Forthcoming Enlargement of European Union - Essay Example

EU FORTHCOMING ENLARGEMENT AND ITS EFFECTS ON MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES (GREECE, ITALY, SPAIN AND PORTUGAL) 2005 EU FORTHCOMING ENLARGEMENT AND ITS EFFECTS ON MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES (GREECE, ITALY, SPAIN AND PORTUGAL) Introduction Within this decade European Union will undergo at least two major enlargements. On May 1, 2004 fifteen member states of EU have already welcomed ten new European members. On January1, 2007 the Romania, Bulgaria and probably Croatia (the timeline for the later may be 2009) will join the European Union. Besides, the 2010th may be a timeline for further enlargement as Ukraine, Turkey and former Yugoslavia republics (Serbia and Montenegro, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina) are also standing in queue (Archick, 2005). Historically, each stage if EU enlargement used to cause the "displacement of powers" on the continent. As the experience of enlargements demonstrates what was beneficial for one members put the others in front of challenges. As 2007 will obviously be the time for Black-sea basin countries to join the Union, their joining will have the profound effects on Mediterranean basin as a whole, particularly on Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal that are already EU members (Dauderstdt, 2003). The Mediterranean region has always been one of the most specific and vulnerable areas on the planet (Lannon and Maresceau, 2001). Being the cradle of world civilization, Mediterranean countries, particularly Middle East and Northern African states (East and South Mediterranean), have also been the homes for world's major problems associated with terrorism, migration, drug and human trafficking and crimes. Also these countries are out of this research analysis, their factor need to be included while assessing specificity of the region and effects EU forthcoming enlargement may have on the EU-Mediterranean members. Additionally, the Balkan states also sharing Mediterranean basin and remaining one of the most problematic "hot spots" in Europe can not be underestimated (Aydin, 2004). With concern of the role of Mediterranean basin in the global politics EU has a specific program for the region (The EU's Mediterranean & Middle East Policy, 2005) In this project I will evaluate the EU enlargement-associated effects on the existing member states located in the Mediterranean basin, i.e.: Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal. I will provide the all-round analysis of effects of EU enlargement on existing member-states which includes political, socio-economic, and other angles. General effects on EU enlargement on current Mediterranean member-states The challenge of Eastern European states preparing to join the EU for current members is historic not only because it will enlarge the boarders of the Union but primarily because it will align two different types of cultures. Historically Europe has never been homogeneous; the most common understanding implies coexistence of at least two different "Europes", i.e.: Western and Eastern Europe (Dauderstdt, 2003). The watershed between "two Europes" is historical, cultural, economical, political, yet, mental. Most conventionally they are contrasted as catholic and protestant vs. orthodox countries, capitalist states vs. former communist entities, and democracies vs. totalitarian states. Turkey is an exception here as its major difference from the rest of the Europe is religions and mentality-related (Lannon and Maresceau, 2001). In the recent decade the EU will be joined by a group of countries which are dramatically different from the rest of the Europe (Welfens, 2004). However hereinafter I will directly address two countries for which the integration into EU seems to be the most probable, i.e.: Romania and Bulgaria. I will indicate specially when other countries (Turkey and Croatia) will be included in research analysis Both states, as mentioned before, are located in the eastern Mediterranean (Black-sea) basin; they both are orthodox Christian states that represent the former Soviet camp. In a word, they are much different from the rest of Mediterranean states which are currently the EU members (Aydin, 2004). Prior to the analysis itself I will provide a brief historical outline of the problem. Mediterranean countries except for Italy and France are comparatively "new" members of the EU with Greece joining the Union in 1981 and Spain and Portugal in 1986. Until the 2004 enlargement these three countries were the least developed and poorest regions in the EU, often called Europe's "step-sisters" (Archick, 2005). The effects of Romania and Bulgaria entry in Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal will be economic, political, regional and social. The overall effect will have both positive and negative dimensions (Dauderstdt, 2003). The alignment of the EU and the southern Mediterranean region (Black Sea basin) is extremely important for the Union (Prodi, 2002). In a wider context it is a continuation of Europe's traditional policy towards Balkans and Southern Europe and spread of Western Europe's