The China Threat and US Security - Research Paper Example

How the joint missile defense (MD) between US and Japan affects the security relations with China and how does it relate to the validity of the so-called China Threat to US security Introduction The US-Japan cooperation in the research and development of missile interceptor has created warning signals and verbal attacks from the Chinese government. Though the cooperation of US and Japan is to safeguard the latter from North Korea’s missile attacks, the liberalized policy of Japan on arms export has also emerged as a disturbing factor to China due to the stronger military hold of United States in the region. The Chinese anguish on United States has further worsened due to the latter’s continued support and supply of military equipment to Taiwan despite China conveying it anti-missile sentiments from time to time. Proposition The China threat to United States has emerged as a result of the United States military support and cooperation to Taiwan and Japan. This sends a message of a stronger military coalition in the region that pose a threat to China, therefore giving room for the development and deployment of a stronger force by the communist republic of China combined with provocative and warning sentiments on the issue (Gertz, 2002, p.8) Hypothesis The China Threat to US security is evolved from the actions of the United States further to the initial 1999 attack of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and other military build up along the Chinese border in cooperation with Japan (Gertz, 2002, p.1). The anti-monopolarity campaign of the Chinese against the US The China Threat to US Security is substantial due to the various public statements and report in China that openly oppose the mono-polarity and hegemony of the US in terms of military and economy. Hence China has declared a limited war in the case of a military invasion from the US to support Taiwan (Gertz, 2002, p.9). China has called for its people to follow the thought of Deng Xiapong and Mao Zedong while moving forward to achieve the goals of China. The Chinese government requires its people to follow the values of social modernization and socialist reform to open up new horizons of prosperity and development. The Chinese leadership appeals to its people to work towards economic globalization and political multi-polarity at the turn of the century. The word multi-polarity is intended to overcome the mono-polarity of the United States and its position as a superpower of the world. The unfriendliness of China towards the US is further clear from the various reports and statements published in the Chinese media (Gertz 2002 p.10). Military Actions of the United States against China The China threat was instigated by the US bombings on the Chinese embassy in Belgrade that was mistaken for a military arms purchase facility of Yugoslavia. The bombings were followed by the request of Chinese civilian intelligence agency to collect the pieces of missile from the site of the bombed embassy. This was reported in a communication of the Defense intelligence Agency (DIA) (Gertz 2002 p.1). China was quick to respond to the attacks because highly secured communication area of the office incurred the worst damage due to the bombings. In addition to that, the Chinese believed that the attack was intentional to provoke China to involve in a military crisis. The Chinese media was also instructed not to report the bombings as an accident instead to target US investors, citizen and the government. This revealed how the communist Chinese leadership was exploiting the government managed media to instill public wrath on America, considered by the Chinese as a hegemonic nation. This action of China was followed by the riots of the public wherein James Sasser, the US ambassador was locked up by the rioting crowds and the consulate office was stoned. The Chinese government condemned the bombings by releasing a statement that the action of NATO violates the sovereignty of China and that it is a deliberate trampling of the Vienna Convention that defines Diplomatic relations and norms that control international relations. The statement further commented that the NATO will be accountable for all outcomes of the attack and that the Chinese government has the right to decide further actions. But the US media did not give attention to the virtual threat from the comments of the Chinese government (Gertz 2002 p.2). Chinese retaliation on US aggression through provocative statements and reports The words, further actions, clearly meant that China would definitely give an answer to the embassy bombings. The Pentagon had to envisage retaliation from China for the errant action of the American defense. There were several options for China to hit back at the United States, like offering Yugoslav with diplomatic support or provoke a nuclear battle against US. Therefore, the United States offered a temporary solution with the President’s public apology on the issue. Thus there was no apparent detection of army movement or training to launch long range missiles from. However, the actions of China were unpredictable due to its aggressive and secretive intelligence aspects. The American intelligence has more details to unfold regarding the nuclear ambitions of China. In 1997, the information collected by an intelligence collecting jet the RC-135 of the US Air Force stands testimony to this. The aircraft fitted with spying instruments flew adjacent to the coastline of China and gathered precious intelligence from its flight since the Chinese interceptors did not divert the aircraft. The information was then provided to the Pentagon where analysts filtered the intelligence from unwanted military details (Gertz 2002 p.3). The intelligence contained information about North Korea’s maiden anti-ship cruise missile and the launch of modern spy satellite by Russia. The most vital information in the intelligence was however the meeting of super note distributor, Sean Garland with the Chinese Bureau Director General, Cao Xiaobing. Besides dealing in counterfeit currency of the US especially the supernote, Garland was a part of Ireland’s Workers Party and has a