How A Significant Terrorist Weapons of Mass Destruction Attack Might Be Conducted - Research Paper Example

Assessment of How a Significant Terrorist Weapon of Mass Destruction Attack Might be Conducted Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) are an increasing concern in modern day terms when building war-time strategies of taking over terrorist groups or despot regimes. A strategy must address the different types of possibilities that the enemy might hit back with against the aggressor, not only in the battlefield but also at the homeland base. It is debatable as to which one would be the most damaging, as each has its value and purpose. The definition of WMD, as defined by American law (18 USC §2332a), states that it can be: an explosive destructive device; a weapon that causes bodily injury or death through a release and dissemination of toxic or poisonous chemicals; or any weapon that can release a life-threatening amount of radiation or radioactivity, such as the hydrogen bomb (FBI, 2012, web). In Jessica Stern’s book, The Ultimate Terrorists, Stern presents a scenario of a nuclear WMD blowing up the Empire State Building, taking out the whole building and leaving a 120-foot crater in the ground. There would be nothing left of the building itself or of the 20,000 people who were working there at the time of the blast. The residual effects from the blast would also drop any buildings within a 600-foot radius, and nuclear fallout would kill or severely injure people up to a quarter mile away. Oddly enough, this book was published two years before the 9/11 disaster which took down the Twin Towers in New York City and a part of the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. While not quite as devastating as Stern’s scenario in the nuclear sense, the use of planes as WMD left repercussions that endure to this day in the forms of personal loss of life, devastation within the financial system and a certain loss of American freedoms and innocence, perhaps necessary in order to preserve life in future decades. The ultimate terrorist had indeed shown his hand and it was not pretty. For the first time, the United States had been attacked inside her homeland, hitting a large well-known city that was just going about its usual business on a very balmy sunny day. In the days after, 9/11 would be ranked historically along with Pearl Harbor as one of two major national disasters from outside terrorist forces (Stein, 1999, 1-3). Up until 9/11, Americans had commonly envisioned terrorism as that event which happened overseas in Europe, such as in Ireland (Ferguson and Potter, 2008), Germany and in parts of the Middle East. With the rise of the Islam nation and its infiltration into many countries around the world, Muslim extremists are seen as the main perpetrators of acts of terrorism on a global basis. It has also become increasingly difficult to identify which groups are doing which acts unless they identify themselves through some broadcast as being responsible for specific acts of terrorism (Ackerman and Bale, 2002). Acts of terrorism are seen as extreme violent events, intended to get everyone’s attention and to promote fear in the populace. In fact, one can equate terrorists to the bullies from school who have grown up and taken things to the next level, both socially and in the types of actions done on a more global environment. Along with the psychological fear these events can produce is the realization that terrorists have no feelings about the loss of life occurring from these events. People dying do not matter and therein, lies the premise behind terror attacks (Ackerman and Bale, 2002) The next part describes the different types of WMD utilized by terrorists, including descriptions of types of terrorists and their mindsets, the basis of why they do what they do. Nuclear Weapons The hydrogen bomb, also referred to as a thermonuclear bomb, is considered a weapon of last resort as it will wipe out a significant portion of the population and land structures within the specified ranges of its impact. In 1990, there were roughly 50,000 nuclear warheads in place globally and each of the two major powers, U.S.A and the Soviet Union (now Russia), had 10,000 which could be deployed within minutes or hours as protection against any major attacks. With the Cold War over, at least visibly, and after the U.S. and Russia signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 1987, members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Warsaw Treaty Organization began a process of limiting the amount of nuclear warheads available along with procedures for verifying those reductions (United Nations, 1991, p.7). However, there was still the problem of working with countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East that had a high historically-based chance of entering into conflicts and to limit opportunities for any of these countries to resort to use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction. In today’s world of 2012, the possibilities of North Korea and Iran completing the development of nuclear capabilities and potential weapons is a great concern to the global community especially when there is obvious subterfuge about what the capabilities really are (Gladstone & Hauser, 2012, web). With today’s technological advances for detecting a sudden