Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis - Article Example

Author’s name Instructors’ name Course Date Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis (Sultanate of Oman) Section A: Climate Change Analysis Introduction Climate Change (CC) is the change in the climatic condition, which is shown through various changes that take place as far as the variability of its properties is concerned. However, these changes must have persisted for an extended period, such as a decade or longer time. This means that Climate Change refers to changes over a long period. This could be because of natural variability or due to human activity (Almazroui et al. 2012). Historical Summary of the Climatic events of Sultanate of Oman The Sultanate of Oman can be described as subtropical hot desert and dry climate. It has a low annual rainfall with high temperatures mostly in summer. Further, it has big margin of minimum and maximum temperatures, mostly in the inland regions. It receives its lowest rainfall moths are between June and September (summer). In most parts daily temperatures go over 40°C (Smith 2000). However, cooler temperatures are recorded during winter with occasional rainfall. Both autumn and spring are warm, with a dry spell but pleasant. The maximum temperatures range between 25°C and 35°C with even cooler nights (KOOT 2013) A dust-laden and hot wind ‘Shamal’ is experienced during summer and spring in the months of March until August. These winds may sometimes be so strong to cause Sandstorms. Extreme rainfall may as well come with thunderstorms and cloudbursts, though at a short period during winter months. As a country that a dry part of the world, Oman has faced several climate-related disasters. This includes long droughts that affect human, animals as well as plants (Döll and Flörke 2005). However, the most common climate-related experienced in Oman is the occurrences of severe tropical cyclones. A good example of such severe cyclone was in June 2007, where the Sultanate of Oman especially in Gonu was hit. This also took place in June 2010, where Phet region was affected. It is worth noting that the most affected area by this tropical cyclone is the Wadi Uday region, which extends through most urban areas of the capital city, Muscat. The obvious result of tropical cyclone is the floods, which consequently affects many sectors of the economy such as agriculture, recreation, infrastructural facilities such as roads, electricity among others (World Bank 2006). However, statistics indicates that the most affected and categories include the residential and recreational areas, which accounting excess of greater than 30% of the total damage. The recent tropical cyclone has increased the potential impacts of climate change, which has affected the country. To some extent, cyclone has caused the loss of lives as well as substantial; damages along the coastal areas of Oman. In June 2007, the Gonu super cyclone was tracked into the Oman Sea. It was recorded as the strongest in the history of Arabian Sea, with an estimated 900mm of rain having fallen on a single day (Smith et al. 2000). In addition, the average speed of the winds was at 130 km/hr. In this cyclone, around 50- people lost their lives and an estimated damage of around $4.2 billion. In June 2010, Oman experienced another cyclone that made landfall. This was in the northeastern region of Oman with 450mm of rainfall. In this case, 24 people lost their lives and an estimated property damage of $0.8 billion. In addition, the agricultural area was as well affected by the cyclone. The damage in this sector was estimated to be above 10% of the agricultural zone at Wadi Uday region. Further, more than 7 % of the damage was in the public buildings. It means that public service provision was adversely affected. Fisheries and other related flora and fauna were affected with an estimation of more than eighty 80,000m2 of lake being affected by the floods (Wynne 2003).As a result, most of the fisheries were dislocated including increased pollution. The continued increase in climate change that is leading to warmer temperatures is expected to as well as increases the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones. The Projection of Climate Change in the Sultanate of Oman Temperature Figures show that by 2030, yearly average temperatures will be around 0.3 to 0.8 °C higher in the country (Charabi 2013). In addition, in 2070, average annual temperatures increment will be ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 °C and in 2100, it is expected to be 1.2 to 3.0 °C. Farther statistics indicates that future daily minimum and maximum increases of temperatures will be the same as the changes in the average yearly temperatures. In 2030, the worst annual average temperatures scenario will range from 0.7 to 1.3 °C higher in this nation (Charabi 2013). In 2070, annual temperatures increase in will range from 1.9 to 2.4 °C and in 2100, it is predicted to be around 2.8 to 3.7 °C(Smith 2000). Rainfall Average annual ranges projections of precipitation will decrease by 8% to 20 % in most of the areas, such as Muscat, as is the case in most of the northern part of Arab peninsula (Almazroui et al 2012). Despite the fact that there will be decrease in precipitation from 40% and 50 % in some parts of Arab region, a 10% and 30 % increase is expected in the Sultanate of Oman (Charabi 2013). Section B –Sultanate of Oman Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis and Reduction Impacts of Climate Change on Oman’s Water Resources It must be agreed that water is one of the most important components for human survival. Both humans and animals need fresh water in their lives. Therefore, climatic changes have brought many challenges in this sector in the Sultanate of Oman. The challenge of water resources has affected the driest areas such as the mountains of Al Jabar Al Akhdar, which forms the northern part of the Sultanate of Oman (Döll and Flörke 2005). The effects can as well be felt in ecosystem including ecological health. These have been larger areas of the Sultanate to be vulnerable to the climate changes. Oman is one of the water-stressed nations in the world (World Bank 2006). These countries are vulnerable to climate changes that continue to take place. These threats include the potential increase in temperatures, more erratic, rainfall as well as droughts and desertification. It is, therefore, important to carry out vulnerability assessments of these regions to climatic changes. Agriculture is on me of the main important sectors in the Oman economy (Smith et al. 2000). It forms an estimated 70% source of livelihoods for most people in this country. This sector does not however contribute much in the GDP statistics, with only 3.7% of the total Oman GDP. However, it must be noted that it is one of the sectors, which consume a lot of water this nation. One of the