Economical Consequences of the Afghanistan Conflict and War - Research Paper Example

RESEARCH: THE EFFECTS OF THE AFGHANISTAN CONFLICT AND WAR This paper aims at analyzing the originand consequences of war and conflicts in Afghanistan’s economy. It also analyses some macroeconomic channels operating in a war economy. The theoretical effects of war such as those on economic variables capital, technology, uncertainty and government’s fiscal deficit are discussed. The macroeconomic variables are clearly explained to determine the war’s impact on a country’s output, economic growth, consumption level and welfare and the national debt burden. The basis of the evidence drawn from Afghanistan, vividly suggests that while capital and infrastructural destructions are the most obvious costs of conflicts whether internal or external, the long-term development potential of the country’s economy is more severely damaged by increase in fiscal deficit, uncertainty and transactions inefficiency (Carlisle 2010). From this research, it is noticed that different returns to war are experienced in several parts of the country. The regions that were greatly involved in the conflicts are generally lagging behind in terms of development and consumption capabilities (Carlisle 2010). The research paper illustrates different views in the following format: Outline: 1. Introduction 2. Literature Review 3. Research Objective 4. Effects of Afghanistan war 5. Reconstruction of the country 6. Conclusion 7. Reference Introduction In order to clearly understand the economic, development and social impacts of war in Afghanistan has been in war constantly for a very long time, normally approximated to be over a decade dating back to 1978 when it involved in a great combat with the United States of America. This caused effects on their economy and it is very vital to understand the origin of the wars between the periods of 1978-1992. These wars greatly impacted negatively on their products and produce both in the local and international markets. Like any other war in any part of the world, the social lives of the people were also affected to a large extent it is believed to have commenced after the resignation of the communist president Mohamed Najibullah (Carlisle 2010). From the onset of this war and conflicts, one factor that tends to be very much evident is the negative association between conflict and economic development of the whole country. However, while conflict may lead to poor economic performance, the reverse relationship seems equally credible, and this mostly complicates the analysis of the consequences of war on a country’s development strategies and goals. An economic analysis of the effects of conflicts is discussed below to determine its effects on the economic performance of a country at the micro level years after the war has ceased. The research paper clearly tries to illustrate the underlying processes, focusing on the interaction between conflicts and how the production levels of a country returns to normalcy during the post war periods (Carlisle 2010). Literature Review Neoclassical growth model helps in explaining how fast an economy recovers from a war effects which may its economic status fall in the recession period of the growth model. However alternative scholars argue that economic recovery from a post war effects may take a long time than normal (Barro 2004). They have the notion that human capital responds slowly and so low recovery or a country may be trapped in a low equilibrium where conflict and poor performance coexist (Carlisle 2010). One possible reason that is postulated for the contradictory findings on the above depends on the type of data employed in the study of the post war effects on the country. Data such as cross country data may leave a number of factors that may have effects on the relationship between conflict and economic development of a country unnoticed. How fast an economy recovers from the effects of war may depend on the extent of the damage caused by the war on the human and capital destructions. The extent of destruction of war may also be attributed to the parties taking part in the wars; either the war is between nations or within a single nation where tribes of a country fight among themselves (Carlisle 2010). This paper tries to investigate the consequences of the way and conflicts of both human and capital destruction within a shorter time limit approximated to be around four years and then we investigate the post conflict wars which includes how fast does the economy recover from the conflict menace. The rate of economic recovery after wars can be measured by the consumption levels of communities and households that faced the conflicts years after the wars and that of other communities (Carlisle 2010). To assess the level of economic growth after the Afghanistan wars we determine whether the returns of factors of production have some dependence on the past wars. It is noted that the returns to the factors of production are prevalent and severe in the conflict intense areas. There is therefore a slow recovery in these areas. It also follows that the amount of human capital destruction is very prevalent in the intense war areas showing a clear negative disadvantage of wars and conflicts in the country. The war that erupted in Afghanistan by 1978 led to several economic and social effects and these effects eventually have general effects on the overall economic development and the country’s Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P) (Carlisle 2010). Research question What are the consequences of the Afghanistan War on their economic development? Research Objective To determine the effects of the Afghanistan war on the country’s economy and development. Problem Statement This paper will focus on the 1978-1992 period of the Afghan civil war. During these four crucial years, there were tremendous effects and challenges that happened in the Afghanistan economy and in the general welfare of the country citizens. The political system of the country became distorted and poor and cruel leadership took cause. Many deaths were realized, people were displaced from their original homes, and schools were interfered with through bombings and the fleeing away of the teachers. In the medical sector, patients remained unattended as doctors laid down their tools and fled for their lives, death therefore became inevitable. The countrys future political system became undefined and where social and communal conflicts crystallized during the war period (Carlisle 2010). Kabul in his article “State, Ethnicity and Social Classes” tries to explain the events that transpired in the country between the communist coup of 1978 and the collapse of the Kabul regime in 1992 just before the invasion of Soviet that also led to several destruction of property and loss of innocent lives. He tries to illustrate how the coup led to revolt against the ruling government and people became hostile. The Soviet invasion stimulated the revolt, led to many Afghanistan cities experiencing mutiny, there were a lot merchant strikes and college students protested claiming that their rights have been thwarted and