Nuclear Possession of Iran - Essay Example

Irn's nucler possession Inroduction "It seemed to me tht such wepon ws not necessry to bring the wr to successful conclusion, tht once used it would find its wy into the rmments of the world..."1 This quote refers to the use of nucler bombs nd ws expressed by Struss, militry intelligence officero hs delt lot with this wepon nd sw the results of its prolifertion. Considering the ltest Irnin nucler developments, one might question whether study now on how best to restrin Tehrn is simply one tht's come too lte. To be sure, estimtes vry s to when Irn could build its first bomb. In either cse, though, the die seems cst: If Irn wnts, it hs ll tht it needs eventully to build bomb on its own. Certinly, trying to deny Irn further nucler technology in the hopes tht this will prevent it from getting nucler wepons is no longer credible strtegy. The questions this pper ddresses the future of Irn nucler cpbilities nd its potentil usge domesticlly s well s worldwide. rguments "for" nd "ginst" Irn's power to use nucler wepon re provided s well s conclusions bout the issue given in the end of the pper. History on the issue Irn is the poster-child for the nexus of terrorism nd WMD. It is the world's foremost stte-sponsor of terrorism, s well s one of the countries most ctively pursuing nucler wepons. Wshington is vigilnt bout Irn's support for network of Islmist terrorist orgniztions nd persistent in pressing Irn to end its finncil, politicl, mteril, nd opertionl support to them. Recently, Bush nd the Pentgon hve clled Irn "rogue ntion" ( Third World stte tht possesses wepons of mss destruction nd sponsors terrorism). Irn is depicted s sort of regime, supposedly pursuing nucler, chemicl nd biologicl wepons cpbility nd missile delivery systems, tht justifies the building of missile defences. Like North Kore, the Pentgon in fct needs Irn to ct "s the bd guy" nd hs little interest right now in ltering its "behviour". Current president of Irn, Mhmoud hmdinejd, ws not much better known when he entered the presidentil election cmpign, lthough he hd lredy mde his mrk s Tehrn myor for rowing bck on erlier reforms. Since his election he hs tken tough stnd on number of foreign policy mtters, in line with his hrd-line bckground. His comments tht Isrel should be "wiped off the mp" nd tht the Holocust ws "myth" drew widespred condemntion from the West. However, to proceed with tht gol, president needs tobe empowered to ct nd mke decisions, which in Irn is n unlimited option since Irn's Islmic constitution provides n extrordinry concentrtion of executive power not in the hnds of the elected president but in those of the Supreme Leder, or vli-ye fqih, ppointed by council of clerics dominted by hrd-liners. In fct, the Irnin president wields less rel power thn perhps ny other elected chief executive in the world. This new constitution defines the Islmic Republic s new kind of stte, one ruled by qulified Islmic jurists until the missing Twelfth Imm, the lst rightful ruler who disppered in 941, mkes his nticipted return to erth to usher in the ge of perfect justice. rguments ginst Irn obtining nucler power Militnt Islm is tody's engine of interntionl terror. Islmist schools breed new militnt genertion, Islmist sermons mobilize opinion ginst the free world, Islmist ideology legitimizes recourse to terror nd Islmist "chrities" bnkroll the globl network of terror. While most Muslim sttes re wre of this thret to the world nd their own stbility, there is one tht is ctully governed by Islmists: The Islmic Republic of Irn. Therefore, the principl component of the wr ginst terrorism should be the wr ginst mitnt Islm, which over the lst 20 decdes hs been inspired, nurtured, nd funded by the Islmic Government of Irn. The demise of the clericl regime in Irn would go long wy in "drining the swmp" of militncy nd rdiclism in the broder Muslim world with enormous geopoliticl consequences for U.S. ntionl security interests. Therefore, the permnent success of this cmpign rests on regime chnge in Irn. In short, the United Sttes fces two immedite timelines: one, the mullhs' ccess to nucler bomb, nd the other, institutionliztion of democrcy through regime chnge. The fundmentl gol of U.S. foreign policy should be the ccelertion of the regime chnge timeline. ccording to diplomts nd US officils, experts from the IE hve reported tht Irn is on the verge of opertion 164 centrifuge ccede, mchinery tht hs peceful pplictions but cn lso eventully be used to mke fuel for bomb. Currently, Irnin officils ssert tht their urnium-enrichment ctivities re purely for energy or reserch purposes rther thn militry ones. "There's no plce for nucler wepons in our ntionl scurity doctrine", Lrijni told. He points out tht Supreme Leder ytullh li Khmenei hs issued ftw forbidding the use of nucler wepons. However, such clims were undermined gin in Jnury when he IE reported n dministrtive link between urnium-conversionprogrm known s Green Slt nd efforts to weponize missiles. In mny respects, the people of Irn fce similr set of timelines. The choices fcing Irn over the next 10-20 yers re simple: country relegted to permnent Third World sttus with nucler bomb or n dvnced, modern, seculr country t pece with itself nd its neighbors. The geopoliticl interests of the United Sttes coincide with