Systems Thinking in Climate Change - Essay Example

Systems Thinking in Climate Change Course Professor’s Name School City/State Date Systems Thinking in Climate Change Introduction Systems’ thinking is critical in developing solutions to sustainability challenges. Systems thinking is both a science and art that involves making inferences about the behavioral patterns of elements in an underlying structure. Systems thinking changes how we perceive the problems that we encounter as a global community. It helps us view the problems we are currently facing from a global perspective because all the elements of the problem are interconnected in one way or another. The systems’ thinking approach has been utilized in many fields including medicine research, public health, strategic planning and management, business, education and leadership among others with varying degrees of success. This paper seeks to analyze how a systems approach can be established in solving one of the biggest universal problems that we are currently facing: climate change. Systems Thinking in Climate Change Climate change is a global phenomenon whose effects is being felt and will be felt by the entire universe. Changes in climate affect every single aspect of our daily activities. Agriculture is heavily influenced by climate and changes in climate can have adverse effects on the global industry. It is expected that in the next 50 years or so, there will be increased drought, declining water supplies, flooding in coastal areas, insect outbreaks, and substantial decreases in agricultural yields all over the world. Human health is also bound to be impacted by climate change leading to more cases of radiation-related diseases. Other effects of climate change will include the destruction of infrastructure due to extreme levels of heat and constant rise in sea levels resulting in flooding. Ecosystems and Fisheries will also be heavily compromised by the adverse changes in climate change (Black, 2010; Pallant et al., n.d). These effects are and will be happening on a global scale. It is, therefore, imperative that the world and other subsequent stakeholders come together and develop new methods of solving the climate change problem. The governments have made great strides in trying to deal with global climate change but still these efforts seem redundant in the face of the daunting effects we are currently facing. Systems’ thinking has become one of the most prominent ways that the governments are looking towards to help them stem the problem of global climate change before it becomes too late (Pallant, et al, n.d.). The negative impacts of climate change are made worse due to inefficiency of the policy makers to arrive at concrete decisions relating to the problem. The decision-making environment is very complex making the decision-making process to be counter-intuitive and counter-productive. Bounded rationality dictates that even when policy makers have the best intentions and information, most of these decisions do not result in optimum outcomes as anticipated by the decision makers (Maani, 2011). The globe’s climate is an actual system with millions of sub-structures that influence one another every single second of the day. The earth’s climate system comprises of the air, the land, human beings, wildlife and the oceans. All these facets of the earth’s climate are constantly interacting and influence each other in one way or another. Human beings are the predominant players in this system and are the primary cause of all the troubles the globe is facing pertaining to the global changes in climate (Black, 2010; Center for Eco literacy, 2012). Systems’ thinking allows the policy makers to view the outcomes of climate change as a result of the interaction between the various elements or sub-systems described in the previous paragraph. This approach to problem solving helps us to understand that the causes of success and failure are contained in the system itself and the interactions between its various sub-systems. A system problem is one that has its origins from the interactions of the sub-systems which are highly inter-connected and inter-dependent (Stevens, et al., 2012) Climate change could be described as the biggest system problem that has ever faced the world. Almost every human activity is connected to the climate including economic and social activities. All these activities are dependent on the use of fossil fuels and greenhouse gases that affect the climate. At the same time, nearly everything we need to sustain and enrich our lives is provided and affected by climate change. Due to the dire situation that the world is currently facing, policy makers and governments need to solve many problems rather than trying to fix one problem at a time. They need the resolve to tackle interrelated challenges at the same time in order for the entire problem to dissipate. The best approach is to address the entire problem as a system rather than focusing on the symptoms. We need to shift our focus from trying to solve one problem at a time because there is no single bullet that can stop climate change and its effects. Therefore, the approach needs to b multi-faceted (Lans, 2013). A tentative solution to the climate change issue should not create more problems for the world. With this in mind there needs to be a complete overhaul on the processes we use to address the issue. There need to design new policies, new business frameworks, innovative technology and new ways of relating with one another. Taking a systemic approach to climate change will involve identifying critical points in the system and activating them. These leverage points can create a significant impact on the mitigation of climate change and enabling communities all around the world to transition to more sustainable and renewable forms of energy. Systems thinking will enable communities and governments to develop data systems that can help them develop comprehensive and well-informed policies on the use of land and other natural resources. The approach will also ensure the creation of sustainable strategies to deal with the management of water, waste, and energy on a global scale (Maani, 2011). Other than climate change, these strategies can also help in boosting the economy of local communities as well as women empowerment. They