missile attack, the bomb or other types of missiles let loose on a country, are most likely to be shot down before reaching its target. The reality is that countries could get into a stalemate if using missiles and air bombs by the very fact that they will be annihilated before reaching the target. Therefore, the nuclear bomb and other types of missiles are not currently considered the most effective weapon of mass destruction, unless they can get through. It should also be pointed out that it is hard to hide construction of launch pads and other stationary areas that have abilities to raise launch pads from underground. However, smaller weapons, easily concealed and carefully transported, could become a major problem, especially in areas where regimes have been overthrown and military components lost in the shuffle of those who knew where they were. In 2002, the Commonwealth of Independent States was viewed as potentially having some of this left-over weaponry (Beshidze, 2002, p.3). Chemical and Biological Weapons The use of chemical and biological weapons (CBW) is outlawed by the Geneva Protocol of 1925 in terms of actual use, and the Biological Weapons Convention of 1972, which addresses the actual creation, stockpiling and transporting of any such weapons. However, this method of attack is also favored by terrorists and past dictatorships because it is far less expensive to create and move around in pre-distribution formats. Chemical weapons can be distributed as gases, through liquid formats or sprays and directly affect the human nerve system and blood circulation systems such as in the case of the Sarin chemical attack that occurred in Tokyo in 1995, killing 12 and injuring 5,000. It was only by a fluke malfunction of one component of the delivery system that more were not killed and injured. Biological weapons can be injected into foods and liquids for both animals and humans and can be rather insidious until such a time as the agent manifests through severe illnesses and subsequent deaths. The question is whether attending medical personnel are equipped or trained to recognize what they are looking at. In rural areas, this is highly unlikely unless it becomes a mass situation, enough so that state and national overseeing entities sit up and take notice of a mass trending occurrence (Beshidze, 2002, p.6). Looking at another side of this are the chemicals stored by different businesses that can be accessed by theft because these chemicals are stored in warehouses and are not monitored properly. In such cases, the theft could go unnoticed for some time before inventory is recounted and the numbers come up short. Radioactive materials have disappeared from storage areas over the last few years which give rise to great concern as they can be used in terrorist attacks on facilities such as government buildings and also hidden on trains which are derailed. Derailing a train can have very hazardous results, especially if in a large city which would be hard to evacuate quickly. Highly populated cities like New York City and Washington, D.C. could become immobilized if a chemical attack through train derailment were to occur (Levi, Nelson and Yassef, 2002). Anyone living near a nuclear reactor facility also faces danger should anything go wrong at the plant. Climate conditions such as high winds could spread contamination much further than under ordinary circumstances and in the case of being close to a large city, could also cause a large number of long term onset of cancer in nearby residents. Here is a map of current reactor sites in the United States as of 2010 (Levi, Nelson and Yassef, 2002). Fig. 1 (http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/map-power-reactors.html 2010) As noted in the map above, there is a predomination of nuclear sites in the North Eastern coastal states, including Washington, D.C., which could present a problem to millions of residents should one or several be compromised in an attack. Washington, D.C., as a potential center of one of these attacks, would bring significant devastation to the nation because all the country’s affairs are conducted there. While government workers might potentially be able to move out to neighboring states, the computer infrastructure in Washington might run for a time, but would need some kind of physical presence there to actually update and maintain the systems. Otherwise, everything would go down. In one respect, working through a cloud environment might help but it becomes subject to interception or even hacking by terrorist groups who are technically savvy (Levi, Nelson and Yassef, 2002). Sandy, as a natural disaster, showed how a large city could be attacked, putting millions at risk and without available resources for survival living, even when the city knew the disaster was coming. Mind of the Terrorist Terrorism has always been present since the earliest days of human history recordings, including in the Christian Bible which tells in the Old Testament of pestilences brought to Egypt by Godly powers or in what Jesus in the New Testament says in Luke 21:10, 11, that describes the latter days as the coming of great earthquakes, famines, pestilences (locust and other infestations) and signs from the heavens. These events, while attributed to God then, are more easily understood today as Earthly natural events. There