Florida's 18 Congressional District - Case Study Example

Floridas 18 congressional district Florida’s 18 congressional district – overview, political demographics – candi s, campaign dynamics in Florida congressional district 18 has specific political characteristics – like all other US regions. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen represents the specific area in Congress (GovTrack US, 2010). The geographic characteristics of the specific district should be described – they are considered as related with the political trends in the specific region. Florida’s congressional district 18 ‘contains most of the city of Miami - stretching from Calle Ocho to West Miami and Westchester - parts of Miami Beach and some of the wealthiest parts of the city such as Coral Gables, Cocoplum and Key Biscayne’ (Rose Institute of State and Local Government, 2010). In order to understand the political preferences of this region’s citizens it is necessary to refer to the general and the political demographics of this district. Florida is a region with an estimated population of 17,019,068 people. A percentage of 22.8% of its population is under 18 years old while female persons have been estimated to a percentage of 51.2% (Fortreport, 2010). Another important demographic characteristic of this region is that most of citizens are white (78%); it would be also necessary to refer to the high level of ownership (about 70%) and the rather low percentage of persons (12.5%) that live at a below poverty level (Fortreport, 2010). The most recent demographics on Florida congressional district 18 refer to the year 2000 – published by the US Census Bureau. Florida congressional district 18 has a population of about 640 thousands people. About half of its citizens are female persons; white people have been estimated to a percentage of 83.9% - higher than the average level of the Florida region as presented above; the ownership level in this district has been estimated to 47.9% - which can be characterized as rather low if taking into consideration the relevant demographics of Florida region. It should be noted that the percentage of the district’s foreign born population is rather high – estimated to 54%; on the other hand, individuals that live at a below poverty level are about 19% - a high percentage compared to the 12.5% percentage of people of similar status across Florida (US Census Bureau, Fast Facts for Congress, 2010). Traditionally, the region supports the Republicans; the district’s current incumbent, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, belongs to Republicans; however, there are also different political trends mostly representing the views of specific communities, especially the Hispanics. In 2008 the candidates of Republicans – Ros-Lehtinen – and Democrats – Annette Taddeo – ran too close; Ros – Lehtinen managed to win gathering the 58% of votes. In 2010 the political campaigns in Florida congressional district 18 are characterized by the following events/ facts: a) further increase of the power of democrats, b) efforts of current incumbent to keep her popularity among voters – the high level of funds raised by Ros-Lehtinen for the support of her campaign this year increases the chances for the success of the specific target, c) dangers have appeared for Democrats probably under the pressure of the global financial crisis – it is also possible that the public’s opposition to specific political choices of Democrats will lead to the limitation of their power in next elections – an issue highlighted by Ben Naylor in a report published by The Cook Political Report in 25 March 2010; the congressional district 18 of Florida is also expected to be affected by the above trends. However, despite the above indications, it seems that the prospects for Democrats in the specific district are still positive; these prospects can be identified through the issues highlighted in a report published by the Center of Politics (2008); in accordance with the above report the following points are considered as advantage of the Democrats – compared to the Republicans: ‘a) For the first time in at least two decades, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has dramatically out-raised the National Republican Congressional Committee and b) a dozen vacant GOP seats are clearly vulnerable’ (Center for Politics, 2008, Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball). 2. Florida’s 18 congressional district – demographic makeup of the constituency, percentages of registered party identification The demographic and geographic characteristics of Florida congressional district 18 have been analytically presented above; these characteristics may be used in order to explain the demographic makeup of constituency in the specific region. Constituency in Florida congressional district 18 can be divided into the following parts – using the data related with the performance of political parties in recent elections: a percentage of 57.87% of the population supports the republicans – this was the percentage of votes given to Ros-Lehtinen in the House Elections of 2008 (see the relevant report published in CQ Politics, 2008); a percentage of 42.13% supported the Democrat candidate, Annette Taddeo; a differentiation seems to exist at this point regarding the preferences of the constituency in relation to the country’s leader: in the Presidential Elections of 2008 a percentage of 51% supported the Democrats - voting Barack Obama – while Republicans gathered the 49% of the region’s votes. The above contradiction – in voters’ preferences regarding the country’s president and the region’s incumbent – declare a preference to a specific person. If taking into consideration the fact that the presidency of the country is an extremely severe criterion for identifying the constituency’s actual preferences it could be assumed that the region supports the Democrats – however, this assumption would be an opposition with the traditional superiority of Republicans in the specific district. In this context, it could be noted that the win of Ros-Lehtinen represents the actual political position of constituency in Florida congressional district 18; the percentage of votes raised by Barack Obama in the specific region only indicates the voters’ preference to the specific person as of the country’s presidency. 3. History of elections in Florida’s 18 congressional district The history of elections in Florida congressional district 18 proves that the political trends in the specific region are likely to be kept stable; no major changes can be identified. The specific trends have led to the area’s reputation as a region supportive to the Republicans. However, the fact that the percentage of Democrats is being increased each time – see figures below – needs to be taken into consideration. In the general elections of 2002 the percentages of candidates were as follows: a) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 69.1%, b) Ray Chote (D) 28.6% and c) Orin Opperman (I) 2.3% (CQ Politics, Member Profile) – in the presidency election of 2000 republicans had raised a percentage of 56% - George Bush – compared to the 42% of democrats – represented by Al Gore. In the general elections of 2004 there were only two parties represented: the Republicans – by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen – and the Democrats – by Sam Sheldon; Republicans were supported by the 64.7% of the constituency while Democrats managed to reach a percentage of 35.3%. In the elections for the country’s presidency Republicans won again raising a percentage of 54% - George Bush – compared to the 45% of Democrats – John Kerry. In the general elections of 2006 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen won with a percentage of 62.1% - the candidate of Democrats, David Patlak raised the 37.8% of votes. In the general elections of 2008, Ileana Lehtinen managed to keep her superiority – as analyzed below; however, the power of the Democrats was further increased – a fact also proved by the percentage of the constituency supported the candidate of Democrats for the country’s presidency in 2008 – in the 2008 presidential elections Barack Obama raised the 51% of the district’s votes (CQ Politics, 2010). 