Economics of the UAE - Case Study Example

? Economics of the UAE of the of the Introduction The Gulf Cooperating Countries (GCC) is among the fastest growing regions in the world. The GCC is made up of the six countries: Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. This region collectively owns 54% of the total reserve of conventional oil and gas reserves in the world known till date. Scientists expect to find large additional quantities of undiscovered and unproved reserves. According to reports by International Energy Outlook, energy consumption of the world would increase by more than 50% by the year 2030 from the 2008 figures, the average rate of increment being 1.6% per annum (Crescent, 2013). Fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) will remain the most supplied form of energy used throughout the globe. Hence this sector is an important source of economic growth for the gulf region. The structure of labour force also plays an important role in the economic development of any country. The structure of the UAE labour force has been studied in this paper and the pattern of expenditure of their income is investigated to assess the effect of labour force on the GCC economy. This paper analyses six articles on this issue and evaluates the findings to assess the process of economic growth of the GCC region. 1. The development and principal features of an oil economy The article by Issac John, titled, “Dubai government owned e-commerce website to expand in Gulf” published in Khaleej Times on 20 February 2013, explains this phenomenon. In 2011 GCC had a nominal GDP of US$1.4trilion (QNB, 2013). The economy of the GCC region is based on the oil reserves of the region and till present times it is known to have the largest reserves of crude oil in the whole world (approximately 486.8 billion barrels) (Gulfbase, 2013). While the OPEC countries together accounts for 70% of the total known crude oil reserves of the world, the GCC alone represent 35.7% of the total reserve. This region holds the topmost rank in producing and exporting petroleum in the world thereby generally assuming a primary role in the global economy, particularly in the OPEC. The GCC economy has increased in size almost three times in the period between 2002 and 2008. This shows that the seven countries in the GCC region (Ajman, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Al Fujayrah, Sharjah, Ras al Khaymah and Umm al Qaywayn) have reflected spectacular economic growth till mid 2008 (EIA, 2013). GCC countries account for 52% of the total OPEC oil reserves and 49% of the total OPEC crude oil production. The region is continuing its economic reform program, focusing on attracting domestic, regional and foreign private sector investment into oil & gas, power generation, telecommunications, and real-estate sectors. However, the slouch in the financial condition around the globe has brought about a slowdown in the economic status of the world which has slowed down the rate of investment in different development projects in this region. However, with the recent efforts made by all countries towards economic recovery is creating a quick rebound in the economic activities in the region (Gulfbase, 2013). According to analysts the combination of sluggish rise in global oil demand and rising market penetration by the non-OPEC countries might have a dampening effect on oil prices thereby limiting profits for the GCC countries in the near future. According to data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in June 2010 the quota compliance of UAE with the member countries of OPEC was re-adjusted (Kumar, 2010). Average export price of oil is estimated to rise marginally therefore declining in real terms. Export volumes would expand only by 1% annually till end of the decade. In the progression, contribution from the GCC countries would sum up to half of the total OPEC output and the “OPEC output as a share of global demand for oil is expected to decline from about 40 percent in 1995 to 37 percent by the end of the decade” (IMF, 2013). After making the compliance with OPEC, GCC pledged to cut output by 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Their oil output quota dropped to 53% of the total OPEC output and UAE production of oil “fell by 20,000 bpd” (Carlisle, 2010; Kumar, 2010). The UAE possesses nearly 10 per cent of the world’s total reserves, and however, it does not create any doubt that for several decades in the future, oil will remain a primary source of income and be a source of economic growth for the OPEC and GCC countries. In the upcoming years, natural gas is expected to take increasingly important position in the UAE’s development. It would act as a source of fuel for generating power in the manufacturing and other industries (Butt, n.d.). Abu Dhabi contains “the biggest deposit of oil” (Butt, n.d.) in the Emirates, followed by Dubai. Almost more than 85% of the “oil output capacity” (Butt, n.d.) of UAE is controlled by the Emirates. 