Mexico Population Pyramid in 2013 vs 2050 - Essay Example

? Population Pyramids for Mexico – and 2050 Introduction Various assessments on the projections of population growth have aimed to present, explain and analyze effectively the changes in demographic trends, annual growth rates, life expectancy and population distribution over a significant period of time. The purpose of this assignment is to critically analyze the population pyramids for Mexico for the current year and for 2050. In doing so, the course of the research is directed towards comparing the designated population pyramids on the basis of various appropriate and relevant variables, discussing the population theories and factors to explain the variations in the population pyramids and determining whether the pyramid for 2050 depicts “zero population growth” or “negative growth”. Comparison of Mexico’s Population Pyramids for 2013 and 2050 According to Merill (2012), a population pyramid is a highly significant tool utilized by researchers and analysts alike to present the distribution of age groups for males and females in the form of an illustration. This depiction of the statistics allows for an effective comprehension of the variables that are associated with demographic factors and their comparisons over a period of time. Mexico’s population pyramid for the year 2013 can be best described as an expansive pyramid, where the broad base of the pyramid is indicative of a large population of infants, children, teenagers and youngsters such that the most common age groups with the highest population of males and females are 0 – 4, 5 – 9, 10 – 14, 15 – 19 and 20 – 24. Furthermore, as the pyramid approaches towards its tip and progresses in the direction of older age groups the graph evidently represents a gradual decline in the number of inhabitants. This notion indicates that the shape of the population pyramid is observable as a perfect pyramid rather than a constrictive or stationary pyramid represented by inverted or jagged shapes. For the year 2013, the age group with the greatest proportion of population is that of 15 – 19, that is the individuals born in the period 1994 to 1998. Moreover, the age group which constitutes of the smallest proportion of the population is that of 100+ which are the males and females born in 1913 and earlier. On the contrary, Mexico’s population pyramid for 2050 presents a stark contrast from that of 2013. The proportion of the population falling under the age brackets ranging from 0 – 4 to 55 – 59 depicts a greater level of consistency than 2013, in which the progress of age groups in the population pyramid coincided with a decline in the members of the population belonging to that age group. Additionally, the number of males and females aged 65+ is also projected to increase by a significant percentage for Mexico in the year 2050 however, this proportion declines noticeably towards the tip of the pyramid. While, the population pyramid for 2050 still has a broad base this scenario does not imply that the population is getting younger because the proportion of individuals in their 40s and 50s is also increasing by a similar size. Despite of the evident differences in the representations of the population pyramids for 2013 and 2050, the age groups with the largest proportion of the population and the smallest proportion of the population have remained the same. Therefore, the largest age group of 15 – 19 represents males and females born in the period lasting from 2031 to 2035 while, the age group with the smallest proportion of the population which is individuals aged 100+ represents inhabitants born in 1950 and earlier. Population Theories and Factors Associated With Differences in Population Pyramids The general patterns describing the population distribution of Mexico in 2013 and 2050 indicate that the proportion of the population that is young (infants, children, teenagers and young adults) has remained somewhat consistent in both comparisons which accounts for the broad base of both population pyramids. Southgate (2009) notes that the factors associated with the demographic trend being observed in Mexico have also been witnessed on a global scale. This notion can be described by the term of demographic momentum as a consequence of which the number of births surpasses the number of deaths, while, the number of births per women continues to decline in countries such as Mexico (Southgate 2009). This view is also echoed in the research conducted by Sanchez and Pacheco (2012) who state that, “...fertility rates began to decline significantly in Mexico from the mid-1970s”. According to Southgate (2009) the average number of children per woman in Mexico stands at 2.2. Hence, the applicability of the phenomenon of demographic momentum to the scenario is that as more women enter their reproductive years any initiatives taken by governmental organizations to control the population or a decline in fertility rates itself is nullified by the proportion of women who have reached childbearing age. For example, the proportion of the female population aged between 0 – 4 in 2013 would belong to the age group of 37 – 41 in 2050, which are the years in which a woman can reproduce. Moreover, the rise in individuals belonging to ages of 30 – 50 in the year 2050 can also be attributed to this phenomenon despite of a steady decline in fertility rates in Mexico. The phenomenon of “zero population growth” or “negative growth” An assessment of the population pyramid for 2050 is reflective of the fact, that Mexico will not observe “zero population growth” or “negative growth” in the year 2050. This notion can be derived from the observation which indicates that the number of males and females who are aged 0 – 4 will rise in 2050 from the year 2013, if not by a considerable margin. Furthermore, the proportion of older Mexicans is also expected to increase as per the population pyramid of 2050 which shows that the number of citizens aged between 65 – 69, 70 – 74, 75 – 79, 80 – 84, 85 – 89, 90 – 94, 95 -99 and 100+ will increase by 2050. This remark suggests that Mexico’s death rate is expected to decline by year 2050, while, the proportion of young people continues to rise. The consequence of this phenomenon and demographic trend goes against the concepts of zero demographic growth and negative demographic growth which represent a scenario in which death rate equals birth rate or in which death rate surpasses birth rate respectively. References Merrill, R. M. (2012). Fundamentals of Epidemiology and Biostatistics: Combining the Basics. Jones & Bartlett Publishers. Sanchez, L., & Pacheco, E. (2012). Rural Population Trends in Mexico: Demographic and Labor Changes. In International Handbook of Rural Demography (pp. 155-168). Springer Netherlands. Southgate, D. (2009). Population growth, increases in agricultural production and trends in food prices. The Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development,1(3), 29-35. Read More