Strategic Forecasting for War in Somalia - Essay Example

1.0 War mongering is a pandemic that is a characteristic in the sub-Saharan Africa. The horn of Africa for example is torn apart owing tomassive crisis that undermines the right to life and one wonders what the united nation is contemplating about the malaise that is eating away the original Abyssinia. There is however a grave need of forecasting and strategic planning as a primary objective in combating the atrocities perpetrated and peddled around by warring factions. The irony consequentially is that manufacturer and catalyst of arm are all from the west. Much as the western civilization is so prolific in the accumulation of economic prowess it no doubt that the civilization is condemned by itself. Crisis prevention, conflict transformation and peace-building should be at the centre stage in Somalia. The world at large should come out clear to fight this crisis. Restoration of sanity in Somalia should borrow a leaflet from post-conflict countries, where all warring factions. To this end, it is taken into account, for instance, that all population groups must have equal access to inputs, and every effort is made to ensure that the weaker party to the conflict is not disadvantaged. The need for a comprehensive strategy is needed with all the urgency. 1.1 Introduction War is simply a disease of the body politics; a pathological condition which can be traced to abnormalities in the social or economic structures or to the racial characteristics of particular peoples. Historians on the other hand do not discuss war from the aspect of good or evil normality or abnormality, health or disease. For them it is simply the use of violence by states for enforcement, the protection or extension of their political power. War in Somalia has left an estimated 400,000 Somali's displaced since the (IFG) backed by the Ethiopian army entered Mogadishu last December to eject Islamic courts union (ICU) The UNHCR estimate 124,000 people have fled Mogadishu since Feb. 2004 while 73,000 are reported to have left capital Mogadishu. 1.2 Definition of the Anomaly. Conflicts in Africa date back to 1884 when the continent was balkanized into colonies by European powers. The state, in trying to assist to bring order amid disorder, merely adds another dimension to the conflict. External actors to a conflict should be identified and brought to participate in the conflict resolution. The mind must be decolonized so that conflict resolution and peace building and dialogue can be regionalized and, where appropriate globalize. Early warning responding units involving CSO, up to the community level, should be in a position to soften the edges between groups. This includes suggesting other ways of resolving issues that recourse to arms. There is need to study the countries success stories. In cases where there is internalization of conflict international actors are quick to respond to bring peace to the area. Consideration, therefore ought to be given to the internationalization of peace building process. The presence of the UN force and the Ethiopian military occupation is a reflection of a political hostility. However, this is to be blamed on external forces reverberating waves of fear in the Nation of Somalia, consequently, it is futile to try to regulate or reduce military forces separately from their underlying political issues. Basically hostility should be resolved, through the reduction in arms. This will bring sanity and a sense of security among residents. To attempt control of military forces before removing the political sources of friction or threat is to put the cart before the horse. 1.3 Rationale. The basic point should be stressed again no arms-control plaint will remain effective and dependable unless it continues to serve the national interest of Somalia and its warring factions as its leaders conceive those interest. In reaching their judgments they would however appraise the alternatives. The main function of inspection and of remedies available to the other parties is to make evasion unattractive as an alternative concern. These prospects fall well short of total disarmament. But realism seems to require recognition of the fact that such a state can be approached if at all, only under conditions which permit international enforcement to operate effectively. In particular it appears to call for an international agency with adequate authority and coercive means to punish and constrain a violator of the system. And this presupposes the fundamental changes in the political sphere as would pause a different range of problems within a new context. Everybody living in Africa is involved in conflict in one way or another, be it war, imprisonment state instigated violence. Inter-ethnic violence and other forms of violence. In any conflict there are groups that are either directly involved in or affected by it. There are also groups that are involved in peace initiatives, aimed at resolving the conflict and sustaining peace. The African academy of sciences started discussing issues of conflict and conflict resolution in the 1989. There cannot be development in Africa in the absence of basic political order and the desire to create and maintain social and economic systems. Peace is a pre-requisite for any development; it ensures that people are secure and feed at home morally, physically, intellectually and spiritually. In order to establish an institution which they value, it is important for the affected conflicting sides to have an all inclusive peace building institutions and development