is also mention of nations rising against nations and kingdoms against kingdoms. Many of these things have already happened in today’s world but the terrorism is specific to nations and people who assist in the transfer of arms through various countries, only to have them show up in an attack on a nation such as what is occurring today between Gaza/Hamas and Israel. Which leaves us with the question of why terrorists do what they do? Dimensions of Terrorism Today’s terrorists tend to work in groups whether in a religious affiliation or within a political party guideline. In some cases, the two types will mesh together in pursuit of a common goal, such as taking down a whole country through direct attacks, or through a more insidious method of infiltration. Victoroff (2005) showed in his research paper that Schultz (1980) proposed seven variables of the terrorist dimensions. The table is shown below. Fig. 2 (Victoroff, 2005, p. 5) Religious Affiliations Religious fanatics are some of the most dangerous terrorists out there. The reason is the indoctrination process is based on a religious view that if they do something in the name of their god, they will achieve martyrdom and great gifts and stature in the hereafter. Whether that is true is scientifically unproven and no one has come back to talk about it. Yet the belief is strong enough that terrorists will strap bombs on themselves, go out in public, and at the right moment, blow themselves up and those around them. Imagine the damage that could be done if a whole army of these people went into a country’s capital and at a predetermined moment, they all blew themselves up at strategically placed spots in the city. Indeed, the city’s infrastructure of medical resources and police would be overwhelmed, perhaps beyond the capability of defending the city should an attack occur shortly after those bombings. One bombing can create quite a bit of damage. If expanded to 20 or 30 occurring at the same time, this would create quite a local, even national devastation (Attah & Gambrell, 10/28/2012, web). The Political Ideologist In American politics as an example, there are two major groups: the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. The government itself is constructed around the country’s constitution and each department of the government has a set of rules to operate within the government infrastructure. Most politicians will know many of the players in all these departments, just as those in other foreign countries do, and can figure out how to get things done without a lot of red tape. Why they do what they do can be attributed to financial gain, political mandate, or some other objective. It is the “some other objective” that can be a problem if someone, or a group of people, are in place for other reasons than serving the people of that country. It is a well-known fact that there are more spies in the United States than even during the years of the Cold War (CBS/60 Minutes, 2012, web). Those who actually get into sensitive-information positions are able to conduct activities that can harm and even bring down a whole country, aside from the government itself. It would simply be a matter of having a number of unconnected people doing certain operations that, in its actual function, is perfectly legal and acceptable, yet when these actions come together in final composition, cause financial ruin or bring down a political opponent. Yet, the underlying action steps would never be discovered as the reason for the downfall unless someone was clever enough to collect suspicious pieces and put them together (Earley, 1998). Baking the Cake In briefly looking at several components that can make up a strategic plan towards use of a WMD, using operatives is the crucial point for construction of the plan, providing delivery services, and in conducting the actual event. In order to protect the project, there may be two to three main people who are in every part of the plan. Then operatives can be hired to do certain things without knowing what it is they are carrying or what it might be for and even know who else is involved. Keeping a level of secrecy ensures keeping the ‘cake recipe’ clean and free from elements that could make it fall flat. Part II: Creating the Plot This plot for the use of WMD is actually in several parts. There are the actual WMDs as we traditionally know them such as bombs and other armaments. There is also the use of chemical and biological warfare included into this picture which will be added towards the end. This represents what could happen if a combination of attacks took place at the same appointed time across the United States, including Washington, D.C. Setting the Scenario: Dooms Day in the United States The United States is a big country and therefore, any attacks would need to happen across the country simultaneously to have a maximum effect and also cripple the government. The objective would be to cripple the country’s resources and its governing powers because of the massive effect it would make on the economy, medical and law enforcement resources, and the ability to continue functioning as normally done within the government infrastructure. By Bomb There would need to be a central group that has figured out a way to communicate without bringing suspicion upon itself. The main group would then create