Assessment of the Terrorist Threat of ISIS and AQAP - Research Paper Example

 WMD Threat Assessment on AQAP and ISIS Terrorism is a major problem in the present global community. Many nations of the world are affected, some directly while others indirectly. Majority of the nations have come up strongly against terror groups and their acts of terrorism, while others give a blind eye or even support. According to the US State Department, acts of terrorism is depicted based on four elements namely: an act or a threat of violence, political objective, violence or threat of violence that is directed on civilians (civilians are the primary target) and lastly it is carry out by a supporting country or countries of terrorism. ISIL activities in Iraq and Syria and AQAP activities in Yemen are the two good examples of terrorist groups. Terrorist groups operate with specific objectives and motivations, which essentially dictate the degree and nature of their terror activities. Today, terror groups such as ISIL have become more sophisticated in the way they conduct their terror activities, a factor that raises fear of their possible use of Weapons of Mass Destruction. This becomes clear even the as one analyses their recent taking over of important national facilities in their respective countries and their outstanding financial positions. In this work we will explore the Background, structure, and origin of ISIS and AQAP terrorist organizations; their Motivations, goals, plans, and intentions and use the Information on their financial situation to asses if they have the economic resources to develop, buy, or steal WMD. Lastly, this work will analyze the possibility of these groups having the intention and capability to carry out a terrorist attack using chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon or device, including a crude WMD device. Background, structure, and origin of ISIS and AQAP terrorist organizations ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham ,formally referred as Islamic State of Iraq and al-Qa‘ida in Iraq was formed by Sunni extremist Abu Mus‘ab al-Zarqawi in April 2004. The formation of this group was immediately followed by a declaration of its allegiance to Usama Bin Ladin. Since its formation ISIS has been constantly targeting both the coalition forces and the civilians using sophisticated tactics like VBIEDs (vehicle-borne improvised explosives devices), hostage execution and suicide bombers. This has been used to mount up pressure on foreign companies and countries to leave Iraq, discourage Iraqis from supporting United states and the government of Iraqi and lastly to attract more cadre to its ranks. Al-Zarqawi’s was killed in June 2006 and in his place came Abu Ayyub al-Masri who changed it to Islamic State of Iraq in October the same year. With support from another Iraqi national called Abu ‘Umar al-Baghdadi, this new group sought to politicize the group’s terrorist actions and put an “Iraqi face” on their activities. In 2010, the leadership changed and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi assumed the top leadership following the death of both Umar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri. Under his leadership, the group continued undertaking high-profile terror attacks across Iraq. Isil expanded its ranks via prison breaks and incorporation of fighters welcomed from the Syrian conflict. In 2013, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi openly declared the group’s existence in Syria. All through its existence ISIL has had sharp disagreement with al-Qa‘ida o account of the ideological differences. This drift widens in the later years and culminated in early 2014 by Al-Qaida disowning the relationship that had existed since 2004. Isil responded by declaring al-Qa‘ida unfit for Usama Bin Ladin’s legacy and in turn stated its position as a better show of jihadists. In the mid June 2014, ISIL undertook major efforts that sought to overthrow Iraqi Government. During this period, the isil forces freed prisoners and gained access to more vehicles and weapons that could allow them carry on with their activities in Iraq and Syria. Another major happening of the same period was the establishment of Islamic caliphate that was named “Islamic State.” Following this establishment, ISIL called on all Muslims to throw their weight behind this group. The ISIL threats to the United States and its allied is more real than it has ever been. The Kentucky arrest of two ISIL affiliated Iraqi refugees in May 2011 is a good proof of the possible threat within the United States. Such is the case that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIL, cited the United States as the cause of the backlash in Syria and threatened an open confrontation (Nctc, 2015). AQAP (Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula) on the other hand is a Sunni extremist group that has found its strong presence in Yemen. This group has been blamed for the numerous sophisticated terrorist attacks. AQAP was established in January 2009 following a merger of two regional branches of the international Islamist network in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Under the leadership of a chief Ayman al-Zawahri, a former aide to Osama Bin Laden, this group has maintained its intention to attack foreigners, oil facilities and security forces while seeking to overthrow the Yemeni government and Saudi Monarchy and most important set up an Islamic caliphate. The most notable example of AQAP operations occurred when a Nigerian-born man called Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, under AQAP instructions attempted to blow aboard a Northwest Airlines flight by detonating and an explosive. This was followed closely by another attempted attack on 27th October 2010 in which explosives packages were sent to USA. The rise of AQAp followed the ousting of President Ali Abdullah Saleh from power in early 2012, creating a fractured political scene and room for the establishment of an insurgency in south Yemeni. AQAP majorly operates from Azzan, a mountainous base located in the Yemeni’s Shabwa province. Its operation extends to about 12 or more Yemen’s provinces, Sanaa, the Yemeni capital included. Within its operating zones, AQAP has gained a de factor regional control and administers with heavily armed militia and shariah courts. During its formation in 2009, its leader, Nasser al-Wahishi declared in the inaugural video that the group’s intention is to avenge its enemies “with blood and destruction,” and establish an Islamic