2. Patterns of economic activity in the UAE from an oil based economy to development of the non-oil sector The article by Haseeb Haider, named, “UAE GDP to hit $395b” published in Khaleej Times on 15 May 2013, shows that The UAE contributes the major portion of the GDP of the Middle East economies. The construction industry and the growing tourism industry in Abu Dhabi and Dubai are growth boosting sectors for the UAE region. Incentives provided by the government to the private sector and huge public spending allows such growth (Haider, 2013). Strong growth of the non oil sector of Dubai has lead to good performance by the UAE in 2012. The non oil sector in Dubai includes the tourism sector, trade and services sector. The Abu Dhabi Council for Economic Development projected that non-oil economy in Abu Dhabi would grow by 54% by 2020 and further to 57% by 2030. Since the last decade Abu Dhabi has reformed its economy by encouraging participation of the private sector in various industrial, tourism and manufacturing activities. This is reflected in the increased contribution made by the private sector in the economy; private sector’s contribution in UAE’s gross domestic product would account for 33% of the total GDP showing an increase of 6.5% in 2012. The Abu Dhabi Council for Economic Development puts particular attention on "the emergence of new industries in Abu Dhabi” (UAEinteract, 2013). The gross domestic product of UAE is expected to fairly expand to $395 billion in the year 2013, if it grows at the rate of 3.6% (Haider, 2013). After the formation of the federal state, various sectors have been developed in the UAE. The construction industry has made significant contribution to the GDP of the UAE economy. There have been huge investments made by both the private enterprises and the public sector. The contribution of the construction sector as a percentage of GDP in UAE reached 10.3% in 2011, and is projected to reach 11.1% in 2015 and 11.5 per cent in 2021. Huge spending by the government on public projects in the construction industry and the real estate sector in Abu Dhabi as well as Dubai is the special factor that is capable of enhancing economic growth in UAE (Haider, 2013). According to a source, the non oil sector alone accounts for 49% of Abu Dhabi’s GDP (UAEinteract, 2013). The tourism sector in Dubai shows particularly good performance (Dubaitrade, 2013). The GCC tourists are one of the most important growth enhancing factors in the country. However, there are certain perceived risks in this form of economic growth. UAE faces a situation of regional instability which makes it selective in choosing the regulatory framework of the global trade regulations and GCC integration (Weforum, 2007). Freedom of banks is still restricted due to the risk of outside influences in the stage of globalization and internal instabilities, which affects the private sector investments. It hinders growth process to a significant extent. Political imbalances, regional protectionism within the federal system and environmental pressure like water scarcity pose a number of risks to smooth development of the country (Weforum, 2007). 3. Evaluate the role of the non-oil sectors on the UAE economy. Non oil trade in Dubai has shown significant improvements in 2012 and this improvement has been an outcome of the escalation in real estate business. Issac John in his article named “Dubai Q1 trade hits Dh326b” published in Khaleej Times on 15 May 2013 explains this phenomenon. Since the real estate business in Dubai is an important source of income in the country, it is a major sector and is also boosting up the other sectors in the economy, such as, the manufacturing sector, the industrial sector and the services sector. Non-oil trade in Dubai increased to Dh325.5 billion in 2012 (Banqueaudi, 2013). This indicates that real estate growth has started to improve significantly. The non hydrocarbon economy has been enhanced over the period of the last two years, since 2010, supported by the real estate growth. This growth has been backed by the strong trade sector, tourism sector, manufacturing sector and the logistics sector. Such diversification in the domestic economy plays a very important role in the economic performance of the UAE. Non-oil foreign trade of Dubai shot by 13 per cent in 2012 from Dh1.089 trillion in the previous year. Although non-oil business progresses in the region “has been holding up well in recent months” (John, 2013) growth in the export sector has not been exhibiting a sharp drop since April 2013. The UAE’s “HSBC purchasing managers index (PMI)” (Peopledaily, 2012), measures the Gulf States’ performance by the private non-oil sector. The PMI stayed at 53.8, since the month of September in 2012. Moreover, while the average PMI is 52. 7, the actual PMI measured in September was “above the series average” (Peopledaily, 2012). It is the fastest growth rate in non-oil output in a span of four months with only marginal price inflation. In this global environment that is pressed under recessionary pressure, this improvement in the non oil sector in the UAE economy would be capable of augmenting solid growth in the region (Peopledaily, 2012). The Government of UAE has pursued a strategy of creating business environment, which would be conducive to growth in economic terms. The success of this has made a major contribution in imparting the renowned status of international centre for trade to the country. UAE has also become known for financial services, which has attracted a number of reputed international companies. It has strengthened the country’s efforts