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua. The economic and diplomatic ties of Iran with South Africa are very strong, and like most of the above mentioned nations, South Africa has profited from Iranian manufactured goods and natural resources.1 CANADIAN POLICY OPTIONS AND RECOMMENDED APPROACH Option 1: Talking Tough on Iran Human rights and Iran’s nuclear program, have received the most attention of the four components that formulate the current Canadian policy towards Iran. Canada should forge ahead in its support of the UN resolutions insisting on Iran’s suspension of the uranium enrichment and other related initiatives geared towards obtaining nuclear weapons. Acting in concert with the US and their regional allies, Canada should support policies aimed at ensuring security and serenity in the Middle East and Persian Gulf even if it calls for military confrontation. The risk of pursuing this policy option stems from the fact that the majority of the Iranian population shares the common view that their country has similar rights as other nations to engage in nuclear energy development which includes establishing and maintaining enrichment facilities.1 This means that, in the event of Iran’s nuclear infrastructures being bombed, the public would support a retaliatory response. Canada should also capitalize on its international reputation for human rights and freedoms by initiating a coalition of like-minded nations to collectively call for bringing Iranian President and the Supreme Leader before the International Criminal Court on charges for the Direct and Public Incitement to Commit Genocide. With support from Khameni, Ahmadinejad has engaged in genocidal rhetoric against Israel.2 The recent example of Rwanda has demonstrated that failure of the international community to act preemptively leads to catastrophic consequences. Thus, Canada must be on the forefront of policies aiming at preventing genocidal intentions of Iran. Option 2: Using Soft Power Canada is viewed by Iran in a better light than the UK and the US3 - Canada ought to take advantage of this and recognize that multilateralism is an instrument, not an end in itself. The historical lessons (relations with Cuba and China, leadership in the areas of land-mines, human security, and responsibility to protect) suggest that Canada can enhance its interests taking a lead and pursuing policies that are not always popular with its stronger partners. Over the course, of the next few years, political transformation in Iran is most likely to take place gradually and as a result of democratic, societal changes, internal debate and elections, not through aggressive confrontation. Canada should engage with Iranian society and support ongoing democratic transformations. Canadian policy should be aimed at persuading the US and its allies (particularly Israel) to not attack Iran since military attack might destabilize the entire region and lead to devastating consequences. Neither should Ottawa support the Islamic regime in any way. Instead, the focus should be made on helping Iranians engage in a constructive dialogue regarding issues concerning the democratization of their state. Canada should expand efforts to engage in public diplomacy, especially with minority ethnic groups and women. Option 3: Supporting Liberalization of Iran’s Economy Canadian interests would be better served by a more liberalized vibrant Iranian economy. Thus, Canada ought to encourage the development of markets in Iran, support the IMF and World Bank’s efforts to encourage better economic management and not oppose Iran’s accession to the WTO. Canada needs to work in cooperation with other states and international institutions to pursue its policy goals vis-à-vis Iran. In recent years, the IMF and the World Bank have possibly been the only outside organizations which had a visible impact on Iranian economic policies. Canada needs to encourage the relations between the two institutions and Iran. Of particular interest should be the support of credit provisions to the Iranian government as loan financing may foster more liberal economic policies and increase a number of independent firms in the country. From the international trade perspective, Canada could potentially derive great economic benefits by leveraging trade relations with Iran. Iran’s membership in the WTO would have several positive influences, for instance it could serve as a deterrent of import quotas impositions and exchange rate manipulations by the Iranian government. This in turn, would facilitate access to the import markets for Iranian entrepreneurs and support the restructuring of the Iranian economy to include a more independent business sector. Recommended Way Forward In pursuing its interests vis-à-vis Iran, Canada should avoid military confrontation with the Islamic Republic because this policy choice could destabilize not only the entire region but the overall global security system. The outlined social, economic, and political trends in Iran suggest that internal transformations are likely to underlie the country’s gradual move towards a more democratic government and a more liberalized economy, which would be of strategic benefit to Canada. While confrontation is possible, the Canadian government should eliminate it and focus on encouraging policies that support the development of economic and individual freedoms in Iran. Canada could aim at supporting members of minority ethnic groups who advocate for expanding such freedoms. Canada could also use its abilities to stimulate loan provision to Iran through global financial institutions which may strengthen the independent, entrepreneurial class and reduce the influence of the clerical elites. This course of action would more likely lead to changing anti-Western stance of Iran to a more cooperative and favorable one for Canada. References Canada First Defence Strategy. National Defence & the Canadian Forces. Canada-Iran Relations. Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada. www.iran.gc.ca Contemporary Iran: Economy, Society, Politics. Ali Gheissari (Ed.). Ofxord University Press. 2009. Crane, Keith. Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities. RAND Corporation. 2008. Engler, Yves. The Black-Book of Canadian-Foreign Policy. Fernwood Publishing. 2009. Farr, Grant. Modern Iran. McGraw-Hill College. 1999. Global, Development Horizons, 2011, Multipolarity: The New Global Economy. World Bank. Washington, DC. 2011. Holloway, Steven. Canadian Foreign Policy: Defining the National Interest. Broadview Press. 2006. In the National Interest: Canadian Foreign Policy in an Insecure World. Canadian Defense and Foreign Affairs Institute. 2005. Iran and the World: Some Contemporary Developments. Bahram Navazeni (Ed.). Cambridge Scholars Publishing. 2010. Israel and a Nuclear-Iran: Implications for Arms-Control-Deterrence, & Defense. Ephraim Kam (Ed.). Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv. 2008. Kam, Ephraim. A Nuclear Iran: What Does it Mean, and What Can be Done. Memorandum 88. Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv. 2007. Kamvara, Mehran. Iran’s Intellectual Revolution. Cambridge University Press. 2008. Krasner, Stephen. Defending ,the National, Interest: Raw Materials Investments, and U.S. foreign Policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1978. Marschall, Christin. Iran’s Persian Gulf Policy: From Khomeini to Khatami. London, New York. 2003. Mattair, Thomas. Global Security Watch – Iran: A Reference Book. Westport, Conn.: Praeger Security International. 2008. Nuclear Instability in Asia. David Rudd and Stephanie Carvin (Eds). The Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies. 2003. Potter, Evan. Branding Canada: Projecting Canada’s Soft Power through Public Diplomacy. McGill-Queen’s University Press. 2009. Schafer, Paul. Canada’s International Cultural Relations: Key to Canada’s Role in the World. World Culture Project. 1996. Shane, Kristen. Why Iran Sees Canada in a Better Light than the US and the UK. Embassy Magazine. 11/30/2011. Transformations in Global Defense Markets & Industries: Implications for the Future of Warfare, Country Studies: Iran, National Intelligence Council. Wood, Bernard. The World’s Stakes in Canada: The Achievements and the Potential of a Middle Power. International Studies Programme, Glendon College, York University, Toronto. 1992. Read More