influence on the territories that traditionally were under Russia's control. Hence, integration of Bulgaria and Romania will mean a new dimension in EU's foreign policy. While for Bulgaria and Romania joining the EU will be "returning to Europe" for the rest of Europe it will be spread of influence on the southern Europe (Marquina and Brauch, 2001). As the role of this region will raise in future (both countries are the gates between Europe and Middle East) it will be advantageous for the EU as a whole (Dauderstdt, 2005). Challenges of EU forthcoming enlargement for Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal The major problem of Southeast Mediterranean has always been political instability. Both accession countries are quite proximate to authoritarian Belarus, ethnically separated Georgia, conflicting Armenia and Azerbaijan, terrorist Chechnya, radical islamist Caucasus as well as historically problematic Middle East (Aydin, 2001). Through integration of Romania and Bulgaria the EU will dramatically proximate the boarders of EU to current and potential "hot spots" and hence may affect shaky stability of Southeast Mediterranean (Dauderstdt, 2003). In order to advance development of Greece, Spain and Portugal the EU government decided to develop the regional development strategies through unequal distribution of funds within the Union. This redistribution favored three member states though caused protests of the rest members (Welfens, 2004). In 2007 the EU will join two most poor and agricultural states if compared with the rest member states and EU government's new challenge will be associated with development of these territories. As historical instances demonstrate EU will obviously develop the Less Favored Area Directive as it did in 1973 after Denmark, Ireland and UK accession (Milcher, and Slay, 2005). This program will favor Bulgaria and Romania in terms of development of their mountain and rural areas, depopulated territories and other less advantageous regions. However, the other southern European countries will obviously expect certain deflux of financial support (Grassini et al., 2001). The other challenge for Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal is associated with redistribution of agriculture (Vinas, 2001). Romania and Bulgaria are traditional agricultural centers that being involved into the European common market may put at a stake growth of such agricultures as tomato (Italy and Spain), grape (Greece and Italy), corn (Spain), maize (Italy and Spain), as well as apples, plums, apricots and peaches (Pelkmans and Casey, 2003). In the other words, joining of Romania and Bulgaria will challenge the traditional agricultural centers in the Europe and mat damage local economies of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal (Pelkmans and Casey, 2003). The grave vitality of the previous issue does not seem exaggerated if one puts in the center of analysis another variable, i.e.: manpower. Romania and Bulgaria will be the poorest regions in the European family with GDP US dollars 88.150 and 28.32 billions respectively (the data are prognoses for 2006) (Welfens, 2004). Comparison of GDP in accessing and member states follows in the chart: State and its EU status GDP 2005 and 2006 (forecast) in US $ billion GDP per capita (to average Eu-25 - 100%) Romania (accession state, 2007) 79.848 88.150 30% Bulgaria (accession state, 2007) 25.96 28.32 29% Greece (member state, 1981) 215.29 225.41 79% Italy (member state, 1958) 1836.41 1908.85 107% Spain (member state, 1986) 1120.31 1189.17 95% Portugal (member state, 1986) 185.091 194.74 75%. Chart 1. GDP in accession and member states (http://www.econstats.com) As chart above clearly shows even in relatively poor Portugal and Greece GDP exceeds that of Romania and Bulgaria significantly. Per capita income in the member states is dozens times greater than in accessing countries (Rachman, 2001). If we assume average EU-25 per capita income to be 100%, the income in Romania and Bulgaria will be only 30% and 29% respectively. At the same time, per capita GDP is 79% in Greece, 107% in Italy, 95% in Spain and 75% in Portugal. It means that due to lower wages production of agriculture as well as some industries will be relocated to Bulgaria and Romania after their accession. As well as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic served the magnets for industrial companies Romania and Bulgaria will attract farming companies from southern Europe, particularly from nearby Greece and Italy. It may cause growing joblessness in these states and decrease of export (Pelkmans and Casey, 2003). Another economic challenge for these states is associated with migration. As the eastern boarders of the EU will be the western boarders of Ukraine, Moldova and Turkey, the EU will be likely to expect growing migration from Eastern Europe and Asia. Another challenge for EU Mediterranean member states are growing drug and human trafficking and terrorism (Aydin, 2004). Opportunities for Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal associated with EU forthcoming enlargement To be objective I as well need to assess the advantages of Mediterranean countries associated with