The Geopolitics of Iran - Assignment Example

ASSIGNMENT Geography of Iran: Iran is located in South West Asia and borders the Gulf of Oman, Persian Gulf, and Caspian Sea. Iran is the 17th largest country in world with an area almost around 1,684,000 square kilometers. That means that its territory is larger than the combined territories of France, Germany, Holland, Belgium, Spain and Portugal. It is the 16th most populous country in the world with over 66 million people. Unequivocally, one of the most important advantages to Iran is its mountains which form its frontiers, enfold its cities and make foreign intrusion extremely difficult. Quite realistically, these mountains have made Iran a fortress. Among the most important mountains of Iran are the “Zagros”. They are a southern extension of the Caucasus, running about 900 miles from the northwestern border of Iran, which adjoins Turkey and Armenia, southeast toward Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran shares its northern borders along with three post-Soviet states such as Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Irans western borders are with Turkey in the north and Iraq in the south. To the east lie Afghanistan on the north and Pakistan on the south. (stratfor.com) Raw Materials: Iran has 3rd largest Oil reserves in the world after Saudia Arabia and Iraq. In fact, Oil remains Iran’s most important and most strategic export. Other important raw materials (after petroleum resources) include natural gas, coal, zinc, sulphur, lead, manganese, chromium, iron ore, copper, barite, salt, alumunium, gypsum, molybdenum, strontium, silica, uranium, and gold etc. In addition, several industries are also indulged in production of chemicals and pharmacutical raw materials that are exported to various nations across the world. Demography: The population of Iran is over 66 millions (est. 2009) and its official language is Persian. Almost 68% (est. 2008) of Iranian Population lives in urban areas. According to different estimates, the major ethnic groups and minorities in Iran include the Persians (51%), Azeris (24%), Gilaki and Mazandarani (8%), Kurds (7%), Arabs (3%), Balochi (2%), Lurs (2%), Turkmen people (2%), and others (1 %).However, this must be kept in mind that there are no official statistics on ethnicity numbers or percentages in Iran. Over 90% Iranians are literate while the literacy rate for its younger population is nearly 100%. 98% of Iran’s population comprises of Muslims (Shiites 89%, Sunnis 9%) while the other 2% includes Jewish, Christian, Zoroastrian and Bahais. Economy: Though some would claim that Iran has a Capitalist or a free-market economy yet the best explanation about Iranian economy is that it is a combination of a centrally planned economy in which all natural resources and other important assets such as large industries, producing products of large benefit, are in public ownership. However, there is a bid private sector involved in agriculture and small market-based ventures. Iranian economy is highly dominated by its Oil and Natural Gas exports that together account for almost 60-70% of its export revenue. Different manufacturing industries include energy, gas, petrochemicals and petroleum, handicraft, automobiles, defense, construction and real estate, mines and metals. On the other hand, the services sector comprises of tourism, banking, finance, insurance, telecommunications, information technology and transport. Iran has strong trade relationships with several countries such as Russia, France, Italy, China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Pakistan, Syria, Venezuela, South Africa, India and Cuba. Politics: Iran’s has a republic political system which is a result of Islamic Revolution 1979. This political structure can be best understood by splitting this system in two main elements such as Iranian government and other political forces. The first section is about Iranian government which is liable to work according to Islamic values and Iranian Constitution. Secondly, there are political entities, which help the formation of the complete political structure. More importantly, both categories are supervised and directed by a supreme leader who enjoys ultimate authority in Iranian decisions. Presently, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini is Iran’s supreme leader. Iran has been the focus of great-power policies during the entire course of modern history due to its geopolitical prominence. The importance of Iran in today’s modern world can not be overlooked because of its geographical, economic, political and military background. It has a significant share in world’s oil trade, has an Islamic government and a powerful and well-organized military force than most of the Muslim countries except Pakistan. However, its dangerous move to acquire Nuclear power and assets has become a headache for civilized world which endeavours to impede any such attempts towards horizontal nuclear proliferation. In addition, Iran has also been accused of supporting groups working to destabilize governments in various countries in the region. Iran is censured for providing hidden moral, physical and military support to a Islamist extremist movement “Hizbollah” in lebanon as well as for its unannounced support to “Hamas” in Palestine. In the wake current situation, the world seeks to find an immediate and permanent solution to minimize potential nuclear threats from Iran. The current crisis began in August 2002, when an Iranian exile opposition group, the National Council of Resistance (Mujahedin-e Khalq), accused Tehran of hiding a uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz and a heavy-water