cell groups that move out across the country to perform assigned tasks. In some cases, such as blowing up a nuclear plant, the site is very secure for obvious reasons, yet someone could be hired in to work in the plant site and thus gain access eventually to an important part of the building in order to plant a bomb at the right time. If cells find someone who works in these plants who can bring in an outsider to work there, then this solves half the problem. The other way is to take out guards and then have figured out the way to get inside. An alternative is to again, find someone who works there, compromise and threaten them in some way, and get them to take the terrorists inside where they can set the bombs. In some situations, this could become a suicide bombing. Multiply this through all the nuclear plants across the country and you have one component of massive warfare in the making (Kortepeter and Parker, 1999). By Train The next part is through derailing trains as they pass through a city, particularly one which is heavily populated. It is fairly hard to derail a train and when it does happen, one suspects that tracks were tampered with in such a way as to not be seen as damaged when track inspectors make their rounds. This could be as subtle as removing stabilizing pins from the tracks before getting ready to have a train derail. To optimize the situation, this can be done when a train is carrying volatile chemicals and liquids and then a bomb could be added to the mix, creating a very toxic atmosphere for miles around. Alternatively, an improvised explosive device (IUE) could be buried under a track section and a chemical bomb set on the train to go off when it hits the track bomb. Biological weapons could also be used in these circumstances although train tracks are usually further away from residential areas except in New York City, Chicago and the Dallas-Fort Worth area in Texas. Prime locations would have to be planned out to maximize the effects of the train derailment in the most beneficial spots (Kortepeter and Parker, 1999). Chicago, for example, is the major train hub for all trains going from the West coast to the East coast and blowing up the hub would bring all major train service to a stop nationwide. This would most definitely affect the economy as many companies transport their products using freight train service. By Viral Attack Around the same time, or shortly before the big event of train derailments and nuclear reactors being set off simultaneously, viruses could be added into the water systems of cities at the point where the water has been cleaned and is on the way to residents in the city. This would have to be done in large cities such as New York, Washington, D.C., San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, Dallas, Chicago and other big cities (Kortepeter and Parker, 1999). Using the Threat of Attack In a last step, small nuclear bombs made from components filtered from stocks across the United States over time, could be set in strategic spots across the country and be used to blackmail the government after the first two levels of attack have occurred, thus causing a nationwide state of emergency. Once resources in aid and military are stressed to their highest levels in trying to deal with chemicals and viruses, the terrorists could communicate to the government that bombs are in place, setting off one in a major but least important city, to show they are serious. Without adequate resources at hand to send out looking for bombs, the government may have to acquiesce to the terrorists’ demands (Ferguson and Potter, 2008). The Cake is Baked While this type of plan could work very well, it would take time and communication between spread-out groups across the nation to find out the progress of each component of the plan. The setting of the timing for a mass attack would also have to take into effect that there are four time zones in the United States mainland and that the timing would have to happen when people are up and about doing their daily business so as to maximize attention and in some cases, casualties as well. An example attack time could be at 3 p.m. Eastern time on the East coast which would translate to 11 a.m. on the West coast (Ferguson and Potter, 2008) As an example, the Comanche peak Nuclear Power Plant in Granbury, Hood County, Texas, is a potential target for terrorists, even though it is about 50 miles from the Dallas-Fort Worth area, a major hub of three cities which also includes Arlington in between the two big cities. If it were attacked and was compromised, the effects of nuclear residue would make its way north to the three large cities and cause major problems in that area. The Joint Reserve Army base is in Fort Worth and is a major military hub for planes and military movement. Most personnel would have to be flown out immediately and the base shut down to minimize loss of life and military functions. While people in Granbury would have the worst effects from nuclear fallout, those in the Dallas-Fort Worth area (DFW) may also be affected because of high winds which frequently occur in this somewhat flat landscape. In this capacity, it would not affect the U.S. government but it would be a serious warning to the government to follow terrorist demands to avoid other bombs being detonated (Ferguson and Potter, 