Earth and Space Sciences: Meterology - Essay Example

xxxxxx No. xxxxx EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCES (METEROLOGY) XYZ of XYZ Department of XYZ 16 April, Table of Contents Contents Page No 1. Introduction 03 2. Joplin Tornado Synopsis 03 3. Consequences 07 4. Recommendations for Future Forecasting 08 Appendix-I: St Johns Hospital after Joplin Tornado 11 Appendix-II: Joplin High School after Joplin Tornado 12 Appendix-III: Franklin Technology Centre after Joplin Tornado 13 Appendix-IV: Home Depot in Joplin after Joplin Tornado 14 Bibliography 15 1. Introduction 21st most extensive and 18th most populous state Missouri was extremely affected by a severe tornado at Joplin graded as EF-5 on Enhanced Fujita Scale. It was actually a part of larger late-May tornado outbreak sequence and struck the Missouri on 22nd May, 2011. The Joplin Tornado is considered to be the most severe tornado in history of United States since 1953 (Storm Prediction Center, 2011) as the optimum wind velocity was about 200 mile per hour that created an enormous damage in Missouri. The death toll was 162 which topped the number of causalities produced by a tornado of 1953 in Flint, Michigan in which 115 people were died; however, death toll remained less than a tornado of 1947 in Woodland, Okalahoma, when 181 people were killed. A well advanced tornado warning was issued by the local meteorological office as well as special updated were released by National Weather Service. A great coordination between meteorological and administrative agencies enabled the general public in advance to take necessary safety measures and thus saved many lives. However, despite of taking all the measures, tornado was strengthened enough that it not only produced tremendous loss of infrastructure but also caused 162 human fatalities and moderate to severe injuries to more than 1000 people (Reuters, 14 Sep, 2011). This paper explains several aspects of Joplin Tornado which include the synopsis of the incident with the help of real-time dealing with of the event, loss of human life and damage to businesses and properties, and some statistics as well. At the end, few points are suggested for forecasters to improve their forecast related to any such occurrence in future. 2. Joplin Tornado Synopsis A tornado is defined as “a rotating column of air ranging in width from a few yards to more than a mile and whirling at destructively high speeds, usually accompanied by a funnel-shaped downward extension of a cumulonimbus cloud” (http://www.the freedictionary.com). Tornadoes appear in a number of sizes and shapes; however they are often in the style of an observable condensation funnel, as their thin end meets the ground and are oftentimes surrounded by clouds containing waste and dust particles. The majority of tornadoes possess violent winds having speed not less than 110 miles per hour, however, a lot of severe tornadoes can gain the wind velocities greater than 300 miles per hour with an extension of width well over two miles around, and remain to the earth for a great deal of about more than 100 miles in length (Edwards, 2006). The strength of a tornado is ranked by Enhanced Fujita Scale which consists of six categories depending upon the wind speed. The key statistics that Joplin tornado produced are shown in tabular form below. Maximum EF-Scale  EF- 5 Maximum Wind Speed (Estimated)  In Excess of 200 mph Path Length  22.1  Miles Path Width  3/4 to 1 Mile Fatalities  162 Injuries 1000+ Start Time  1734 PM End Time  1812 PM Approximate Beginning Pt. 1/2 mile SW of the intersection of JJ HWY  & and west 32nd street (Newton Road) Approximate Ending Pt. 4.8 mi. NNE of Granby, Missouri (Source: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_survey) Joplin, Missouri experienced one of the most deadly tornados of the history of United States on 22nd May, 2011. The first three weeks of May, 2011 were significantly quiet as only few and isolated tornados took place, however, by the combined effect of an intensified low pressure area and dry line changed the pressure pattern rapidly. The forced the cold front to move eastward. On 21st May, two thunderstorms developed at Brown County and southeastern side of Emporia city of Kansas. Thunderstorm of Brown County produced a tornado of minor nature at Topeka; however, it intensified a little more at Oskaloosa and caused a noticeable damage. The other thunderstorm system produced a tornado of rank EF-3 at Reading, Kansas and caused substantial damage. One person was killed, several got injured, and almost 20 houses were badly damaged. Both the systems created several tornados during the whole evening (Storm Prediction Center, 21st May, 2011). On 22nd May, an intensified tornado hit the Harmony, Minnesota and forced the National Weather Service to issue