Established Competitors for a Share of National Resources - Essay Example

Module GBN Scenario Development Template This template was filled out by My Scenario Steps Step Articulation of the focal issue or strategic decision (up to 3 years out) that the scenarios are to illuminate for the education sector: The education sector replaces printed textbooks with their electronic counterparts. Step 2: Time horizon for the scenario, which is the number of years that the scenario will cover: 10 Years Step 3: Actors that populate the competitive position of the education sector worldwide. Present Alliances 1. The government 2. The parents association 3. The private sector Present Customers 1. Local students 2. International students 3. Members of the adult education programs Established Competitors for a share of national resources 1. The health sector 2. The industrial sector 3. The domestic and international security sectors Potential Entrants 1. Online education programs 2. Use of audio books instead of text-based electronic books 3. International school systems Present Substitutes 1. Printed books 2. Handwritten notebooks 3. Typed notes given to students by teachers. Scenario Framework Step 4: Conditions that will shape the adoption of information technology by the education sector within the next 10 years. 1. Young people will always need to be educated. 2. The government will always have a central role to play in the education of its citizens. 3. There will always be a need for change in policy and structure to align the education sector with the prevailing conditions and needs. Step 5: Select the driving forces outside the organization (trends, events and issues) that are shaping the future. Trends ("more" or "less") as scenario driving forces that describe probable futures: 1. The availability of national resources to buy the equipment required to take advantage of the highly developed information technology. 2. The urgency by which stakeholders perceive the need to embrace information technology as a central tool in the education sector will also determine the feasibility of the scenario. 3. The short-term and long-term effects of using information technology as the only source of reading materials in schools are also likely factors. Events that could happen, and influence the adoption of information technology in the education sector: 1. The government may stop funding the use of printed books in schools, since they are said to be less durable and more polluting than their electronic counterparts. 2. Publishers may refuse to embrace the idea of digital publishing due to concerns about piracy and the wellbeing of the industry. 3. The cost of owning technology keeps getting lower, putting managers in a dilemma on when to adopt the use of information technology in schools. Issues that the education sector must consider before embracing the use of electronic books as the only textbooks: 1. Are the new forms of reading materials sustainable to make the investment worthwhile in the long run? 2. Will emerging technologies pose a threat to the efficiency and effectiveness of pre-existing ones? 3. Will information technology turn out to have negative effects on health or the cognitive ability of students? 4. When is the right time to implement these changes? Step 6: Driving forces (from step 5) that are both highly significant in their impact and uncertain in their outcome: Force Direction A to Direction B: 1. There will be no funds to buy printed books anymore. 2. Stakeholders think that now is the time to implement use of electronic textbooks and phase out printed books. 3. In the long-term, electronic books will be economical and environmentally friendly. 4. The government passes policy and signs conventions that require minimum usage of paper in the learning process. 5. Publishers come up with new ways to prevent piracy and adopt digital printing as an alternative to paper printing. 6. Information technology prices stabilize, and innovation reduces to offer people time to utilize what has been developed. 7. The education sector does pilot studies and confirms the sustainability of using information technology. 8. Emerging technologies are backward compatible with existing ones and the sector can adopt information technology without worrying about future trends. 9. Scientific research confirms that information technology is not harmful to health and enhances cognitive ability of students due to readily available knowledge. 10. The education sector decides that there is no better time to implement the project than now, starting with the students currently in school. Step 7: Build scenario logics that vary according to different outcomes for two of the most critical uncertainties. 1. There will be no funds to buy printed books anymore. 