The Place of Party Identification in Explaining Voting Behaviour in Australia - Assignment Example

Order No: 189351 Topic: Australia Voting and Elections Prepared By Dr. Zulfiquar Ahmed ID: 10131 10-11-2007 Order No: 189351 Topic: Australia Voting and Elections QUESTION 1: Give a critical analysis of the place of party identification in explaining voting behaviour in Australia. The concept of party identification was first put forward by Angus Campbel and his colleagues (1960) and soon became the foundation to the understanding of voting and citizen political behavior. It is gradually one of the most significant developments in public opinion research and voting behavior. Party identification does seem to be the main influence on Australian voting, especially when the interactions between issues, leader assessments and party identification are taken into account. (Charnock) There is a relationship between strength of identification and the chance of voting for the party. Identified with very strong identifiers people are more likely to vote in accordance with their identification and that identification is not very strong and is mostly influenced. Voters also have strategic choices. These are influenced by the number of votes they have been allocated, the way preferences may be ordered, and the manner of distributing votes among the candidates. Party identifiers influence the voters to take their decisions earlier and those people who take their decision earlier are often determined about their voting and they don't feel hesitation. Voting behavior in Australia is also influenced through developing a retrospective view which emerges from an assessment of several social, economical and political issues. A view or assessment on a particular issue helps the voters taking their decisions. So the comments of a party leader, his view on especial issue, the decision taken by him, party philosophy change the voter's mentality. The decisions, changes and reforms taken by the previous government make deep impression in the voting behavior of Australian citizens. Different electoral systems can prompt different voting behavior. It cannot be assumed that every voter would support the same party under one system as another. Since around the middle of the 1960s, one of the most important elements of electoral politics in almost all advanced, democratic industrial societies has been the noticeable weakening of party identification. The various aspects of party identification have already influenced and are influencing the elections of Australia time to time and the share of power which is responsible various political events. For example, in 1996, however, there was a notable drop in the level of identification with the ALP, but no corresponding rise for the Coalition. In 1998 the level of identification with the ALP recovered slightly but then declined again in 2001 (to a level slightly below that of even 1996) and even further in 2004. The level of identification with the Coalition parties has remained relatively constant at around 40 per cent since 1979 and the result has also followed consecutive effects. For another instance, it can be mentioned the possibility that the increased measured level of party identification for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in 1987 may have been a result of this question-wording effect (though even if true, this still would account for only a part of the effect). There may also have been an electoral system effect resulting from the Australian use of exhaustive preferential voting (Charnock). It has long been suspected that the order in which candidates' names are placed on a ballot somehow influences the decision-making process of voters. Theories of ballot position have suggested, variously, that candidates benefit from being placed first on the ballot, due to a 'primacy effect', or last on the ballot, due to a 'recency effect' (Koppell and Steen, 2004). Party identification has various aspects as for it influence the voters to support minor parties and independent candidates, knowing that their preferences may be used to decide the winner. Thus, votes for minor parties and independents are not wasted. QUESTION 2. What are the main aspects of electoral systems which party systems Outline how the Australian party system is influenced by the electoral system. The following main aspects of electoral systems which influence party systems (Duverger, 1972): (1) a majority vote on one ballot is conducive to a two-party system; (2) proportional representation is conducive to a multiparty system; and (3) a majority vote on two ballots is conducive to a multiparty system, inclined toward forming coalitions. Even when a single ballot system operates with only two parties, the one that wins is favored, and the other suffers. The first one is over-represented--its proportion of seats is greater than its percentage of the votes-while the party that finishes second is usually under-represented--its proportion of seats is smaller than its percentage of the votes. In a system of proportional representation, the situation is quite different. The very principle of proportional representation explains the multiplicity of parties it produces. Since every minority, no matter how weak it may be, is assured of representation in the legislature, nothing prevents the formation of splinter parties, often separated only by mere shades of opinion. In a system in which elections arc decided by a majority vote on the second of two ballots, political parties are numerous because the existence of a second ballot permits each party to test its chances on the first one without risking irrevocable defeat through the splintering of parties holding similar views; the regrouping occurs on the second ballot through the game of "withdrawals." The exact role of the electoral system seems to be that of an accelerator or that of a brake. An election by a majority vote on a single ballot has a dual effect: first, it poses an obstacle to the appearance of a new party, although this obstacle is not insurmountable (the role of a brake); secondly, it tends to eliminate the weakest party (or parties) if there are