plant at Arak. There existence was confirmed by satellite photographs. Iran then announced that its nuclear program had peaceful aims. In November 2003, Iran suspended its nuclear program and announced it would allow stricter IAEA inspections. The IAEA concluded that there was no evidence of the program, but the United States insists that Iran ultimately aims to produce nuclear weapons, particuarily as the country possesses enormous fossil-fuel reserves and does not need nuclear energy in the short and medium term. (Özcan, N., and Özdamar 123) It is evident that Irans near-term intention is to move as close to a nuclear-weapons capability as the nonproliferation regime allows, which is considerable. It is stockpiling enriched uranium, using centrifuge technology that may have come from the notorious A.Q. Khan network. Furthermore, it is also constructing a heavywater reactor that could be used for the production of plutonium. Irans recent tests of various missiles (range of 600-1,200) miles showed that it is pursuing space technology that could also be the basis for a nuclearweapons delivery system. (Weiss 79-80) It must be highlighted that Iran is desperately inclined to establish a proper nuclear arsenal. It has been working hard towards ehnancing nuclear program (through both fair and false means) as well as strengthening its missile program by development and experimentation of new missiles and by may-be purchase agreements from foreign suppliers. I would like to support this point by recalling “Arctic Sea Incident” which itself has become an enigma. A vessel namely “Arctic Sea” (Finnish vessel but owned by Russians), taking what the public was told to be a cargo of timber to Algeria, was hijacked in coast of France but Israeli intelligence officials challenged this story and stated that the Arctic Sea pulled into port at Kalingrad for repairs and while there, it was loaded with Russia’s most advanced anti-aircraft weapon, S-300 missiles. According to the Mossad, while monitoring arms shipments to Iran, it discovered that former Russian military officials connected to the Russian underground sold the weapons to Iran. This incident not only raised questions over Iran’s involvemnet in hidden missile agreements but also created suspicions towards Russia’s role regarding Iran’s nuclear program. This incident was perhaps the main resaon behind the secret trip of the Israeli prime minister, “Binyamin Netanyahu”, to Russia primarily in an attempt to persuade the Russians not to sell S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. Officials in Moscow and Jerusalem initially denied media reports that Netanyahu flew by private jet to Russia to discourage the Kremlin from giving the Iranians Russias advanced S-300 system but they later corroborated these reports. This encounter of Netanyahu also ignited the speculations about the mysterious Arctic Sea, and in fact confirmed that there was definitely something behind the curtains about that incident. Undoubtedly, China and Russia were among the front-line supporters of Iran’s Nuclear initiative. Especially Russia which has been heavily involved in the construction of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. Both nations endorsed Iran’s claim of having a peaceful nuclear program and its persistence over producing atomic power to fulfill its domestic needs instead of developing a nuclear arsenal. Iran remains firm over its policy that it no longer has any inclination or willingness for developing, maintaining and sustaining a nuclear arsenal. Iran also condemned the “notoriety” (in its language) of western media and international policy makers for placing accusations over Iran regarding its nuclear program. However, both Russians and Chinese (initially strong supporters of Iran), which previously hindered any efforts or attempts of civilized world to slap sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program have now slowed down their support by agreeing that they would not thwart any move of imposing sanctions against Iran and that they are against the spread of nuclear weapons in world for security purposes. Both countries have agreed to participate in any efforts that would help in countering horizontal proliferation. This recent consensus among civilized nations over Iran’s nuclear program should be viewed as an accomplishment. Considering the current scenario in Middle East region, it is worthwhile to mention that Israel suspects Iran is building nuclear weapons. Iran denies that, but its president has often said Israel should be “wiped off the map”. It must be recalled that Israel also has an established nuclear program since 1960s and nuclear warheads which are perceived as an open menace, by regional countries, to their security. However, the world is of the view that Iran’s becoming of a nuclear power state would not only disturb the political climate of Middle East but also compel other nations such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Egypt etc to initiate work on nuclear programs in the name of higher national interest. In latest Geneva conference, held at Durban, President Ahmadinejad gave remarks about Jews regarding their migration to “establish a totally racist government in occupied Palestine” further aggravated the relationship between the two countries. Moreover, president’s open criticism on Security Council for its “support and free hand (to continue their crimes)” to Israel and on USA for initiating wars against ‘Iraq and Afghanistan” was viewed as an offense by the civilized world. This gave a clear message to entire world about Iran’s foreign policy and thus derived a greater need for resolving Iran’s