The Current Status and Prospects for Shale Oil - Literature review Example

WILL SHALE OIL ROCK THE WORLD? Affiliation Affiliation Address Corresponding Present/Permanent Address Phone Numbers/Fax Numbers Email Abstract Alternative energy sources are currently attracting attention today as oil prices and the volatility in the oil-producing regions threaten to derail global economic growth. For this reason, oil shale production emerges as one of the energy sector’s sunshine industries. It is expected to play an important role in satisfying the energy consumption needs in the future. This paper has identified several reasons for this and they include the depletion of global crude oil reserves; rising oil prices and technological advances. Keywords: oil shale, alternative energy, oil shale ecological impact Abbreviations: AGR: Above ground retorting bbl: barrel FOS: fuel oil shale ICP: in situ conversion process IMF: International Monetary Fund LOS: lump oil shale MIS processing: modified in situ processing MJ: megajoules OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. POS: process oil shale ROM: run-of-mine oil TIS: true in situ processing TOS: trade oil shale 1. Introduction Not a few projections have warned that high prices would derail the global economy. For instance, the recent publication of the International Monetary Funds World Economic Outlook 2012, identify the oil price as one of the downside risks that will stall the global economy this year.1 Given the volatility of the situation in the Middle East this problem is expected to remain for a long period of time. This is in addition to the fact that forecasts are projecting the decline of the golden age of oil as supply starts to run short. A report by major oil companies revealed that the growth of oil production outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will slow to a stop and that by 2015, the Middle East will monopolize that global oil demand, which is almost 1000 gallons per second.2 The experience during the 1970s of a global shortage wherein there was a lack of adequate supply and the price dramatically increased is still fresh. These are the reason why there is a mad scramble for alternative energy sources today. Being able to successfully extract oil from different energy sources would mean independence from foreign oil and the negative impact it entails. Shale oil is one of these alternative fuel sources. The changing energy outlook as with the increasing interest on shale oil is consistent with all modern-day assessments of global energy futures, which according to P. Edwards, V. Kuznetsov and W. David (2007), emphasizes the argument that growth in demand for energy must be met increasingly by a diverse energy mix.3 Change as a result of the coming shortage of oil is inevitable. This paper will provide an overview of the current status and prospects for shale oil. For this purpose a brief history will be provided as well as an explanation of shale oil as an energy resource and a discussion as to why it will play an important role in the global attempt to find alternative fuel sources. 2. The Geology of Shale Oil Oil shales are generally rocks that have high proportion of “kerogen”. This is an organic matter that is characterized by a low calorific value and high ash and mineral content.4 This definition covers a huge number of rock formations and deposits that could be found in different locations and environments. One of the interesting aspects of oil shales is its absorption and preservation characteristics. A study by M. Kennedy, D. Pevear and R. Hill revealed that the absorption of carbon compounds onto clay minerals is an important process in oil shale generation and preservation. Through various experiements in two locations in the United States, they found that the mineral organic compounds in the geologic past played an important role in black shale formation.5 The implication of this finding is that modern day sediments akin to such minerals and carbon compounds can actually lead to the formation of new shale oil deposits, contributing to the oil shale reserve in a cyclical process as energy is being consumed. Oil shales have been known to be around for at least 600 years and could be found in all inhabited continents. It has been recorded, for instance, that back in the 1300s, shale oil was popular in Europe as source of a medicinal ointment. The oil shales were pyrolized in order to produce what was called as Icthyol.6 By the time the 1800s ended, countries like Australia, Brazil, France, Scotland and the United States were able to develop and use commercial shale oil extraction processes. What the historical accounts reveal is how oil shale has existed as a fuel resource prior to the conventional petroleum, predating the latter for several centuries. There are varying estimates as to how huge the global oil shale resources are. With the figures provided in numerous studies, the range offered by K. Brendow (2003) appears to be the most appropriate, factoring in the statistics and estimates of various countries around the world. He estimated that there are about 10 trillion metric tones of oil shale that are waiting to be tapped, which could yield up to 2.9 trillion barrels and exceeding the conventional oil resources by more than 50 percent.7 Today, about 30 countries have identified significant oil shale reserve, which is lead by the USA, Russia, Brazil and China. Together, these countries account for about 90 percent of the global shale oil resource. What is interesting, however, in this regard is that countries with smaller deposits of oil shales can have economically viable oil production because even small quantities can contain huge percentage of raw material and could, in fact, satisfy the domestic needs of the country it is located. For example, there is the case of Estonia. Oil shale deposit in this country is insignificant in comparison to that of the United States or Russia. However, the country was able to successfully tap the resource so that the local oil