to become an important business hub. The Emirates demonstrate a commendable model to the other economies in the world that are striving towards modernization economic development. Successive developments made in the economy include some noteworthy steps; “adoption of free market policies and regulations” (United Arab Emirates, 2012) is one of them. Free trade has lead to the diversification of channels of economic growth beyond the oil sector and has also paved the path for sustainable economic development. Foreign trade is perceived as the keystone to economic growth and the UAE has been paying considerable attention to its “foreign trade sector” (United Arab Emirates, 2012). The UAE firmly believes that to increase competitiveness and output efficiency in the long run “free trade is a necessary condition” (United Arab Emirates, 2012). Protectionism only leads to the creation of an ineffective private sector within the economy. Therefore, the country has adopted the policy of free trade characterised by “openness and harmony with international markets” (United Arab Emirates, 2012). It maintains synchronization with the member countries of the World Trade Organization. The economic strategy of UAE is founded with the aim of developing a, diverse, sustainable, competitive and flexible economy by utilizing the benefits of free trade. The bilateral agreements, regional agreements such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA), and the Doha Development Agenda (DDA), help the country to achieve its objective of developing its trade sector. As an effect of these trade agreements the GDP of the Emirates at current prices has increased from $247.8 billion in 2010 to $271.2 billion in 2012 (CIA, 2013). The cause of this rise has been analysed by economists to be the free trade patterns of the country at the time when average global price level of oil increased and also export level of the UAE was boosted (United Arab Emirates, 2012). Since oil price fell in 2009, real GDP growth rate of the Emirates was -1.6 percent. However, with the trade reforms, the growth rate recovered significantly and reached 1.3 percent in 2010 (CIA, 2013). In 2012, real GDP growth of the region has been pushed to 4.2 percent (with 6.6 percent growth in contribution from the oil sector and 3.1 percent growth in contribution from non oil sectors) (UAEinteract, 2013b). The set up of the free trade zones in the Emirates has rendered a promising edge to trade in the UAE. A number of benefits are enjoyed by the entrepreneurs that invest in the free trade zone. In the free trade zone of the Emirates, investors are eligible to receive “guaranteed tax holidays” (Shoult, 2006). Besides trade activities are also free of export or import duties. There are no exchange controls; no restrictions on profit, alongside the entrepreneurs also get rent-free office space, factory premises and warehouse space. They also get work permit for their expatriate staff (KPMG, 2006). Hence entrepreneurs consider it profitable to invest in the UAE; it is cost effective to make an investment in this area, or to indulge in trade with the countries in the Emirates. Free trade facility announces various schemes that facilitate foreign entrepreneurs to involve in business in the region and drags investors to the region. This is the cause that has enhanced trade of the gulf countries in the UAE. The Dubai Airport Free Zone, Dubai Internet City and Jebel Ali Free Zone are the major free trade zones in the country that are responsible for the non oil as well as oil sector growth in the country. 4. The impact of the labour force in the development of the UAE economy. Tom Arnold, in his article, “Expats to invest in UAE markets through funds” published in The National on 31 January 2010, explains that the gulf countries have a high population of expatriates in their labour force. The government has made efforts to develop mutual funds and pension funds so as to encourage the expatriates to make investments in the local markets of these countries thereby reducing trading volatility. The economy of the Emirates has been named as one of the most innovative and creative economies in the world for the seventh consecutive year (Internations, 2013). While the original labour force in the UAE is small, there has been massive inward migration of foreign workers in the country since the last four decades. Presently 80% of the labour force in UAE consists of expatriates (Internations, 2013). Female participation in the labour force is quite less (Shihab, n.d.). In order to increase indigenous population in the region’s labour force and reduce the dependence of foreign labour the government strives to increase female participation in the labour force. There is a small proportion of indigenous workforce participating in the economic activities in the region. On one hand the UAE region has reaped benefits from its diversified work force, which has led to better composition of the gulf work force and developed greater efficiency in the workforce. This has pushed the country to the position of one of the most creativity driven and advanced countries in the world. According to experts, by the year 2021, UAE is going to become one of the most advanced countries in the world (Internations, 2013). However, that these workers do not invest their incomes in the region is creating a problem in the economic performances of the region. In order to increase investment by the expatriates in the country in which they work, the respective governments in the Emirates have decided to open investment vehicles for foreign expatriates working in these countries, such as social security funds. This has been done to restrict the amount of wealth generated in the country that moves out to the other countries in the form of remittances. These workers would be encouraged to “put their savings in the market” (Arnold, 2010). 