accession of Romania and Bulgaria. As mentioned above, one of the major problem of Southeastern Mediterranean is political stability (Lannon and Maresceau, 2001; Prodi, 2002, Aydin, 2001, 2004). This political stability has always been the greatest concern for Mediterranean states, particularly Greece, Italy and partially Spain (Vinas, 2001). Accession of Romania and Bulgaria will catalyze contextualization of these states into the Europe's "heartland" and, hence, spread the area of welfare and political stability to the eastern boarders of Europe (Welfens, 2004). It is expected that Greece, Spain and Italy will eagerly participate in solution of regions' problems. Already now Italy and Spain are the originators of the EU Euro-Mediterranean initiatives. The first and second Euro-Mediterranean Conferences were held in Barcelona (Spain) in 1995 and Naples (Italy) in 2003 respectively. Besides, Italy has initiated the Euro-Mediterranean Foundation for Dialogue between Cultures (EU Policy in the Mediterranean, 2005). It is a unique chance for Italy that looses its influence in the EU, Spain and Greece which has never played first fiddle to become influential and effective. For Italy and Greece control over the Southeast Mediterranean (Romania and Bulgaria) also means spread of their interests' zone to Black Sea basin as a whole, including Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. At the same time it is clear that for the Old Europe Black Sea basin will be a new source of strength (Aydin, 2004). It is moreover important that on early November, 2005 the US have installed its military bases in the Black Sea region (currently in Romania). Taking into consideration the "snap" between Germany and France and the US after the Iraq crisis and Italy-US mutual understanding, Italy is as likely as never to emphasize its role in the Black Sea basin (Bordonaro, 2005). It is extremely important that Romania and Bulgaria serve the gates to the Southeast Europe, Caucasus, Middle East and Central Asia. Control over these territories will emphasize the role of the current EU Mediterranean states in the EU (Lannon and Maresceau, 2001). In terms of Greece accession of both countries is especially advantageous, as it will apparently expedite peaceful regulation of a historic conflict between Greece and Turkey. Besides, Greece is the only EU country that doesn't have the common borders with the rest of EU, leaving aside UK and Ireland. Accession of Bulgaria and Romania will ease transportation, migration and trade for Greece and rest EU states (Marquina and Brauch, 2001). Integration of Romania and Bulgaria into the European family will also give southern countries a perfect access to Middle East - world's greatest energy supplier (Prodi, 2002). It will be a primary benefit of Italy which interests in Middle East have always been deeper than those of other UE members except for the UK (Marquina and Brauch, 2001). The new gates to energy supply will evidently help Mediterranean countries and especially Italy to emphasize its role in the EU through achievement of stable, safe, uninterrupted and direct transition of oil and gas. Currently the major role in transition and distribution of energy resources in the EU belong to Germany and France. Control of energy resources due to the prospective change of European energy supply apparently means control over the EU as a whole. This idea is pivotal for the survey and needs further analysis. Traditionally, the EU is observed as a bi-central entity where France and Germany are the leading states. The role of Italy in the EU policy has always been less significant than one of EU's locomotives (Anderson and Eberhard, 2001). However, with accession of Romania and Bulgaria which by the way both have long ago been the provinces of Roman Empire, Italy will receive a prefect opportunity to spread its influence on the territories. Apparently, its presence in the region has always been more significant than the presence of Germany and France. Italy has long-established trade flows with Eastern Europe and Italy's role in Romania and Bulgaria is expected to increase. This increase will also be achieved through the spread of Italian foreign direct investments in Romania and Bulgaria (Braconier and Ekholm, 2001). Spreading its influence on the Black Sea region Italy will become a new European power. It is expected that the Southern Europe will soon play the same role in the continent as the so-called "Northern Dimension", i.e.: Germany, France, the UK, Benelux and Scandinavia. It means that for current four EU Mediterranean members integration of Romania and Bulgaria will give a great chance to amplify their role in the Union as a whole. In building the "security-community" around the Europe's Southeast boarders EU EE Mediterranean states may even attempt to outshadow traditional peacemakers on the continent, that is Germany, France and the UK. Conclusions The forthcoming 2007 enlargement of the European Union will be probably the most challenging though one of the most important for the Union. Accession of Romania and Bulgaria in 2007 and Turkey in the recent decade will provide several challenges for the old EU members, particularly