profile of having relations with communists in Soviet Union for gearing up funds to be utilized for socialistic purposes in Ireland (Gertz 2002 p.4). Therefore the meeting between Garland and Cao in 1997 reveals the involvement of communist China in offering aid to international communists for those with criminal records also. This was unpleasant news for the Clinton – Gore government and the findings by the intelligence was dismissed as unconfirmed. This was due to the diplomatic relations of the Clinton administration with China and the continued joint ventures of corporations (Gertz 2002 p.5) Even Pentagon officials have downplayed any threat from China. The military of a nation assesses threat from another nation by the nation’s capabilities and power, the arms systems and its hardware. The statements made by communist leaders therefore are treated as just intentions by the intelligence analysts. The intentions can change and is usually not assessed as a threat (Gertz 2002 p.6). The pro China stand of the Clinton Gore government has posed a disaster for the security of the United States. The pro China stand was taken due to permission given by China to used its borders to spy the nuclear strategies of Moscow. The pro China policy alleviated trade restrictions that resulted in the increase of China’s military capabilities with the transfer of crucial high technology. Though technical know how was transferred by the US, the Clinton administration was optimistic about the military progress of China (Gertz 2002 p.7). The increased risk of China Threat The threat from China for US security is clearly evident from the 1997 report of Chinese government disclosed to the Hong Kong press that informs about the possibility of war between the United States and China over Taiwan. The report reads that Taiwan will become a major issue by 2010 since Macao and Hong Kong is already returned to China. The report signifies the role of United States and the possible involvement of China in a war to stop the aggression of America. China is prepared and aware of the strategies the United States will use in the war. There is a mention of resources, maritime space and islands and the possible coalition with Japan. China itself has mentioned that it is the leading political rival of United States at the change of the century. China is conscious about the systematic preparations required to deal with the attacks and invasive war that might be propelled by the United States in any circumstances (Gertz 2002 p.8). The hostility of China towards the United States is found from the articles in the communist party owned newspaper the People’s Daily. For example, an article dated June 22, 1999 points out that the Nazi Germany and the United States are precisely the same due to their ambition to be a hegemonic nation and its self centeredness. As per the article, the United States involves in mass killing on the same measure as the Nazis. This article was published a month and half past the Chinese embassy bombing in Belgrade. The article also notes that the use of modern technology to kill innocent people is in no way less than a barbaric conduct (Gertz 2002 p.9). US-Japanese joint missile deal The United States and Japan have signed an agreement to enhance their joint involvement in using the ballistic missile for defense purposes. The decision was made after Japan amended its defense agenda to liberalize the self imposed limitation on military operations that comprised a ban on arms export. The agreement between the United States and Japan is to jointly research a design for next generation missile. The joint activity was planned soon after a missile was flown over Japan by North Korea in 1998. The decision is also instigated by the Japanese government by finding China as a security threat in future. The concerned authorities from the US and Japan remarked that the joint effort is for a noble cause and that the agreement is due to the need of the hour. Besides signing the agreement for joint research on missiles, Japan has also increased its spending on missile defense process by implementing new projects that will be operational by 2011. The joint effort of the US and Japan is to meet the rising security concerns from North Korea that has missile which could hit Japan any time and the military build up of China. However arms control analysts fear that the cooperation of the new nations to build defensive system may enhance the nations like North Korea and Japan to strengthen their military capacities (Japan, US sign defence pact 2004). The joint research of the United States and Japan achieved a new milestone after the MSDF (Maritime Self-Defense Force) of Japan successfully tested its first missile interceptor. This also indicated that Prime Minister Fakuda also strongly supports Ballistic Missile Defense like the former Prime Minister Abe. The Article 9 of the Japanese constitution was revised to enable Japan to involve with the US extensively in upgrading its military self defense during the Abe tenure. Fakuda has been active in missile defense and has passed a bill to allow the MSDF to proceed with the refueling mission as a part of its Anti Terrorism Special Law which forms a part of its participation in the Afghan war in association with the US and allies. Though Fakuda is promoting its missile ambitions through the BMD, the policy faces stiff opposition within the country due to the high expenditure and the fact that it will spoil its relations with China. The Chinese relation with Japan had worsened during the Koizumi regime. The relations however improved during the tenure of Abe as the prime minister of Japan. Chinese displeasure over the US-Japanese joint missile deal The joint missile defense of Japan with the US has again created suspicion in China about the implementation of BMD in the region. The main concern of China is the strength of US Japan coalition that may be utilized to save Taiwan in case a war arises between Taipei and Beijing. China responded to the missile defense test in a mild way and deliberated that the military action of Japan will be useful to the stability and peace of the region and would reinstate trust among the nations in the region. The