product output was enough to cover 60 percent of Estonia’s primary energy needs and 90 percent of its electricity production.8 Table 1: Shale Oil Separation Indexes 3. Extracting Oil As opposed to the conventional petroleum, the oil from shale is not liquid and must be extracted from beds that are buried deep under the earth. The extracted organic material is also not considered to have the chemical composition of oil. Rather, the product is called “kerogen”, a raw oil that must be processed in order be usable as a fuel. This process involves the addition of hydrogen, which needs huge quantities of water. This is necessary in order to refine the material into a usable type of petroleum.9 There are also two classifications of extraction method: aboveground and in situ processing techniques. The former or commonly referred to as aboveground retorting (AGR) involves the mining of shale and heating them in retorting vessels. The true in situ (TIS) process, on the other hand, requires the blasting of oil shales using explosives, which are then retorted underground.10 Retorting is a process of decomposing the solid organic material of oil shales through pyrolysis.11 For a demonstration, see Figure 1. There are many variations of retorting methods and most of them are patented today. These methods, however, have one common characteristic – they use high temperature, which range from 400 to 600 degrees Celsius. Other methods involve mere versions of these techniques such as the modified in situ (MIS) processing. Fig. 1: Gas Combustion and Retorting Process Schematics The different types of oil shales are distinguished according to their properties. This diversity called for the development of various techniques of extraction and refinement. A commonalty, however, is the fact that these methods are mere copies of natural processes such as the melting of a part of the Earth’s crust and the way hydrocarbon is formed. Specific examples of these approaches include the lump oil shale process (LOS process), an old approach in separating high calorific (12 MJ/kg) oil shale of the class 25-125 mm while the second is a new process involving the use of a solid heat carrier that can extract oil from non-enriched materials or the run-of-mine oil shale (ROM).12 The procedures involve several approaches of usage. For example, the LOS process requires separation plants right in the shale oil mines. Materials are then separated into two types, the small grain oil shale and the coarse material. The former is usually shipped to power plants to be used as fuel oil shale (FOS) while the latter goes to the separation plant as feed.13 All in all there are two fundamental ways to use oil shales. The first involves a simple combustion technique - burn it as fuel in itself. The second involves the more sophisticated refinement methods. This is because this alternative entails the conversion of the raw oil shales into liquid or gas, resembling other petroleum products. 4. Findings: The Economics of Shale Oil The shale oil is considered to be vast. However, because of the abundance of the crude oil from the Middle East, its development was in hibernation for several decades. In addition, the process of extraction of the crude oil from shales was considered to be expensive. This made shale oil production unprofitable. Beginning the year 2000, however, crude oil prices breached the $43 price per barrel. This is significant because it means that the high production cost for shale oil processing became competitive and profitable. This is demonstrated in the case of the Fushun shale oil plant in China. This facility produces about 90,000 tons of shale oil. Its success was documented by J. Qian, J. Wang and S. Li (2003), who provided a detailed computation about how the facility is making a profit as it manufactures a ton of shale oil from 33 tons of oil shale: As the oil shale mining cost is no more than 10 yuan RMB per ton (as a by-product of coal mining), the oil shale feed cost for producing 1 ton shale oil accounts for about 330 yuan RMB. Addition of the production cost… 750 yuan RMB per ton shale oil, gives about 1000 yuan RM for the total cost. Shale oil is sold as fuel oil at the cost 15000 yuan RMB/ton, and so the plant gains the benefit for 1 ton shale oil about 500 yuan RMB, that makes 45 million yuan RMB per year (more than $7 million).14 In a reliable cost estimate, A. Andrews (2011) explained: “Using the Nelson-Farrar Cost Indexes to adjust refinery construction and operation costs to 2004 dollars, the investment would be equivalent to $3.5 billion, with operating costs of $13 to $21/bbl.”15 While this cost is still significantly high in comparison to the production cost for oil refineries, the figure show that for the first time in years, shale oil production has become profitable. This highlights the claim made by Andrews that the economic case for oil shale development has been tied to the price of the conventional oil. He explained that in the next few years, the price of oil will stay high, stressing that “the price of crude oil spiked to nearly $70/bbl after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and the recent climb above $67/bbl has led to some speculation that prices may remain high indefinitely.”16 This is supported by the Annual Energy Outlook released by the US Department of Energy in 2006 that projected the oil prices until the year 2030. It reported: the average world crude oil price continues to rise through 2006 and then declines to $46.90/bbl in 2014 (2004 dollars) as new supplies enter the market. It then rises slowly to $54.08/bbl in 2025. 