first tornado emergency. On the same day in late after period, an extremely intensified tornado took place at Joplin, Missouri and caused disastrous conditions. A radar image of evening of 22nd May is given below. Radar Image (22nd May, 2012): The Joplin Tornado (Source: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html) At the beginning, the tornado landed just along the eastern side of the Kansas state towards the ending of 32nd Street at 5: 34 pm and moved towards the northern side of Kansas. Initially tree damage of mild intensity was observed in the countryside areas of Joplin. But when the tornado shifted to the southwestern parts of Joplin in close proximity to Twin Hills Country Club, the loss intensity upgraded to moderate and severe. A large number of homes and buildings experienced serious damage. There were properties that got the complete loss of their roofs. However, as per Enhanced Fujita Scale, the loss associated with this area was ranked EF-2 to EF-3. Damage turned out to be a lot more extensive as soon as the tornado intersected Maiden Lane and resulted in most heavily damage to St Johns Hospital. The tornado completely broke the roof of the hospital and glass windows all around (National Weather Service, Springfield MO May 23, 2011). It became more intense since it messed up a large number of houses as well as offices towards the northern and eastern side of the hospital. Except outer wall of a side, rest all walls of a Joplin High School were demolished. A nursing school was also affected very badly. More than 100 houses were completely ruined between 20th and 32nd streets. Tornado partially destroyed the roofs of two apartments in the same locality. A commercial bank received complete destruction except its vault. Moreover, a grocery shop also obtained critical loss of its outer walls and roof. Similarly, the internal and outer walls of a Franklin Technology Centre and a bar also failed to resist against the tornado. Soon the tornado entered Rangeline Road close to 20th street and produced its most extensive disaster show (National Weather Service, Springfield MO; 23rd May, 2011). Just along the eastern side of this specific intersection point, a home depot was thoroughly shattered. Aside from that, a cemented complex, the Cummins building, and a huge steel building lost their walls and roofs. The No.59 superstore of Wal-Mart and a Home Depot also encountered considerable destruction. The tornado kept on moving towards the southern and eastern side of 20th street and created devastating conditions with huge numbers of homes and warehouses. Prior to loose its strength, the tornado persistently destroyed lot of homes close to interstate 44. The overall track of the tornado with its damage was from the south-eastern parts of Joplin to almost 3 miles of northwestern areas of diamond which is shown in the following figure. (Source: NWS Central Region Service Assessment Joplin Tornado – May 22, 2011) 3. Consequences On 23rd May, National Weather Service made an initial review of the sad incident in its office at Springfield, Missouri. This preliminary analysis verified the thrashing tornado and graded it as a high-end EF-4. Succeeding studies, nevertheless, identified the facts of much more intensive destruction, and consequently the tornado was ranked as EF-5 (CRG.noaa.gov, March, 2012). It was projected that winds were over 200 miles per hour which gusted up to 225 to 250 miles per hour. Although, the emergency manager of Joplin claimed that about 10 to 20% of the town was destroyed and a damage of about 2,000 buildings were observed, however, regional office of the American Red Cross reported that around 25% of Joplin was damaged. In later surveys, it was announced that almost 7,000 homes were either compressed or blown away while almost 850 other buildings were relentlessly damaged (Storm Prediction Center, 21st May, 2011). Telecommunication and transportation was badly affected in many counties. Electricity supply was totally failed in many parts of Missouri and almost more than 50,000 Ameren users remained without electricity. The daily Reuters writes “An estimated 20,000 homes and businesses were without power in Joplin. To help with communications Verizon Wireless, a unit of Verizon Communications Inc, said it was delivering three temporary cell towers for emergency service” (Reuters, 23 May 2011). Eqecat, a risk modeling firm claimed on 24th May that the economic loss may be close to $3 billions. The company also clarified that the estimated loss may be even more than expectations because uninsured properties were excluded in this estimated data. The tornado was the second EF-5 graded tornado of Missouri’s history and the 1st ever EF-5 tornado since 1957 when a tornado hit south of Kansas City. The event killed 162 people, which is next to highest death toll of tornado occurred on 9th April, 1947 at Woodland, Okalahoma where 181 people were directly killed by tornado. The death toll surpassed 115 casualties of 1953 tornado in Flint, Michigan and it was the first ever tornado after 1953 to have more than three figure deaths. The Joplin Tornado was the 27th deadliest tornado of world’s history, 7th deadliest of US history and 1st deadliest since the occurrence of 1947 tornado in Woodland, Okalahoma (Edwards, 2011). 