Adapting transportation requirement to the population growth in the Central Florida Region - Case Study Example

Adapting transportation requirement to the population growth in the Central Florida Region. Paper submitted by Executive Summary This project analyses the growing need of Florida with reference to growing population, transport needs for commuting, goods and tourism, and the building of infrastructure. It discusses the projected model for the study using linear methods for finding out the optimum use of resources for viability and operation. Introduction To plan for the Florida region with respect to the transportation requirements in the coming years, these important variables ought to be considered in detail: 1. Population projections of the region. The population, and their travel and the mode and method of travel, frequency, commuting and the specific requirement are important. 2. Travel demand and transportation requirements. The second factor after we analyze the demographic data is the ideal choice of transports, the method of commuting, tourist and other non regular travelers, and goods transport is to be chalked out. 3. Safety and infrastructure requirements. What is the driving, traveling, infrastructure safety to be considered What is the fatality rate now, and how ought it be reduced What structures have to be built and how the cost and benefit be used 4. Cost benefit analysis Once we have all the data with us, we perform a statistical analysis of these variables and find a linear solution to the model creation for the transport planning for the region. 5. Analysis The analysis of the concept is then revised with the results obtained to present a workable model. The population, Demand & Projections Population and economy The Florida population is growing and the projections suggest that the population will treble and added to that are the tourists, settlers, immigrants expected on account of the development of the region as a commercial hub. According to the 2025 Florida Transportation Plan, "Florida has long been one of the nation's fastest growing states. This rapid growth is expected to continue over the next two decades and by 2025, it is anticipated that: - The state's population will grow to 24.4 million residents, an increase of 40 percent Over 2004 levels or over 900 new residents per day, the population over the age of 65 will grow to 5.8 million residents, an increase of 92 percent over 2004 levels and a dramatic increase in the need for specialized mobility options. - The state's employment base will grow to more than 11.6 million jobs, an increase of 45 percent over 2004 levels. The number of interstate and international visitors to Florida will exceed more than 92 million per year, an increase of 23 percent over 2003 levels. - The volume of domestic and international freight moving to, from, and within Florida will increase to 1.5 million tons per year, an increase of 78 percent from 2001 levels. This growth will continue to increase the demand for people and freight movement to, from, and within Florida. Current projections indicate the demand for nearly all modes of Transportation will increase at a higher rate than population and employment over the next two decades." 1 Urban areas are expected to grow and it is the urban areas that contain the most (90%) of the population. Over seventy five percent of the population commutes long distances to work. Not only commuting, but requirement of freight forwarding, both within the region and to other places is on the rise. The actual demand for freight movement in 2002 was in various segments of transportation as shown below. The survey indicates a future projection to the extent that Road transports will be: 54% and lifting of cargo by air - 74%, Through the railway 29%, and shipping 115%. Movement of freight by road is 85% by railway 65% and shipping at 48%. Rate of increase in the population is expected to be at 42% per 23.7sqm.2 "The state has been adjusting to the growth phenomenally well. For more than a century, Florida's transportation system has adapted to growth and changes in the state's economy and communities. The extension of rail service from Jacksonville to the rest of the peninsula, the development of the federal Interstate Highway System and urban expressways, the introduction of urban transit systems, the expansion of Florida's seaports to accommodate modern container and cruise ships, the introduction of the transcontinental jet, and innovations in space travel all have contributed to continued prosperity and livability in the state."3 One of the most successful implementation of future design is seen in the Intermodel system and the Turnpike. Transportation needs and Projections The Florida Authorities came up with the "Strategic Intermodal System Multi-Modal Unfunded Needs Plan is to identify the major transportation capacity improvement needs for the SIS through 2030. The Department will identify improvements for highway, rail, aviation, and seaport facilities without regard to funding availability." These programs are at presented unfunded and aided. Additional capacity will be determined for a ten year plan. "The Department will identify the need for additional capacity and recommend capacity solutions to reduce congestion and enhance mobility. Modal alternatives the Department will consider in this effort include light rail, commuter rail, and transit ways, including bus rapid transit (BRT). The five SIS goals of safety, preservation, mobility, economic competitiveness, and community/environment will guide the development of the plan."4 It therefore follows that there cannot be one simple solution to the problem, but approaching it in a multi modal manner with analysis for each sector and the ration of analysis done for each sector separately. Florida's Turnpike Began at the 1950s, the system is used by commuters. It was originally under Florida State Turnpike Authority. The first toll was established in 1974 for Florida's Turnpike from Miami to Homestead. In 1986, the Sawgrass Expressway Toll 869 opened to traffic. Now there are nine new system interchanges. The SunPass, is a prepaid toll program on toll roads and toll is paid by over 1,800 vehicles per hour. Over 2 million motorists are SunPass customers. The turnpike system is a proven success for the state as on date. In the future requirements will be as under: Transport Requirements Data The objectives of the future projection, especially with regard to the turnpike like operation ought to be to mprove the safety, reduce accidents, and ensure pedestrian safety. Airports, seaports and freight rail terminals. The activity-level thresholds within the designation criteria for airports, seaports and freight rail terminals are to be collected and expressed as a percentage of total nationwide activity levels. Passenger Terminals and the necessities are to be included. Investigation ought to be continued to find the actual need for space for containers, or space ports, tonnage moved daily through the waterway and rail, Passenger rail use, and necessary expansion or building of new highways. Further Exclusive-Use Facilities which are defined as "Provides intercity or interregional service with connection to other modes." Or "Provides alternative travel mode within designated SIS interregional highway or rail corridors." Currently, no facilities in Florida meet these criteria, but FDOT has initiated