Emergency Management - Assignment Example

Running Head: Emergency Emergency Management Terrorism, as d previously in this is the most obvious example of a manmade event. Terrorism, however, because of its very nature, is viewed differently than other events, manmade or natural. That said, can one ever approach terrorism from a risk management perspective? If so, how? Terrorism, though not new, has gained heightened importance in the years since 9/11, particularly in the urban setting. Institutions both public and private have mobilized resources to prevent a recurrence not only of suicide plane crashes but of gas poisoning in trains, bombing of buildings and conveyances, and other similar terrorist acts. Unlike other man-made disasters that are results of mishaps or oversight and may thus be prevented by reasonable care and diligence, terrorist acts are intentionally designed to avoid detection and overcome countermeasures. “Terrorists posing a significant threat are both rational and intelligent” (Woo 2009:103). Preventive or mitigating measures significantly lessen the risks or consequences of terrorist threats. This is the position of this brief discussion, that the risk of terrorism may be mitigated by the application of risk management methods that are directed specifically to meet terrorist threats. At times the attempt of terrorists to avoid detection succeeds, not because the authorities do not have the capability, but because they fail to exert the necessary vigilance. According to no less than President Obama about a failed plot to detonate a plane destined for Detroit, “The U.S. government had the information scattered throughout the system to potentially uncover this plot and disrupt the attack…this was a failure to connect and understand the intelligence that we already had.” (Bain, 2010). Risk management methods have been successfully integrated to emergency management protocols in some countries (Hodges, 2000:7). There are likewise risk management methods that are currently used to control the risk of terrorism. Willis, et al (2005) describes two approaches to estimating terrorism risk in urban areas. One uses population-based metrics, a type of simple risk indicator which is based on the established logical link between population and/or population density in urban areas, and the risk of terrorism (Willis, et al., 2005:21). The other approach is the use of event-based models, one of which is the RMS Terrorism Risk Model. Event-based models are anchored on detailed analysis of specific attack scenarios and their consequences. The RMS model, originally developed for the insurance industry to assess macroterrorism risks, provides an indication of the risk of threat, vulnerability and consequences (Willis, et al., 2005:25). According to Brown and Cox (2011:196), however, traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are generally ineffective for terrorism. This is because terrorists actively research and decide on options apparent to them, which may not necessarily be the same information and viewpoint seen by defenders, thus the latters’ assessments would lead them to conclusions different from those of the terrorists. First, terrorists do not act randomly, so probabilistic models based on random events are not responsive to the situation. Secondly, PRA may be occasionally successful for single incidents but fail to consider that terrorism is supported by an interconnected infrastructure of thousands of cells and thousands of targets (Brown & Cox, 2011:203). Viewing terrorism as an intelligent and systematic, rather than probabilistic, phenomenon is espoused by others. There are three mechanisms of terrorism, according to Clarke (2002), namely: (1) The emergence of an individual or the formation of a group that has cause to resort to terrorist action. The principal cause is to command recognition, with revenge, retribution, jealousy, and criminality as merely secondary. (2) The creation of the opportunity or social justification that gives rise to the terrorist act. The opportunity for terrorism may be either spontaneous or planned. (3) The availability of the means and methods for a terrorist act to be pursued with reasonable chances for success, and sufficient to overcome the expected response. An understanding of the elements and mechanisms attendant to terrorism allows the identification and assessment of their indicators, making it possible to adopt pre-emptive measures against them. This is the broader scope of risk management, which includes the identification, assessment, and prioritization of targeted risks, to which resources are applied in a systematic and economical way, to minimize, monitor, and mitigate the likelihood of an adverse event or its impact (Hubbard, 2009:46). The use of risk assessment and management methods is not entirely ineffective; the key is to premise the methods on more realistic assumptions and adjust the assessment criteria to those more responsive to terrorism. Brown and Cox (2011:204) recommend making more robust risk management decisions that assume the attacker may know information the defenders may not know. They also recommend changing the focus from estimation by experts about where the greatest risk lies, to making specific investments in strengthening interconnected defensive infrastructures to meet the threat of a similarly interconnected terrorist infrastructure. Reference List Bain, B. (2010, January 7). President calls for urgent improvements to anti-terrorism efforts. Federal Computer Week. Retrieved from http://fcw.com/Articles/2010/01/07/Web-Watch-list-system-changes.aspx Brown, G.G. & Cox, L.A. Jr. (2010). How Probabilistic Risk Assessment Can Mislead Terrorism Risk Analysts. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 31(2), 196-204 Clarke, M.C. (2002) “The Use of Risk Management Tools in Countering the Terrorist Threat.” Accessed 8 October 2011 from M.E.T.T.S. Pty. Ltd. Website http://www.metts.com.au Hodges, A. (2000). Emergency risk management. Risk Management, 2(4), 7-18. Hubbard, D (2009) The Failure of Risk Management: Why Its Broken and How to Fix It. John Wiley & Sons. Willis, H.H.; Morral, A.R.; Kelly, T.K.; & Medby, J.J. (2005) “Estimating Terrorism Risk.” Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy. Sta. Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Woo, G. (2009) “Terrorism Threat Assessment and Management” Defence Against Terrorism Review. 