that they have been subjected to unfair treatment (Carlisle 2010). These effects in Afghanistan are vividly and elaborately discussed below: Effects of the Afghanistan War Decline in the Business Sector During the war period, companies and firms that initially engaged in businesses no longer have conducive and safe environment to operate. Many of the business were forced to shut down due to fear of huge losses that awaited them in the vent of risks such as fire, looting, theft and destruction. The war also destroyed the international relations of Afghanistan and the other countries like United States. This lack of international co existence destroyed the international trade between the countries. This reduced the foreign exchanged earned hence limiting the amount of revenue to the government that could have been accumulated to be used for development purposes such as construction of health centers and infrastructure like roads. The war reduced the production level of industries, reducing the supply of products such as food, clothing and shelter. When the supply of goods reduced, most people who could not withstand the high prices were forced to go without food. The destruction of property left people homeless and desolate with both psychological and physical sufferings. These groups of people who cannot afford the basic needs becomes incapacitated and if the they are the working age then after the war the working group will have reduced substantially. This lowers the productivity level of human labor and hence the overall development of the country stops or slows down due to lack of active labor to work efficiently (Carlisle 2010). Poor Health Standard During the war that erupted in Afghanistan, the health care services of the country were completely destroyed with several medical practitioners fleeing the country due to insecurity that prevailed. This movement greatly interfered with the health care of the country and it became very scarce. Several deaths were therefore in evitable among numerous members of the society. Thos to attend to the war victims were also not there. The few number of doctors and nurses made the cost of medical to go up making it unbearable to the common citizens of the country. There was increased mortality rates and reduction of the working population. This affected the country’s development over the period after the wars (Carlisle 2010). Low Gross Domestic Product Besides the poor health care due to the war, the country’s economy was doing no better either. The war destroyed their infrastructure and interrupted with their normal trade business both locally and internationally. It is recoded that during the war period, the country’s GDP per capita was between $700 - $800. At this rate of per capita income,, 35% of the country’s population lived in acute, below the poverty line and during that period, there was a four year draught that severely affected agricultural production lowering the food supply further in the country (CIA World Fact book). Only 37% of the entire population carried out agriculture and the draught was a great draw- back to them, especially because many of the used subsistence family meant just for the family consumption. This therefore showed that during the draught, several families experienced a great shortage of food (Carlisle 2010). Education System The education sector of the country was greatly affected by the war that erupted in the country. Due to the fear, most teachers fled the country as most of the schools were bombed hindering most of the children to go to school. Moreover, during the cruel reign of Taliban, female education was forbidden and this created a great disparity between the genders and hatred erupted between them. It is recorded that by the year 2000, only 43.1% of males aged 25 years knew how to read and write while only 12.6% of females were literate. Statistics also showed that of the 1.2 million students admitted into schools, less than 50,000 were females. The strengthened the gap between the females and male children in the society. The data clearly shows that it is evident that most people in the country did not acquire the basic education. However, a clear and sober knowledge the problems of poor education, better health care, creation of more jobs to reduce the number of dependency and joblessness. Despite the negative effects of war in Afghanistan, it ii also recorded that the war has led to the country having attention now on better ways of improving the health standard of the people, enhancing the level of education considering gender equality and improving the governing system (Carlisle 2010). Loss of Statistics in the Economy In any economy of any country, the availability of reliable and consistent statistics is very vital for the smooth running of the economy. This is because, the presence of viable statistics forms the basis for any useful analysis most importantly it helps in the time series analysis. The economic statistics is also required for the formulation of well informed and sober policies by the policy makers. Given the war that erupted in Afghanistan which began from the coup and the Soviet invasion, the economic issues has been critical. It is noted that the war led to the loss of numerous economical data that were used to postulate the economic progress of the country. This statistical information was also used by the United Nations, World Bank, IMF, and ILO when advancing foreign and financial aids to the country in case of crisis. It is therefore important to note that the loss of the statistical information greatly affected the economy of Afghanistan and its development process (Carlisle 2010). Possible Solutions To bring the country to its original state after war is always a big challenge for the warring nation because much of the resources have to be used to reconstruct the country. In Afghanistan, the country tried to recover through the help of USA and France which helped the nation in construction of new health care facilities to improve the health standards of the people. This reduced the child mortality rates by 26% and from the records currently, nearly 85% of the nation’s children have access to better health care (Carlisle 2010). When peace resumed in the country, the trade with other countries greatly improved. This improved the country’s GDP as exports increased; mining of minerals began, creating numerous employment opportunities to the citizens. The country has also built more schools with the help of funds from the United States after several were bombed down. This has increased the availability of education to both genders in the country (Carlisle 2010). Conclusion From the above illustrations, it is very evident that the war that erupted in Afghanistan had tremendous effects on the county’s economy and general development. It led to numerous losses of lives of the working population, destruction of property, impairment of trade and many more effects. It is therefore important to note that war is never a solution of any conflict or problem but diplomacy is (Carlisle 2010). References Carlisle, R.P., & Bowman, J. S, (2010). Afghanistan War (Rev. ed.). New York, Chelsea House Read More