test was conducted at a time when China and Japan was trying to improve their relations (Toki 2008). Missile Defense & North East Asia In addition to the joint missile defense program with Japan, the United States is engaged in developing advanced TMD (Theatre Missile Defense) and it is organizing to produce missiles around the world. Another disturbing event for China is the cooperation between Japan and the United States to develop advanced TMD. From a technical perspective NMD and TMD are strongly connected. Certain TMD systems have the capacity to intercept missiles. If such systems are used in North East Asia, it may convert the place into a US NMD base. The use of advanced TMD will increase the probabilities of US involvement in regional issues. This is an alarming situation since the NATO and the US was not reluctant in using military in international issues. Further the joint production of missile by Japan and United States will increase the pace with which Japan is pursuing its military ambitions. Japan ranks second in the world for the allocation of budget for defense purposes. Japanese defense is already strong with a powerful and strong air, maritime and ground forces. The amended Defense Cooperation Policy between the US and Japan signed in 1997 indicates the expansion of American defense to other nations in the region. The strengthening of Japan’s military capacity in association with the United States will increase the anxiousness and alertness of nations that were once prey to the Japanese military attacks. It may be noted that the Japanese US cooperation for missile development will not solve the missile and nuclear issue with Korea. The only solution to solve the crisis is through dialogue and cooperation. The joint cooperation of Japan and US will only increase the hostility between relevant nations in the region which is now in a relaxed situation. The joint development of TMD is not in the interest of any other Asian country. The joint development of missile also indicates an increase in the production of high technology missile. This is a clear violation of MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) advocated by the United States. United States policy to sell advanced technology arms and equipment to Taiwan and China’s response to the issue Another concern of China is the United States transfer of TMD systems to Taiwan. Sale of American weapons to Taiwan is a crucial and sensitive case in Sino-US relations. An August 1982 joint communication indicates that US would not serve arms to Taiwan in the long run in terms of quantity and quality and it indicated that the sale of weapons would be reduced considering the diplomatic relations of United States and China. This commitment has not been honored by the US, instead has continued to supply weapons under various excuses. The latest being the sale of PAC –III instruments to Taiwan and other proposals to sell military equipment to that country. These initiatives have raised grave concerns in the Chinese government. The sale of TMD system like PAC – III Aegies and other missile systems for early warning support will dramatically increase Taiwan’s offensive and defensive capacity. With this, Taiwan can directly create a threat on the security of air space over Chinese mainland and Taiwan Straits. On acquiring such military strength the separatists in Taiwan can strongly agitate against the reunification of the country with China by increasing tension in the Taiwan Straits. China has stated that it will not go to war with Chinese people and that the nation is looking forward for a peaceful reunification. China considers reunification as a domestic issue and of supreme national interest. The sale of TMD by the US thus provokes Chinese anger. China has clearly informed that the transfer of missile technology will worsen its relations with Taiwan and nations involved in the technology sale that will further affect security and peace in North East Asia. Chinese opposition to US missile programs The argument of China over anti-missile and missile technologies are closely linked to the allegation that America is hypocritical in selling TMD to Taiwan while putting forward disagreement in the sale of missile technology by China to Pakistan and Iran. Chinese officials also pointed out that if American can break the law there will be numerous followers to ignore rules and engage in the collaboration of missile technology with third world countries. China Threat The concerns of China regarding the US Taiwan cooperation on TMD has resulted in a missile race in the Taiwan Strait. As a measure of precaution, China has started to position more missile in provinces located opposite Taiwan to thwart any unprecedented attack. This was supported by a report in the Financial Times on February 10, 1999 that China has decided to increase missile deployment in southern provinces which was around 30-50 during the period 1995-96 to more than 650 in the future. A leaked DIA report also indicated that China was building two modern missile bases near Taiwan toward the end of the year 1999. The modern bases were located at a distance of 220 and 135 miles from at Yongan and Xianyou respectively. The total number of missiles number 97 with 16 truck launch missiles. This step was not taken seriously by the United States and it commented that this is not a new or sudden strategy of China to increase its missile across the Taiwanese border. The response of United States for the concern of China is however mere accusations. The US accuses China for causing trouble to the stability and peace in the region by flinging missiles on Taiwan in 1996. Though China is held responsible for thwarting peace in the region, China is not apprehensive about its stand because it considers Taiwan issue as an internal affair that requires no outsider to solve the issue. The Chinese claim that their missile deployment is not relevant to the United States and that it should stop rending military support and sales to Taiwan. China has communicated the displeasure over the joint missile defense of Japan and the United states under the disguise of threat from North Korea. China points out that the two countries had not