2(1):101-116 2. We have concluded that natural disasters are becoming more frequent and are increasing in intensity. What is the most cost effective way of addressing this issue? A natural disaster is defined as “a natural hazard that results in loss of human lives, property, or natural resource degradation and that the system being impacted cannot recover from such a natural disaster without external support” (Shaw, et al., 2010:79). By its very nature, there is a great deal of uncertainty in anticipating when a disaster will strike and how severe is the risk to lives and property, particularly to the poorer segments of society (Brouwer, et al., 2006:18). This discussion argues that the financial costs attendant to disaster anticipation and preparedness will always be substantial, but this is necessary in order to realize a lower cost particularly in loss of life. In assessing disaster risk, Sandman (2007) explains that experts systematically overestimate the risk when the hazard (danger to life and property) is high and outrage (fear and panic) is low, while the public focuses on outrage and ignores the hazard. A holistic appreciation of disaster risk should be the sum of both hazard and outrage, so a responsive disaster relief program should address both. For cost-effectiveness, specific measures must be taken to address specific disasters where the chances of such disasters happening are known to be high in particular areas. In Japan, the World Bank (WB) concluded that the decades-long investment in seismic safety and tsunami preparedness were instrumental in saving countless more lives during the Tohoku disaster. These investments included those that offered “the highest value for money, namely, weather and climate information systems, strengthening early warning and emergency preparedness, linking these systems to trigger for early action, creating safety nets for vulnerable populations…and most importantly, strengthening national and local institutions.” (WB, 2011) Technological developments lower the costs of disaster preparedness. Catastrophe modelling is now aided by free and publicly available visual mapping, geo-coding, and satellite imagery systems, the most popular of which is Google Earth. These services provide detailed information on specific property locations through the internet, and link these with particular geodata from various sources to present the picture of a possible forthcoming event. Such catastrophe modelling was used to create scenarios for Hurricane Rita on its approach to Houston (Voelker, 2007:38). Geographical location can be vital in determining possible damage and loss as a result of tornadoes, hurricanes, drought, flood, forest fires, or tsunami (Chitakornkijsil, 2010:99). Unfortunately, disaster risk management are seldom mainstreamed in developmental plans, since preventive measures increase costs, not profits. From the cost angle, it makes more sense to rely on external aid supplies and reconstruction measures after a disaster has struck because these are cost-free transfers. Donors respond more to reconstruction efforts rather than preventive measures, and besides, there is the inherent difficulty in predicting extreme natural events (Garatwa & Bollin, 2002:15). There is, however, a strong link between cost and benefit in disaster risk management, when viewed from the economic, social and political level (Garatwa & Bollin, 2002:36). A relatively localized natural disaster can have the effect of snowballing and affecting the wider economy. For instance, flooding causes a tremendous decline in economic activity in terms of loss of labour hours and income for workers. Farm produce could not be delivered to market due to road conditions. Food prices increased as a result, due to the shortage of fresh fruits and vegetables. In the meantime, numerous loans from banks and microlenders are in risk of being defaulted (Vermaak & Niekerk, 2004:570; Ross, 1983:201). One of the most cost-effective ways of preparing for natural disasters is through disaster risk financing and insurance (WB, 2011). Part of the costs for rebuilding and rehabilitation are borne by the insurance firms (Garatwa & Bollin, 2002:13). While the insurance industry serves as safety net during disasters, the cost is taking a toll on the industry itself. There is general uncertainty in calculating this type of risk and pricing the appropriate insurance products. The series of recent hurricanes had been the most expensive in history (Hurricane Katrina registered insured losses of $43.6 billion), contributing to much of the uncertainty (Bassett, 2008:21). It is little wonder that despite preparedness efforts for Katrina, response was poorly inadequate (Huppert & Sparks, 2006:1884). There is a great advantage in being able to assess which disasters have the highest risk of occurrence in a locality, as well as obtaining the necessary insurance coverage. Ultimately, however, disaster preparedness will necessarily entail substantial investment in technology, training, and logistics, for both prevention and response/rehabilitation. The primary concern is the prevention of injury and loss of life, which costs are essentially immeasurable. Reference List Bassett, E. (2008) “Disaster, economy impacting risk management.” Fort Worth Business Press, 11/17/2008, 20(45):21 Chitakornkijsil, P. (2010) “Disaster and Risk Management in a Global World.” International Journal of Organizational Innovation, Fall, 3(2):97-113 Garatwa, W. & Bollin, C. (2002) Disaster Risk Management. Eschborn: Deutsche Gesellshaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH Brouwer, R., Akter, S., Brander, L., & Haque, E. (2007). Socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: a case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 27(2), 313-326. Huppert, H. E., Stephen, R., & Sparks, J. (2006). Extreme natural hazards: Population growth, globalization and environmental change. Philosophical Transactions: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 364(1845), 1875-1888. Ross, L. (1983). Flood control policy in China: The policy consequences of natural disasters. Journal of Public Policy, 3(2), 209-231 Sandman, P. (2007). Understanding the risk: What frightens rarely kills. Nieman Reports, 61, 1. Retrieved from http://psandman.com/articles/NiemanReports.pdf Shaw, R., Pulhin, J.M., & Pereira, J.J. (2010) Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: Issues and Challenges. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited. Read More