3a. 2008 general elections in Florida’s 18 congressional district – current incumbent The region’s incumbent –Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - is Republican and was ‘first elected in a special election in 1989’ (Rose Institute of State and Local Government, 2010); It should be noted that Ileana Ros-Lehtinen had been a member of the ‘Florida state house of representatives for the period 1982-1986’ (The US Congress Votes Database, 2010); she was first elected as an incumbent in the specific district in 1989 in order ‘to fill the vacancy caused by the death of United States Representative Claude D. Pepper’ (The US Congress Votes Database, 2010). In 2008 Ros-Lehtinen managed to take a percentage of 57.9% of the district’s votes; the candidate of Democrats, Annette Taddeo, came too close to win (she raised the 42.1% of the votes, CQ Politics, 2010) but Ros-Lehtinen managed to keep her position; for this year, the funds raised by Ros-Lehtinen have been estimated to $700,000 (Rose Institute of State and Local Government, 2010) – a fact that gives her an advantage towards their rivals – referring mostly to the Democrats. The continuous increase of the power of Democrats in the specific district – as reflected in the figures presented above – should be taken into consideration by Ros-Lehtinen when preparing her campaign for this year’s elections. It should be noted that in a recent race rating published in The Cook Political Report, the preference of voters in the specific district seem to remain stable: the constituency in this district is characterized as solid Republican (The Cook Political Report, Race Ratings, Florida, 2010). 4. Business - environmental conditions in Florida’s 18 congressional district The business conditions in Florida congressional district 18 can be identified by referring to the financial and workforce characteristics of the particular region. In accordance with a series of statistics published in CQ Politics – relevant demographics are available for the year 2000 – the average household income in Florida is estimated at the $32,298 which can be considered as satisfactory reflecting the buying power of people in the above region. On the other hand, the percentage of white-collar workers has been estimated to 60.1%, which again is important indicating that the financial and business development of the specific district is high. In a recent report published in Orlando Sentinel it is made clear that Florida has adversely affected by current recession; but still there are sectors, like the healthcare and the technology sector that continue to grow. Moreover, it is noted that ‘Floridas business climate ranked fourth among executives and sixth overall on Site Selection magazines 2008 Top State Business Climate rankings’ (Orlando Sentinel, 2010). At the next level, in a report published in the website of Florida’s governor it is made clear that the specific region expects a growth of about 3% for the fiscal year 2010-2011 (Florida Governor, 2010). Apart from the positive business prospects, Florida seems to have environmental conditions that support the development of various business initiatives. Furthermore, the local authorities have made efforts so that the energy used in various business activities to be allocated through special projects and energy-saving schemes (Environment Florida, 2010). Campaigns are also continuously developed ensuring the people across the region are adequately informed on the value of environment and the importance of energy-saving initiatives towards the limitation of the environmental disasters. 5. Important issues in the particular district - Needs of next elections in Florida’s 18 congressional district In accordance with the themes presented above, the following issues are of particular importance for the district’s governors – referring to all levels of political power in the specific district: a) the stabilization of the local economy, b) the further development of the business activities across the district, c) the improvement of the level of living for those that live above the level of poverty, d) the protection of the environment and e) the support of parts of the population that are more likely to be negatively affected by current recession, for example women that cannot work, the children and the elderly. Towards this direction, candidates in next elections in Florida congressional district 18 should include a series of specific projects/ suggestions in their campaign: a) schemes that would include financial support for those parts of the population that cannot cover their basic needs, b) projects that promote innovation in business – also schemes for attracting investments, c) development of alternative educational schemes – helping people to face competition in the workplace and d) schemes that would help to the limitation of costs in various governmental projects across the district – i.e. improvement and increase of the control over the development of projects that are funding by the state. Works Cited CQ Politics (2008) Florida 18th congressional district, [internet], available at http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5 CQ Politics (2010) Florida 18th congressional district, member profile, [internet], available at http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000000119 Environment Florida (2010), [internet], available at http://www.environmentflorida.org/ Florida Governor (2010) The People’s Budget, [internet], available at http://www.thepeoplesbudget.state.fl.us/ GovTrack (2010) Florida 18th congressional district, [internet], available at http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=FL&district=18 Orlando Sentinel (2010) The upside of Florida real estate: 15 market positives, [internet], available at http://www.orlandosentinel.com/classified/realestate/foreclosure/orl-foreclosures-upside-realestate-story,0,7584976.story Rose Institute of State and Local Government (2010) Redistricting in Florida, [internet], available at http://rosereport.org/20100221/redistricting-in-florida-part-five/ The Cook Political Report, 2010, [internet], available at http://www.cookpolitical.com/ The Cook Political Report, 2010, Race Ratings – Florida, [internet], available at http://www.cookpolitical.com/house?toState=FL The US Congress Votes Database, 2010, Members of Congress, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, [internet], available at http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/r000435/ University of Virginia, Center for Politics (2010) www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball US Census Bureau (2010) Fast Facts for Congress, [internet], available at http://fastfacts.census.gov/servlet/CWSFacts?_event=ChangeGeoContext&geo_id=50000US1218&_geoContext=01000US%7C04000US12%7C50000US1216&_street=&_county=&_cd=50000US1218&_cityTown=&_state=04000US12&_zip=&_lang=en&_sse=on&ActiveGeoDiv=&_useEV=&pctxt=fph&pgsl=500&_content Read More