forum. Frequently a chasing exists between combatants, their supporters or surrogates and those proposing peace. The academic exercises in peace initiatives and conflict resolution by those not directly involved must come to an end. Efforts need to be made and initiatives undertaken to bring together the combatants and those seeking peace, whether directly involved or on the periphery. The discussions held should not only aim at ending the conflict but also for setting up of institutions which will be acceptable to all. Because the combatants themselves, and their supporters or surrogates are concerned with the fighting and with winning the next battle, they are blinkered in that they do not look at possible alternatives. As the philosopher, Saint Augustine of Hippo said; however great or right you are stop for a moment and think, you could be wrong. It is vital therefore for the combatants to have the support unity to stop and think that some of the options being pursued could in part be wrong. The approach to be adopted is one of softening the address of the differences between the opponents in a conflict. This requires a knowledge and understanding of the problems and examining ways of bringing the combatants together. 1.4 Conflict Resolution Strategies 1.4.1 Cultural Reconstruction. Building a world of peace that will be worth at least the name better than before includes many problem political economic and cultural. Each of them is loaded with difficulties. Yet all of them have to be considered together and attacked together as an interdependent aspect of one dynamic field if any successful step forward is to be achieved. The discussion of conflict resolution in Somalia seems to have been retarded by the philosophical and political sentiments. The differences between a people that historically embrace one language, one religion is yet to be quantified. Their seem to be an overemphasis about the conduct between the Somali's and the under emphasis that has treated humanity as guinea pigs for a hunger reduction strategy project. In retrospect this has been conceived as the most blatant of the worst forms of misrepresenting the democratic doctrine of equal rights of men. Scientific approaches need to be put in place with a clear framework that defines boundaries between primitive cultures or groups of civilians. Such scientific approaches should operate on a serious constitution. It should therefore refuse the consideration of cultural characteristics unalterable in principle; instead it will ask in an empirical fashion. A certain amount of cultural reconstruction will be necessary in most areas of Somalia. The Gulf nation on the horn of Africa has therefore to undergo a serious from wartime to a peace time culture. Somali should accelerate this move though stake holders; the AU, IGAD, Arab League and the UN leadership to bring a lasting solution in the lawless state. The transition to a peacetime culture should be less difficulty than conceived in view of the current state of a series of bombardments. Particularly if peace has to bring about a decent political world organization. This experience should warn us not to confuse the violence of a cultural sentiment with its depths and permanency. The fact that superficial although violent cultural sentiments might not change quickly in a nation does not, however, disapprove those historians who claim that nothing so little can change the aspect of deeper cultural uniformity all over the world. The parallel to democratic freedom for the individual is cultural pluralism for groups. Somali call for an inclusive democracy that will safeguard against the misuse of individual freedom by the gangster or politically speaking the intolerant. To encourage change towards democracy a change of values is a vast realm would have to be accomplished. This change would include for instance increased emphasis on human values as against superhuman values, such as the state, politics and science. It would emphasize what the German "Iron Chancellor" Bismarck called civil courage some way back in 1880. It would stress the value of manipulating difficulties rather than complain about them. It would stress education for independence and not obedience. In any attempt to influence cultural patterns it cannot be emphasized to much that problem of changing single person or small groups which are uprooted and transplanted into a new cultural background is rather different from the problem of changing the culture of a compact group remaining on native soil. The technique which seems to offer itself as a natural means to reach such a compact group for the purpose of changing the cultural backgrounds is propaganda etc. when speaking about democracy it implicitly denotes the issue of individualistic freedom. However leadership is fully an important in a democracy as in an autocracy. 1.5 Social System. An emergency social system has to be put in place to fill the "social gap" (Leeds, 1961) to meet the mission disaster needs with a flood of disaster service people and equipment must be mobilized to do rescue work, provide medical care, give shelter, food and clothing to the victims. Reassurance and reuniting of primary group members and repair of damaged public services essential to the community welfare. At the same time the essential maintenance activities must be continued, including the care of dependent children and the regular feeding of families as well as maintaining public order and public utility output. 