5. Future plans and strategies for UAE economic development. The article named, “Abu Dhabi announces results of economic horizons of Abu Dhabi 2012 - 2016 report” published in The National on 25 September 2010, explains that Abu Dhabi is one of the countries in the GCC that has cast significant effect on the economic development of the UAE region. The economy of the Emirate is undergoing the phase of significant transformation which leads to diversification of the way in which the strategic objectives of ‘Abu Dhabi economic vision 2030’ can be achieved. Oil revenue is a major source of fund that is providing the prospect of implementing the programmes for economic development and it is also seen as the probable source of future investment (UAEinteract, 2013c). In a span of 40 years, the country has shown marvellous progression; from a situation of lack of sealed roads and countable number of concrete buildings, the place has been transformed into “one of the most important modern economic centres” (Abudhabi, 2013) both within the UAE region and also in the whole world. This star growth rate is a manifestation of a long term vision of the leaders in the country and wise investment of the profits earned from the trade of oil, which is one of the most richly endowed natural resources in the region, for the development of the other sectors in the country. It has benefitted the people of the country and created long term economic benefits. Thus it can be said that oil sector is the most indispensible sector for the economy and its growth. Future strategies for growth of the economy should be based on the objective of broadening the sector specific activities in the economy of the Emirates. Some of the strategies that have to be followed for effective steps towards growth of the UAE economy have been mentioned below. The government has to focus on making the energy sector more diverse. Abu Dhabi is blessed with abundant hydrocarbon resources that have driven the rapid growth and development of the Emirate's economy. These resources will continue to provide investment, employment and industrial development in the region for a long time to come. “Abu Dhabi is a proven source” (Abudhabi, 2013) of energy in the Middle East and one of the most unfailing “providers of energy to the global community” (Abudhabi, 2013). This increases the responsibility of the nation’s government to develop sustainable development goals and policies that would support the achievement of these goals. However, another key concern of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council must be to leverage the well-built hydrocarbon sector of the Emirates, which would be able to stimulate economic diversification and help develop broader economic projects. These projects, in particular have to pertain to the two aspects; firstly, at the point of the whole economy of the country emphasis has to be laid on diversifying new industries that are growing in the economy on the support provided by the ongoing good performance of the country’s hydrocarbon sector. Secondly, at the sectoral level in the economy, improvement of the production capabilities at all sectors in the economy (as a result of the first stage of development) should be directed towards promotion of exports and increase the value addition made by exports by the non oil sector. Another aspect that deserves utmost attention in this era of globalization is the tourism sector. UAE boasts of some of the most exotic tourist places of the world. The potential of these places have to be realized adequately and steps have to be taken to make them some of the most sought after tourist destinations in the world. The yields made from the oil sector have to be invested with a precise vision in order to develop an unfaltering strategy to boost up the tourism sector. The countries in the UAE have to embark on a grand scale strategy that would attract a huge population of tourists to the Emirates. Recently the Emirate has adopted an ambitious policy that with the aim of attracting at least “3 million visitors per year by 2015” (Abudhabi, 2013). Tourism is critical to the development of the economies in the UAE since it leverages local resources, generates new opportunities for investment by the private sector and lift up the overall international standing of the Emirates. Both overseas tourism as well as domestic tourism has to be enhanced. The strategies to enhance tourism have to concentrate on the region’s cultural base, the quality of services offered in terms of facilities and luxury and the maintenance of the scenic beauty of the place. All these aspects work towards the final objective of establishing the different nations in the