EU Mediterranean states. These challenges are associated with redistribution of industry and agriculture as well as deflux of financial donations. It will as well involve relatively problematic EU Mediterranean to the growing migration, drug and human trafficking as well as will proximate Southern Europe to the zone of political instability on Caucasus and Middle East. However, there are apparently more advantageous for current EU Mediterranean members that may be associated with integration of Romania and Bulgaria and further Turkey and Ukraine. For the EU Mediterranean members joining of these states will mean unique chance to regain their influence on the continent. It is especially beneficial for Italy that is gradually losing its power under the pressure of more influential Germany, France and the UK. Italy and obviously Greece will try to be the peacemakers in the region and spread their influence on the Black Sea basin as a whole. The economic effect on the EU Mediterranean member states will also be dramatic. Romania and Bulgaria serve the gates to the world's greatest energy supply region - Middle East and Central Asia. It means that South and Southeast Europe will turn to be the major Europe's energy suppliers in the coming decade. Taking into account that Italy and Spain as well control EU's import of oil and gas from Libya, Egypt and Tunisia. Receiving a control over the import of energy resources from Middle East Italy and Spain will be the major energy suppliers of the EU surpassing the current status of Germany and France as Europe's energy providers. With concern of discussion above integration of Romania and Bulgaria in the recent perspective and Turkey and Ukraine in a remote prospect will give EU Mediterranean countries ever-greatest chance to regain their pivotal role on the continent as well as in the whole Central Eurasia. Bibliography: 1. Anderson, M., and Eberhard B. 2001. The frontiers of the European Union. Palgrave, New York. 235 p. 2. Archick, K. 2005. European Union Enlargement [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://www.usembassy.it/pdf/other/RS21344.pdf 3. Aydin, M. 2001. Sources of Insecurity and Conflict in the Caucasus and Black Sea Region. In: Turkey Insight, November, pp. 125-147 4. Aydin, M. 2004. Europe's Next Sea Shore: the Black Sea Region after EU enlargement [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://www.iss-eu.org/occasion/occ53.pdf 5. Bordonaro, R. 2005. US Military Bases in the Black Sea Region. Power and Interest News Report, November 19. 6. Braconier, H., and Ekholm, K. 2001. Foreign direct investment in central and eastern Europe: employment effects in the EU. Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, 37 p. 7. Dauderstdt, M. 2003. Enlargement and the EU's External Relations [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://fesportal.fes.de/pls/portal30/docs/FOLDER/POLITIKANALYSE/DaudSeoul.PDF 8. Dauderstdt, M. 2005. The impact of EU Enlargement on the Euro-Mediterranean partnership [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://fesportal.fes.de/pls/portal30/docs/FOLDER/POLITIKANALYSE/DaudBelfast.PDF 9. EU Policy in the Mediterranean, 2005. [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://www.esteri.it/eng/4_27_58_52.asp 10. GDP by Countries, 2005. [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://www.econstats.com 11. Grassini, M. et al., 2001. Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Economic Costs and Benefits For the EU Present Member States The Italian Case [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://europa.eu.int/comm/budget/pdf/financing/enlargement_study/def_italy.pdf 12. Lannon, E., and Maresceau, M. 2001. The EU's enlargement and Mediterranean strategies: A comparative analysis. Palgrave, Basingstoke. 416 p. 13. Marquina, A. and Brauch, H. G. 2001. The Mediterranean Space and Its Borders: Geography, Politics, Economics and Environment. UNISCI: Madrid. 14. Milcher, S. and Slay, B. 2005. The Economics of the "European Neighborhood Policy": an Initial Assessment [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://www.case.com.pl/dyn/plik--4592639.pdf 15. Pelkmans, Jacques and Casey, Jean-Pierre (2003). EU Enlargement: External Economic Implications. [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://www.coleurop.be/file/content/studyprogrammes/eco/publications/BEEPs/BEEP4.pdf 16. Prodi, R. 2002. A Wider Europe - A Proximity Policy as the key to Stability. Speech delivered to the Sixth ESCA-World Conference "Peace, Security, Stability - International Dialogue and the role of the EU". Brussels, December 5-6th 17. Rachman, G. 2001. Europe's magnetic attraction. The Economist, May 17 18. The EU's Mediterranean & Middle East Policy, 2005 [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/med_mideast/intro/ 19. Vinas, A. 2001. The enlargement of the European Union: opportunities and concerns of Spain. In: Spain: the European and international challenges. Ed. by Richard Gillespie and Richard Youngs. Frank Cass: London, 229 p. 20. Welfens, P. 2004. The German Economy and EU Eastern Enlargement [Online]. Retrieved November 24, 2005 from http://www.aicgs.org/c/euenlarge04.pdf Read More