entered into a joint research when the threat from North Korea was high during the cold war. The opposition of China towards missile defense programs has turned more serious in the recent past since the United States have stepped up national missile defense program and has broadened the Theater missile defense (TMD) in cooperation with Taiwan and Japan. The reason for Chinese opposition has historical as well as practical reasons regarding the threat of nuclear blackmail from super powers like the United States and its alliance in the region. This has deteriorated the Sino – US relations. The Chine opposition towards missile defense programs are based on three main issues: 1. TMD supply to Taiwan will increase its confidence to gain independence and form a stronger alliance in the region 2. The transfer of TMD technologies to Japan will increase the vulnerability for Japan to design and use offensive missile program and the possibility of arms race in the continent and 3. The NMD will underestimate the reliability and efficiency of China’s nuclear deterrent and contemporary missile program. Experts in China opine the policy of Japan initially will be to research missile defense and will subsequent build offensive missiles. A stronger Japan with both defensive and offensive capacities will make it more aggressive and would pose a greater threat to China. China is aware of the Japanese techniques of sneak warfare. Hence, it is apprehensive about all sorts of military cooperation with the United States (China's Opposition to US Missile Defense Programs). Consequences of China threat The United States have labeled China threat due to the rapid economic development of China and the improving sophisticated diplomacy in addition to the modernization of militarism which indicate an active and expanding role of China in Asia and other parts of the world. The transition of China from an isolated nation to a worldwide economy has been vast and the shy role of military is turning to be a professional defense force with advanced technological excellence. China is also actively participating in multilateral institutions like WTO and UNSC. The growth of China in all spheres gives it access to several options in utilizing its military, economy and diplomacy to increase its national interests worldwide. The increase in power and influence is combined with increase in responsibility and the high probability for a conflict of interest with America and other nations (McNair 2006). China has emerged as a powerful nation in terms of economy and military though it negotiates high level strategies of arms control. The Chinese leadership continuously informs its people through reports that the United States cannot be accepted as the sole power of the world. China is not in a mood to follow and abide by the principles of the United States since it gives weightage to Chinese extreme nationalism and communist theories. If the United States try to suppress China though economic or military it will result in a dramatic negative impact on the Sino – US relations similar to the 1996 missile crisis. Therefore the policy of United States to suppress China entails the likelihood of a war just like the Cold war with the earlier Soviet Union. A literal war was avoided between the Soviet Union and United States due to the balance of power, but it will not be the case if the United States heightened pressures on China. (Pan 2004 p.16) Conclusion It may be concluded that the China Threat to the United States Security is instigated by the latter’s military actions and cooperation in North East Asia. Though certain authorities play down the fact that there is a military threat from China, various incidents involving the US defense indicate that a war with China cannot be ruled out. The threat from China has to be considered as a serious factor because of the economic progress, military build up and the diplomatic relations it has with various international organizations, communist nations and other countries around the world. The repeated accusation from the United States by listing China among the rogue states will turn into military action if the military alliance of America exceeds tolerable limits in the region. Since China has developed economically and in the areas of advanced military technologies, it is not in a position to remain submissive to the plans of United States which itself have ignored various rules that control the use and sale of arms like missiles. Therefore any kind of military action by the United States or any provocation of the sorts will result in a strong military retaliation from China. This has been made clear by the Chinese leadership in various statements after every action of the United States. Therefore the Joint missile defense initiative by the United States and Japan which has already come under serious criticism from China definitely adds to the souring Sino – US relations and substantiates the so called China Threat to US security. Reference China's Opposition to US Missile Defense Programs Available: http://www.nti.org/db/china/mdpos.htm. Accessed on February 12, 2009 Gertz, B. 2002. The China Threat: How the People's Republic Targets America Washington, D.C.: Regnery Publishing Japan, US sign defence pact December 17, 2004 Available: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4104301.stm. Accessed on February 12, 2009 McNair, L.J. June 20, 2006. China's Global Activism: Implications for U.S. Security Interests Available: http://www.ndu.edu/inss/symposia/pacific2006/china.htm. Accessed on February 12, 2009 Pan, C. July 2004. The "China threat" in American self-imagination: the discursive construction of other as power politics Available: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb3225/is_3_29/ai_n29128788/pg_16?tag=content;col1. Accessed on February 12, 2009 Toki, M. February 2008 China’s Response Available: http://www.wmdinsights.com/I22/I22_EA5_JapanAcceleratesBMD.htm. Accessed on February 12, 2009 Zukang, S. 2000. US Missile Defence Plans: China's View Disarmament Diplomacy Iss.No. 43 Available: http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd43/43usnmd.htm. 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