Caliphate that will run under Sharia law. Later in 2012, another document made by the leadership expanded the objectives to include expulsion of the Christians and the Jews from the Arabian Peninsula and thus establish the Shari’ah rule and the Islamic Caliphate presently suspended by the apostate governments. While pursuing these objectives, AQAP supports a violent understanding of jihad and provides numerous ways through which Muslims can hold up its agendas. First, the Muslims are urged to report to the jihadists about the spies and presence of Christians, Jews and the major criminals. Additionally, Muslims are encouraged to maintain their hostility towards the infidels and raise children to love jihad. AQAP organizational structure basically comprises of four branches: the political branch headed by a leader who offers the overall direction, a military branch headed by a military chief who plans operational details. The other branches are the propaganda wing entitled with the duty of drawing new recruits and lastly the religious branch that justifies their attacks based on theological perspective and offer spiritual guidance (Nctc, 2015). Motivations, goals, plans, and intentions Terror group’s activities are usually influenced by particular ideologies and motivations. Such is the case that their objectives, especially with regard to the casualty rate play an important role when analyzing the motivation. Here, groups with non –religious goals and secular ideologies will often typically display highly discriminative and selective acts of violence to gain particular political goal. This generally requires such groups to keep the causality at the least possible to attain their objective. All these are done to avoid any backlash that might pose serious damages to the organization, and interfere with their face of rational group with legitimate grievances. This is not the case with both ISIL and AQAP who show no intention of limiting their attacks or reducing the danger of undermining external economic and political support. ISIL and AQAP depict more of millenarian and religiously oriented groups as opposed to the previous discussed groups. This is validated by their apocalyptic basis that encourages their disregard for sacredness of human life. To them more causality makes their achievement even better. Furthermore, death of people of their religion makes little impact since they believe such causalities will enjoy the benefits of the afterlife. According to these groups, non-believers death, weather deliberately or as a collateral damage, merit death, and murdering them is simply taken as a moral duty. ISIL has been on the spotlight in the recent past for murdering scores of people, especially those of different faith. Additionally, these groups have been involved in killing myriad of foreigners irrespective of their affiliations and professions. The groups financing Study made on this groups, have clearly shown ISIS and AQAP as well organized terror groups, more lethal than Al-Qaida with an effective management structure. The structure includes a department s such as finance, local governance, arms, recruitment and military operations. These groups operate like the national government in regions it control offering services like water and electricity, police service, founding religious courts and schools, operating training camps and levying taxes. The two groups finance their activities from either the direct or indirect sources. One report by from the U.S. State Department, has established the two major sources of AQAP funding as: kidnap for ransom and robbery operations. In one of the Nasser al-Wahishi letter to the Algerian allies, he is said o have indicated that most of their battle expenses were paid for by money acquired from spoils; most of which came from a year long hostages operation in Yemen. The other source of funding comes from donations made by likeminded persons, most of who come from Saudi Arabia. This is evidenced by the 2009 AQAP video in which al-Shihri, the group deputy leader, appeared appealing to the Saudi Arabians for donation. Another report established that IS boasted of a war chest amounting to about $2 billion dollars, acquired from taxes, sale of antiquities and oil on black market, seized bank assets, ransom for hostages theft of assets and property from its victims , donation from rich Gulf donors and earnings from Muslim charities and Zakat(tithing) The groups threat of using CBR and WDM weapons Information based on recent analysis on ISIS points to the idea that this group is seeking materials that would help produces weapons of mass destruction. To better analyze the danger paused by such escapade, we are forced to make an assessment not only on whether such destructive materials have been obtained, but also find the intention, historical records, financial ability and available expertise. By analyzing these factors collectively we will be able to assess the group’s threat of using WMD and CBR (chemical Biological and radioactive) weapons. In a recent address, the UK interior minister Mrs. Theresa May cautioned that if the ISIS is given space to consolidate its territory the group will potentially develop CBR or even WMD. Today the counterterrorism forces focus much on the group’s potentiality to create rudimentary forms of CBR, but the clear warning of ISIS possible employment of unconventional combat tactics still remain strong. This fear, regrettably, is no longer a sheer likelihood even as reports have it that the Iraqi Ministry of Defense at one point acknowledged ISIS forces usage of chlorine gas, although with little impact. Other proceedings worryingly acknowledge the ISIS intention to develop and obtain some kinds of WDM. For instance, in 2014, report from reliable sources established a possible fear that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria militants might have developed a nuclear weapon using the radioactive material taken from the Mosul University in Iraq. It is said that about 40Kg of Uranium kept for scientific research was stolen from Mosul University in Iraq, a claim that was later linked to the ISIS group. In latter written to the United Nations, Mohamed Ali Alhakim, and the Iraq’s UN Ambassador told the UN secretary general "Terrorist groups have seized control of nuclear material at the sites that came out of the control of the state.” It is claimed that the seized nuclear material, notwithstanding the limited quantity, can help terrorists groups (those having the necessary expertise) separately, or in combination