biggest challenges in Oman has been to maintain equilibrium between water and energy, as well as supply and demand of these commodities. The design of an effective strategy for solving this problem requires a vast knowledge of the past present and future weather a dynamics as well as other related factors. This is the only way of ensuring a plausible future outcome (Charabi et al 2013).Historically, Oman has been recorded a between 50 and 100mm of rainfall annually in the northern coast region. However, it is estimated that due to climate change, this figures could reduce up to 20 to 40mm of rainfall by 2040 (Döll and Flörke 2005). This accounts for a reduction of 40% of total annual rainfall. The expected decrease in rainfall in future in the northern region will lead to the reduction of surface water flow, water quality as well as the ground water recharge. Conversely, it must be noted that despite the climatic changes being one of the main causes of water problems in Oman, groundwater deterioration, and water availability have been cited as the main hindrances of economic development (Al-Maskari 2010). It is predicted that by 2020, Oman will be facing an absolute water scarcity. The total amount of renewable ground water (annual ground recharge quantity) is estimated to about 1.3 billion m3. In addition, the demand for water consumption is 25% more than the available ground water supply. This means that the demand is at 1.6 cm per annum. There has been forever pumping of wells in the northern parts, which have led to lowered water table, including the intrusion of the seawater into aquifers. Therefore, there is need for more proactive, measures on this front to ensure the supply and demand of water are maintained in the future, as the wrath of climate change continues (Charabi et al. 2013). Despite its high cost, desalinated water is considered to the only option that Oman is having as an alternative to the growing water scarcity. This accounts for about 16% of the total water supply in the country. The intrusion of saltwater, because of over-pumping, has led to increased salinity of ground water especially in Salalah and Al Batinah plains (Charabi et al. 2013). In addition, groundwater pollution has increased tremendously. This has been attributed to poor waste disposal especially in the Wadi area. It is estimated that over 50% of Oman population is amassed in the coastal region especially n in the capital Muscat and Al-Batina. This means that concentration of population will lead to the air quality degradation as well as the intensity of urban heat island(Al-Maskari 2010). In the context of global warming, this reflects into increased health hazard in most of the urban population, because of long stay of air contaminants and the heat waves. The increased demand on air-cooling has as well resulted into warming at a regional scale. Measures of Mitigation and Adaptation As earlier indicated, unfortunately, in the Sultanate of Oman, water stress is a great challenge for many economic sectors. This is made worse by collision of poor management practices with the decline in availability due to climate change and variability(Smith et al 2000). Therefore, if socio-economic goals are to be met, mitigation and adaptation strategies for protecting water resources in the region are required. In this regard, there are several potential adaptation alternatives to minimize the impacts of climate change on water resources, such as institutional and technical capacity, ensuring the creation of a task force or a central institution at national levels to assess, monitor and supervise climate changes and enhancing regional cooperation in mitigating climatic change (Al-Maskari 2010). However, the government, as well as other stakeholders need to ensure that there is the exchange of information and multidisciplinary coordination and linkages. This is one of the effective and fewer expensive ways of dealing with the impacts of climate change (Al-Maskari 2010). Climate change influences all socioeconomic sectors. Thus having action plan helps in a multidisciplinary approach, inter-agency communication, institutional rearrangements and information exchange. Therefore, decision makers, on a regular basis, need to have in hand the reliable data and results about various scenarios in order to give priorities for their actions (Smith 2000). This requires linkages among institutions in monitoring and rapidly responding to events by having an action plan at various decision-making levels. There is need to have partnerships with different sectors and institutions to strengthen cooperation and enhancement of mechanism of information exchange. Sharing information will ensure that the country does not become vulnerable to these impacts since mitigation measures will be taken in advance. The use of latest technological advances will help in giving early signs, which should be shared among all stakeholders. Conclusion The impacts of climate change in the Sultanate of Oman are real. There are increased temperatures and reduction of precipitation that increase the droughts occurrence. This is already observed in many parts of the country including Muscat. Additionally, there is need to have adjustments as far as Climate Change management is concerned because most of the water resources in this region are exploited for human consumption. If the above measures are taken into consideration, then the country will mitigate the climate change impacts. References Al-Maskari J (2010). How the National Forecasting Centre in Oman Dealt with Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Almazroui M, Nazrul IM, Jones PD, Athar H, Ashfaqur R M (2012) Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula:Atmospheric Research. PYale University , E. DePauw, ICARDA Charabi Y (2013). Projection of Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature Patterns in Oman. J Earth Sci. Clim Change. Charabi Y, Al-Bulooshi A, Al-Yahyai S (2013). Assessment of the impact of the meteorological meso-scale circulation on air quality in arid subtropical region. Environmental monitoring and assessment. Döll, P. and M. Flörke, 2005. Global-scale estimating of diffuses groundwater recharge. Frankfurt Hydrology paper 03. Institute of Physical Geography, Frankfurt Smith, R.B., J. Foster, N. Kouchoukos, .A. Gluhosky, R. Young, J. Zhang, 2000 Hydrologic Trends in the Middle East: Modeling and Remote Sensing PYale University , E. DePauw, ICARDA KOOT, M. (2013). A new diverse shark fauna from the Wordian (Middle Permian) Khuff Formation in the interior Haushi-Huqf area, Sultanate of Oman. Palaeontology, 56(2), 303-343. World Bank, (2006). Making the Most of Scarcity Accountability for Better Water Management in the Middle East and North Africa. Wynne, M. J. (2003). 176 New Discoveries Regarding the Benthic Marine Algal Flora of the Sultanate of Oman. Journal of Psychology, 3960-61. Read More