more than two (the role of an accelerator). Proportional representation plays just the opposite role. It does not slow down the development of new parties. It passively registers their appearance, sometimes amplifying the vibrations they generate, like an echo chamber or a seismograph. The results of the two-ballot majority system are similar to those of proportional representation, with a few differences. The two-ballot system seems to be more discouraging to the formation of new parties than proportional representation (but it is far less effective in this than the single-ballot majority vote). Perhaps it is also more helpful to older parties, but it is difficult to formulate any definite conclusions in this matter. Furthermore, it seems to present a certain barrier to brusque changes of political opinion, to movements reflecting momentary moods or impulses, to political groups that are "fashionable" but ephemeral (even though the example of the UNR [Union Nouvelle pour la Republique, the Gaullist party] in 1958 proved to be of a different kind: but the circumstances in this instance were very special). The sharpest difference with the system of proportional representation concerns electoral alliances, A coalition system par excellence, the two ballot regime can sometimes permit the formation of a dual system of alliances, introducing a sort of two-party system in the midst of a multi-party situation. This phenomenon was quite evident in France during the Third and the Fifth Republics, and in Germany from 1870 to 1914. Having said all this, the fact remains that a change in the electoral system does not always have a decisive influence on the existing party system. However, it seems certain that if proportional representation were to replace the majority vote in Great Britain, a three-party system would appear before very long, making party splits within the ranks of the Labourites and the Conservatives much more likely. The influence of a one-ballot vote in maintaining an already established two-party system is beyond question. It is much less certain that the adoption of such an electoral system would destroy an already existing multiparty system and, for example, reduce to two the number of parties in France or Italy. In any event, a reform of this nature is inconceivable, because an election determined by a majority vote on a single ballot gives rise to unforeseen results when more than two parties are involved. Yet in the German Federal Republic and in Austria, such an electoral reform would very likely hasten the trend, already underway, toward a two-party system. Above all, it would prevent any move in the opposite direction by posing a serious obstacle to possible splits within the two major parties, and would also discourage the revival of small political parties. Possessing the proportional representation theory influences party system as the parties for their own benefit initiate several strategies including party reform. For example, we see that the increasing significance of the newer parties has prompted someRe-examination of the adequacy of the traditional Left-Right interpretation of electoral politics, with Jackman (1998) and Weakliem and Western (1999) being tworecent prominent examples. The ALP was very elect orally successful in the 1980s and early 1990s, winning five consecutive federal elections and being in Government from 1983 to 1996. This was achieved at the same time as it introducedsome quite profound changes in its economic policies, including the privatization of significant components of the public sector. One aspect of the explanation for its success is undoubtedly its adaptation to the changes associated with the postmodern dimension studied here. At the same time, structural aspects of the electoral system (particularly compulsory voting and voter registration, and the use of full preferential voting systems) helped to reduce the slippage of less postmodern voters away from the party (Charnock). Electoral system factors have been important in maintaining Australian party identification levels. The frequency of elections (at least every three years for federal elections, plus state elections with the same parties involved), combined with compulsory voting, which keep parties attentive regarding the interest of the voters. So party structures are changed to meet the challenge and this is basically an example of the influence of electoral system. Alternative (preferential) vote is also another important aspect of electoral system which emerges the party system favorable for general voters. So these are the various aspects of the electoral process of Australia that influence the party system. QUESTION 9. Discuss whether the performances of the One Nation Party and the Greens at recent federal elections are best described as indications of realignment or of dealignment in the Australia Party System. This is usually referred to as the process of and dealignment, and has been very widespread. A related concept in the study of electoral change is that of realignment, where tile balance of the party loyalties of voter's switches, either between existing parties or towards new ones. The key to the matter is the question whether the performance of the One Nation Party and the Greens should be taken the decline in class voting as an indication of structural dealignment or realignment. If dealignment is taking place, old ties between cleavages, such as class, and electoral behavior diminish or disappear without new ties appearing in their place. Apart from fact that class has not lost its relevance for voting behavior, those arguing that there is a process of dealignment going on suggest that there are no new electoral ties emerging. Van der Eijk et al. for example suggest that '(t)he most salient feature of the political landscape that emerges with the end of cleavage politics is precisely the fact that it has no clear universal features' (Van der Eijk et al. 1992: 430), thus concluding that the decreasing influence of class on voting behavior is signifying dealignment. Instead, politics will be less a matter of stable alignments, and more unpredictable.for example in the election