17 New technologies also promise to reduce production cost and improve shale oil viability. For example, there is the case of Shell’s proposed in situ conversion process (ICP). This technology avoids the spent shale disposal problems because the spent shale remains where it is created in addition to the fact that it also avoids carbon dioxide decomposition because it operates at temperatures below 350 degrees.18 The Stuart project is another example. It was recently built in Australia, a $250 million pilot plant, and is expected to significantly lower the development costs, more than the ICP alternative.19 The case of an underground shale oil mine in Estonia can demonstrate the viability of shale oil production. In Table 1, a calculation is provided, demonstrating how the separation of high coliric POS (process oil shale) yield high production capacity and low production cost. The outcome of the oil shale industry rests in the capability of refineries and plants to produce high product quality. This is because the oil quality ensures the reduction of costs for transportation, processing and burning, while at the same time, ensuring high grade fuel output and minimal environmental impact. Currently, more than 60 percent of the global shale oil output is used by power plants for electricity generation.20 A big share of the global shale oil production is also processed into oil and combustible gas. This constitutes about 25 percent of the global output and is mainly used as jet fuel, gasoline, light fuel oil, bitumen, coke, phenols, liquefied shale gas, wax, lubricating oil and other products. From an economic perspective, oil shales or other forms of hydrocarbons cannot be used as a substitute for oil if the price is the fundamental consideration. But there are two important developments that underscore why oil shales will become a crucial energy resource. The first is the depletion of the global oil reserve, which is made more critical by the unprecedented and exponential fuel consumption today both in the developed and developing countries across the globe. This variable is further aggravated by the instability of oil prices. Secondly, there is the high oil price. What this means is that the high production cost entailed in shale oil extraction and processing finally becomes viable. High prices in the global oil market can make shale oil derivatives competitive and, hence, profitable. These variables are included in a unique combination of economic circumstances concerning the oil market. In addition to high price volatility, there is the prominent and negative role and unusual longevity of OPEC, the worlds major oil cartel; the scope and size of the oil industry and their links to industrialization, economic growth and the global distribution of wealth; the lingering doubt of the sustainability of the resource base; the role of oil in the climate change issue; and numerous other political and geopolitical issues that impacts the distribution of oil around the world.21 This also highlights the fact that oil production may no longer be concentrated in one region as oil shale deposits are widely dispersed, contributing to a more equitable human economy in the future.22 Finally, by 2030, the global oil consumption would have risen exponentially so that a huge shortfall threatens if no other alternative energy sources are developed. For example, the United States will increase its fuel consumption to 7 million barrel a day in the next 25 years, the same output that China consumes today.23 There may be people who argue that advances in drilling and refining techniques could extract more conventional oil but the fact is that there are less and less oil reserves being discovered today. Several years from, it is not unlikely for the Middle Eastern oil producers to suffer the same fate that the world witnessed in the oil fields in Cantarell, Mexico. The production of oil in this region is experiencing steep decline. 5. Challenges One of the benefits of using shale oil is that the emission of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide from combustion may be significantly lower than that of oil- or coal-based power plants.24 However, this does not erase the concerns on the ecological and socio-economic impact of oil shale production. The most critical environmental impact concerns land use. Oil shale mining and extraction requires the disturbance of specific areas that may be used by communities as public spaces or recreational areas. For the oil shales to fully realize its potentials, many people and communities will have to live with drill rigs in or near their own neighborhoods and that they will most likely to usher in a host of environmental, and health problems.25 An example is how the government of Colorado, which is home to one of the world’s biggest oil shale reserves, is having difficulties developing the resource because it will affect the Green River Formation, a location for recreation and livelihood such as hiking, fishing, cattle grazing, among others. Shale oil production will also likely to affect its ecosystem diversity as it can destroy different types of habitats for many endangered species like the Bald Eagle, Colorado Pikeminnow, Boreal Toad, and Dudley Bluffs bladderpod and twinpod, among others.26 There are numerous studies undertaken that reveal the harmful effect of oil shale processing such as Tuvikene et al’s (1999) research on its links to aquatic pollution and San Sebastian et al’s (2001) work on the increasing incidence of cancer among communities that are surrounded by oil extraction facilities in the Amazon.27 Hence, it will require considerable effort to design ways and technologies by which oil shales can be processed in Colorado without needing to withdraw parts of the Formation from use and impact its flora and fauna. The requirement for vast quantities of water is also another issue being raised about shale oil development. As explained by this paper, water is required for several stages in the extraction and refining processes. For example, controlling dust during mining, actual material extraction, crushing and transport need huge quantities of water. In addition, water is also crucial in cooling and reclaiming spent shale as well as in upgrading raw shale oil. A report by the Rand Corporation described the amount of water needed in oil shale development. It cited the experience of the Upper Colorado Region in the United States wherein the consumptive