Syrian: Civil War - Term Paper Example

of the Political Science of the Concerned August 12, Syria Introduction Syria is an Arab nation placed in Western Asia. The interesting thing about Syria is that it is a country that is indeed strategically placed in the Middle East.1 On its western borders Syria is akin to Lebanon and has the Mediterranean Sea located on its South Western tip. On the northern side of Syria lies Turkey. On its southern borders Syria has Jordan as its neighbour and Iraq is located on the Eastern side of Syria. The strategic and political importance of Syria in the Middle East is further enhanced by the fact that the country has the Jewish state of Israel placed in the south-west.2 The city of Damascus is the capital of Syria. The amazing thing is that Syria also happens to be an Arab nation that has an immense historical and cultural significance. The topography of Syria is richly endowed with fertile and green plains, expansive deserts and mountains. In an ethnic and religious context, Syria indeed happens to be a multicultural and multiethnic nation. Though Sunni Arabs happen to be a religious and ethnic majority in Syria, still Syria is also the home to vary other religious and ethnic groups like Shia Muslims, Christians, Turks, Kurds, Armenians and Yezidi.3 The multicultural and multi-religious demography of Syria if on the one side makes it a culturally rich nation, on the other side the ethnic and religious plurality of Syria makes it vulnerable to ethnic conflicts and violence. Syria is a nation with an unstable and tumultuous past, a trend which is largely reflected in its present chaotic political and strategic situation. Thereby, the current political uncertainty in Syria has the potential to jeopardize the peace in the neighbouring Arab nations also, not to mention its ramifications regarding the Arab-Israel conflict. Politics Syria as a modern Arab nation, gained its freedom from the French colonial rule in the year 1946.4 Yet, the sad thing is that Syria always had more than ample share of political unrest and instability. Much of such political instability in the past 60 years could be attributed to the divergent interests and intentions of an array of ethnic groups and communities that constitute the modern day Syria. The other thing is that historically speaking, varied Western colonial powers did prefer to set these ethnic groups against each other to influence the local politics in the Middle East. President Nasser of Egypt unified Syria with Egypt and the country remained so for only three years.5 A military coup did away with the unification of Syria with Egypt and subsequently the pan-Arab Baath party gained control of Syria in the year 1963.6 Since then, Syria has remained continually under the control of the Alawite military leaders, which happened to belong to a Shia sect in Syria7. Factually speaking, the dominion of a Shia regime in Syria is resented by the Sunni majority. The leadership of the Baath party patriarch, President Hafez al-Assad, spanning over the period1970-2000, was marked by twofold political priorities. One was to discernibly owe allegiance to a sternly anti-West stance, and the other was to hold a grip on the nation through a highly authoritarian and intolerant system of governance. Besides, the Baath Party historically took a tough stance against the existence of Israel and supported the varied militant and political groups active in the West Bank and Gaza. The Baath regime believed in dealing a raw hand to any sort of political opposition in the country, and has been known to be responsible for thousands of state sponsored deaths and eliminations8. The primary objective of the regime was to consolidate its power by resorting to a twin fold policy of appeasement and intimidation. Since 1963 Syria had been under the emergency law, a ploy justified by citing a state of continual war with Israel and which was rescinded in 2011. This arrangement to a large extent justified the autocratic and tough tactics of the regime against the political dissidents, and helped the regime in controlling and silencing any sort of opposition to its rule. In 2000, Bashar al-Assad, the son of President Hafez al-Assad gained control of Syria. To begin with President Assad extended a measure of political reforms in Syria, which did provide for freedom of expression and a space for dissenting voices in Syria9. However, going by the popular uprising taking place in Syria in 2011, motivated by the Arab Spring, the government of President Assad gave way to large scale violence aimed at silencing the protestors.10 However, these protests eventually led to much political and military organization on the part of rival groups, giving way to a bloody civil war. Economy Traditionally speaking in the past 50 years, before the advent of the civil war, Syria happened to be a middle income nation with a stable and largely sound economy. The economy of Syria traditionally relied on the important three sectors that are petroleum, commerce and agriculture11. Yet, the fact that need to be mentioned is that Syria happens to be an Arab nation marked by glaring economic inequalities, where a select few reaped the fruits of economic development, while a poor majority remained sidelined and neglected12. The more recent global economic meltdown severely impacted the economy of Syria. Before the Civil War, the nation had an unemployment rate of 20 percent.13 Besides, the nation has over the years accumulated large amounts of foreign debt owing to its reliance on foreign aid and development funds.14 In a present context, the economy of Syria has registered a marked plunge since the starting of the civil war in 2011. Besides, the Syrian economy has literally come down to its knees owing to the international sanctions imposed on the Assad regime in 2013, the large scale damage to the national infrastructure, increasing unemployment and inflation and the fall in the domestic production and levels of consumption. The civil war accompanied by the curtailed capacity of the state to help the poor and the needy has indeed given way to a humanitarian crisis in Syria. Besides, the opening up of the economy prior to the civil war by President Assad has been arrested, in favour of a highly regulated economic system.15 In the long term, the possibility of a resuscitation of the Syrian economy appears to be bleak and doubtful. The economic sanctions placed on Syria in 2013 are poised to further isolate the Syrian economy, leading to high budgetary deficits, soaring