with similar materials to carry out the terrorist acts. This report followed another earlier report in which fighters of this group were blamed for seizing a dismantled factory of chemical weapons at Al Muthanna complex. For this, experts quickly brushed off the potential danger of the seized facility indicating that the seized uranium compounds depicted no security hazard and that they were unsuitable production of chemical weapons. Apart from focusing on the technical criteria, proper threat assessment demands that other relevant aspects such as the financial capability, intention, historical records and availability of expertise be taken into consideration. Drawing from particular accounts, for instance, the terrorist’s group’s network is alleged to posses close to $2 million in assets; this includes the oil fields in Iraq that potentially gives the group a million dollars each day. This is good money that if used as intended the group could easily acquire the necessary materials for developing this weapons of mass destruction. When talking of the expertise, both ISIS and AQAP militants operate in regions comprising nations that are known to have both produced and employed weapons of mass destruction at one point. The most known weapons are the chemical and biological, with both Syria and Iraq noted for developing either of the stated weapons in the previous 25 years (Counterjihadreport, 2014). With the current progressive collapse of these two countries, there is increasing fear of the terrorists groups recruiting chemical and biological weapon experts. As it is today, there is no evidence of the necessary and military and scientific know-how among the ISIS group that would achieve a mass-casualty attack, however, a low impact CBR weapon attack is certainly accessible by the ISIS Militants. There are also reports suggesting the usage of basic chemicals by terrorist in Iraq. One report by experts points to the fact that in 2005, the ISIS, which by then had a different name, used chlorine gas bombing Abu Ghraib market. Similar attack was reported of insurgents who attacked Ramadi and Fallujah in 2007. Even in the midst of the high-level brutality witnessed from this groups, there is still fear that one day they may resort to use WDM. May be the best question to ask here is “what is the likelihood of such an attack?” different experts have argued this point citing particular drives. One such argument has it that as al-Qaida and ISIS rivalry escalate with regard to who is the leader of the global jihadists groups, the latter may be carry out an “impressive” non-conservative attack to gain the sole leader position of the terrorism movement and thus gain with regard to financing , recruitment and propaganda. In addition, as suggested, the ISIS is likely to face militarily superior forces drawn from across to the world to form the broadest possible coalition army. Consequently, the ISIS may be tempted to use rudimentary forms of CBR weapons so as to increase the military and political cost when it comes to international intervention. Based on the information presented above, much wouldn’t have changed for the cases that: A Yemeni military raid in a small village outside Sanaa uncovered a crude lab where AQAP had been able to cultivate small quantities of Anthrax spores. In another case, the Iraq forces following their successful retake of Tikrit cited a possibility that ISIS had discovered a workable formula for anthrax. Even with these report, still there is no concrete evidence of ISIS successful cultivation of anthrax spores. In addition a recent theft of spent nuclear fuel rods from a nuclear plant in Japan and the disappearance of an aging Russian tactical nuclear warhead from Crimea, formerly part of Ukraine, all have their link to either of the groups. Such is the case that this example would only strengthen the idea that the groups had intention to use CBR weapons while fighting their so called “enemies.” What else could be the reason for opting to cultivate anthrax spores or working a formula for anthrax if not to use it in their terrorism activities? In the same manner an analysis of the group’s intention for stealing nuclear fuel rods or an aging Russian tactical nuclear warhead yields nothing less of their desire to use it for developing weapons of mass destruction. Based on the present ISIS and AQAP activities there is every reason to believe that these teams would do anything within their disposal to harm to not only harm their enemies but also prove their Jihadists ideology. In conclusion, ISIS and AQAP are a real threat today both to the nations that they are based and the international community. These groups unlike their predecessor al-Qaida depict worrisome capabilities. Based on the various information collected and their past activities there is no doubt that if not curtailed these groups can cause serious damages. A critical analysis into these groups’ activities reveals strong evidence of the group’s potentiality to develop CBR or even WMD. This is made even worse when considering the group’s financial capability, intention, historical records and availability of expertise to carry out these activities. Such is the case that ISIS and AQAP, which both operate in nations with dysfunctional governments; posses much support and may easily access materials necessary for developing these weapons. Iraq and Syria are two nations with historical links to use of CBR, with the former nation being feared for developing nuclear weapons during Sad am Hussein reign. Additionally, the two nations are believed to be having some storage of chemicals useful for developing WMD not to mention the possible expertise that could easily be bought knowing that the groups have huge financial base. The group’s posse’s large sums of money from the huge oil fields they control, the huge ransom they take from their victims and money other activities such as zakat, donations and robbery activities they engage in. it is on this ground that both groups pose serious threat anti-terrorism nations. Reference Counterjihadreport.com,. (2014). ISIS threat assessment | The Counter Jihad Report. Retrieved 8 April 2015, from http://counterjihadreport.com/tag/isis-threat-assessment/ Nctc.gov,. (2015). National Counterterrorism Center | Groups. Retrieved 8 April 2015, from http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/aqi_isil.html Nctc.gov,. (2015). National Counterterrorism Center | Groups. Retrieved 8 April 2015, from http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/aqap.html . Read More