2008). Conclusion The drawback for these groups to conduct such a large operation is the number of cells involved, any one of which could be uncovered by the local law enforcement and Federal Bureau of Investigation. When one is uncovered, the others may soon follow. Therefore, communications would have to be kept to a minimum to promote success. Status updates could be provided in code with messages left at various pickup sites rather than by electronic means. There are many creative methods of communications which could also be by just posting certain agreed-upon pictures at certain times. While the United States now maintains a high degree of security, there are still many ways to bypass these protocols using some creative thinking. It’s just a matter of planning everything thoroughly before implementing the project and what to do if the plan has to be changed. References and Resources Ackerman, Gary A. and Jeffrey M. Bale, “Al-Qa’ida and Weapons of Mass Destruction,” Outside Publications, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, CNS, (2002). Available at http://cns.miis.edu/other/alqwmd.htm Adams, James, Sellout: Aldrich Ames and the Corruption of the CIA. New York: Viking, (1995) Attah, Eid & Jon Gambrell, “Nigeria: Muslim commits mass murder with jihad/martyrdom suicide bomb at Catholic Church,” Jihad Watch Online, (10/28/2012), Available at http://www.jihadwatch.org/2012/10/nigeria-muslim-commits-mass-murder-with-jihadmartyrdom-suicide-bomb-at-catholic-church.html Beshidze, Revaz, “Weapons of Mass Destruction and International Terrorism,” Final Report, NATO, (2002), Downloaded from http://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/99-01/Beshidze.pdf CBS/60 Minutes, “More spies in U.S. than ever, says ex-CIA officer,” 60 Minutes/CBS Online, (5/10/2012), Available at http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57431837/more-spies-in-u.s-than-ever-says-ex-cia-officer/ Earley, Pete, “Confessions of a Spy: The Real Story of Aldrich Ames,” New York: Berkley Trade (1998) FBI, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Frequently Asked Questions, The Federal Bureau of Investigation Online, (2012), http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/investigate/terrorism/wmd/wmd_faqs Ferguson, Charles D. and William C. Potter, “Improvised Nuclear Devices and Nuclear Terrorism,” Center for Nonproliferation Studies, The Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, No. 2 (2008). Available at http://www.un.org/disarmament/education/wmdcommission/files/No2.pdf Gladstone, Rick & Christine Hauser, “Iran’s Top Atomic Official Says Nation Issued False Nuclear Data to Fool Spies,” New York Times Online/Middle East, (9/20/2012), Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/world/middleeast/iran-atomic-official-says-it-gave-false-nuclear-information-to-fool-spies.html?_r=0 Klein, Aaron, “Obama Backing Islamic Groups Behind Libya, Egypt Attacks?,” WND Politics Online, (09/12/2012), Available online at http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/obama-backed-attackers-of-u-s-missions-in-libya-egypt/ Kortepeter, Mark G. and Gerald W. Parker, “Potential Biological Weapons Threats,” Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 5, No. 4 (1999). Available at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627749/pdf/10458957.pdf (Kortepeter and Parker, 1999). Levi, Michael, Robert Nelson and Jaime Yassef, “Dirty Bombs: Response to a Threat,” Public Interest Report, Journal of the Federation of American Scientists, Vol. 55, No.2, (2002). Available at http://www.fas.org/faspir/2002/v55n2/dirtybomb.htm Luft, Gal, “The Palestinian H-Bomb: Terror’s Winning Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, July/August, Vol. 81, No. 4 (2002), Available at http://www.idia.net/foreignaffairs/SC6.pdf Mowatt-Larssen, Rolf, “Al Qaeda Weapons of Mass Destruction Threat: Hype or Reality? A Timeline of Terrorists’ Efforts to Acquire WMD,” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Online, (2010), Available at http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/al-qaeda-wmd-threat.pdf Schultz, R. “Conceptualizing Political Terrorism – A Typology,” In International Terrorism: Current Research and Future Directions, Buckley, A.D. and D.D. Olson (eds.), 9-15, (1980), Wayne, N.J.: Avery Publishings Stern, Jessica, The Ultimate Terrorists, Harvard University Press, (1999). United Nations, “Nuclear Weapons: A Comprehensive Study,” Department for Disarmament Affairs, Report of the Secretary-General, United Nations Publication, A/45/373, (1991), Available at http://www.un.org/disarmament/HomePage/ODAPublications/DisarmamentStudySeries/PDF/SS-21.pdf Victoroff, Jeff, “The Mind of the Terrorist: A Review and Critique of Psychological Approaches,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.49, No.1, (February 2005), pp.3-42, DOI: 10.1177/0022002704272040, Available at http://www.psci.unt.edu/jbooks/terrorbib_files/psychology%20of%20terrorism/victoroff-the%20mind%20of%20the%20terrorist.pdf Wilson, Terrance M., Linda Logan-Henfrey, Richard Weller, and Barry Kellman, “Agroterrorism, Biological Crimes, and Biological Warfare Targeting Animal Agriculture,” Emerging Diseases of Animals, Chapter 3. Brown, C. and C. Bolin (eds.), ASM Press (2000). http://web.sls.hw.ac.uk/teaching/level4../mic1_1/04-05/agroterrorism.pdf Read More