Analysis of Egyptian Elections - Essay Example

Task: Egyptian Elections In the recent two years, the Arab world has witnessed rapid-fire revolutions and protests taking the form of people setting themselves ablaze to violent wave of revolutions. Similarly, most Arab world citizens have shocked the world in their new consciousness toward critical issues such as human rights violations, extreme poverty, skyrocketing unemployment rates and massive government corruption among others. Among the nations that felt, what experts came to call Arab Spring, include Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Egypt among others. Therefore, the main intention of this essay is to predict the person who will win the Egypt elections of May 23 and 24 while giving evidence on why the person stands that chance (Angrist 78). Similarly, this paper traces the history of the Middle East concerning matters of political, economical and even social nature. Additionally, the discussion delves into the driving factors of the Arab Spring and the lessons the new president of Egypt should learn (Lesch 43). Furthermore, this essay is going evaluate the different forms of regimes and democracies practiced in the Arab nations such as Islamic Republic, absolute monarchies, liberal democracies and competitive authoritarianism among others. Therefore, the president I have predicted is Amr Moussa and below explain why. In the forthcoming Egyptian elections, there are fundamental issues in the context of elections that merit a discussion. Similarly, in making truthful predictions of the president and party, which are likely to ascend to power, other paramount considerations of the long journey Egyptian citizens, have travelled, should be noted down. On that account, this essay is going to look briefly at the history of the Middle East of which Egypt is a member and how it has come to be in the modern history in the context of development. For instance, it is a well known that civilization begun in Middle East in the period of 3500 BC, namely in Mesopotamia, which is currently in Iraq and ancient Egypt. Similarly, ancient Egypt facilitated the spread of civilization along the Nile River valley which was led by the Pharaohs in order to bring change (Lust 123). Similarly, before making a prediction concerning the elections that are on May 23 and 24, 2012, this essay highlights the different phases of history Egypt has endured. These include the prehistoric Egypt and Ancient Egypt that was characterized with kingdoms from 31 to 1070 BC. Furthermore, this period marked the beginning of a monarchy where Pharaohs practiced authoritarian leadership upon their citizens. After Ancient Egypt, came the Greco-Roma Egypt where Egypt began trading with other worlds to acquire economic autonomy. After the Greco-Roma Egypt came the Medieval Egypt and, finally, Modern Egypt, which was begun in 1882 until the ouster of Hosni Mubarak (Eva 153). In other words, the paper attempts to link the transition of the forthcoming elections with the past regimes of Egypt and how to chart a way forward. However, when we study at the history of the modern Middle East, there are critical issues that are worth mentioning to understand the situation. For example, it has metamorphosed into a zone of conflict where democracy does not exist but instead authoritarian monarchs persecute the people. Such countries include Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain among others that have been affected. For countries that practice democracy such as Iran and Egypt, the elections are always flawed with leaders extending their political terms to their advantage, which only breeds violence (Lesch 47). As a result, this has spawned liberal democracies where the real fruits of democracy are not enjoyed but trampled upon by the leaders. On that note, countries that practice of democracy include Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Israel among others. Egypt under the former president, Hosni Mubarak, was also known to practice competitive authoritarianism where he exercised coercive tactics to win elections despite the efforts of the opposition. However, international scholars wonder why countries such as Egypt and Iran among other Middle East nations are stuck in monarchies and other false models of democracies that bring no development. There are few answers although Middle East culture is considered monarchical and democracy as is a western thing that only corrupts the people. Additionally, others posit it is because of modernization, ethnic fractionalization and cultural factors in the region (Diamond 96). Furthermore, other theories include the Arab-Israeli conflict, different conflicts (anxiety between North and South Korea) and the curse of the natural resource which is oil. Others include issues of inept judiciary, media, legislature and the civil society among other groups that should be responsible in challenging authority. Therefore, this brings us to how this continuation of authoritarian rule can be stopped or how citizens of the Arab world are making efforts to halt it. For instance, there have been suggestions that it can be stopped if oil prices drop or a change in the US policy directed towards conditional assistance in nations such as Iran, Iraq and Egypt among others (Carothers 