Where Sovereign Autocracy of Penin Military Will Occur - Case Study Example

In this paper, I develop a plan of how to analyze the intelligence problem that has been posted by the Federal Republic of Ysla by The Sovereign Autocracy of Penin.

Overview of the case

The case involves a threat from SAP which is currently at war with the Federal Republic of Ysla. SAP has employed air reconnaissance, special operations, and air bombings against FRY as strategizes for a military attack. FRY’s topography, however, does not favor the SAP military and only two targets are vulnerable to SAP’s amphibious offensive, and its naval attacks can only extend to 250 nautical miles.  

Analytical plan on how SAP military invasion will occur

The analysis plan to determine how SAP will launch its attack follows a strategic approach that involves the intelligence cycle. The plan involves the identification of the problem statement that defines the question, ‘How will SAP launch its attack on FRY?’ A planning stage then follows the problem statement and involves the identification of key players in the entire process of protecting the FRY from SAP’s threat and the role of such players. The players in the case are experts in communication technology and communication process, informants, analysts, and decision-makers. The next stage in the analysis involves the collection of data that relates to SAP’s potential mode of attack and explores such information as their potential targets, the vulnerability of the targets, and the potential of the enemy’s arsenals to hit the targets from their different bases. The collected information is then analyzed; using i2 Analyst’s Notebook, compiled and communicated to the relevant authority (IBM, n.d). The analysis process considers information such as the appointment of a marine major to command the Third SAP Corps, the SAP government’s directive to ban visits to its coast, and reports that SAP attacks will be made near Eyer. Further information indicates increased shipping near Banes, military movements towards the northwest, and deployed crafts at Haba. Analyzing these pieces of information using i2 Analyst’s Notebook, whose functional features include visualization of intelligence information, analysis, and communication of the intelligence, identifies SAP’s focus on the Port Eyer region with movements closer to the port and a base at Banes. The fact that only Mia and Eyer are vulnerable to SAP, that a marine has been appointed to head the Third SAP Corps, and that SAP’s naval initiatives can reach Eyer from Haba identifies marine, sub-marine, or missile offensive as the primary mode of attack. This is because the two SAP bases, especially Haba, are strategic for accessing the FRY’s vulnerable ports through the sea (Clark, 2010; Folker, 2000).

Analytical plan on where SAP military will occur

The intelligence cycle is similarly applicable in analyzing the situation to determine where an SAP attack will occur. The analysis begins by developing the problem statement in the form, ‘Where will the attack occur?’ The same parties are used in the intelligence process that identifies relevant information for analysis to identify an area of attack. i2 Analyst’s Notebook is used to locate different possible areas from which attacks can be launched and target areas for the attacks, and distances and logistics such as the arsenal’s potential to reach different targets. This identifies the rational place from which the attacks can be launched and the target location. The available information such as SAP naval forces potential that is limited to 250 nautical miles, realignment to Haba as well as Banes, the appointment of a marine general to command the SAP military team, and vulnerability of only Eyer and Mia, identifies Port Eyer as the target of attacks from Haba or a base close to Haba. This is because the two locations are placed, strategically, for easy attacks from SAP (Marine Corps, 2007; Folker, 2000; Pherson & Heur, 2011).

Analytical plan on whether SAP is planning to use deception, diversion, or neither

The intelligence cycle is similarly suitable for analysis to determine whether SAP is planning to use deception, diversion, or neither in relation to the attack. The analysis begins with the determination of the question, ‘Is SAP planning to use deception, diversion, or none of the techniques?’ With the same personnel for data collection and analysis, the cycle reviews information such as SAP’s military deployment at both Haba and Banes and intelligence sources that SAP may launch a slight attack at Mia before their main target at Eyer, and the analysis identifies a diversion approach to attack (Clark, 2010; Folker, 2000; Pherson & Heur, 2011).

Conclusion

The intelligence cycle offers the best plan for analyzing the problem towards identification of how and where the SAP offensive will occur as well as their planned strategy. Implementing the plan to analyze identifies marine or submarine offensive, or launched missiles from a base near Haba. The main offensive targets Port Eyer though attacks on Mia or any other location may be used by SAP for diversion.