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6 Apr. Q Ans. Project network showing 20 general activities in order: I would most often make use of the past history to estimate the time for each activity, because the past events generate best and most practical information regarding all activities. Times consumed for typical activities in the past are factual and have taken into consideration all the matters and factors that might play a role in delaying the activities. Therefore, past history provides the most useful information for the estimation of duration of activities.
Expert opinion comes as a secondary thing. Although it is not advisable to rely solely on the expert opinion, yet it is quite rational to seek expert opinion for approval or slight adjustment of the durations estimated using past history. An estimator may solely rely upon past history to estimate the duration of activities without seeking the expert opinion, but he/she can not solely rely upon expert opinion without checking the past history for the time estimates. In rare cases, when past history is not available for a certain activity, then its time is estimated using mathematical derivation.
Mathematical derivation is the empirical and the least reliable method of estimating the time of activities, yet it has to be used in the absence of past history. Again, like a second check is made for the past history by seeking expert opinion, expert opinion should also be taken to modify the time calculated using mathematical derivation, to make it more reliable. It is better for Joe to make use of AOA method because it is simpler. Also, it gives clear information regarding FF and TF. Joe should see the level of details he requires and choose the method accordingly. Q. 2 Ans.
Issues that weigh in favor of crashing the project are that BCC will not have to face the liquidated damages as the project would be finished within time. As mentioned in the case, the client does not at all lend an extension, and is all set to impose severe penalties to BCC in case the project’s completion exceeds the date of completion originally decided. BCC has been granted a profit margin by the client. Joe has been granted $30000 to use to finish the project in time, which is a substantial sum required to make the project finish in time without having to compromise upon quality.
Joe has called upon a meeting with the site supervisors, and after a lengthy discussion, they have reached the conclusion with mutual consent that the project can be finished within time if the available sum and the energy is utilized properly. The main issue that weighs against crashing the project is that of quality. As the speed of construction goes up, quality essentially comes down. Besides, crashing the project necessarily requires the next activity to be immediately started as the preceding activity finishes, which is possible in an ideal world if everything goes as planned.
Though, many such factors as weather conditions are beyond the control of humans, and can significantly delay the project despite crashing the schedule. Had I bee the site supervisor, I would have advised Joe to crash the schedule. Before taking the decision, I would consider whether we had enough labor and material to keep the work going without breaks. If not, I would have asked Joe to immediately arrange labor and material.
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