the interests of mjority of Irnins: fundmentl chnge in the nture of the regime in Tehrn. The overthrow of the Islmic Republic of Irn is good for meric nd good for the Irnin people. Therefore, Wshington's strtegy should be to support those forces inside nd outside Irn which shre meric's politicl, economic, militry, nd geopoliticl vision for the region. Towrds this end, the United Sttes must continue to isolte the clericl regime nd encourge the growing spirit of rebellion mong the repressed Irnins. nother rgument ginst Irn's gining the nucler power hs ppered fter Irn's President Mhmoud hmdinejd clled Isrel "rotten, dried tree" tht will be nnihilted by "one storm." Strting of conference on following the Plestinins, hmdinejd fiercely lshed out Isrel, sying it ws "permnent thret" to the Middle Est tht will "soon" be liberted, nd questioning the vlidity of the Nzi Holocust ginst Jews in World Wr II. "Like it or not, the Zionist regime is heding towrd nnihiltion," hmdinejd sid. "The Zionist regime is rotten, dried tree tht will be eliminted by one storm," he sid. s result of such risky ssertion, The United Sttes, Frnce nd Isrel now ccuse Irn of using civilin nucler progrm to secretly build n tomic bomb. Irn denies this, sying its progrm is confined to collecting electricity. The U.N. Security Council hs given Irn until pril 28 to cese enrichment. But Irn hs rejected the demnd. In such sitution, the resolution of the problem is through diplomtic wy of mesures tht Wshington nd its llies my use to prevent Irn from nucler drems. Within Irn, the youth tht mke up mjority of the popultion, journlists of reformist newsppers, clerics who question the legitimcy of the Supreme Leder, nd women who re t the forefront of defying the ruling theocrts re Wshington's nturl llies. Enggement nd collbortion between these groups nd meric should be the cornerstone of U.S. policy towrds Irn. rguments for Irn gining nucler power The rgument for Irn's gining nucler power bsiclly refers to the needs of the country in energy resources. Current Irn's popultion is bout 70 nd is estimted to rech 100 million by 2025. Since 1978, Irn's energy consumption hs incresed 5.5 percent per yer on verge, while its energy production hs brely kept up with its consumption. The demnd for electric power is growing t n nnul rte of eight percent. Thus Irn requires incresing the production of electricity by 2021 nd building progrms for doing tht. Supposedly, electricity needs would require 112 to 140 million brrels of oil per yer becuse 18 percent of the electricity will be from burning oil. If this trend continues nd crude oil is not replced by nother energy source, nd if Irn does not increse oil production significntly, it will become net importer of oil over next decde, huge ctstrophe for ntion tht obtins 80 percent of its totl export ernings nd 45 percent of its totl nnul budget from exporting oil. Irn lso possesses bout 942 trillion cubic feet in nturl gs reserves--15.2 percent of the world's proven reserves--second only to Russi. s result, nturl gs hs incresingly become min source of energy in Irn (see "Nucler Inclintion"). The rgument cn be pproved if tking into considertion tht Irn signed the Sttute of IE in 1958, committing itself to peceful use of nucler energy nd non-prolifertion of nucler wepons, the Comprehensive Test Bn Trety in 1963, the Nucler Non-Prolifertion Trety (NPT) in 1967, the Comprehensive Sfegurds greement with the IE in 1973, the Subsidiry rrngements in 1974 to fcilitte the inspection of nucler ctivities by IE sfegurds, nd the dditionl Protocol of NPT in December 2003. Most of these treties hve not been ccepted by Indi, Isrel, nd Pkistn--three countries with nucler wepons. Despite Irn's commitments, the United Sttes hs trnsformed Irn's nucler energy progrm into one of the most complex interntionl issues. Irn's progrm hs importnt implictions for the Middle Est nd the world. ll in ll, ccess to nucler energy provides Irn with legl right to build nucler fcility, including one for urnium enrichment, so long s it is intended for peceful purposes. Building the enrichment fcility in Ntnz is not in violtion of ny provisions of Irn's nucler commitments. Irn's most serious lleged NPT violtion ws the trces of the highly-enriched urnium (HEU) tht were found in some of the fcilities. However, the IE now believes tht the source of the HEU is the contminted equipment tht Irn hd imported. Conclusions Current pper provided n overview of contemporry issues in Irn nucler power ccess. It ws rgued tht Irn does not hve proper gols to nucler possessions despite country's growing needs in electricity. Methods of preventing Irn from nucler prolifertion (deterring use, keeping Tehrn from deploying wepons, getting it to dismntle its nucler progrm, etc. tht ultimtely shpe Wshington diplomtic pproch to deling with the issue) should be nticipted. From the other side, the pper rgued tht Irn should be empowered to nucler ccess s the country requires providing more electricity for the growing number of locl citizens. ll in ll, US efforts to prevent Irnin ccess to nucler should not fil, otherwise, US President my confront sobering choice: live with relity of nucler Irn, or tke the risk of ttcking it. ll of which leds to nother, simple proposition: get redy for the world to become more dngerous plce. Read More