Japan's Dragon Triangle - Essay Example

JAPAN’S DRAGON TRIANGLE Talk about vanishing ships, sudden weather changes, ocean swells and landmasses disappearing overnight and the most likely and unanimous answer you get is - “The Bermuda Triangle”. A lot has been written and said about the famous, or rather the infamous, Bermuda Triangle and the mysterious and practically unexplainable happenings associated with it. But very few people know about the Dragon Triangle, which shares some similar and equally bizarre occurrences with its more popular counterpart. As you travel on the other side of the globe, towards the Pacific ocean off the coast of Japan, you are likely to encounter a less known, but equally mystical area of ocean, known as “The Dragon Triangle” more popularly known to the Japanese as “Ma-no Umi” which literally translates as “The Sea of the Devil”. ( source: Corwin, May2,2008) A series of unexplainable events, which are beyond the powers of us mere mortals, has led to the development of sensational theories, some of which have even found way into the folk lore of the Japanese people. According to the myth, the dragons live deep underneath the deadly sea and their movement causes the sudden churn in waves, whirlpools, dense fog and sudden storms. While yet others believe it to be the handiwork of “mikakunin hiko-buttai”, Japanese for UFOs (source: Berlitz, Charles. The Dragon’s Triangle New York,Wynwood Press, 1989) In ancient times, the unexplainable events, which were interpreted as the intervention of gods, ghosts, demons or dragons are now explained as a part of covert military or scientific experimentation or a more relevant – insurance fraud ! Belief in such mysterious, supernatural and extraterrestrial occurrences is rampant in the society even today and in the absence of proper tools to deal with them, it is likely to continue in the years to come. Various authors, scientists and researchers have attempted to solve such mythical occurrences and reason the popular theories revolving around witchcraft, haunting, demon possessions and wizardry but none, so far, have come close to actually addressing the problem. However, Theodre Schick and Lewis Vaughn, in their famous book titled “How to think about weird things”(1995), have presented an interesting formula called the SEARCH formula (source: Theodre , Schick, How to think about weird things,1995, ch.7, p 230-235, full product review), which is in fact an acronym for the four steps namely: 1. State the claim 2. Examine the Evidence for the claim. 3. Consider Alternative Hypothesis 4. Rate, according to the Criteria of adequacy, each Hypothesis If we consider the case of the Japanese Dragon Triangle, and study it in the light of the tool developed by Vaughn and Schwick, chances are we might derive some logical conclusions and help clear the myths relating to such mysteries. 1. STATE THE CLAIM Stating the claim is inevitable, as without stating any claim it would be impossible to examine its relevance and credibility. So it is absolutely necessary to state the claim clearly and specifically. Claims which are vague tend to mislead people and draw them away from the real purpose. In our case, of the dragon triangle, it is claimed that: Ships/ Sea vessels have been recorded missing in the triangle for more than 3000 years, huge unexpected waves, seaquakes, whirlpools and sudden change in climate, malfunction of navigational equipments such as compass deviation, non-function of radios and loss of control of vessels so on and so forth. 2. EXAMINE THE EVIDENCE FOR THE CLAIM All claims made cannot be accepted to be true without proper verification. It is therefore of utmost importance to verify the authenticity and credibility of such claims. This can be done by examining the factual evidence in support of such claims. The logical or empirical arguments in support of the claims, if any, should be evaluated. There should be sufficient data, in terms of both quality as well as quantity, in support of the claims made. In our present case of the dragon triangle, there are various facts that support the claim made in the previous step. For example, In 1952, a research vessel, the Kaio Maru No.5, sent by the Japanese government for investigating the mystical water, vanished without a trace, alongwith 22 crewmen and 9 scientists who were on board. (Berlitz, Charles, The Dragon Triangle, New York, Wynwood Press, 1989) For an honest and thorough appraisal, the following points must be taken into consideration: Determining the exact nature and limitations of the empirical evidence This calls for an assessment of not only the evidence but also that of any reasonable doubts associated with it. The evidence presented must be free of any doubts and irregularities, because in absence of clear evidence the findings based on it might be misleading, Determining if any of these reasons deserve to be disqualified This includes wishful thinking, faith and unfounded or undocumented intuition. Mere human intuition cannot be considered as a valid argument to prove a mythical occurrence. Deciding whether the hypothesis in question actually explains the evidence A hypothesis that leaves out important factors, won’t qualify as legitimate, and hence not worthy of being valued. 3. CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS It isn’t wise to consider only the hypothesis in question, and conclude our findings based on it. Considering alternative hypothesis further strengthens our findings and makes them more reliable, accurate and acceptable. Example, in the case of the dragon triangle, various views and explanations exist, regarding the sudden disappearance of sea vessels and sometimes even landmasses, including indulgence of supernatural powers, act of gods, demons, devils, dragons or aliens. Also the turbulence caused in the sea, which might be because of seaquakes, is believed to be caused due to movement of the sea dragon. So, although, the disappearance of sea vessels or the turbulence caused in the sea might be true the reasons or explanations supporting them do not necessarily have to be true too. It would not be fair to conclude that the sea dragons actually exist, although nobody has ever seen or claimed to have seen it with their own eyes. This step urges people to be more open to creative thinking and keep an open mind and consider alternative hypothesis rather than relying on the one merely because majority of people happen to believe it to be true. According to the authors: (Vaughn,Schwick) “Having an open mind means willing to consider any possibility and changing your view in light of good reasons” 4. RATE, ACCORDING TO THE CRITERIA OF ADEQUACY, EACH HYPOTHESIS Simply listing of the alternative hypothesis isn’t enough to distinguish which of them is more reliable and hence worthy of belief. There are other factors to be considered such as Testability This is done to determine whether the hypotheses are testable or not. Many hypotheses regarding an extraordinary phenomenon aren’t testable which doesn’t imply that they are untrue or authentic. It merely means that they are not worthy enough of being considered. Example, the strange occurrences and disappearances might be true but certainly not testable. Fruitfulness The hypothesis that provides new information and new ways to look at from a different perspective is considered more fruitful than those that fail to do so. The best hypothesis is the one that generates observable and surprising predictions about a mysterious phenomenon. According to the authors: (Vaughn and Schwick) “Most hypothesis regarding weird things don’t make observable predictions. Scope The best hypothesis should be able to explain various mysterious occurrences rather than just one. For example, a hypothesis that explains the reason behind vanishing ships being the UFOs wouldn’t be impressive unless it is supported with factual scientific evidence. Simplicity The chosen hypothesis should be the one that provides the simplest explanation to an unlikely occurrence. A simple hypothesis is the one that makes the fewest possible assumptions. For example, one hypothesis for the turbulence and whirlpools caused in the sea is due to seaquakes. Another is that it is caused due to the movement of the sea dragon. The seaquake hypothesis is the simplest in this case (as it has other attributes such as testability, ability to yield predictions and capability of explaining various phenomena) because it doesn’t require to prove the existence of a mysterious entity. Conservatism It refers to those hypotheses which are consistent with known facts. Example, although many people claim that the unnatural occurrences in the dragon triangle is the work of a sea dragon but it conflicts with the tremendous amount of human experience of never having seen any such creature as a dragon. “The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and all science. He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no longer pause to wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead: his eyes are closed.” --Albert Einstein WORKS CITED Schick T, Vaughn L, How to think about weird things, Mcgrawhill, 1995 Schick T, Vaughn L, Informal Fallacies, May 2, 2008. Available from: Berlitz, Charles. The Dragons Triangle. New York: Wynwood Press, 1989. Available from: Corwin, Japan’s Bermuda – The Dragon Triangle, May 2, 2008. Available from: http://www.hotspotsz.com/Japans_Bermuda_-_The_Dragon_Triangle_(Article-439).html Full product review, How to think about weird things: Critical Thinking for a New Age, May 2, 2008. Available from: < http://atheism.about.com/library/books/full/aafprThinkWeirdThings.htm> Read More