4. Recommendations for Future Forecasting Tornado can develop at any place of the world at any time of the year; however, the exclusive geography of USA provides some favorable conditions to thunderstorms to turn into strong tornados. A well coordination between weather service agencies and administrative bodies will be most important to handle any emergency situation. Forecasters need to focus on some of key parameters to issue an accurate forecast and weather warning of tornados in advance while administrative bodies need to regularize its disaster management procedures event to event basis. The outcomes of Joplin Tornado lead to following few recommendations for future handling of any such occurrence. (a) Forecasters need to focus on surface heating and temperatures trends especially of last few days. (b) Water vapor content in the atmosphere is vital parameter. In order to forecast a simple thunderstorm, the amount of high relative humidity assists the forecasters but to predict a tornado activity, dew point temperature will give much better idea than relative humidity. Therefore, forecasters must emphasize on the track record of dew point temperature on day to day basis. (c) Atmospheric instability is also very much important to forecast a bad weather. The higher values of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) are a good indication of unstable atmosphere. CAPE values 2000 to 2500 jol/kg are very much supportive to issue forecast of thunderstorms. Since most of the tornados develop in conjunction with thunderstorms, therefore, forecasters must highlight the favorable areas of thunderstorms. A CAPE value of more than 2500 will be an early warning for forecasters. (d) A seasonal track of jet stream can be very much handy for forecasters as it is associated with upper level weather systems to contribute both thunderstorms and tornado activity. (e) Installation of NEXRAD Doppler Radar at tornado prone areas will certainly help the forecasters to remain vigilant, developing much better understanding, and issue in time tornado emergency warning. (f) An accelerated communication is obligatory for conveying the weather alert to general public. Online weather advisory on websites of NWS, NOAA, and usatoday.com etc is very helpful. Further, news channels, radio services, mobile sms, and some other communication technologies can be used. It will enable the people to tack safety measures on their end (National Weather Service, May 2011). Appendix-I St Johns Hospital after Joplin Tornado (Source: http://www.reporternews.com/photos/2011/may/23/84518/) Appendix-II Joplin High School after Joplin Tornado (Source: http://headysheadings.blogspot.com/2011/05/tornado-in-joplin-mo.html) Appendix-III Franklin Technology Centre after Joplin Tornado (Source: http://freedomforumdiversity.org/files/2011/06/060611_joplin08.jpg) Appendix-IV Home Depot in Joplin after Joplin Tornado (Source: http://digitaljournal.com/article/307075) Bibliography Christopher R. Church. (1993). The Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Prediction, and Hazards, Amer Geophysical Union CRG.noaa.gov. Crh.noaa.gov. . Retrieved March 12, 2012 Edwards, Roger (2006-04-04). The Online Tornado FAQ. National Weather Service. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/. Retrieved 2006-09-08 Edwards, Roger (October 25, 2011). Tornado FAQ: The 25 Deadliest U.S. Tornadoes. Storm Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved December 6, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_survey http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/23/us-usa-weather-tornadoes http://www.thefreedictionary.com National Weather Service (May, 2011). Central Region Service Assessment Joplin Tornado, Central Region Headquarters Kansas City, MO National Weather Service, Springfield MO (May 23, 2011). Public Information Statement. NOAA. Archived from the original on June 28, 2011. . Retrieved May 23, 2011 Reuters (Sep, 2011), Joplin tornado death toll rises to 162, retrieved by Storm Prediction Center. F5 and EF5 Tornadoes of the United States (1950-present), Retrieved by December 7, 2011. < http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html> Storm Prediction Center. Storm Reports for May 21, 2011. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved May 22, 2011 Read More