1.6 Realization of Peace. The realisation of lasting peace is the greatest problem bon by man today. No people have ever changed to remain completely apart from the disasters of war. The fires of war on this earth have not been completely extinguished in any historical age. Moreover war is not a disaster besetting man from without. It takes place in the heart of man, and man is the principle performer in its strategy. It is one of the highest aspects of human life erupting to become a blot on all humanity. Since man causes war, it should be within his jurisdiction to combat the evil. Close up their eyes on a more realistic world of life within each human being. 1.7 African Unity (AU) With escalating conflicts in Somalia and Darfur, it is oblivious that senseless violence prevails in the horn of Africa. The AU has the obligation to ensure that civilians are protected and given an opportunity to resolve and negotiate their problems through dialogue. It is however unfortunate that while other countries have developed serious security and an economic policy, Africa is stuck in the incomprehensible non-interference policy. United nations summit in 2001 adopted the principal of responsibility to protection which obliges international community to intervene incase a state has failed to protect her citizens. African states must therefore change tactics and take tough collective action to handle militia groups and warlords I Somalia and other places like Darfur. Instead of giving them asylum they should round them up and charge them for crimes perpetrated against humanity. They should account for torture and maiming they create. Serious arms embargo ad monitoring of arms supply has to be enhanced. Committed political leadership is highly necessary to curtail the Rwandan genocide in Somalia. Au should heavily invest in early warning systems, conflict resolution and peace building. There has to be a strong political institutional accountability that would otherwise deter wars from escalating. African policy of non- interference should be ratified and cease granting asylum to a current crop of African leaders. The AU must break with the OAU policies of non-interference and sovereignty. But to achieve this, AU must be sufficiently equipped to embrace preventative diplomacy to preempt conflict and address them from their roots. Soft diplomacy and soft handling of rogue leaders and warlords has to come to instant halt. If Africa is to overcome conflicts, dictators and war loads have to cease being statesmen. Institutionalization of an accountable state with proper checks and balances and equitability in resources utilization are the pillars to addressing the endless vicious conflicts in Africa. 1.8 Transitional government The transitional federal government has been making great efforts towards establishing a lasting peace in Somalia. The terrible situation in Mogadishu has overshadowed the relatively peaceful areas notably Somaliland, purtland and the south remnant hardliners of the Islamic courts Union have largely been responsible for the recent upsurge of violence in Mogadishu ha triggered a major exodus of thousands of civilians to flee towards the Kenyan border, more than 150,000 people have been killed in the violence including Ethiopian soldiers and peace keeping troops from Uganda. The TFG is committed to holding of a National Reconciliatory conference starting this month till Mid-June bringing together all the key stakeholders. This includes traditional elders, women, religious leaders and those in the Diaspora. Since Somalia is both a member of the Arab league and intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), there is an underlying significance of forging stronger cooperation between IGAD and the Arab league in their efforts to bring peace. 1.8 Arm Control. The concept of arms control includes any agreement among several powers to regulate some aspects of their military capability or potential. The arrangement may apply to location, amount readiness, or types of military force, weapons, or facilities, whatever their scope or terms, however, all plans for arms control have one common features they presuppose some form of co-operation or joint action among the several participants regarding their military programmes. 1.9 Criteria of Acceptability. Arms- control measures broader the arsenal of instruments available for constructing of instruments available for constructing and reinforcing viable deterrent system by means a agread standards, limitations, or safeguards. They may serve to reduce the likelihood of war; or possibly the border of effective deterrence. To establish arms control, the parties will have to be in accord on; applicable limitations; methods of verifying compliance; and the consequences of violation. 2.0 Limits of Inspection. The cornerstone of arms control is typical of inspection thus methods for obtaining or verifying evidence. Inspection in this case should be foolproof. In any case if 100 percent certainty was required in the inspection system, virtually no arms control would be feasible. In practice, no technique depending on human skills and judgment can be infallible. The interplay is however, apparent eve n when the primary purpose is to provide reciprocal information for reassurance or the avoidance of mistakes as in some schemes for preventing accidental wars or for inhibiting surprise attack. Inspection to prevent mistake or surprise may be greatly facilitated by agreed-upon restrictions concerning readiness or disposition which would almost be violated to amount such an attack. 2.1 References: Arnet, E. (ed.) 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