UAE, such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah or the other countries, as exclusive, world class and high end tourist destinations and “an idyllic place” (Abudhabi, 2013) for business as well as relaxation. The globalization plays a dual role in the process of economic growth. On one hand “increased globalization presents a potential threat” (ECC, 2011, p.2) for the private sector in both developed and developing countries. This is because these companies face stronger and at times cheaper competition from other countries that enjoy higher competitive advantage in some particular sector. On the other hand, globalization also presents potentially significant opportunities for trade and private investment. Since UAE has taken policies of free trade zones it enjoys increased levels of trade with several wealthy economies of the world, such as the US, the European countries as well as some of the Asian countries. This creates increased trade opportunities for trading with many new countries and generates “new market opportunities” (ECC, 2011, p.2). The private sector faces an inviting opportunity to invest in the nation in which it faces lesser trade barriers. Hence the governments of the UAE region have to strategize future growth objectives in a way that these would allow the utilization of the benefits of globalization and enhance the opportunities presented to the private sector for making higher levels of investment. The impacts of privation would be realized in massive forms of low cost exchange evolving from widespread property rights. It in turn leads to higher specialization and increased productivity. 6. The role of e-commerce and e-government in the economy of the UAE The article by Rory Jones, named, “Dubai government owned e-commerce website to expand in Gulf” published in Zawya on 17 March 2013, explains that e-commerce is one of the modern routes that is recognized as the growth booster for the free market economies. Online commerce provides newer avenues of marketing and delivery of goods throughout the target zone. Tejuri.com is an online provider that delivers “a wide range of products throughout the Gulf” (Jones, 2013). It aims to cover the whole of the Middle East region and the Northern part of Africa in five years time. The purpose of this online retailer’s expansion strategies is to tap the emerging market for e-commerce around the Middle East and Africa and help the existing ‘digital economy’ in the United Arab Emirates to grow further. According to a report, The UAE accounts for approximately 60 percent of the total sales of the GCC region and occupies the top position in the trends of expenditures incurred on e-Commerce in the region. Internet usage has added momentum to this trend. The GCC is expected to witness continuous development in its e-commerce and reflect a growth rate of 3.9 percent, which is more than the average growth rate of 3 percent (Amadlaw, 2013). The Information Communication Technologies (ICT) revolution that has affected the Middle East profoundly has played an important role in modernising the government organisations and strengthening the procedure of their functioning. The indices that measure the government’s e-governance status are “telecommunication infrastructure, maturity of e-services and participation of citizens in decision making and human resource availability to meet the requirements of offering e-government services” (Al-Khouri, 2011, p. 24). Government agencies in the UAE are increasingly depending on the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) to improve efficiency of the employees and integration between the partners of the government and the citizens. In this effort, modern government organizations are steadily getting transformed from their traditional “department centric model to a citizen centric model” for smooth delivery of their services. It enhances collaboration among different stakeholders of and departments within the organization thereby enabling swift decision making and speedy consensus. Conclusion The UAE is the sixth largest producer within OPEC (Butt, n.d.). This country is at moderate economic state which is attaining a balance between cost of production and level of price. This shows that a balance is drawn so as to satisfy consumers and producers alike. Oil and natural gas will remain one of the premium sources of income in the Middle East and a fuel for economic development of all economies around the world. An economy’s development is often measured by the level of demand for oil or fuel. While profoundly appreciating the success of the oil and gas sector in the economy and the opportunities offered by this sector, the Government has acknowledged the importance of the need to diversify the economic activities of the region. It is undoubted that, even after massive diversification, at present the prime factor behind the economic success of the Emirate is its oil and gas sector. It is a big source of economic growth for the OPEC and GCC countries. The government has to work strategically to utilize the yields received from the hydrocarbon sector for the development of the non oil sectors in the country. One of the crucial growth paths for the UAE is the development of the private sector. References Abudhabi. (2013). 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