can also lead to the creation of innovative financing systems that can lead to the reduction of energy expenses in households thereby significantly improving the lives of individuals. Systems Thinking Tools There are various system thinking tools that can be used for climate change adaptation and mitigation. These tools can be grouped into five large categories. These tools include: 1. Problem framing and scoping tools These tools help the policy makers understand and agree on the scope of the climate change problem. Problems involving climate change adaptation are usually multi-faceted and shrouded in mystery. There are many instances whereby the problem symptoms are confused for the root causes of the problem. These tools are utilized at the beginning of problem-solving. A potential pitfall for the utilization of these tools is the hidden agendas that some stakeholders might have. The tools include the Iceberg model that is used in understanding the four levels of thinking. The affinity method is utilized when the decision makers are trying to brainstorm anonymously. Behavior over time model is used for pattern analysis while the rich pictures are used to understand the context of the problem. 2. Qualitative/ Conceptual Tools Conceptual tools are used in the identification of the drivers that are instigating the problem. The tools will also help the policy makers in understanding how these drivers are interconnected. These tools are used to gain a systematic understanding of the climate change system as well as the interconnectedness of the problem drivers. One major pitfall that arises when using these tools is the lack of hard evidence that might make some policy makers uncomfortable. Examples of qualitative/conceptual tools include: a). soft system methodology- whereby the policy makers identify the scope of the problem and the boundaries within which climate change adaptation operates in. b). Cognitive mapping-this tool links the different concepts or elements associated with global climate change. This linking will provide the policy makers with the complete picture when it comes to climate change and help them address the issue as a whole rather than solving small symptoms one at a time. c). Casual top modeling- this particular tool will help the global stakeholders to map the causal relationships between the different sub-systems in climate change. d). Feedback-assists in the identification of both negative and positive dynamics. e). Leverage-helps the stakeholders to discover the major intervention points that will have the greatest positive impact in curbing the rate of climate change. 3. Quantitative (Probabilistic) Tools Quantitative tools are used in quantifying the outcomes of the decisions that the policy makers will make. They are also used in determining how key variables in the system will behave once the decisions have been implemented. These tools are essential because they are the avenue through which hard data can be presented to the policy makers and select stakeholders. This data can then be used in the formulation of policies and decisions by the decision makers. f). Bayesian Belief Networks-The most appropriate time to use this tool is when decision making involves group modeling. g). System Dynamics (Stock flow modeling) - The tool is applied when dynamic modeling on non-linear feedback is being used. 4. Scenario Thinking/planning This stage of systems thinking involves the forecasting of plausible scenarios and possible futures when certain decisions are made and implemented. The tools involved in scenario thinking are used when the variables in the problem make the entire situation uncertain. In such instances as addressing climate change adoption, there is no historical data and there is a prevalence of untested assumptions. Major pitfalls of scenario thinking include erroneously using the outcomes from the scenario as accurate predictions of actual events. The policy makers might also be confronted by certain scenarios that have inconclusive outcomes. Tools used include scenario planning and microworlds. The latter tool is a simulation model that is used in the testing of alternative futures. Scenario planning utilizes group think in order to visualize the alternative futures if certain decisions are implemented. 5. Organizational Learning Tools The main purpose of these tools is to enhance the decision making capacity of the teams tasked with developing tentative solutions to the problem of climate change. The tools are essential in generating collective intelligence which is a prerequisite for the development of proper strategies. These organizational learning tools will ensure that shared comprehension of the problem at hand is developed making consensus and common vision easier to achieve. The tools include mental models, collaborative conceptual modeling and learning labs. Learning labs involves collective learning and building consensus amongst the decision makers. Mental models help the group of decision makers to understand each other’s motivations, values and assumptions in regard to climate change and stopping the problem. The collaborative conceptual modeling provides the foundation for the integration of the quantitative and qualitative systems tools (Newell & Proust, 2012). References Black, R. (2010). Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based for Local Governments. Center for Eco literacy. (2012). Explore Systems Thinking. Retrieved on 22/8/2015 from www.ecoliteracy.org/nature-our-teacher/systems-thinking.com Lans, D. (2014, September 19th). How Systems Thinking can Impact Climate Change. Retrieved on 22/8/2015 from https://www.clintonfoundation.org/blog/2014/09/19/how-systems-thinking-can-impact-climate-change Maani, K. (2011). Learning Lab for Sustainability, Theory and Case Study. UNESCO Biosphere Reserves, International System Dynamics Society Conference, Washington, DC. Maani, K. (2013). Decision Making for Climate Change Adaptation: A Systems Thinking Approach. Newell, B., & Proust, K. (2012). Introduction to Collaborative Conceptual Modeling. Pallant, A., Lee, H., Pryputniewicz, S. (n.d.). Systems Thinking and Modeling Climate Change. Stevens, H., Dufty, N., Waters, S., & Giles, G. (2012). Sea No Evil, Hear no Evil-Community Engagement on Adaptation to Sea Level Change. Read More