nuclear issue in order to escape from prevailing world crises. Israeli officials, who are closely monitoring this situation, have repeatedly expressed their readiness to attack Iran by saying that Israel can not take any risks of allowing Iran to continue its controversial nuclear program and develop nuclear weapons. For instance, it wont hesitate to attack Iran’s nuclear sites when its vital security interests are at stake. Israel has already proved this in the past when it bombed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981. The likelihood of a completely successful attack by Israel that destroys all of Irans nuclear fuel-making facilities is low. Their facilities are dispersed and some are deeply underground. This is in contrast to the state of the nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria when Israel attacked them in 1981 and 2007, respectively. In addition, Iran has beefed up its antiair- craft capability and is seeking to purchase Russian S-300 surface- to-air missiles, which would be effective against Israels current air force. A reasonably successful attack would delay but not destroy Irans ability to make nuclear weapons, would cause Iran to redouble its efforts in that direction, and would likely produce a degree of public anger that would translate into stronger support for its clerical government. (Weiss 82) The two major things that contribute greatly to world crises are War and Inflation. There are several factors that could lead to war such as border disputes between nations, foreign intervention, infiltration and others. The historical ways to avoid war include negotiations, third-party mediation, arbitration, pressure tactics, imposition of sanctions and back-channel diplomacy. On the other hand, we can not escape inflation rather we can devise strategies to reduce its effects. Usually strict financial control by Federal Banks through changes in discount rates, controlling demand and supply of money, investments in profitable assets and in sources of income are often used to curb inflation. In conclusion, we have two opposite alternatives on Iran’s nuclear issue. The first is related to supply of nuclear feul to Iran so that it could operate its nuclear reactors. Recently, IAEA has undertaken to supply nuclear feul to Iran for its Tehran nuclear reactor that produces isotopes for medical use (Tehran Times). Supplying nuclear feul to Iran, after a consensus so that it could operate its nuclear reactors, will not only reduce tensions and a state of dissatisfacion among non-nuclear regional states but also minimise the chances of war. Furthermore, this rational solution would be extremely helpful in controlling horizontal nuclear proliferation because Iran now would not need to enrich its own Uranium in its nuclear reactors. Six international powers which include Russia, USA, China, Britain, France and Italy are devoted to reach a consenus with Iran to accept nuclear feul supply proposal in order to avert potential nuclear threats. On the contrary, Israel which doesnot believe the Iranian claim of having a peaceful atomic program, could attack Iran to destroy its nuclear enrichment facilities, so that it could minimise the possibilty of Iranian bomb based on high-enriched uranium. Unlike Iraq’s case, Israel might fail to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear sites because they are widely dispersed and underground. However, it must be kept in mind that any military attack would produce severe Iranian retaliation only against Israel but also against American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan if American support for the attack is given or suspected. (Weiss 82-83) Iran could therefore provide military help to extremist movements such as Hamas in Palestine, Hizbollah in Lebanon, Al-Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan and Kurds in Iraq in its war against Israel and probably USA which remains a key supporter of Israel. Without any doubt, this would lead to a regional war with possible outcomes of mass destruction, upheaval and catastrophie. On the top of this, some may think that such a war would be a suitable response to the global crises because this would increase the demand of conventional weapons, mostly produced by developed western countries, and thus providing them an opportunity to regain their economic strength, which is hard-hitten by global economic meltdown, recession and financial crunch. Works Cited n.a. “The Geopolitics of Iran: Holding the Center of a Mountain Fortress”. stratfor.com. July 14, 2008. Weiss, L. "Israels Future and Irans Nuclear Program." Middle East Policy 16.3 (2009): 79-88. Research Library, ProQuest. n.a. “The MV Arctic Sea, Russia, the Mossad and a Warning We Must Heed”. politics247.wordpress.com. September 8, 2009. Hammond, Jeremy. “Full Text of President Ahmadinejad’s Remarks at U.N. Conference on Racism”. foreournignpolicyjal.com. April 21, 2009. Charbonneau, Louis. “China, Russia wouldnt block new Iran sanctions – EU”. thestar.com. September 23, 2009 n.a. “Iran’s Political Structure”. iran-embassy-oslo.no Özcan, N., and Z. Özdamar. "Iran’s Nuclear Program And The Future of U.S.-IRANIAN Relations."  Middle East Policy 16.1 (2009): 121-133. Research Library, ProQuest. n.a. “Israel admits Binyamin Netanyahus secret trip to Moscow”. timesonline.co.uk. September 11, 2009 Porter, G. "The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmod Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran." Rev. of: title of work reviewed in Italics, clarifying information. Middle East Policy 16.3 (2009): 165-167. Research Library, ProQuest. n.a. “Iran-Economic System”. Bookrags.com. n.d. Read More