development of policy guidance for future development of criteria to enable some facilities that would enhance inter modal connectivity for interregional, interstate and international trips to be designated as part of the SIS." Data to be analyzed for the infrastructure include engineering needs like bridges, number of Right-of-Way parcels, ratio of transit rider ship growth to population growth 1.48 Other data would include: a) Average cost per requested one-way trip for transportation, b) Number of one-way public transit passenger trips 202,600,000 c) Maintenance condition rating of state highway system as measured against the Department's Maintenance standards. d) Total budget for intrastate highway construction and arterial highway e) Number of motor vehicle fatalities per 100 million miles traveled f) Percentage increase in final amount paid for completed construction contracts over original amount less than 10% g) Number of lane miles let to contract for resurfacing Florida's Turnpike Enterprise Toll Operations Operational cost per toll transaction less than $0.16 Operational cost per dollar collected less than $0.19 Number of toll transactions 828,500,000(average) compared to total agency costs and positions. The Analysis A Linear Program (LP) is a problem that can be expressed as follows (the so-called Standard Form): " minimize cx subject to Ax = b x >= 0 where x is the vector of variables to be solved for, A is a matrix of known coefficients, and c and b are vectors of known coefficients. The expression "cx" is called the objective function, and the equations "Ax=b" are called the constraints. All these entities must have consistent dimensions, of course, and you can add "transpose" symbols to taste. The matrix A is generally not square, hence you don't solve an LP by just inverting A. Usually A has more columns than rows, and Ax=b is therefore quite likely to be under-determined, leaving great latitude in the choice of x with which to minimize cx."5 The linear approach is good for techniques used in a general way to find optimal solutions. The input in these techniques is only the LP in the above formula, and determines a solution that does not reference information of the LP's origins or its special structure. They are quickly computable and have high accuracy. Vast ranges of the problem matrix can be analyzed this way. "Two families of solution techniques are in wide use today. Both visit a progressively improving series of trial solutions, until a solution is reached that satisfies the conditions for an optimum. Simplex methods, introduced by Dantzig about 50 years ago, visit "basic" solutions computed by fixing enough of the variables at their bounds to reduce the constraints Ax = b to a square system, which can be solved for unique values of the remaining variables. Basic solutions represent extreme boundary points of the feasible region defined by Ax = b, x >= 0, and the simplex method can be viewed as moving from one such point to another along the edges of the boundary. Barrier or interior-point methods, by contrast, visit points within the interior of the feasible region. These methods derive from techniques for nonlinear programming that were developed and popularized in the 1960s by Fiacco and McCormick, but their application to linear programming dates back only to Karmarkar's innovative analysis in 1984."6 It is of course not possible to conduct an analysis manually, for the data is huge and complex. The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) is using a special system called the 'AASHTO Ware Pontis software aided system', and the 'Bridge Management System' (BMS) Both are used as tools for decision making and for planning and programming, Other than that it is also used for repairs, maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement for more than six thousand bridges. This program is based on the above explained linear approach. The calculation of truck height and weight that would exceed the prescribed limits, cost model and input parameters and use of the cost model for the categories arrived at constitutes an very important step. Similar cost models are projected for bridges, wharfs, railroads, nd rolling stock. It also includes the renovation and maintenance of existing structures and the cost and burden added with creation of new ones. This kind of software will be necessary to give a complete analysis of the scenario. Having identified the key areas and the data required including the type of software, we now proceed to the analysis. Conclusions Turnpike systems provide for the maximum revenue and therefore form the most important element. Waterways and Railways are important in that order. The analysis created by the result of the analysis by the SIS resulted in the following formulations and with the available data at hand we can come to the conclusion that : A strategic plan must be created for five years and reviewed annually. There must be a provision to extend the capacity of the SIS hubs at the same time retaining the global competitiveness All modern constructions ought to go in for new generation technology and vehicles. Investments must be made and concentrated on the regional structure enhancement for the transportation needs with "Regional Incentive Program that support regional economic development and growth management strategies." There ought to be a balance between mobility and community interaction and needs of the growing population fulfilled. To this end the development of infrastructure for the commuting public has to be developed first. Revamp and bring in new features to all existing systems especially railways to move people and freight. Create as was stated before, a proper transport hub centralized in shuch a way that distant communities are linked and connected. The recommendations, namely " Introduce new modal options or develop new transportation hubs or corridors when existing facilities cannot meet mobility or connectivity needs and Create institutional structures that support statewide, regional, and local mobility needs, building upon closer coordination between transportation, land use, and economic development decisions." Of the study ought to be implemented fully. References Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Census; University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Research, Projections of Florida Population by 2002. 2025 Florida Transportation Plan Prepublication edition December 16, 2005 Systems (WPI# 0510855) and Development of Agency Maintenance Repair and Rehabilitation(MR&R) Cost Data for Florida's Bridge Management System (BB879) (available online athttp://www.dot.state.fl.us/research-center/Completed_Maintenance.htm). PROJECT PLANNING MODELS FOR FLORIDA'S BRIDGEMANAGEMENT SYSTEM www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/policy/trends Florida Transportation Indicators at: www.indicators.cutr.usf.edu/ Also at the 2025 FTP website: www.ftp2025.com/ (under Resources) http://www.dot.state.fl.us/research-center/Completed_Maintenance.htm). Source: FDOT, Aviation Office (2002), Rail Office (2003), Florida Seaport Council Website (2003),Transport http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/systems/mspi/sisnplan.htm ation Statistics Office (2002), Census Bureau Website (2003) Florida Monitor Florida's Turnpike Enterprise.htm http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/sis/pdfs/annualupdatev8.pdf Read More