of 1996 national party of Australia got a swing of 1.07 and on the other hand the green party made a swing of 1.06.here we see a full fledge implementation of realignment. In this context some speak of 'fluid', 'wobbling' or 'floating' electorates, which means that people can now 'begin to choose' whatever party they prefer without considerations of class or of other social cleavages (Rose and McAllister 1986). In this context, Pakulski and Waters speak of the emergence of 'choice politics' (1996: 132-148). Others suggest that the declining relationship between class and voting signifies a process of realignment: the old cleavages are gradually being replaced by other (new) cleavages, accompanied by their own political alignments (Elchardus, 1996). There is, though, some disagreement about the exact nature of the cleavages that are becoming electorally important. Some argue that there are no structural cleavages and that the main political fault-line is that of values (Inglehart 1997a). In general, it should be easier for new parties to establish themselves in proportional representation electoral systems (generally involving multimember electoral districts) than in single-member systems. An exception to this would be where a new party's support was geographically concentrated. In Australia, the development after World War I of what is now the National Party was a good example of this. Here an example of the statistics of the election of 1998 .Here we see that the minor party namely Pauline Hanson's One Nation gained 8.1% vote though they are a newly formed party .this is in fact a sign of realignment. In contrast, although the Australian Democrats obtained a higher vote in the House of Representatives in 1990 than did the National Party and have polled quite well in some other elections, they have never won any seats in that House. They did, however, hold the balance of power in the Senate (with its multi-member districts) throughout almost all of the 1980s and extending into the 1990s. Similar comments apply to the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) from the mid-1950s through to the early 1970s. The situation of Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party at the 1998 election also had some similarities, although its failure to obtain preferences from any other significant party meant that their Senate representation was much lower than'these other minor parties. The Greens also obtain higher representation in PR systems (such as that used in the Senate). In these circumstances, minor parties are proliferating in many countries, and in all countries the major parties are tending to lose votes. What the niche parties have in common is profiles of demographic support that are very distinctive. Thus, Democrats and Greens are far more likely to receive the votes of the young than either major party in Australia, a phenomenon repeated for green parties elsewhere. It is unlikely that this trend will be reversed because social group identities, which previously gave voters social cues about voting, are becoming more diverse and less stable. The result is a volatile electorate, increasingly fragmented along issue lines. Democrats and Greens are far more likely to receive the votes of the young than either major party in Australia, a phenomenon repeated for green parties elsewhere. The new mechanism of cultural voting can also be tied to the emergence of new political parties to the left and right end of the political spectrum. . Under majoritarian systems, supporters of minor and fringe parties with geographic support dispersed widely but thinly across the country, like the Greens, may feel that casting their votes will make no difference to who wins in their constituency, still less to the overall composition of government and the policy agenda. Therefore the type of electoral system may play an important role in helping to explain the timing of the process of dealignment, and the underlying conditions in which this occurs, although as a static theory the incentive-based 'top-down' theory cannot by itself satisfactorily explain the process of decline per se, unless the workings of the electoral system alter in important ways. References Charnock David, "Question-Wording Effects on the Measurement of Nonpartisanship: Evidence from Australia"School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, WA 6001, Australia. Dalton, Russel J. 1988. Citizen Politics in Western Democracies; Public Opinion and Political Parties in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, and France. Catham: Catham House Publishers. Duverger, Maurice. "Factors in a Two-Party and Multiparty System," in Party Politics and Pressure Groups (New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1972), pp. 23-32. Elchardus, Mark. 1996. "Class, Cultural Re-Alignment and the Rise of the Populist Right." Pp. 41-63 in Changing Europe: Some Aspects of Identity, Conflict and Social Justice, edited by A. Erskine. Aldershot: Avebury. Inglehart, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and Postmodernization; Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 Societies. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. Knutsen, Oddbjorn. 1995. "The Impact of Old Politics and New Politics Value Orientations on Party Choice- A Comparative Study." Journal of Public Policy 15:1-63. Koppell, J.G.S. and Steen, J.A. (2004), 'The effects of ballot position on election outcomes', The Journal of Politics 66(1), 267-281. Pakulski, Jan, and Malcom Waters. 1996. "The Reshaping and Dissolution of Social Class in Advanced Society." Theory and Society 25:667-691. Pakulski, Jan, and Malcom Waters. 1996. The Death of Class. London/ Delhi: Sage. Rose, Richard, and Ian McAllister. 1986. Voters Begin to Choose: From Closed Class to Open Elections in Britain. Beverly Hills: Sage. Van der Eijk, Cees, Mark N. Franklin, Thomas T. Mackie, and Henry Valen. 1992. "Cleavages, Conflict Resolution and Democracy." Pp. 406-431 in Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in WesternCountries, edited by Mark N. Franklin, Thomas T. Mackie, and Henry Valen. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Read More