Micro economics project about 4 articles (critical analysis) - Essay Example

These days, however, we’re facing another formidable foe. It’s called real estate. Investors (young and old) have a significant portion of their net worth invested in their homes, and we’re seeing more of them consider adding an income property to their portfolio. I wanted to see what we’re up against, so I put residential real estate through my usual research process. Just as I do with stocks and bonds, I looked at houses and condos from the perspective of economic fundamentals, valuation and market sentiment.

Starting with the economics, it would appear the supply side of the equation looks manageable (except maybe condos in Toronto). Housing starts have exceeded household formation for a decade, but the inventory of unsold homes is not excessive. The demand side, however, is less encouraging. What drives real estate over the long term is income growth (i.e. jobs). As Canada becomes less competitive in the global markets and our governments stop prescribing stimulus, employment trends arent too exciting.

In the meantime, our home ownership rate has gone from 62 per cent 15 years ago to 70 per cent today, slightly above the level attained in the U.S. in 2006. Still on the demand side, the demographic charts show the segment of the population that’s the strongest net buyer of houses (those aged 25 to 34) is about to start declining, while the pool of potential sellers (over 65) is continuing to increase. The situation is the opposite to what prevailed in the 70’s and 80’s when the early boomers had a huge wave of buyers following behind them.

While supply and demand factors are important, what’s really driving real estate these days is financing. Sellers can charge fancy prices when buyers are plugging 2 to 3 per cent into their mortgage calculators. But here too, the trends are worrisome. Rates have little room to drop (despite Bank of Montreal’s efforts) and consumer debt levels are now equivalent to the U.S. at its