water use is about 150,000 acre-feet per year for each million barrels (oil equivalent) per day of production.28 This can be translated into three parts water for every part of oil extracted or thereabouts. This water wastage is critical for the United States especially for the affected region because it will certainly conflict with its uses and directly impact ranchers, farmers, local communities, resource managers, Front Range cities, scientists and conservationists.29 Some of the problems identified this paper, which, primarily serve as the foundation of criticisms for shale oil, fundamentally stems from the fact that shale oil processing is still in its infancy. For instance, when critics raise the issue about water wastage, the problem stems from the crude processing techniques available. If sufficient funds are made available for research and development, this problem can be easily solved. It has been cited earlier that the overabundance of petroleum supply from the Middle East has stalled the development of this energy resource. Once commercial interest trickles in, it is expected that new technologies and systems will be designed so that the production process would entail less cost and less damage to people and the environment. This is highlighted by the case of Shell’s in situ proposition. Also, many states can adopt regulatory mechanisms in oil shale production that will ensure minimal damage to the environment. For example, a bill was recently introduced in the US that would impose a two percent tax on gross revenue derived from oil shale production in order to provide a so-called “reclamation fund” that can be used for environmental protection of the affected area.30 6. Conclusion Oil shales will rock the future so to speak because it is an important and vast fuel source that is only waiting to be tapped. It is present in many countries and even those with smaller deposits can produce adequate oil from this source to provide for domestic consumption. The Estonian experience demonstrated this best. It is not surprising, hence, that oil shale is identified as one of the crucial components of the alternative energy mix that is seen as solution to the instability of oil prices and the over dependence on the Middle Eastern crude oil. The body of literature that investigated the viability of oil shales recognize that the primary reason why its development was stalled was because of the adequate supply of conventional oil, which is cheaper and, hence, more profitable. Again, two important developments are changing this landscape. First, global oil reserves are gradually being depleted. Secondly, the price of oil is expected to rise, making it possible for oil shale production to become vial and its derivatives, competitive in the market. These two variables will pave the way for more investments that would also entail the development of new technologies that can significantly reduce the high production cost. In addition, this will also enable oil shale producers to address the negative impact of mining and refining of oil shales. If one factors in the favorable policy landscape for alternative energy, then the prospects and opportunities are even better. For example, in 2005, the United States Congress passed the Energy Policy Act, which sought to encourage and support the development of unconventional energy. One of its most important features include the fast-tracking of commercial development of oil shales and tar sands through a direct order to the Bureau of Land Management to prepare and introduce a leasing program and leasing regulations.31 Two years later, 1.9 million acres of public land in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming were poised to be developed as major shale oil extraction and processing sites. In line with this area, another important aspect in the oil shale development is the increase in public and private sector partnership. The American government contributes millions of dollars in commercial research on shale oil. For example, cost-sharing projects are currently being undertaken with New Paraho project, Occidental VMIS technology, superheated steam situ, and Sohio refinery modification.32 All in all, the growth of oil shale mining and processing as an industry is still governed by the economics of scale, which makes it difficult to estimate accurate costs especially for purposes of investigation and analysis. However, there are actual experiences available that should provide the empirical evidence of the oil shale viability. Inefficiencies and the challenges posed by its adverse impact to ecology and communities can still be attributed the infancy of the oil share industry. Most of these variables may be addressed when funds are finally made available so that better and more efficient techniques can be adopted to minimize problems. References Aleklett, K., Smil, V., Smith, K. and Vaitheeswaran, V. 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San Sebastian, M., Armstrong, B., Cordoba, J. and Stephens, C. Exposures and Cancer Incidence near Oil Fields in the Amazon Basin of Ecuador. Occupational Environmental Medicine 2001; 58: 8; 517-522. Schmidt, C. Blind Rush?: Shale Gas Boom Proceeds amid Human Health Questions. Environmental Health Perspectives 2011; 119: 8: A348-A353. Smith, J. World Oil: Market or Mayhem? American Economic Association 2009; 23: 3: 145-164 Speight, J. Handbook of Industrial Hydrocarbon Processes. Oxford: Gulf Professional Publishing; 2010. Tuvikene, A., Huuskonen, S., Koponen, K., Ritola, O., Mauer, U. and Lindstrom-Seppa, P. Oil Shale Processing as a Source of Aquatic Pollution: Monitoring of the Biologic Effects in Caged and Feral Freshwater Fish. Environmental Health Perspectives 1999; 107: 9: 745-752. US Congress. An Assessment of oil shale technologies. Washington, D.C.: US Congress Office of Technology Assesment; 1980. US Department of Energy. Annual Energy Outlook 2006: With Projections to 2030. Washington D.C.: Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, 2006. Read More