18). Similarly, others dream of a united Arab nation enjoying democracy which will stop Islamic Republics such as Iran and others from adopting despotic governments. This drives the essay to Arab Spring that saw several of Arab leaders ousted by their people in a bid to restore democracies. These countries include Tunisia that lit the first Arab Spring fire, Libya, Yemen, and Egypt that overthrew its president Hosni Mubarak. Therefore, Arab Spring was a revolutionary wave that took the form of both peaceful and violent demonstrations and protests taking place in most Arab nations starting on December 2010. Other countries that were affected include Syria, Algeria, Bahrain and Iraq among other Arab nations (Hamid 56). Several factors that triggered the Arab Spring include absolute monarchy as witnessed in Yemen and Morocco, violations of human rights, abject poverty among a majority of citizens and decline in economic development. In addition, factors of unemployment and structural factors of demography also motivated the youth to revolt against their systems. Hence, predictions about who is going to win the forthcoming elections must be focused in addressing the aforementioned issues that triggered the Arab Spring. Similarly, a newly elected president will have to start addressing the pressing issues of human rights violations and government corruption that were synonymous with the regime of Hosni Mubarak. On that aspect, whether it is Amr Moussa, Hazem Salah Abu Ismail or even Bothaina Kamal among other presidential contenders, they must tackle the challenges that saw the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak. In other words, if it is the Freedom and Justice Party or the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces that assumes power on May 23 in case of no runoff; it must strive for regional growth (Angrist 81). Any of the leaders who win the presidency must also ensure the oil profits of the country are distributed for the benefit of all. This brings us to the issue of intra-regional variation in the context of economic performance and well-being of its citizens. This means if Amr Moussa beats the other candidates being the most popular candidate, he has to formulate National Economic Plan (NEP) and other related economic policies to chart the way for the country (Lust 156). This will involve working with other leaders who are also vying for the position of the presidency in order to integrate different ideas for political, economic and socio-cultural development. On that note, the candidate most likely to win is Amr Moussa because of several reasons that I will state here (Lesch 49). For instance, his political ratings have been the highest from February 2011 that were at 49% to a steady decline at 38.9% in November, 2011 compared to that his closest rival Bothaina Kamal. His opponent had 9% during February 2011 with a decline of 6% during November 2011 polling rating. Amr Moussa, who is a former minister and ex-Secretary General of the Arab League of Arab States, will most likely incorporate his vast experience in international matters on the president position. His experiences as the former secretary of Arab League of Nations will also facilitate in identifying the areas that other Arab nations have either excelled or failed. Similarly, having served in the former regime of Hosni Mubarak, Amr Moussa understands the problems that triggered the Egyptians to oust their president and demand for the return of rule of law. Furthermore, this presidential contender whom I have predicted to the May 23 and 24 elections served as a diplomat for many years in many countries and have the power to marshal political and economic resources for rebuilding Egypt (Hamid 63). Notable areas that he will ask for support include the UN and Switzerland among other nations. In summary, the fundamental shift in the thinking of the citizens of the Arab world is paramount to making the world a global village. This is because the Arab world has demonstrated to the entire world that human rights violations; extreme poverty and government corruption are present even in nations that have oil which is a characteristic for most Arab countries. Similarly, by organizing revolutions and protests, the people of the Middle East have demonstrated a desire to be helped by other countries in terms of rebuilding their institutions such as the media, legislature and judiciary among others (Carothers 20). Furthermore, the coming elections of Egypt are a clear indicator that finally the citizens are being heard. Works Cited Angrist, Michele P. Politics and Society. Mason, OH: Lynne Rienner Publishers. 2010. Print. Carothers, Thomas. “The End of the Transitions Paradigm.” Journal of Democracy 13.1(2002):5-21. Print. Diamond, Larry. “Why Are There No Arab Democracies?” Journal of Democracy, 21.1 (2010): pp. 93-112. Print. Eva, Bellin. “The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East.” Comparative Politics 36.2 (2011): 139-157. Print. Hamid. The Arab Awakening: Islamists and the Brotherhood: Political Islam and the Arab Spring. Massachusetts, D.C: Brookings Press. 2011. Print. Lesch, Ann. “Egypt’s Spring: Causes of the Revolution.” Middle East Policy. 18.3 (2011): 35-48. Print. Lust, E. The Middle East. New York, NY: CQ Press. 2010. Print. Read More