Children at the Crossroads: The Past and Future of Energy Usage - Essay Example

Children at the Crossroads: The Past and Future of Energy Usage In our increasingly globalized economy, the politics of energy is a complex, multi-faceted and tendentious mix of local energy requirements, national economic solvency, and global environmental concerns. It is at its heart a Malthusian numbers game: there are too many people that consume too much energy that is created from traditional hydrocarbon based technologies to ensure long-term global sustainability. In the popular media, these issues are usually presented with a specific political agenda that makes it difficult to separate calm, reasonable analysis from either the prognostications of hysteria-mongering environmental alarmists or the coolly dismissive declamations of conservative skeptics. Two works that have recently been published that attempt to replace this rhetorical sideshow with legitimate information is Vaclav Smil's Energy at the Crossroads and Alfred Crosby's Children of the Sun. Crosby's work offers a natural history of energy consumption from the development of fire and cooking all the way to third millennial technological possibilities such as the holy grail of nuclear fusion. Smil's presents a more detailed analysis of the economic and energy situation of the past century focusing specifically on the statistical utilization of hydrocarbon technologies in various countries. Their respective accounts and arguments give a good overall picture of the natural evolutionary, economic and environmental impact of the past, present and long-term future of energy. The primary thrust of Crosby's argument is that the story of technology in tandem with humanity has always been about finding novel ways of exploiting the same source of energy: the Sun. As humanity has expanded and become more socially and culturally sophisticated technology has responded by finding consistently more efficient ways to harness the sun's powers, indirectly through wood and biomass and in more recent times, directly through wind and solar power utilization. However, unlike other analyses Crosby places humanity within nature versus against nature, and thus his work is a "natural history" of energy consumption rather than a litany of environmental offenses we have committed against nature. Of course, Crosby is sympathetic to the Malthusian end game at stake. He reveals through historical examples that every crossroads or crisis point, humanity has found a way to transform technologically the way in which we utilize energy to avoid the collapse of civilization. One specific example of this was the dependence on whale oil in the 18th century. "Humanity's yearnings for the convenience of light at night, though implemented through a primitive technology, were endangering a whole species of Cetacea."1 The two options to resolving this yearning included conservation, unthinkable by all except for the most progressive of individuals, or finding a substitute, which turned out to be kerosene and "the history of human exploitation of sun energy took another violent turn."2 The situation is much the same, today's whale oil is petroleum, with two "minor" complications here in the 21st century 1) the global political and economic dynamic have interposed agendas on technological transformation, and 2) hesitancy in adopting conservationist practices has placed a significant stress on the planets resources locally and globally. The question of Oil is more than just a question of natural history; it has become the bellwether issue of our time. Many would assert that the current situation in the Middle East is directly related to this question, and the political catchphrase of the decade has been "reducing our dependence on foreign oil." Smil's statistical analysis of oil usage is thorough and he means to tackle the popular debate regarding the "Peak Oil" theory. Peak Oil offers that at some point in the near past or near future3 maximum oil production will be reached followed by terminal decline. The consequences of failing to find a viable alternative energy form or non-fossil fuel at or before this point might have irrevocable outcomes for humanity. Smil presents two positions on this debate, one dubbed the "catastrophist prophecy" portends, as the name suggests, that Peak Oil was some time ago, as early as the 1970's and as such does not bode well for the survival of the human species. As stated by one advocate of this position, "modern civilization has already moved very close to, or perhaps even beyond, the point of no return as it rushes toward exhaustion of nonrenewable resources, irreparable deterioration of the global environment, and deepening social crises."4 The other position commonly called the "cornucopian" position suggests, "As far as crude oil is concerned, the cost of translating its resources into reserves does not seem to be giving any signals of immanent exhaustion."5 Smil's takes a centrist position between these two extremes. He suggests that energy forecasting methods do not account properly for new methods of extracting more efficiently sources of petroleum, and fails to acknowledge conservation techniques leveraged by advancements in automobile technology for example or the philosophical adjustments made by individual consumers. He relies on the work of Colin Campbell to state that peak oil production should occur around 2010, intimating that while the situation is drawing to head there is still time to conceive a comprehensive energy strategy that will reduce dependence on petroleum significantly in the next 40 years. He is also quick to point that better forecasting methods will need to be developed if we intend to manage the energy situation with any level of precision or competency. Smil is also sensitive to the fact that this energy "crisis" is a political crisis as well. The uncertainty about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East adds a level of complication to this analysis and offers: "Plausible scenarios span an uncomfortably wide range of possibilities, from a manageable transition toward more open and at least quasi-democratic regimes throughout the region thus far dominated by dynastic (Saudi Arabia), clerical (Iran), or military (Iraq) autocracies-all the way to visions of global Armageddon unleashed by the suicidal armies of the faithful against the infidels."6 Thus despite the continuing role of petroleum in providing for our prodigious energy needs, the 21st century cannot be a replica of the 20th, energetically speaking. Not only are there sociological concerns of reconciling the differences between those who consume too much energy and those whose dream to consume such energies against the balance of available resources; additionally, there is a growing ecological fallout. This includes the changing soil chemistry, the acidification of lakes and streams, the unbalancing of the fragile ocean biosphere and mass deforestation. In Children of the Sun, Crosby considers the possibility of some alternative energy sources. In taking up the issue of hydrogen fuel cell usage, there are some great positives. It is practically everywhere, the oceans are full of it, unfortunately the quantities of electricity required to separate it from its oxygen partner is mind-boggling, 400 billion additional watts.7 According to him there are not the rivers available to create enough damns to provide that electricity, and even if there were the cost required to minimize the ecological damage to the North American limnological system would be untenable to its prudent citizens. Alfred Crosby's otherwise quiescent approach to the coming energy crisis has at least one controversial prescription. He suggests that nuclear energy "waits at our elbow like a superb butler."8 The incidents of Three Mile Island and Chernobyl spelled doom in the 80's and 90's for backyard nuclear reactors in the United States, but while 80% of the electricity in France is provided through nuclear power this is only at around 20% here in the US according to Crosby. He concludes that a serious reconsideration be taken on a national and global basis for the possibility of re-implementing nuclear power as an active part of our energy distribution strategy. It is also his prerogative that essential research dollars be provided to developing more inventive and scientifically novel alternative energy resources like nuclear fusion. Smil is much more skeptical about the utilization of nuclear power plants. One, only France in the West is committed to nuclear energy as a utility solution, thus many other countries are unwilling to adopt such a strategy. Two, there is overwhelming attitudinal aversions to such a possibility, the resources required to overcome such prejudice is perhaps not worth it. Finally, nuclear power for all its possibilities cannot infiltrate the current utilities infrastructure, and of course personal usage of such power is likely permanently off the table. Smil is more measured in his solutions, suspicious about the predictive powers of energy forecasting; he does not offer long term solutions. He believes that oil consumption in the coming years will be more a function of demand rather than availability as political and cultural attitudes continue to develop regarding the conservation of such resources. He also suggests that technological developments in the 21st century will make strides in the extraction, refinement and distribution of fossil fuels, and deems that alternative energy resources will be confined to niche markets but research should nevertheless continue. It seems that world leaders should attempt to divide the energy strategy and the solutions to the larger global environmental situation into three phases: short, medium and long term strategies. In each phase three different competencies or categories of analysis should be developed: conservation, technological advancements, and experimental research. Specifically in the short term, as far as conservation is concerned, perhaps getting universal signatory approval of the Kyoto Protocol would be a prudent move. It should be a goal to provide environmental education classes at an earlier age in school to develop a conservationist attitude among the next generation of consumers. Along the lines of technological advancement in the short term, improving the efficiency of our automobiles, trucks, and railroad system should be paths of endeavor. Namely, offering a more lucrative reward package for auto manufacturers who develop more efficient hybrid and fuel cell technologies. In the medium term, it might behoove us to take Crosby's suggestion and respond to the call of nuclear energy at least on an experimental basis. In the extreme long term, there is a possibility that extra-terrestrial energy solutions are possible. Carl Sagan, a popular astronomer, claimed that humanity was really a "two planet" species. There are possibilities of researching methods to mine resources on other planets; these might be taken up in the near future. It is perhaps wise to recognize that revolutions in the natural history of energy usage will no longer occur as homogenously as they have in the past. There will likely be no more massive singular shifts from wood to coal from whale oil to petroleum and solutions will also have to be fragmented, piecemeal and multiform-it is unlikely there will be any Silver Bullet or Killer App type solution to his complex and pressing problem. Bibliography Crosby, Alfred W. Children of the Sun: A History of Humanity's Unappeasable Appetite. New York: Norton, 2006. Smil, Vaclav. Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2003. Read More