inflation rate, dwindling of the petroleum production, the main stay of the Syrian economy and a further increase in the national debt owing to the money being spent on procuring supplies, arms, ammunitions and weapons by the state. The irony is that in the current context it is next to impossible to diagnose and predict the state of the Syrian economy. This is because in the war torn nation, it is impossible to collect the required economic and demographic data and statistics. Syrian Army Before the civil war, the Syrian army comprised of 220, 00 armed men and about 350, 00 personnel in reserve16. Considering the large scale defections during the civil war, the army strength in the present times stands at 125, 000 soldiers, out of which about 80, 000 remain staunchly loyal to the government17. Most of the arms, ammunition and weapons used by the Syrian army happen to be of Russian origins, comprising of an assortment of T-72 tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery pieces, amphibious vehicles, and missiles like SCUD B, SS-21, FROG 7 and SCUD C.18 In addition the Syrian army also has thousands of portable anti aircraft systems. The country also has a navy possessing 3 submarines, 16 auxiliary units, amphibious vessels, 16 missile boats, 11 patrol boats, and 2 frigates. The Syrian air force has about 1, 000 well trained and loyal pilots19. In addition the Syrian air force has about 400 bombers and fighter planes and about 300 combat helicopters and 40 transport planes, mostly of Russian make20. In addition Syria has an intact and functional air defence system, though the opposition forces do not have any sort of air power. In addition, as per the reliable sources, the Syrian army is also backed by about 7,000 well trained and hardy Lebanese Hezbollah fighters and many Iranian paramilitary personnel. Besides, the Assad regime was also known to possess weapons of mass destruction21. Thereby, the thing that needs to be noticed is that though the military regime of President Assad has lost nearly sixty percent of the Syrian territory to the opposition forces, the Syrian army still remains a strong and battle worthy force. Hence, it would be really immature to underestimate the fire power of the Syrian army, irrespective of the large scale losses suffered by it. As the opposition forces are advancing, the Syrian army is evincing a strong opposition and considerable retaliation, not even hesitating from targeting the civilian structures. Hence, in the light of these facts, one could expect the Syrian civil war to continue for quite a long time. Current Political Situation In the current times the civil war in Syria comes out as a never ending conflict between the forces loyal to President Assad an array of militia groups and defected soldiers comprising the Syrian opposition. As the fighting in the Syrian civil war intensifies, the Syrian regime is blatantly resorting to using heavy weaponry, artillery, missiles, tanks and aircrafts against the Syrian opposition, never hesitating from punishing the civilian areas loyal to the opposition forces. Going by this conflict, the human face of this civil war has also taken a nasty hit. As per the UN estimates, nearly 680,000 people have fallen victim to this never ending and extended civil war22. Almost 4.25 million Syrians have been displaced by this conflict, of which nearly 1.6 million Syrians are living as refuges in neighbouring Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and Jordan. Both the sides are blaming each other for the civilian causalities and the hardships faced by the common people.23 The Assad regime is also making claims that many fighters loyal to al-Qaeda are making the ranks of the opposition forces. To some extent these claims are believed to be true by the Western media. In an international context, the Western powers remain undecided as to the ways and means to resolve this crisis. Going by the arms embargo placed on Syria, Russia has moved in to help Assad regime militarily and on the international platforms. In the meantime a radical Islamist group ISIS, affiliating to intolerant Salafi Islam has declared an Islamic caliphate by joining the Syrian and Iraqi territories under its control, and intends to spread its forces in the neighbouring nations also24. This has indeed added a new dimension to the Syrian conflict, which the Western world simply cannot ignore or sideline. Perhaps that is why President Obama has ordered limited air strikes against ISIS25. Conclusion Going by the large scale loss of life and property in the Syrian civil war, the war does not seem to end decisively in the near future. If on the one side the Syrian regime is well armed and is supported by a significant chunk of its loyal army, the opposition forces are also well motivated and committed to the cause. Besides, many terrorist and radical groups have entered the Syrian civil war to facilitate their own political agenda. Thereby, the only way out seems to be to bring the two warring sides on the table and an astute mediation by the Western nations aimed at removing indifferences to initiate a viable ceasefire. Bibliography Antoun, Richard T and Donald Quataert. Syria. Albany, NY: The State University of New York Press, 1991. Felter, Joe. “The Airstrikes can Only do So Much to Combat ISIS”. The New York Times, August 14, 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/08/13/the-strengths-and-limits-of-air-power-6/airstrikes-can-only-do-so-much-to-combat-isis (Accessed August 15, 2014) Kechechian, Joseph. “What is the Syrian Arab Army Military Capability”. Gulf News, September 8, 2013. http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syria/what-is-syrian-arab-army-military-capability-1.1228699v (Accessed August 12, 2014). Marwan, Bishara. The Invisible Arab. New York: Nation Books, 2013. Rabil, Robert G. Embattled Neighbours. Boulder, CO: Lynne Reiner, 2008. “Syria Profile”. BBC News Middle East. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14703856 (Accessed August 12, 2014) “Syria”. The World Factbook, CIA. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sy.html (Accessed August 12, 2014). “The Syrian Refugee Situation”. European Resettlement Network. http://www.resettlement.eu/page/syrian-refugee-situation (Accessed August 12, 2014). Young, William. “To Fight ISIS, Make Peace with Syria’s Assad”. USA Today, August 13, 2014. http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/08/13/rand-isis-arab-airstrikes-column/13863321/ (Accessed August 14, 2014). Read More