2. The government passes policy and signs conventions that require minimum usage of paper in the learning process. Scenario Logics: Scenario logic A: The condition at in the Middle East may get worse, which means that governments will spend too much on purchasing oil such that they will have to look for options. The government will invest in long-term strategies that will reduce the country’s dependency on oil. Among these strategies is to make the country less dependent on paper, and less money will be available for all paper-based industries. Scenario logic B: The Middle East situation will improve, and oil prices will decrease; there will be no need for the government to take measures to reduce oil consumption. Scenario logic C: Global leaders will come to an agreement that the environment should be conserved at all costs, and signatory countries will be required to implement the use of digital printing instead of paper based printing. Scenario logic D: There will be the discovery of another alternative to paper that does not require adoption of digital printing. Step 8: Scenario Titles A: Oil is gold B: Back to normal C: Save the planet D: Paper replaced Step 9: Elaborate one of the four scenario spaces or logics into a complete story that shows how that scenario could plausibly emerge from the present. Paper Replaced Following a five-year intensive research at Sample Laboratories, scientists have come up with a polymer that could act as a replacement for newsprint paper as the new medium for printing. It is fully recyclable, eliminating the need for the education sector to adopt the use of costly information technology as a medium for printing, teaching and learning. The polymer has been tried in several schools and printing presses and has been found to have similar qualities with paper for the retention of ink. However, this is not what makes the new polymer unique; it is its ability to be reused once the user has had enough of the printed material. According to Sample Laboratories, the ink printed on the polymer can be extracted after a period of up to 30 years, diluted in specified ratios, and reused. Therefore, unlike information technology that requires the education sector to readjust to a new form of teaching and learning, researchers have come up with a new material for doing things the old way, but now more sustainably than ever. Several stakeholders in the education sector have already recommended the discovery; however, they have warned institutions against using the polymer in its exclusivity. Since it is in the early stages of adoption, they recommend its simultaneous use with paper and digital based materials. It is likely that institutions may adopt the new technology even before the governments authorize its use in the education sector, especially since regulators have declared it safe for use. Sample Laboratories have encouraged the use of the paper substitute by giving enticing offers to their customers; including discounts for institutions that buy the new paper in bulk. In addition, the firm is giving ink freely to anyone who purchases their invention, which is accompanied by a 10-year warranty. Sample Laboratories are also offering the polymer cleaning solvent for anyone with the desire to recycle their product after a short period of usage. This means that the only cost that customers have to incur is that of buying the polymer. However, with the increasing demand for the new invention, it is unlikely that Sample Laboratory, with its limited resources, can keep up with supplying the polymer for the whole country, or world, if their product is accepted for widespread usage. This means that the firm will have to sell its rights to produce the paper to other firms that have the necessary infrastructure for industrial level production. It should be fascinating how this turns out since this is one of the greatest inventions in the education sector since the industrial production of paper. The new polymer may be content for news now, but it is wise for an institution to delay its use as the only medium for learning, especially since it shares many characteristics with paper. Apart from sustainability and environmental conservation, the polymer has all the other characteristics of paper, including bulkiness. Therefore, stakeholders should identify the main reasons for replacing paper and see if the new product satisfies these reasons. Step 10: Cast that story line into memo form that illustrates how the future may appear in that scenario. Explain why this alternative form is also a convenient way to present this scenario. The memo should be from the manager of an institution requesting all stakeholders to meet and discuss the way forward for the institution in the light of new developments. The memo should include the perceived advantages and disadvantages of adopting the new alternative, and the manager will summarize by requesting both internal and external stakeholders to do background research and send their views to the relevant office before the meeting. Using a memo to present a scenario is an effective way to think of the implications of a phenomenon before it occurs, which gives an institution the capacity to deal with the situation if it ever occurred. Step 11: Implications of the scenario write up 1. There may be other alternatives available, only that nobody has cared to consider them. 2. The adoption of one technology of the other does not end the problems and challenges facing the education sector. 3. If the sector adopts one technology or the other, there will be both advantages and disadvantages of doing so. 4. As the sector moves to implement changes, it should be clear on the effect it wants to achieve by those changes. 5. Consultations are a crucial component for effective management, to ensure that the concerns of all stakeholders are considered before making any far-reaching decisions. Step 12: Description of the lessons about the future acquired on doing this exercise:   There are numerous courses of action available if stakeholders look beyond the current situation. In addition, doing the exercise enables a person to discover a lot about a subject including the fact that there are many underlying factors determining the outcome of every decision. Finally, before adopting a certain line of action, it is necessary to consider that even the least expected of events may happen and change the outcome of the decision in its entirety. Read More