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Understanding how asset classes and systematic strategies behave and perform during different macroeconomic environments - Thesis Example

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The world economy is heavily characterized by cyclical performance which had raised concerns among researchers to suggest ways in which the turbulence in the economy can be avoided. Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is one of the most popular tools used by researchers to predict…
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Understanding how asset classes and systematic strategies behave and perform during different macroeconomic environments
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Understanding how asset classes and systematic strategies behave and perform during different macroeconomic environments

Download file to see previous pages... The CLI system uses a predefined system of indicators and uses their composite measure to predict the future economic activities. The movement of CLI is in the same direction of movement of the business cycle and they are specially designed to recognize the turning point. However, CLIs cannot be used to predict the intensity of recovery of the business cycle. The importance of this method has increased even more after the global financial crisis of 2008 as it has become very important for the policy makers, economists and other agents related to the business cycle to analyze the economic condition correctly (OECD, 2009).
In case of the CLI OECD indicators it has been observed that the CLI results are mainly used by the in-house users. Analysts have mainly used this method to determine the current state of the economy. This paper focuses on the use of CLI indicators in predicting the future pattern of economic growth in a number of economies. This is done by reviewing the existing literature. The final part of the paper focuses on the behaviour of the asset classes and its relation to the business cycle.
The CLI indicators was introduced in 1938 and has been modified a number of times to improve its efficiency over time. It has been stated that CLIs are mainly constructed by using reference series as it represents a composite of many other indicators. As in most of the other composite indicators Gross Domestic Product was expected to be one of the major indicators to be used as reference series in constructing CLI. However, in practice it has been observed that Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is taken as the primary reference series. The rationale behind involving IIP is that this is measured on a monthly basis whereas GDP is measured at a quarterly basis. It is for this reason that IIP is found to show the way in which GDP will behave in the subsequent months. In case of OECD countries the concept of leading ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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