The fact behind the differences in the individual foreign policies is the unique strategy devised by each state to achieve the common goals, with respect to their varying contexts (geographical situations, histories, and resource allocations.)3 This paper seeks to develop a Canadian strategy, vis-à-vis Iran that would enable Canadian policymakers to influence Iran’s actions along the lines more, favorable to the national interest of Canada. In doing so, the paper identifies five areas of Canadian national interest and highlights the means by which Canada’s national objectives can be achieved.

The paper also outlines possible limits on the success of certain Canadian policies given the present political, demographic, and economic situation in Iran; it also evaluates the potential effectiveness in making use of some of Iran’s weaknesses. The paper concludes with a recommended approach to Canada-Iran relations. OUTLINING STRATEGIC CONTEXT The contemporary world is locked with volatile and unpredictable circumstances. Globalization brings the concept of developments abroad (such as 9/11 and subsequent attacks in other countries, state failures in Afghanistan and Somalia, to name a few) having a profound impact on the welfare of Canadians.

1 According to Canada First Defence Strategy, the key factual issues informing its strategic environment are (1) ethnic, and border disagreements, fragile states, resurgent nationalism and international criminal networks persist posing a great challenge towards international stability, (2) the imbalanced access to resources and uneven economic allocation proving to be an increasing source of regional tension, (3) the continuing upsurge of conventional forces in Asia Pacific, (4) the proliferation of advanced weapons and the surfacing of new nuclear-enabled nations governed by erratic regimes in such important regions as the Middle East and Central Asia.

2 In addition to global security challenges, the recent changes in the helm of the international economy feed into Canadian strategic context, as well. The rise of flexible emerging-market states in the global economy is one vivid outcome of this ongoing transformation.1 According to the World Bank’s projections, by 2025, emerging economies (namely, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Russia) will likely to be major contributors to global growth and key players in financial markets thus shifting economic power to the East and underpinning multipolarity of the world order.

2 With the redefining of the global economy, it has become ever more important for Canada to tackle this shift strategically to ensure its long-term economic prosperity. DEFINING CANADIAN NATIONAL INTEREST Canada as a political community has been formed by prevalent attachment to political values, which “have made this country one of the most peaceful, stable, and wealthy in the world.”3 These values include the liberal principles of equality, democratic forms of governance, multicultural tolerance, respect for diversity, alleviation of poverty, and sustainable environment.

Human rights and human security have also served as steering values for Canadian, foreign policy. Nevertheless, these values should not be confused with multi-faceted Canadian national interest. Stephen Krasner in his book “Defending the National Interests”, outlines a method for the determination of a state’s national interest. He outlines three components of national interest: first, they are objectives related to general societal interests; secondly, they persist over time, and thirdly, they have consistent ranking of importance.

1 The following areas of Canadian national interest represent consistent goals that appear to persist over time: 1. National security constituting territorial sovereignty, national defense and international security; 2. Defending political, economic, and cultural autonomy; 3. Preserving national unity; 4. Ensuring economic prosperity; 5. Projection of Canadian identity (peacekeeping, multilateralism, good global citizenship, multiculturalism).

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