Threats confronting the U.S. in 2030 - Assignment Example

Threats Confronting the U.S. in 2030 “Global trends 2030; Alternative Worlds” is a report by the National intelligence council that aims at stimulating thinking about the rapidly changing global geopolitical environment in view of the changes that characterize the world today. Contrary to popular belief, no doubt spurred by its futuristic inclination, the report does not deign to predict the future but rather to provide a blueprint through which possible scenarios and their implications may be considered in posterity (Achenbach, 2012).

Among the mega trends discussed, megatrend 4 is one of the most significant; it deals with growing food, water and energy nexus (Marien, 2013). According to the report, demand for these resources will likely grow by over 40% owing to the rapidly expanding global population, it is postulated that these demand will become difficult and in some places impossible to address. Shortages are likely to be caused by a variety of factors that are already in play today such as rapid negative climate change and the possibility of an energy crisis resulting from dying up of oil and other natural energy deposits.

These changes are expected to affect the Middle East and Africa especially in regard to water, these regions already have water problems today and it is thus not difficult to predict that without drastic policy changes both therein and globally, the trend will continue to its logical conclusion; which is the water and food crisis. Another of the issues that are to be found in the report has to do with economic revolution in which the dominance of traditionally superior nations and blocks such as the US and EU may challenge.

America may not necessarily be the economic super power it has been since the end of the cold war by the year 2030. The report suggests that China, owing to its rapid per-capita growth and industrialization, could overtake the USA to become the world’s leading financial powerhouse. The EU could also suffer from the possible withdrawal of Greece in the aftermath of the pre-2008 financial crisis from which it is still trying to recover, nevertheless, the report suggests that should Greece decide to withdraw, that could be disastrous for the bloc and may even result in a collapse.

Recent history and current events have shown how the use of communication technology has enabled people to challenge governments, especially despotic ones and resulted in the toppling of several autocrats such as Egypt’s Mubarak and Gadaffi. While the reports predicts citizens may have more power to reach such ends in posterity it posits a corollary; governments will also have an increased ability to monitor citizens and their activities through the same media and could turn them into oppression or control tools.

The growth of science and technology is likely to bring about hitherto unknown albeit imagined technology such as 3D printing among others, this and other technological discoveries will result in reduction of demand for human labor. Consequently, outsourcing will become redundant with time and this could lead to the reduction of incomes for countries that have in the past benefited and depended greatly on the same such as India and China. These will be forced to explore alternative ways to boost their incomes so as to achieve financial independence.

ReferencesAchenbach, J. (2012, Dec 11). Global trends 2030: Megatrends vs. game-changers (. The Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/achenblog/wp/2012/12/11/global-trends-2030-megatrends-vs-game-changers/ Marien, M. (2013). Global trends 2030: Alternative worlds. Cadum, 1(6), 160-167. National Intelligence Council. (2012) Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Retrieved 9 September 2013, from http://www.scribd.com/doc/115962650/Global-Trends-2030-Alternative-Worlds